Non-conference is now over, how many total B10 Ws do we end up with?

[gopherbadgerman]

Even the projections from the quantitative rating services expect us to win more conference games than that. Torvik has us at 8 Big Ten wins. ESPN's BPI has us at 7.6 conference wins.

Good for them and I hope they are right.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I don't see a loss on the rest of the schedule.

Gotta be the bun

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

I agree except the standards for making the NIT have changed. So I put a win total on it. 18 regular season wins or more (9 B1G). That might not be enough to make the NIT, but it would be a big enough jump.

They've eliminated automatic qualifiers other than from the 6 power conferences (the top 2, in net ranking, from each the power conferences get bids). After that, the next four highest ranking teams (from whatever conference) get bids. Those 16 are the home teams for the opening round. Finally, the remaining 16 are chosen from NET ranking. It should be easier for a power conference team to get in now that there aren't 10-15 teams from non-power conferences getting in automatically.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

We've grown accustomed the Big Ten being a pretty strong conference for most of the last 10 or 15 years, where we're putting in 7+ teams every year, and getting to .500 in conference gets you a reasonable to good chance of making the tournament, but that's not a given for every major conference every year.

Over the same time span where the Big Ten is putting in 7 teams every year, the Pac-12 usually gets about 4. In Tubby Smith's final win as Minnesota's head coach, we played a 6 seed UCLA. That UCLA team won the Pac-12 outright with a 13-5 conference record. The Washington team we played in the NIT Final Four in 2012 won the Pac-12 outright at 14-4 and obviously didn't make the tournament.

As someone else alluded to earlier, there's a path where the Gophers go winless against Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan State, and win all our other games, and end up 11-9 in conference, with our best win being...probably @Nebraska or @iowa. Swap losses to @Nebraska and @iowa for home wins against Ohio State and Michigan State, then add in a home win against Northwestern, and I think you get a winning 12-8 conference record (21-10 overall) with 0 Q1 wins going by today's NET rankings.

We're used to the Big Ten being pretty good most years, but this seems to be one of the exceptions. No decent non-conference wins and a down season for the Big Ten could mean going .500 in conference or even a little better and still missing the tournament.

If one makes the argument that the B10 is weaker than the norm, then wouldn’t that argument also have to factor in the seasons where the B10 outperforms the norm as well (harder/tougher than the norm)?

In essence. If you want to make a comparative supposition, it opens up that line of logic to the converse as well. A baseline needs to be set up with data, otherwise it’s just so subjective and everyone, has a different take on what an easy or tough conference is based on their biases.

To avoid the above rigamarole, it simply easier to treat each season as a standalone entity. You play the teams on your schedule and the record is what it is.

 

[Holy Man]

Pretty

If one makes the argument that the B10 is weaker than the norm, then wouldn’t that argument also have to factor in the seasons where the B10 outperforms the norm as well (harder/tougher than the norm)?

In essence. If you want to make a comparative supposition, it opens up that line of logic to the converse as well. A baseline needs to be set up with data, otherwise it’s just so subjective and everyone, has a different take on what an easy or tough conference is based on their biases.

To avoid the above rigamarole, it simply easier to treat each season as a standalone entity. You play the teams on your schedule and the record is what it is.

sure that’s what the committee does.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Pretty

sure that’s what the committee does.

Hope so.

My post was more for members of the Intelligentsia, who were hinting thst this season, if it is fruitful, would be invalid, as the B10 is down this year.
Then that same logic applies when the conference over performs as well, during Ben or are any other coach’s tenure.

I sense a core group that is looking to discredit any positive results generated this season; you good sir, do not fall into that in my estimation.

 

[Holy Man]

Hope so.

My post was more for members of the Intelligentsia, who were hinting thst this season, if it is fruitful, would be invalid, as the B10 is down this year.
Then that same logic applies when the conference over performs as well, during Ben or are any other coach’s tenure.

I sense a core group that is looking to discredit any positive results generated this season; you good sir, do not fall into that in my estimation.

I’m not giving up my membership card in the intelligentsia. Lifetime membership continues into the new year!

 

[Big Dawg]

I voted 7. In earlier threads I said 7+/- 3. I know. Wide range. 4-10. I also stated earlier I was betting the under. So 6, 5 or 4. I'm standing by those #'s. Here is my reasoning: Ben is still the coach who should not have been hired. Yes, he now has a whopping 2 years of experience. In those 2 years as a HC he has finished dead last both seasons. His current team has better players and depth. Results (so far) have been better albeit against fairly bad competition. Still many question marks with this team. Will gladly eat crow if this teams goes 500 in the BIG. Would literally be shocked if they aren't playing on weakling Wednesday. IF I was forced to pick a # and bet on it that # would be 6. Hope I'm wrong and they somehow make it to 11-9 in conference.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

so far with 86 votes counted, if my math is right the average predicted win total is 7.5 and the median is 8. the majority of votes are in the range from 4 to 9 wins.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I’m not giving up my membership card in the intelligentsia. Lifetime membership continues into the new year!

Just the reply I was looking for from my mole.

Don’t worry. I won’t tell anyone

 

[Dave H]

1. Caution that a team can perform differently against better teams than against the prior schedule. People are too optimistic.

2. Maybe stand put with the coach regardless until his group of guys, his guys, are another year older or two. Could save the university severance money. Is there an upward projection is what matters.

What year are you living in? "His Guys"? How long do expect players to stay in the program?

 

[Dave H]

I agree except the standards for making the NIT have changed. So I put a win total on it. 18 regular season wins or more (9 B1G). That might not be enough to make the NIT, but it would be a big enough jump.

Fair point. Yeah 18 is a good number to go with all things being equal.

 

[SHGopher]

What year are you living in? "His Guys"? How long do expect players to stay in the program?

I hear you. You are saying that Payne and Ola-Joseph are gone in the portal after this season. Got it.

Dave H says Payne and Ola-Joseph are out of here when the season ends.

 

[goldenboy]

I went with 6.
I don’t think we defend well enough (neither individual players nor as a team).
We rarely get what we want on the offensive end (just don’t run efficient sets, and the players rarely see the advantage and act on it when we do get what we want: see Payne work to get great post position but never get the ball).
We have a minus coaching staff (is there a fanbase of even a single B1G team that would choose to swap with us?).
We have better shooters than last year, and better bigs than 2 years ago.
So we’ll have a few games that we shoot well and a few games that the opponents have an off game.
I just can’t see those things combining fit more than 6 or 7 wins.
I’d love to be wrong, but would be surprised.

 

[Gophers7633]

Hope so.

My post was more for members of the Intelligentsia, who were hinting thst this season, if it is fruitful, would be invalid, as the B10 is down this year.
Then that same logic applies when the conference over performs as well, during Ben or are any other coach’s tenure.

I sense a core group that is looking to discredit any positive results generated this season; you good sir, do not fall into that in my estimation.

There's a difference between discrediting Johnson and having some perspective. Getting to 10 wins, in this version of the Big 10, is much easier than getting to 10 wins in, for example the 2020 version of the Big 10. For some perspective, there were 11 teams ranked in the top 50 of KenPom (12 if you include us) at the end of the 2020 season. As it stands now, there are 5. That's a significance difference.

Are we better? Yes. Is the Big 10 down? Yes. Will getting to 8 or so wins in conference be a step in the right direction? Yes. Will that result in us actually being a good basketball team? No.

For some perspective, Pitino's last team had 10 wins in quads 1-3. Finished 81 in the NET, and 62 in KenPom. Right now this team has 1 win in quads 1-3, sits at 86 in the NET and 81 in KenPom. What got Pitino fired, is the same thing we are praising Johnson for. We have to go at least .500 to in conference to match the "quality" wins from that season for Pitino.

We need to measure the actual quality of the team, and not the record, given this version of the B1G.

 

[Dave H]

I hear you. You are saying that Payne and Ola-Joseph are gone in the portal after this season. Got it.

Dave H says Payne and Ola-Joseph are out of here when the season ends.

Funny I thought I was just commenting that players don't tend to stick around anymore by poking at what appears to be a rather antiquated idea you posited...your response is to make up a post by me in a not very clever way. Cool.

I have no clue who will or won't leave, but if you are hanging your hat on the idea that the team will evolve and grow together over a few years and that is how Ben will get success then I have a bridge to sell you on Hennepin Avenue and just your luck IT IS ON SALE THIS WEEK!! These days we live in a "Grass is Greener" era of sports and they have a free pass to go smell it.

 

[Dave H]

Are we better? Yes. Is the Big 10 down? Yes. Will getting to 8 or so wins in conference be a step in the right direction? Yes. Will that result in us actually being a good basketball team? No.

I think this is the key point for all sides of this argument. Context matters. Winning 10 Big Ten would be a good sign. (I am not saying we will do that) It would show the team took a positive step and is back to not being a laughingstock. But the relative weakness of the Big Ten will be a factor in that and is definitely a legit reason why this years 10 wins would be less impressive than previous seasons. It doesn't diminish but it is relevant.

People seem to forget 2 things can be true at the same time...

All you can do is play your schedule. If you are a decent team you should be able to win the winnable games. If you are a good team you will win more than the winnable games you will steal some you weren't expected to win.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

There's a difference between discrediting Johnson and having some perspective. Getting to 10 wins, in this version of the Big 10, is much easier than getting to 10 wins in, for example the 2020 version of the Big 10. For some perspective, there were 11 teams ranked in the top 50 of KenPom (12 if you include us) at the end of the 2020 season. As it stands now, there are 5. That's a significance difference.

You’re in essence making my argument for me; if you want to bring up how “watered down” the B10 is in 2023, then you need to compare that data from the years he was coach, as in 21 & 22 and not cherry pick a season when he wasn’t even the coach ; what were those Ken Pom stats in 21 & 22? That’s a true/honest comparative analysis.

Additionally. The data you are using is also flawed, you’re comparing data points from two different time frames, the end of a season vs. end of the non-conference - that methodology doesn’t fly for any longitudinal study. You need to compare the data from the same time frame, ergo, the end of the non-conference season or the end of the season (no intermingling of the data, please), otherwise people cherry pick data points to prove their argument.

Full disclosure. I spent 15 years conducting research for pharma companies, so I have a different perspective on these types of discussions than most, per my experience on the .

Are we better? Yes. Is the Big 10 down? Yes. Will getting to 8 or so wins in conference be a step in the right direction? Yes. Will that result in us actually being a good basketball team? No.

For some perspective, Pitino's last team had 10 wins in quads 1-3. Finished 81 in the NET, and 62 in KenPom. Right now this team has 1 win in quads 1-3, sits at 86 in the NET and 81 in KenPom. What got Pitino fired, is the same thing we are praising Johnson for. We have to go at least .500 to in conference to match the "quality" wins from that season for Pitino.

We need to measure the actual quality of the team, and not the record, given this version of the B1G.

Unless you’re willing to employ the methodology referenced above, your argument is invalid to me. I’ll simply enjoy each season as it’s own entity, as I’m not getting paid to look at it from a granular perspective and have no interest in doing that research.

BTW, if we sux this year and don’t make st least the NIT, I’ll admit I was wrong RE CBJ and want him fired; the question is will you do likewise, if the converse occurs?
I’m guessing Gophers 0-7632 would

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Funny I thought I was just commenting that players don't tend to stick around anymore by poking at what appears to be a rather antiquated idea you posited...your response is to make up a post by me in a not very clever way. Cool.

I have no clue who will or won't leave, but if you are hanging your hat on the idea that the team will evolve and grow together over a few years and that is how Ben will get success then I have a bridge to sell you on Hennepin Avenue and just your luck IT IS ON SALE THIS WEEK!!

I live after holiday sales; chocolate covered
We’re half off at Rite-Aid

These days we live in a "Grass is Greener" era of sports and they have a free pass to go smell it.

 

[Gophers7633]

You’re in essence making my argument for me; if you want to bring up how “watered down” the B10 is in 2023, then you need to compare that data from the years he was coach, as in 21 & 22 and not cherry pick a season when he wasn’t even the coach ; what were those Ken Pom stats in 21 & 22? That’s a true/honest comparative analysis.

Additionally. The data you are using is also flawed, you’re comparing data points from two different time frames, the end of a season vs. end of the non-conference - that methodology doesn’t fly for any longitudinal study. You need to compare the data from the same time frame, ergo, the end of the non-conference season or the end of the season (no intermingling of the data, please), otherwise people cherry pick data points to prove their argument.

Full disclosure. I spent 15 years conducting research for pharma companies, so I have a different perspective on these types of discussions than most, per my experience on the .



Unless you’re willing to employ the methodology referenced above, your argument is invalid to me. I’ll simply enjoy each season as it’s own entity, as I’m not getting paid to look at it from a granular perspective and have no interest in doing that research.

BTW, if we sux this year and don’t make st least the NIT, I’ll admit I was wrong RE CBJ and want him fired; the question is will you do likewise, if the converse occurs?
I’m guessing Gophers 0-7632 would

It's watered down period. It doesn't matter what year I chose, comparatively this year is worse. You want me to do last year? There were 11 teams that finished in the top 50 of KenPom. How about the year before? There were 8. How about the year before that, Pitino's last year? There were 10. I already did 2020. So in the last 5 seasons, this is the worst.

I understand I'm using two different time frames. I don't have access to the data of where these teams stood at the end of each respective non conference. If you think 11 teams will finish in the top 50 of KenPom, like last year, then it's a wash. I don't think so because that would be an additional 6 teams.

Congrats on all that research you did for Pharma companies. If you can't conclude that this year is the worst Big 10 in the timeframe I used above, that 15 years is pretty much useless.

I'll enjoy the season as well, while being able to also identify that this Big 10 is watered down. And actually analyze the team, not the record.

If we win at least 10 Q1-Q3 games, I'll happily admit I was wrong and that CBJ deserves another year. If we are a good team, we should eclipse 20 wins. I hope we do.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

It's watered down period. It doesn't matter what year I chose, comparatively this year is worse. You want me to do last year? There were 11 teams that finished in the top 50 of KenPom. How about the year before? There were 8. How about the year before that, Pitino's last year? There were 10. I already did 2020. So in the last 5 seasons, this is the worst.

I understand I'm using two different time frames. I don't have access to the data of where these teams stood at the end of each respective non conference. If you think 11 teams will finish in the top 50 of KenPom, like last year, then it's a wash. I don't think so because that would be an additional 6 teams.

Congrats on all that research you did for Pharma companies. If you can't conclude that this year is the worst Big 10 in the timeframe

Where did I reference the above bolded in my post/argument? Please, specifically point that out in my post. That’s a cute trick to attribute positions to me which I never made; guessing you weren’t on the debate team, huh?

My rebuttal (crux of my argument) was regarding the methodology (process), which I thought was abundantly clear, my bad if that wasn’t clear to you. I wasn’t disagreeing with the conclusion, it was, the process used to read said conclusion.

The reality is, if the B10 was stacked, its highly unlikely any posters would bring that up in critiquing his performance; it’s evidenced by people harping on how weak the B10 is this season based on incomplete data.

I used above, that 15 years is pretty much useless.

I'll enjoy the season as well, while being able to also identify that this Big 10 is watered down. And actually analyze the team, not the record.

If we win at least 10 Q1-Q3 games, I'll happily admit I was wrong and that CBJ deserves another year. If we are a good team, we should eclipse 20 wins. I hope we do.

Lastly, as you didn’t address the query below, I’ll take that as a no.

BTW, if we sux this year and don’t make st least the NIT, I’ll admit I was wrong RE CBJ and want him fired; the question is will you do likewise, if the converse occurs?

I’m bored at this juncture, and since you replied to a general post (not specific to you), I’m taking the last word and am tapping out. If you post again, I will not respond, as I’ve made my point and you’ve made yours - we’re both entitled to them and to be wrong/right as well.

Happy New Year

 

[Gophers7633]

Where did I reference the above bolded in my post/argument? Please, specifically point that out in my post. That’s a cute trick to attribute positions to me which I never made; guessing you weren’t on the debate team, huh?

My rebuttal (crux of my argument) was regarding the methodology (process), which I thought was abundantly clear, my bad if that wasn’t correct to you.

The reality is, if the B10 was stacked, its highly unlikely any posters would bring that up in critiquing his performance; it’s evidenced by people harping on how weak the B10 is this season based on incomplete data.


Lastly, as you didn’t address the query below, I’ll take that as a no.

BTW, if we sux this year and don’t make st least the NIT, I’ll admit I was wrong RE CBJ and want him fired; the question is will you do likewise, if the converse occurs?

I’m bored at this juncture, and since you replied to a general post (not specific to you), I’m taking the last word and am tapping out. If you post again, I will not respond, as I’ve made my point and you’ve made yours - we’re both entitled to them and to be wrong/right as well.

Happy New Year

Why tap out? All I've done is presented you with facts. If the B1G was as good as it was in 2020 and we won 8 conference games that would mean more than doing it in this watered down version. That would give ME more optimism that it's headed in the right direction. Winning 8 in this B1G, while obviously a step in the right direction, doesn't mean as much. Coupled with the crap OOC, there no meat on the wins.

I understood the crux of your argument. Did you miss where I mentioned I don't have access to that data so I'm using end of season results?

If you think the B1G isn't watered down this year, just say so. I just don't understand why we shouldn't just things based on this years version of the conference. Like I said, analyze the performance, not the record.

Also, did you miss me say if we got 10 Q1-Q3 wins I would happily admit I was wrong and he would deserve another year?

 

[Ewert86PC]

I say 6.

This team is going to struggle with being disciplined enough that their higher shooting percentages won't make up the difference during conference games.

By disciplined, I mean it twofold. One, refraining from extra emotional displays that get fouls, especially technical fouls, called on them.

Secondly, discipline in the defensive sense. Staying on your man. Blocking out under the rim to grab rebounds. Keeping lanes to the basket closed. Knowing your defensive assignments and responsibilities.

 

[Johnnyboy18]

I say 6.

This team is going to struggle with being disciplined enough that their higher shooting percentages won't make up the difference during conference games.

By disciplined, I mean it twofold. One, refraining from extra emotional displays that get fouls, especially technical fouls, called on them.

Secondly, discipline in the defensive sense. Staying on your man. Blocking out under the rim to grab rebounds. Keeping lanes to the basket closed. Knowing your defensive assignments and responsibilities.

They've had one technical foul all year. What kind of prediction is this?!?

 

[Ewert86PC]

They've had one technical foul all year. What kind of prediction is this?!?

Soft non-con schedule. I don't think it will be as easy to keep emotions in check with trash talking being elevated to new levels during conference games.

Do we play defense?

 

[Johnnyboy18]

Soft non-con schedule. I don't think it will be as easy to keep emotions in check with trash talking being elevated to new levels during conference games.

Do we play defense?

Who are these players you see getting a bunch of technical fouls? Insane prediction but carry on.

 

[Ewert86PC]

Who are these players you see getting a bunch of technical fouls? Insane prediction but carry on.

Mitchell for one. One can be enough.

 

[bga1]

Soft non-con schedule. I don't think it will be as easy to keep emotions in check with trash talking being elevated to new levels during conference games.

Do we play defense?

We don't play good enough defense. We have played it in spots. We played it for a half against Nebraska. We played it for a half against OSU. You have to play the whole game that way. We have enough talent to compete at the middle of the pack IF we do. There is no evidence yet that we will- so far we are just outscoring lesser teams.

 

[Zeppelin Gopher]

One, refraining from extra emotional displays that get fouls, especially technical fouls, called on them.

Haha, what?

 

[Spaulding!No!]

The pro elem is any type o f losing streak will create a jittery coach and kids looking to play elsewhere. No room for error this year.