Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023 (Minnesota: Projected preseason win total: 7.5)

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per Brad:

Projected preseason win total: 7.5

Minnesota's win total would be higher for 2023 if the schedule was conducive to maximum success, but unfortunately for the Golden Gophers, it is not. Outside of the usually difficult Big Ten slate, PJ Fleck's team also travels to North Carolina, who won the ACC Coastal last season and return Heisman candidate Drake Maye under center. Minnesota opens with a must-win game against Nebraska, which represents Rhule's debut with the Huskers. Lose that one at home and this win total shrinks rather quickly.

247sports.com

Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023

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247sports.com 247sports.com

Go Gophers!!
 

This is a fair take and I would go under here. The Gophers will face improving teams in Wisconsin and Nebraska, very tough games with Ohio St. and Michigan, a tough non-conference game at North Carolina and of course Iowa who has given them problems for a long time.

The Gophers can be sneaky good especially if AK emerges as a top QB and their running game continues to excel even with the loss of Ibrahim. Their defense is consistently underrated.

I will go with 7-5 at this very early juncture.
 

I’d take the under. I think looking at a 6-6 or 7-5 season. New QB, uncertainty at RB and OL, and lost a decent amount in defense combined with a tough schedule. Hoping for 8-4 but would bet the under on this one…
 

We would be a tough team to bet on next year for sure. 3 games where we are likely to be pretty substantial underdogs (@NC, Mich, @OSU) but the other 9 could all be very winnable. Problem is that nobody really knows what to expect from Wisconsin, Nebraska and Purdue given the coaching changes.

And we have some unknowns as well with a newish QB and the potential for a shift in offensive style.

At this point a record of 8-4 or 7-5 feels pretty likely but which side of that 7.5 projection we end up on is still very much up in the air.
 

I Iike our depth on defense. I think the over/under depends on what the run game looks like. Who breaks through? Can the line be consistent?

Mo kept a lot of pressure off of AK with what he brought to the table, if Sean Tyler can maintain his G5 production at the P5 level or one of our young guys step up and start putting up good stats, along with the line doing enough to regularly make holes to keep the defense honest, I'd take the over. If the run game sucks, we might be in for a long season.

I'm optimistic, I think we step back a bit with the impact players we lost but overall, we maintain and take 8 wins with a tough schedule.
 


It terms of home/away advantages, our schedule weighs pretty well in our favor in the traditionally rough games. Iowa and Ohio St. being our only major road, in-conference opponents makes almost any game aside from OSU competitive. Need to play perfect and count on them sleepwalking to take that one. No disrespect to Purdue but I think they're gonna have a bad year. Michigan doesn't impress me and I think they're very beatable, as shown by TCU.

I'm strongly bullish as it relates to the UNC game. I think our strengths match up (our defense vs their offense) and I think Rossi is a criminally underrated guy nationally.
 

Maybe another 8-4, 9-4 (Bowl game victory!) this next year. Vegas?
 

Trouble with preseason projections for us is that we happen to be playing a lot of teams that sports media have been very eager to hype up: Sconnie and Nebraska with coaching changes, Iowa with McNamara transferring in, Ohio State and Michigan coming back from CFP berths, UNC with Maye returning, the list goes on. Not all of these teams can or will be as good as the projections suggest, so while our schedule will still be a gauntlet it likely won’t be quite as bad as it seems right now. Plus, we’re returning a decievingly good crew and bringing in an absurdly solid transfer class for our needs. We haven’t driven up hype because we haven’t made the same waves some other teams have, but so long as our defense stays half as good as it was last year and AK8 keeps performing at least as well as he has been we should have at least a fighting chance in every game we play. 7-5 is still certainly not out of the question, but I retain that it’s our floor and not our ceiling.
 

Hope springs eternal to only see the it drain as the season progresses...

Realistically though 8 wins would be great with a bowl on top...
 



I know next to nothing about North Carolina, but a quick scan of their team profile shows their 9 wins were:

1) Florida A&M
2) Appalachian State (by 2 points)
3) Georgia State (by 7 points)
4) VA Tech
5) Miami
6) Duke
7) Pitt
8) Virginia (by 3 points)
9) Wake Forest (by 2 points)

They lost to:

1) Notre Dame
2) Georgia Tech
3) NC State
4) Clemson (blowout)
5) Oregon

They scored 482 points (impressive) but gave up 431 points (yikes!)

Football Outsiders 2022 computer rankings have them #57, Minnesota #18.

ESPN 2022 computer rankings have them #43, Minnesota #21.

For what it's worth...
 

RememberMurray said:
I know next to nothing about North Carolina, but a quick scan of their team profile shows their 9 wins were:

1) Florida A&M
2) Appalachian State (by 2 points)
3) Georgia State (by 7 points)
4) VA Tech
5) Miami
6) Duke
7) Pitt
8) Virginia (by 3 points)
9) Wake Forest (by 2 points)

They lost to:

1) Notre Dame
2) Georgia Tech
3) NC State
4) Clemson (blowout)
5) Oregon

They scored 482 points (impressive) but gave up 431 points (yikes!)

Football Outsiders 2022 computer rankings have them #57, Minnesota #18.

ESPN 2022 computer rankings have them #43, Minnesota #21.

For what it's worth...
Click to expand...
This is all true, and I also just generally feel that we match up well in general as a team with an (on paper) improving offense and elite defense going into the offseason. That said, they’re on the up and up as well and should not be underestimated by any means, especially as an early-season matchup.

Gophers by 200.
 

Gophers should have a much better passing game this year. That will translate into less players in the box for our running game and for pressuring our QB.
 

North Carolina also lost a fairly major portion of their offensive success in their O.C. So their strength likely isn't as strong. I say it's a coin flip game unless their home field advantage is great.
 



7.5 is a good number for them to get betting on both sides, although I'd lean under.

Nebraska at 5.5? Wow. Normally they are always over-rated, like 7 or 8. Now that Frost is gone, the number drops?
 

lot of unknowns and variables.
My biggest concern is rebuilding the offensive line. Going to have at least 3 new starters and/or a possible position shift for Carroll.
in 2nd place I would have the defensive backfield. losing two really strong players in Smith and Howden.

as noted, the schedule on paper is stronger than previous years.

so 7.5 seems pretty reasonable. I
 


For the "I'll take the under" folks, here is Minnesota's 2023 schedule. Remember, if you actually took the under, you'd need at least 5 Gopher losses in order to win your bet. I assume bowl games aren't a factor in this hypothetical betting scenario.

(Home games in CAPS):

NEBRASKA
EASTERN MICHIGAN
@ North Carolina
@ Northwestern
LOUISIANA
MICHIGAN
---
@ Iowa
MICHIGAN STATE
ILLINOIS
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State
WISCONSIN
---
 
Last edited:

RememberMurray said:
For the "I'll take the under" folks, here is Minnesota's 2023 schedule. Remember, if you actually took the under, you'd need at least 5 Gopher losses in order to win your bet. I assume bowl games aren't a factor in this hypothetical betting scenario.

(Home games in CAPS):

NEBRASKA
EASTERN MICHIGAN
@ North Carolina
@ Northwestern
LOUISIANA
MICHIGAN
---
@ Iowa
MICHIGAN STATE
ILLINOIS
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State
WISCONSIN
---
Click to expand...
10-2. The defense maintains high level of play with several new stars emerging and more depth than recent good defenses.

The offense is better because of balanced attack and play calling. Our running game will continue to be strong because defenses will need to cover the whole field. Several backs will contribute.
 

RememberMurray said:
I know next to nothing about North Carolina, but a quick scan of their team profile shows their 9 wins were:

1) Florida A&M
2) Appalachian State (by 2 points)
3) Georgia State (by 7 points)
4) VA Tech
5) Miami
6) Duke
7) Pitt
8) Virginia (by 3 points)
9) Wake Forest (by 2 points)

They lost to:

1) Notre Dame
2) Georgia Tech
3) NC State
4) Clemson (blowout)
5) Oregon

They scored 482 points (impressive) but gave up 431 points (yikes!)

Football Outsiders 2022 computer rankings have them #57, Minnesota #18.

ESPN 2022 computer rankings have them #43, Minnesota #21.

For what it's worth...
Click to expand...
Ez win tbh
 

RememberMurray said:
For the "I'll take the under" folks, here is Minnesota's 2023 schedule. Remember, if you actually took the under, you'd need at least 5 Gopher losses in order to win your bet. I assume bowl games aren't a factor in this hypothetical betting scenario.

(Home games in CAPS):

NEBRASKA
EASTERN MICHIGAN
@ North Carolina
@ Northwestern
LOUISIANA
MICHIGAN
---
@ Iowa
MICHIGAN STATE
ILLINOIS
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State
WISCONSIN
---
Click to expand...
Pretty easy 8-4 bet for me
 

RememberMurray said:
I know next to nothing about North Carolina, but a quick scan of their team profile shows their 9 wins were:

1) Florida A&M
2) Appalachian State (by 2 points)
3) Georgia State (by 7 points)
4) VA Tech
5) Miami
6) Duke
7) Pitt
8) Virginia (by 3 points)
9) Wake Forest (by 2 points)

They lost to:

1) Notre Dame
2) Georgia Tech
3) NC State
4) Clemson (blowout)
5) Oregon

They scored 482 points (impressive) but gave up 431 points (yikes!)

Football Outsiders 2022 computer rankings have them #57, Minnesota #18.

ESPN 2022 computer rankings have them #43, Minnesota #21.

For what it's worth...
Click to expand...
The Mack Brown affect. I see that game as very winnable. Would set the table for the rest of the season. Probably my road trip game too, so there's that bias.
 

If we hit the over on the 7.5 wins in 2023 then PJ did an unreal coaching job.

We are replacing the best RB I have seen. We are replacing the best C since Eslinger. We have a QB that showed signs but is really young. We have a DL and LB group that struggles with run contain and middle of the field coverage.

We make a bowl game in 2023 and I am happy.
 

I am usually extremely optimistic when it comes to our Gophers, but that schedule looks so hard for 2023. I am usually an over wins total when it comes to every previous schedule, but I think 5-6 wins might be all muster next season, gosh I hope I’m wrong. Maybe they will surprise me because 8 wins the last couple of seasons has been a disappointment, bowl games not included.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
I am usually extremely optimistic when it comes to our Gophers, but that schedule looks so hard for 2023. I am usually an over wins total when it comes to every previous schedule, but I think 5-6 wins might be all muster next season, gosh I hope I’m wrong. Maybe they will surprise me because 8 wins the last couple of seasons has been a disappointment, bowl games not included.
Click to expand...
I'm an optimist too - I like this schedule regardless of how difficult it appears. These guys have typically risen to the challenge under Fleck; they usually lose really stupid games to teams they're supposed to stomp. This is the type of year breakthroughs come from. I'm hopeful.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
I am usually extremely optimistic when it comes to our Gophers, but that schedule looks so hard for 2023. I am usually an over wins total when it comes to every previous schedule, but I think 5-6 wins might be all muster next season, gosh I hope I’m wrong. Maybe they will surprise me because 8 wins the last couple of seasons has been a disappointment, bowl games not included.
Click to expand...

5-6 wins would mean they lose 6 or 7. Which six or seven games in the 2023 schedule do you see as likely losses?

Forgive me, but I can't help but wonder why you would characterize the last two seasons as disappointing, but at the same time seem okay with a projected 5-6 wins this season?

Also, (sorry for all the questions) but why don't we seem to want to count bowl wins as wins nowadays? Seems to me Glen Mason was run out of town for not winning certain bowl games.
 

I'm taking a bit of a different angle on next year.
Purdue and Illinois lose a lot, especially Purdue. Those two losses could turn into two wins. +2
2-1 vs PSU, MSU, and Rutgers probably turns into 1-2 vs UM, OSU, MSU. -1
2-0 vs NW and Neb is probably still 2-0 next year. +0
1-1 vs IA and WI is still probably 1-1 next year. +0
3-0 in non-conference probably 2-1 next year. -1

I think the Gophers are again 8-4 in the regular season next year. It would be great to steal a game from either OSU/MI or one of IA/WI next year, and many UNC to a lesser extent. That would be a top notch season in my opinion.
 



All the more reason to have a better passing offense. That may be a necessity. The Gophers have an upgrade at QB. The offense needs to move up one notch.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
I am usually extremely optimistic when it comes to our Gophers, but that schedule looks so hard for 2023. I am usually an over wins total when it comes to every previous schedule, but I think 5-6 wins might be all muster next season, gosh I hope I’m wrong. Maybe they will surprise me because 8 wins the last couple of seasons has been a disappointment, bowl games not included.
Click to expand...
Wait, you live in the Woodlands ? I only know 3 other Gopher fans in the Houston area ( I live in Katy). and they all live in the Woodlands.
 

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