Bowl Game Projections?

[MGGopher]

You are angry that the team didn't meet your expectations. You think they deserve less than other teams. Shitty fan....in other words.

Let's just say this....in the previous seven years.....the Big Ten has sent five 6-6 teams and two 7-5 teams to the Pinstripe Bowl. The Gophers are the first 8-4 team that the Big Ten has sent. And I'm willing to bet that the Big Ten won't subject any other 8-4 Big Ten teams to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl either.

Wow, I didn't know this. That's pretty telling. I honestly think Minnesota played themselves into this game, but there's zero denying that they hardly ever get the benefit of the doubt.

 

[kg21]

So, it's conference record combined with head-to-head? Why did Wisconsin get Vegas in 2021, then?

Because they can choose?

 

[RememberMurray]

Because they can choose?

I don't think anyone is disputing that they get to choose.

We're discussing why they seem to repeatedly decide to screw the Gophers.

 

[stocker08]

I think the Gophers had a much more legitimate complaint last year than they do this year, to be honest.

It doesn't matter in my eyes. Considering that the Big Ten didn't fill the Motor City Bowl either of the past two years....the Gophers got the worst possible combination of bowl games.....as a team that went 8-4 with a winning conference record both of those years. We could have been 6-6 both years and would have ended up in these exact two games. If that was the case....then sure....we would have "deserved" these two games. I would say that we definitely deserved better.

First time the Big Ten has sent an 8-4 team to the Pinstripe. As for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl....that was the San Francisco Bowl for the conference prior....and then the Texas Bowl before that. Last time an 8-4 team was sent by the Big Ten to that bowl outside of the Gophers last year.....was the Gophers in 2013. Think about that. Back to back years we are going to a bowl game with the best record of a Big Ten team in either.

My entire issue is that the Gophers continuously get the ass end of the bowl shake out. It makes it that much more disheartening when both years saw at least one team with a worse record jump to a better game.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

I see your point, but all teams schedule cupcakes. And at the end of the year, it’s the overall record that really matters. You can despise all you want, but that’s the way it is.

Iowa schedules Iowa State every year—not a cupcake. We scheduled NC next year; not a cupcake. But we scheduled three huge cupcakes in 2022.

 

[USAF]

You are angry that the team didn't meet your expectations. You think they deserve less than other teams. Shitty fan....in other words.

Let's just say this....in the previous seven years.....the Big Ten has sent five 6-6 teams and two 7-5 teams to the Pinstripe Bowl. The Gophers are the first 8-4 team that the Big Ten has sent. And I'm willing to bet that the Big Ten won't subject any other 8-4 Big Ten teams to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl either.

/thread

 

[stocker08]

Wow, I didn't know this. That's pretty telling. I honestly think Minnesota played themselves into this game, but there's zero denying that they hardly ever get the benefit of the doubt.

Yup. And as I said in my last post....the Guaranteed Rate Bowl/San Francisco Bowl/Texas Bowl.....the only other team that the Big Ten has sent with an 8-4 record to one of those (prior to the Gophers last year)....were the Gophers in 2013.

So people can keep saying that it isn't the Big Ten's fault. That the Gophers "played themselves into this game". But you can't say that the Gophers are getting equal treatment as far as records and results are concerned. That's my whole issue with how these things are shaking out.

 

[JWG]

An 8 win team was going to NY this year. The teams that were considered all had 8.

 

[RememberMurray]

Iowa schedules Iowa State every year—not a cupcake. We scheduled NC next year; not a cupcake. But we scheduled three huge cupcakes in 2022.

We didn't schedule them in 2022, though. They were scheduled long in advance. No one knew that Colorado, for example, would be as bad as they have been recently.

 

[stocker08]

Yes, Iowa had the same conference record as us AND beat us in our stadium. As somebody else in this string said, if you want to be the man you’ve got to beat the ma .

We had the same overall and conference record as Purdue and Wisconsin last year. Beat both head to head. Both were taken over the Gophers last year.

 

[RememberMurray]

An 8 win team was going to NY this year. The teams that were considered all had 8.

And, just like in 2021, guess who got the shitty end of the stick.

 

[stocker08]

An 8 win team was going to NY this year. The teams that were considered all had 8.

So maybe considering the Gophers got a historically bad bowl placement for their 8-4 record last season.....the Big Ten would have let Illinois take the hit this year? Or they could have told the Pinstripe committee to suck it up and put Wisconsin there. One repeat team in the eight years hosting the bowl isn't all that bad. Not to mention that.....since the Gophers travel so bad (I'm told).....wouldn't they have been more than happy to have the Badgers over the Gophers???

 

[golfing18now]

It doesn't matter in my eyes. Considering that the Big Ten didn't fill the Motor City Bowl either of the past two years....the Gophers got the worst possible combination of bowl games.....as a team that went 8-4 with a winning conference record both of those years. We could have been 6-6 both years and would have ended up in these exact two games. If that was the case....then sure....we would have "deserved" these two games. I would say that we definitely deserved better.

First time the Big Ten has sent an 8-4 team to the Pinstripe. As for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl....that was the San Francisco Bowl for the conference prior....and then the Texas Bowl before that. Last time an 8-4 team was sent by the Big Ten to that bowl outside of the Gophers last year.....was the Gophers in 2013. Think about that. Back to back years we are going to a bowl game with the best record of a Big Ten team in either.

My entire issue is that the Gophers continuously get the ass end of the bowl shake out. It makes it that much more disheartening when both years saw at least one team with a worse record jump to a better game.

Gotcha....thanks for the historical anecdotes. I haven't followed the records as closely as you.

Wisconsin seemed to have the worst resume of all the bowl-eligible teams this year and the likely participant in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. With Maryland having played in the Pinstripes Bowl last year, I thought it was a stretch to see them replace Wisconsin and fall to the bottom. Maryland then seemed like the logical fit to the Mayo Bowl and it was down to Iowa or us for the Music City or Pinstripes Bowl. Without consideration for other years, I guess I'm not totally surprised at the outcome.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Well the gophers did not get screwed when they went to the Holiday Bowl or the Citrus or Outback.

I do think last year was worse.

 

[stocker08]

Gotcha....thanks for the historical anecdotes. I haven't followed the records as closely as you.

Wisconsin seemed to have the worst resume of all the bowl-eligible teams this year and the likely participant in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. With Maryland having played in the Pinstripes Bowl last year, I thought it was a stretch to see them replace Wisconsin and fall to the bottom. Maryland then seemed like the logical fit to the Mayo Bowl and it was down to Iowa or us for the Music City or Pinstripes Bowl. Without consideration for other years, I guess I'm not totally surprised at the outcome.

The Big Ten could have put Maryland in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Wisconsin in the Pinstripe. Could have place Illinois in the Pinstripe. Considering our historically low placement in bowl games this past decade...the Big Ten should have made concessions to make sure that we weren't getting the worst outcome for the second straight year.

Well the gophers did not get screwed when they went to the Holiday Bowl or the Citrus or Outback.

I do think last year was worse.

The Citrus Bowl year in 2014 was the only year in which we jumped a team with a better record. Nebraska was 9-3 that year....and the only reason they went to the Holiday Bowl (against a ranked USC team....so it's not like they really got screwed) was because they had been at the Citrus Bowl the prior year. It's almost always the other way around. The Gophers getting passed over for teams with worse records.

 

[WAGopher]

Iowa schedules Iowa State every year—not a cupcake. We scheduled NC next year; not a cupcake. But we scheduled three huge cupcakes in 2022.

Iowa State was a cupcake this year and Iowa lost to them.

And I didn’t say everyone schedules all cupcakes. Most B1G teams schedule 2 cupcakes and 1 competitive game they think they should win. When we scheduled Colorado, we had know idea they would be so bad.

 

[Roland Brooks]

Like I said 5 free posts then charge $10 a post….

 

[TNGophfan]

Completely boned for a second year in a row.

Here's the thing, it's our own damn fault for putting ourselves in this position. We beat Purdue or Iowa and were probably playing in Florida.

 

[toma0045]

The Big Ten could have put Maryland in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Wisconsin in the Pinstripe. Could have place Illinois in the Pinstripe. Considering our historically low placement in bowl games this past decade...the Big Ten should have made concessions to make sure that we weren't getting the worst outcome for the second straight year.



The Citrus Bowl year in 2014 was the only year in which we jumped a team with a better record. Nebraska was 9-3 that year....and the only reason they went to the Holiday Bowl (against a ranked USC team....so it's not like they really got screwed) was because they had been at the Citrus Bowl the prior year. It's almost always the other way around. The Gophers getting passed over for teams with worse records.

Are you arguing that Reliaquest shouldn’t have wanted Illinois? Music city shouldn’t have wanted Iowa? Or Pinstripe shouldn’t have wanted Minnesota. The big picture in 2022 that you present is dependent on those three decisions. Which decision is wrong?

 

[Gophers_4life]

Yes, Iowa had the same conference record as us AND beat us in our stadium. As somebody else in this string said, if you want to be the man you’ve got to beat the ma .

Right.

So ... if Iowa had held on against Iowa State ... then suddenly it's OK to pick them for the bowl game. But because we beat Western Illinois instead, we should've been picked over them. Nothing to do with actual Big Ten games.

 

[stocker08]

Are you arguing that Reliaquest shouldn’t have wanted Illinois? Music city shouldn’t have wanted Iowa? Or Pinstripe shouldn’t have wanted Minnesota. The big picture in 2022 that you present is dependent on those three decisions. Which decision is wrong?

I'm not arguing for what the bowls themselves wanted. I'm arguing on what's equitable for all the Big Ten teams. Does bowl slotting match results on the field. Because I've already pointed out that in the past ten years, the Gophers have now gone three times to the Pinstripe/Guaranteed Rate/San Francisco/Texas level bowl games as an 8-4 team compared to a whopping ZERO for the other Big Ten teams.

There's nothing to argue here and there's no way to say that the Gophers haven't been repeatedly screwed on bowl placement. The facts are there.

 

[Gophers_4life]

It doesn't matter in my eyes. Considering that the Big Ten didn't fill the Motor City Bowl either of the past two years....the Gophers got the worst possible combination of bowl games.....as a team that went 8-4 with a winning conference record both of those years. We could have been 6-6 both years and would have ended up in these exact two games. If that was the case....then sure....we would have "deserved" these two games. I would say that we definitely deserved better.

First time the Big Ten has sent an 8-4 team to the Pinstripe. As for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl....that was the San Francisco Bowl for the conference prior....and then the Texas Bowl before that. Last time an 8-4 team was sent by the Big Ten to that bowl outside of the Gophers last year.....was the Gophers in 2013. Think about that. Back to back years we are going to a bowl game with the best record of a Big Ten team in either.

My entire issue is that the Gophers continuously get the ass end of the bowl shake out. It makes it that much more disheartening when both years saw at least one team with a worse record jump to a better game.

Well again, there is some discussion that the Gophers/Coyle/Fleck? actively lobbied for the Guarantee Rate bowl. Perhaps thinking it would help to draw out AZ winter resident Gopher alumni? Not sure how well that worked. But it was in a baseball stadium that did not have heat, because of course not for obvious reasons, so it was probably not a warm game by any means.


Overall record is a poor way to look at it, when the quality of non-conf games can be so variable. Our record last year was better, to be honest, although quite similar to this year. Basically, we lost to Illinois and Iowa both years, lost to Ohio St last year and Penn St this year. Last year we had a bad homecoming loss to Bowling Green, this year we had a bad homecoming loss to Purdue.


But point is: the difference between 6-6 and 8-4 overall can be the same Big Ten record but playing two much tougher non-conf teams instead of two Western Illinois types.

 

[Gophers_4life]

the Gophers have now gone three times to the Pinstripe/Guaranteed Rate/San Francisco/Texas level bowl games as an 8-4 team compared to a whopping ZERO for the other Big Ten teams.

Because we beat Western Illinois, so we got to be 8-4 instead of 7-5 if we had played a difficult non-conf game?

I think you're putting way too much importance on overall record.

 

[stocker08]

Well again, there is some discussion that the Gophers/Coyle/Fleck? actively lobbied for the Guarantee Rate bowl. Perhaps thinking it would help to draw out AZ winter resident Gopher alumni? Not sure how well that worked. But it was in a baseball stadium that did not have heat, because of course not for obvious reasons, so it was probably not a warm game by any means.


Overall record is a poor way to look at it, when the quality of non-conf games can be so variable. Our record last year was better, to be honest, although quite similar to this year. Basically, we lost to Illinois and Iowa both years, lost to Ohio St last year and Penn St this year. Last year we had a bad homecoming loss to Bowling Green, this year we had a bad homecoming loss to Purdue.


But point is: the difference between 6-6 and 8-4 overall can be the same Big Ten record but playing two much tougher non-conf teams instead of two Western Illinois types.

Why don't you go through all the Big Ten teams with similar records? Go through the ones who went to better bowls despite worse records. Fact is that teams draw weaker schedules some years. It just shakes out that way. Stop trying to explain why our eight wins are so much worse than any other eight win team in recent Big Ten history.

But you can also look at the flip side of the coin. How many bad losses are okay? Gophers didn't lose to any teams with a below .500 record. Iowa lost to two teams that finished 4-8.

 

[Gophers_4life]

So head-to-head is all that matters.

Of course not

In 2021 we beat Wisconsin 'straight up'. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin finished 9-4.

Badgers went to the Las Vegas Bowl, Gophers to the prestigious Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

Like I mentioned above, there is speculation that the Gophers actively lobbied for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

 

[stocker08]

Because we beat Western Illinois, so we got to be 8-4 instead of 7-5 if we had played a difficult non-conf game?

I think you're putting way too much importance on overall record.

So? Illinois played Chattanooga. Maryland played Charlotte. Iowa played Nevada. Purdue played Indiana State.

Every Big Ten teams plays creampuffs. So should every team have a win or two deducted?

 

[Gophers_4life]

Why don't you go through all the Big Ten teams with similar records? Go through the ones who went to better bowls despite worse records. Fact is that teams draw weaker schedules some years. It just shakes out that way. Stop trying to explain why our eight wins are so much worse than any other eight win team in recent Big Ten history.

But you can also look at the flip side of the coin. How many bad losses are okay? Gophers didn't lose to any teams with a below .500 record. Iowa lost to two teams that finished 4-8.

Iowa is locked into a difficult non-conf game against Iowa State, every year. They had won six in a row over 2015-2021. This year, both schools quite frankly were awful on offense. ISU was due and held on to win.

So there's your one win difference. Iowa lost to Iowa State, we beat Western Illinois.


I don't think that playing the cupcake-iest of cupcakes possible should get you the selection, over the team that beat you head-to-head.

 

[stocker08]

Iowa is locked into a difficult non-conf game against Iowa State, every year. They had won six in a row over 2015-2021. This year, both schools quite frankly were awful on offense. ISU was due and held on to win.

So there's your one win difference. Iowa lost to Iowa State, we beat Western Illinois.


I don't think that playing the cupcake-iest of cupcakes possible should get you the selection, over the team that beat you head-to-head.

So Iowa State lost to a bad Iowa State team....but since they are good sometimes....it doesn't matter? That was their P5 non-con game. Against a BAD Iowa State team. We played one of those games too. Colorado was bad. Not our fault that they were as bad as they were. They weren't when we scheduled the games.

Fact is that we won our P5 non-con game. Iowa lost to a 4-8 team. Next.

 

[saintpauljeff]

Like I said 5 free posts then charge $10 a post….

I think folks think about this s--t waaaaay too much

 

[Gophers_4life]

So? Illinois played Chattanooga. Maryland played Charlotte. Iowa played Nevada. Purdue played Indiana State.

Every Big Ten teams plays creampuffs. So should every team have a win or two deducted?

How about just the normal, reasonable thing that most people can understand: there is nuance to the overall record that can and should also be taken into consideration rather than just blindly looking at the numbers.