Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023 (Minnesota: Projected preseason win total: 7.5)

[RememberMurray]

— Yes, the non-conference schedule is tougher than last year. But the question is: how much tougher, really? Because, unless it is so tough that the Gophers will actually lose one or more non-conference games, it is irrelevant to win total projections. Check out Fleck's record in non-conference games. I'd say we'll be favorites in all three non-conference games.

I'm fully aware of Fleck's record in non-conference games. That record didn't prevent us from losing to Bowling Green. Fleck has never had a non-conference schedule this difficult during his time here either. If we win all three of them in the fall, that will be more impressive than any early season non-conference performance to date under Fleck.

-If we're assuming losses to Michigan and Ohio State, and a 3-0 record in non-conference play, do you see an additional 3 losses (for a B1G record of 4-5) in the 2023 B1G schedule?

It's nonsensical to say "do you see X amount of losses on the schedule?" or "which games aren't 'winnable?' I didn't see Nebraska and Illinois as losses in 2018. I didn't see Bowling Green and Illinois as losses in 2021. I didn't see Purdue as a loss in 2022 and I didn't think we'd lose to Illinois two years in a row. I also believed we would beat Iowa this past season. Unlike some of you, I've learned that my expectations can be wrong so I prefer to temper them. I've also learned that the term "winnable" should be declared ex-post. A game was "winnable" if you won it.

The irony of all of this is that you're exactly the kind of person who will be claiming during the season that we're performing pretty well given the challenges if our wins fall below the rosier expectations next fall.

As far as me "droning on," some of you are slow learners so I have to repeat myself.

Do you think Minnesota will be underdogs in any of their 3 oh-so-difficult non-conference games in 2023?

Oh, and the Bowling Green references never get tiresome. Keep 'em coming.

 

[cjbfbp]

Do you think Minnesota will be underdogs in any of their 3 oh-so-difficult non-conference games in 2023?

Oh, and the Bowling Green references never get tiresome. Keep 'em coming.

Yes, I would say that they have a good chance of being underdogs at UNC especially since that game is early in the season and bettors don't have that much information yet. I don't expect them to be a big underdog and Fleck's teams traditionally play pretty well as slight underdogs on the road. Even if a team is not an underdog, we should all know by now that a team can lose a game when the team is a slight favorite. If you have 3 games where you are a 55% favorite in each, the mathematical probability of winning all three is less than 17% and the probability of winning two or three is only 57.5%.

Bowling Green should always be remembered; not for the purpose of damning the team but for the purpose of reminding people that, as Donald Rumsfeld once said: "Stuff happens."

 

[PMWinSTP]

Yes, we could win 8 of the remaining 10 and that would be a very good showing. Our non-conference is much harder than usual as well. We also can't count on Michigan State being the pushover they were early this past season.

The only possible bright spot I see in next year's schedule is that other west teams may be a bit unsettled with the coaching changes. I'm glad we play Nebraska in the first game. We could actually have a harder overall schedule but an easier Western Division schedule.

Finally, there is always the possibility of unexpected losses which happen often enough. In the spring of 2021, no one saw Bowling Green and Illinois as losses. In the spring of 2022, most probably didn't expect to lose to Purdue and probably not Illinois for the second consecutive year.

Agree the Nonconference is harder, so I see those being closer wins, not complete blowouts like last year.

 

[RememberMurray]

Agree the Nonconference is harder, so I see those being closer wins, not complete blowouts like last year.

It definitely looks harder (on paper). But unless we think the Gophers will actually lose one of those, it's irrelevant to a discussion about projected wins and losses for 2023. If the team wins all three, it doesn't matter if the wins aren't huge blowouts (like last season). 3-0 in non-conference is 3-0 in non-conference, and 3-0 in non-conference would mean the Gophers would have to go 4-5 (or worse) in the B1G in order to fail to reach 8+ wins.

 

[PMWinSTP]

It definitely looks harder (on paper). But unless we think the Gophers will actually lose one of those, it's irrelevant to a discussion about projected wins and losses for 2023. If the team wins all three, it doesn't matter if the wins aren't huge blowouts (like last season). 3-0 in non-conference is 3-0 in non-conference, and 3-0 in non-conference would mean the Gophers would have to go 4-5 (or worse) in the B1G in order to fail to reach 8+ wins.

Most nonconference schedules would look harder compared to last year's. I said closer wins, but yes obviously still...wins.

 

[btowngopher]

I’m going to go against the grain and say the schedule is not as hard as everyone is saying. It looks a bit tougher compared to recent schedules, but outside of Michigan and OSU there aren’t any games that we aren’t at least close to a coin flip in. UNC, Wisconsin, and Iowa are all close in difficulty and I consider them coin flips. The rest of the games we should be favored in. Less than 8 regular season wins would be disappointing, more than 8 would be stellar.

 

[cjbfbp]

It definitely looks harder (on paper). But unless we think the Gophers will actually lose one of those, it's irrelevant to a discussion about projected wins and losses for 2023. If the team wins all three, it doesn't matter if the wins aren't huge blowouts (like last season). 3-0 in non-conference is 3-0 in non-conference, and 3-0 in non-conference would mean the Gophers would have to go 4-5 (or worse) in the B1G in order to fail to reach 8+ wins.

Getting to a 7-5 regular season record with next year's schedule is quite easy.

Step 1: Count OSU and Michigan as losses

Step 2: Big Ten West games --- We have just gone through a streak of 3 full seasons of 9 wins or more (the best streak in many years!). Despite that success, we never lost less than 2 Big Ten West games in any of those years (2 in 2019 and 2021; 3 in 2022). If we go with that number there are two more losses.

Step 3: Lose at North Carolina (entirely possible). There's the 5th loss.

All I'm saying is to be prepared for a 7-5 regular season record because that's quite possible. If that's the result, you won't catch me bitching and moaning about how they've underperformed expectations. The Gophers could be a better team than this past season and still end up with a worse record. Of course, I always expect the team to win a bowl game unless they get a much better opponent than they should (like Purdue did this past season) so I would expect at least 8 wins overall. Anything better than that I would consider a good (or really good) season under the circumstances.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

North Carolina finished 8-5 last year. Gophers were 9-4. The game is at North Carolina.

the home team typically gets about a 3-point advantage in the point spread.

I could easily see this game being a pick-em. Which by definition makes it one of the tougher non-conference games in quite a while.

and Murray - I don't think anyone is saying the Gophers will lose to North Carolina.

They're just saying it's possible that they could lose. which I think is a fair statement.

and saying it's possible that they could lose does not mean you're rooting against the Gophers, or makes you "not a real fan." It just means they have a little more doubt about the situation than you do.

as for me, I exist in a constant state of doubt.

 

[RememberMurray]

North Carolina finished 8-5 last year. Gophers were 9-4. The game is at North Carolina.

the home team typically gets about a 3-point advantage in the point spread.

I could easily see this game being a pick-em. Which by definition makes it one of the tougher non-conference games in quite a while.

and Murray - I don't think anyone is saying the Gophers will lose to North Carolina.

They're just saying it's possible that they could lose. which I think is a fair statement.

and saying it's possible that they could lose does not mean you're rooting against the Gophers, or makes you "not a real fan." It just means they have a little more doubt about the situation than you do.

as for me, I exist in a constant state of doubt.

Of course we "could" lose to North Carolina. Heck, we "could" lose any game on our schedule, in any season. On the other hand, we "could" beat both Michigan and Ohio State.

Are we talking about all the possible outcomes, or are we talking about what we feel to be the most likely outcomes, and using that to project a win-loss total?

 

[The SF Rock]

Way over. 11-1 with a tough toss up bowl game. But then we just don’t lose bowl games. We will have an absolute juggernaut of an offense. And one of the best, yet underrated Ds in the country. Save this post for next January. Top 10 finish.

 

[swelna]

Way over. 11-1 with a tough toss up bowl game. But then we just don’t lose bowl games. We will have an absolute juggernaut of an offense. And one of the best, yet underrated Ds in the country. Save this post for next January. Top 10 finish.

And it would be such a PJ thing if the one loss was to an Iowa team with it's head cut off on offense...

 

[cjbfbp]

Way over. 11-1 with a tough toss up bowl game. But then we just don’t lose bowl games. We will have an absolute juggernaut of an offense. And one of the best, yet underrated Ds in the country. Save this post for next January. Top 10 finish.

I will save this post and if the team falls well short of your expectations, I'll remind you of what a starry-eyed goober you are. But, then again, I suspect that you won't even remember your post or have the fortitude to admit your folly.

 

[cjbfbp]

North Carolina finished 8-5 last year. Gophers were 9-4. The game is at North Carolina.

Technical correction. They were 9-5. They finished the regular season 9-3 but lost the ACC championship to Clemson (pretty badly) and then lost the Holiday Bowl to Oregon by a point.

I'm simpatico to the rest of your post.

 

[RememberMurray]

I will save this post and if the team falls well short of your expectations, I'll remind you of what a starry-eyed goober you are. But, then again, I suspect that you won't even remember your post or have the fortitude to admit your folly.

"Goober"? Really?

It's sad that you feel the need to insult others.

Everybody has an opinion here. It's fine to argue your points, but there's really no need to call names when someone happens to disagree with you.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I bet beating Michigan or OSU would be less of an upset than Bowling Green beating us was. I agree we can't put any games in an "automatic win" column, but we also shouldn't put any in an "automatic loss" column. Especially with so many Year Zero coaches on the schedule.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

I ran a company that helped promote the sandwich shop at certain events at big companies around Houston. I have met you and your wife before. You also got me and my two brothers-in-law on the Golf Club of Houston a week after the Houston Open tournament was there.

Well, my memory is a bit sketchy, but I sound like a hell of a guy..LOL.
Go Gophers!

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

New quarterback, running back, and defensive coordinator in Illinois.

And Wisconsin, our other main rival? Moving on from the successful Alvarez model will be a truly colossal change. Would you expect the transition to be seamless?

Using arguments like this as a basis for why the Gophers will have an advantage is odd to me. If you switch out defensive coordinator for offensive coordinator, wouldn't you just have described the Gophers instead of Illinois? And I'd say both QB and RB were bigger losses for Minnesota than Illinois. I can't imagine you'd say Illinois had better talent at those positions.

And the Alvarez model that cost Paul Chryst his job? The one that netted Barry himself a grand total of 6 seasons finishing ranked in the top 25 out of his 16 total seasons? Fickell has a better resume at this point in his career than Barry, by far.

It's fine to want to be positive about your team, but other people being realistic isn't a bad thing or even being down on the Gophers.

 

[mngg11]

It's funny sometimes because I feel like a number of the assessments I see for next year assume everyone else in the conference is going to be better but we're going to have zero progression or development at all. It's entirely possible that we're going to be a tough ass team for everyone to beat, and there's an overwhelming body of evidence over the past five years that would indicate that as being the truth. This team has incrementally improved every friggin year minus covid. Too many people are relying on our historical performance pre 2019 as a reference.

This team will be awesome on defense again and the last two games of the season indicate that the offense won't be far behind. Eight wins should be the floor.

 

[RememberMurray]

Using arguments like this as a basis for why the Gophers will have an advantage is odd to me. If you switch out defensive coordinator for offensive coordinator, wouldn't you just have described the Gophers instead of Illinois? And I'd say both QB and RB were bigger losses for Minnesota than Illinois. I can't imagine you'd say Illinois had better talent at those positions.

And the Alvarez model that cost Paul Chryst his job? The one that netted Barry himself a grand total of 6 seasons finishing ranked in the top 25 out of his 16 total seasons? Fickell has a better resume at this point in his career than Barry, by far.

It's fine to want to be positive about your team, but other people being realistic isn't a bad thing or even being down on the Gophers.

No one said it was a bad thing, Certainly, I never said it was.

As to the specifics: is Luke Fickell's career resume really better than Alvarez's, and better, quote, "by far"? What was Fickell's record in the B1G, again... at Ohio freakin' State? Refresh my memory. Was it really better than Alvarez, the guy who pulled Wisconsin out of obscurity?

Tell us about it. I'd like to hear your thoughts. Preach, brother!

 

[fmlizard]

15-0 CFP Champs.

Georgia doesn't even come out for the 2nd half after Gophers take a 63-0 halftime lead.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

No one said it was a bad thing, Certainly, I never said it was.

As to the specifics: is Luke Fickell's career resume really better than Alvarez's, and better, quote, "by far"? What was Fickell's record in the B1G, again... at Ohio freakin' State? Refresh my memory. Was it really better than Alvarez, the guy who pulled Wisconsin out of obscurity?

Tell us about it. I'd like to hear your thoughts. Preach, brother!

I really wanted to say "Read, brother!" but I'll admit my wording is poor to the point I wanted to make. Fickell has a better resume at this point in his career as Barry did at the same amount of years. But really, Barry had 4 double digit win seasons to Luke's 3. Luke had his team 1 game away from a national championship appearance. Wisconsin maybe would have had a chance to make that claim in 98? They finished 6th though so I'd say no.

I keep seeing talk about him losing at OSU when he was thrown into the fire with no head coaching experience. Sure, he had a losing record, but lost only 1 game by more than 7 points. They were in every game except 1. So if they score 1 more touchdown per game, they are looking at a 1 loss team. Not terrible for an interim head coach. Who took over after spring practices.

Okay, I'm done defending any Wisconsin coach, especially vs each other. Feel free to disparage both freely.

 

[RememberMurray]

I really wanted to say "Read, brother!" but I'll admit my wording is poor to the point I wanted to make. Fickell has a better resume at this point in his career as Barry did at the same amount of years. But really, Barry had 4 double digit win seasons to Luke's 3. Luke had his team 1 game away from a national championship appearance. Wisconsin maybe would have had a chance to make that claim in 98? They finished 6th though so I'd say no.

I keep seeing talk about him losing at OSU when he was thrown into the fire with no head coaching experience. Sure, he had a losing record, but lost only 1 game by more than 7 points. They were in every game except 1. So if they score 1 more touchdown per game, they are looking at a 1 loss team. Not terrible for an interim head coach. Who took over after spring practices.

Okay, I'm done defending any Wisconsin coach, especially vs each other. Feel free to disparage both freely.

I think there's an outside chance, considering their talent advantage, that even I could take over the program tomorrow and go on to win 6 games as a head coach at Ohio State, and I've never been a football coach in my life.
Let's see how Fickell does in his second season as the head man at a B1G school (first at Wisconsin) before we declare him to be better "by far" than a Hall of Fame coach like Alvarez.

 

[Cedar Rapids Gopher]

You are a

I will save this post and if the team falls well short of your expectations, I'll remind you of what a starry-eyed goober you are. But, then again, I suspect that you won't even remember your post or have the fortitude to admit your folly.

You are a dick. I added you to my ignore list.

 

[Jeremyp]

5-6 wins would mean they lose 6 or 7. Which six or seven games in the 2023 schedule do you see as likely losses?

Forgive me, but I can't help but wonder why you would characterize the last two seasons as disappointing, but at the same time seem okay with a projected 5-6 wins this season?

Also, (sorry for all the questions) but why don't we seem to want to count bowl wins as wins nowadays? Seems to me Glen Mason was run out of town for not winning certain bowl games.

I think the reason for that is because betting the over/under does not include the bowl game. The thread is about the 7.5

 

[GopherTheJugular]

When will the prediction be 10 wins? Not sure how 8 wins every year will be good enough for the price tag fleck has. At some point it should be reloads, not rebuild. We seem to perform the same no matter the schedule. 8 wins again?

I think you need to understand how sports betting works. The idea is for Vegas to put out a number that attracts an equal amount of action on both sides of the bet (then they take a cut of the profit from the winning side).

If Vegas puts out a number like 10, everyone and their mother is going to bet the house on the "under" and Vegas will have a huge liability on their hands, which they certainly don't want.

They aren't in the business of guessing how 130 FBS teams are going to do, they're in the business of putting out lines that will get fans to bet equally on both sides. That's why they can be incredibly off for some teams and still make money.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Regarding this "much tougher schedule" which some posters keep droning on and on about:

— Yes, the non-conference schedule is tougher than last year. But the question is: how much tougher, really? Because, unless it is so tough that the Gophers will actually lose one or more non-conference games, it is irrelevant to win total projections. Check out Fleck's record in non-conference games. I'd say we'll be favorites in all three non-conference games.

For reference, I've been betting on sports for over 10 years. In 2019 I thought the Gophers would exceed expectations, so I bet the over. I was sweating bricks during the 3 non-conference games to start the season.

 

[PMWinSTP]

It's funny sometimes because I feel like a number of the assessments I see for next year assume everyone else in the conference is going to be better but we're going to have zero progression or development at all. It's entirely possible that we're going to be a tough ass team for everyone to beat, and there's an overwhelming body of evidence over the past five years that would indicate that as being the truth. This team has incrementally improved every friggin year minus covid. Too many people are relying on our historical performance pre 2019 as a reference.

This team will be awesome on defense again and the last two games of the season indicate that the offense won't be far behind. Eight wins should be the floor.

Well, you are new out here. There is a group of GHers who have this mentality year in and year out...Gophs glass always half-empty, opponenets half-full. As George Carlin observed, the glass is the wrong size.

 

[Bring back the Axe]

We'll definitely be underdogs at UNC. Drake Maye will be a Heisman contender next year. And Eastern Michigan and Louisiana are not pushovers either.

The conference schedule is brutal. 7-5 is my expectation. Anything more will be gravy.

 

[PMWinSTP]

We'll definitely be underdogs at UNC. Drake Maye will be a Heisman contender next year. And Eastern Michigan and Louisiana are not pushovers either.

The conference schedule is brutal. 7-5 is my expectation. Anything more will be gravy.

OK, so nonconference games won't be blowout wins like last year. UNC is overrated and definitely winnable. Ended the season with four straight losses.

 

[cjbfbp]

You are a

You are a dick. I added you to my ignore list.

Oh, boo hoo.