All Things 2024 Minnesota Vikings Off-Season Thread

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MplsGopher said:
This x1000

So friggin stupid to trade future firsts for a chance to draft the next Mac Jones or Justin Fields.

If you get it organically, fine.
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Weren’t you the one praising KC for trading up to get Mahomes? They gave up a future first to do it.
 



GFBfan said:
Weren’t you the one praising KC for trading up to get Mahomes? They gave up a future first to do it.
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I praised them for not tanking, as the board cowards were clamoring for.

Obviously it worked out for KC. And they "only" moved up to 10.

The hit rate on doing it has to be around 5%? Just an incredibly stupid move to give away first rounders, statistically speaking
 


GopherWeatherGuy said:
I don't think they'll actually do that, so they will do whatever else they need to do to move into the top 4.
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Even if just the 11 and 23 for the 4, incredibly stupid move. And if needing to give more than that, just makes it exponentially worse.

Waste two opportunities to draft defense, to draft the next Mac Jones? F'ing stupid a__holes.

I hope Flores threatens to quit, to block it.
 

gophersfan said:
To me the Vikings trading for the 23rd pick tell me they doing to package that and the 11 to get to the 3rd or 4th pick.
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Not good enough for third and the team there wants a QB. Zero chance for Maye. Can't get him.

4th maybe, but I was the 4th team knowing as objective fact that we're doing it for a QB -- reeking of desperation -- I'd force them to give more, knowing the Vikings have zero leverage.

Just an awful, awful move, to draft JJM "Mac Jones 2".
 

MplsGopher said:
Even if just the 11 and 23 for the 4, incredibly stupid move. And if needing to give more than that, just makes it exponentially worse.

Waste two opportunities to draft defense, to draft the next Mac Jones? F'ing stupid a__holes.

I hope Flores threatens to quit, to block it.
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Vikings working on the defense through free agency, There is a reason why they made the trade for the 23rd pick. So they can package the 11 and 23rd to get into the top 4. There 1st pick has to be on a franchise QB. No Bo Nix or Penix JR please. it has to be one of the top 4. They really want Drake Mayes over JJ McCarthy. Mayes fit KOC offense nicely and don't claim these top 4 qb will be bust when you have no facts or statements to prove it.
 





gophersfan said:
Vikings don't need defense,
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LOL! You just disqualified yourself from speaking further about the team's needs, as you clearly didn't watch games at the end of last season. The defense was a disaster, and no the three vets they signed won't come close to fixing it all.

gophersfan said:
They really want Drake Mayes over JJ McCarthy.
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I respect the idea of drafting Maye far more than JJM. You're still only talking Trevor Lawrence as opposed to Mac Jones, but still respectable. However, there's no reasonable path to him, unless they do something just plain barbaric. Like auto-fireable.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Yes he does.

But, excuse me, I have to ask….

Are you bald or thinning (comb over area code)?

Your borderline obsession with men’s hair, beg’s the question.
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giphy.gif
 








MplsGopher said:
I praised them for not tanking, as the board cowards were clamoring for.

Obviously it worked out for KC. And they "only" moved up to 10.

The hit rate on doing it has to be around 5%? Just an incredibly stupid move to give away first rounders, statistically speaking
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I wonder what the hit rate actually is? I don't know if this is comprehensive, but it doesn't paint a great picture of moving up. I only see Mahomes as having been a long term success. Many were out and out busts. Some temporarily a success, like Wentz, only to bust. Would the Rams still trade up for Goff? They probably would have had the same success with a decent FA vet.

www.google.com

NFL Draft 2023: What the past decade says about moving up for a quarterback, plus some trade hypotheticals

There have been 32 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2011
www.google.com www.google.com
 

www.google.com

NFL Draft 2023: What the past decade says about moving up for a quarterback, plus some trade hypotheticals

There have been 32 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2011
www.google.com www.google.com

Here's another article on trading up. There's surprisingly few instances of trading into the top 10 or top 5 to grab a QB.

www.google.com

NFL Draft 2023: What the past decade says about moving up for a quarterback, plus some trade hypotheticals

There have been 32 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2011
www.google.com www.google.com
 

Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, RGIII, Mark Sanchez, Michael Vick, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Steve Bartkowski. These are the QBs selected by teams trading into the top 5 to select a QB. Yikes.
 

swede2 said:
Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, RGIII, Mark Sanchez, Michael Vick, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Steve Bartkowski. These are the QBs selected by teams trading into the top 5 to select a QB. Yikes.
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When you were looking that up how many teams that traded-up got someone who worked out? Or didn't you find anybody who did?
 

swede2 said:
Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, RGIII, Mark Sanchez, Michael Vick, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Steve Bartkowski. These are the QBs selected by teams trading into the top 5 to select a QB. Yikes.
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Bartkowski could really sling it but what a disgusting list.
 

Rumors are NE not impressed with Maye and will consider trading back from 3 if Daniels is off the board.
 

Goff and Vick turned out fine. Wentz had moments. George had lots of chances.

That list is probably more representative of drafting QBs than you'd think.
 

Iceland12 said:
When you were looking that up how many teams that traded-up got someone who worked out? Or didn't you find anybody who did
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Iceland12 said:
When you were looking that up how many teams that traded-up got someone who worked out? Or didn't you find anybody who did?
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That's the entirety (according the ESPN article) of all QB selections when teams traded into the Top 5 to select a QB. I think the article was a couple of years old, though, right before the Niners traded up to #3 to pick the NDSU QB from Marshal. That so far hasn't bucked the trend and it certainly didn't work out for San Francisco. Since then, there's Carolina. Rough start for Young but its still early. Do we have more examples in the last three years?
 

TruthSeeker said:
Goff and Vick turned out fine. Wentz had moments. George had lots of chances.

That list is probably more representative of drafting QBs than you'd think.
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I see the ESPN article wouldn't link for some reason. It was more telling.

Vick was good, not great. Goff might be "fine" whatever that means. But was he worth trading into the top 5? Were any of those guys worth trading up for in hindsight? Its obviously tough to quantify but it doesn't appear to me that any team that traded into the Top 5 got what they were looking for - a franchise QB that would win them a Super Bowl or even high level, sustained success short of a Super Bowl.

Looking at the lists, it seems that teams that traded into slots 5-10 faired a bit better. Mahomes, obviously. Josh Allen is another.

Teams that traded into the late first round seemed to get the most value - guys like Lamar Jackson, even Jordan Love. And serviceable guys who had careers in the league, like Teddy Bridgewater.

Obviously some very good QBs are taken in the first round and I'd venture that most productive QBs were taken in the first round. There's always the big caveat TB12. But plenty of busts are taken in the first round, too. Do QBs bust more often in the first round that other positions? I'd like to see someone take a run at quantifying that. My suspicion is yes. Teams are looking for Mr. Right Now rather than Mr. Right. Beyond the QB position, there seems to be a bit less emotional judgment involved in selecting talent.
 

Thanks @swede2 for checking into that and sharing what you found.

I'm guessing your stats largely cover this, but what I'm interested is roughly like this:

- last X years (relevant timeframe, so maybe 15)
- team traded major assets (by some agreed upon definition) to "buy their way into" the top 5 (ie, they didn't organically earn a top 5 spot)
- used that to pick a QB (are their even any instances of doing that and then not picking a QB??)
- the QB turned into a "successful franchise QB" (again relying on some agreed upon definitions of success and what being a franchise QB is)


With those definitions (specifically the top 5 part and the last 15 years part), I wouldn't be surprised if two things are true: 1) there are zero instances where it worked out (top 5 means Mahomes is not included here), and 2) there are actually fairly few instances of this. Point 2 simply being because it costs so damn much to do.


Do the Vikings -- the Vikings, up there with the most unlucky franchises in the NFL -- really think they're going to be the ones to buck the trend???
 

So what have we "learned" today
--tanking is bad
--trading up is bad

So if your team needs a QB, what's left?

Trades (giving up assets)
free agency (expensive)
pick some guy later in the draft and hope you get lucky.

OK fans, let's hear it: "Let's get lucky!"
 


swede2 said:
That's the entirety (according the ESPN article) of all QB selections when teams traded into the Top 5 to select a QB. I think the article was a couple of years old, though, right before the Niners traded up to #3 to pick the NDSU QB from Marshal. That so far hasn't bucked the trend and it certainly didn't work out for San Francisco. Since then, there's Carolina. Rough start for Young but its still early. Do we have more examples in the last three years?
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Not sure. Thought I deleted those two posts anyway.:banghead:
 

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