Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023 (Minnesota: Projected preseason win total: 7.5)

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Bfan said:
All the more reason to have a better passing offense. That may be a necessity. The Gophers have an upgrade at QB. The offense needs to move up one notch.
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Tanner Morgan had an outstanding career at Minnesota. If Kaliakmanis, over the course of his career, proves to be a big upgrade over Tanner Morgan, the Gopher football team will be outstanding.

Athan has the talent, no doubt.
 
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Texan Gopher said:
Wait, you live in the Woodlands ? I only know 3 other Gopher fans in the Houston area ( I live in Katy). and they all live in the Woodlands.
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Yes, my wife and I live in The Woodlands. We get to Minnesota most every fall for some games.
 

How would fans feel if we lost to Iowa and Wisconsin, but beat Ohio state or Michigan?
 

RememberMurray said:
5-6 wins would mean they lose 6 or 7. Which six or seven games in the 2023 schedule do you see as likely losses?

Forgive me, but I can't help but wonder why you would characterize the last two seasons as disappointing, but at the same time seem okay with a projected 5-6 wins this season?

Also, (sorry for all the questions) but why don't we seem to want to count bowl wins as wins nowadays? Seems to me Glen Mason was run out of town for not winning certain bowl games.
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Like I said, I’m just really nervous about this schedule, as well as losing some key players.

We could lose to:

Nebraska, North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio St and Wisconsin

I just spelled out 9 games that make me nervous, now I dont think we will lose all those games, but nobody could tell me that any of these games are a gimme either.

My disappointments in the last two seasons were the losses in 2021 to Bowling Green and Illinois.
The 2022 schedule saw losses to Purdue, Illinois and the blowout from Penn State that were all a huge let down for me. And the way we lost to Iowa was just inexcusable.

Obviously there were some great wins over the last couple of years as well and maybe this is where I get let down, that we often follow some good wins with a bad loss.

The only reason I am not counting a bowl game is that it is not included in the over/under prediction from Vegas, so Vegas odds are based on a 12 game schedule. Obviously, I appreciate how the Gophers have been all business in their bowl games.
 

MonikerSchmoniker45 said:
How would fans feel if we lost to Iowa and Wisconsin, but beat Ohio state or Michigan?
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Depends, is OSU or Mich definitely worse than both Iowa and Wisconsin? Then I would be disappointed, but it would at least make sense.

If they are better than both Iowa or Wisconsin, I'd be upset that we still couldn't get it done when we showed we can beat one of the best teams in the big ten
 


with the over/under set at 7.5 - well, there are no half-games, and no ties - so the final total has to be in whole numbers.

but, when I look at the total picture - players lost, holes to fill, multiple new coaches in the conference, strength of schedule, I really think 7.5 is a very fair prediction.

meaning that the Gophers are most likely to end the regular season with 7 or 8 wins.

from what is being said here, I sense that many people would consider 7-5 as a disappointment, while 8-4 would be at least adequate.

folks, that's a 1-game difference. and one game can hinge on so many things - a doinked FG, a pass caught or dropped, an INT caught or dropped, a penalty called or not called.

get your tums, maalox and pepto-bismol ready - this could be a stomach-churning season, with a majority of the games up for grabs. fun - or terrifying - depending on your point of view.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
Yes, my wife and I live in The Woodlands. We get to Minnesota most every fall for some games.
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You're not by chance really good at golf are you? And you and your wife didn't by chance own a restaurant franchise location did you?
 


Dakota2 said:
Invalid question because we do not lose to either Iowa or Whisky this year and will probably not beat both OSU and Michigan. One, maybe, but not both.
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That seems like the correct answer.

This season will be a great test for the program. Can we adapt to new players at key positions, who happen to have different skill sets from the long-time starters they are replacing?

I predict: Yes.
 






RememberMurray said:
That seems like the correct answer.

This season will be a great test for the program. Can we adapt to new players at key positions, who happen to have different skill sets from the long-time starters they are replacing?

I predict: Yes.
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I also predict yes. It starts right at the top with Coach Fleck changing his best and taking advantage of the changed player skills -- emphasis on adding quality receivers, more mobile QB, good depth at RB, and an OC who zeros in on keeping defense spread out to cover the field.
 



RememberMurray said:
Tanner Morgan had an outstanding career at Minnesota. If Kaliakmanis, over the course of his career, proves to be a big upgrade over Tanner Morgan, the Gopher football team will be outstanding.

Athan has the talent, no doubt.
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He had an outstanding year in 2019. Rest was not outstanding IMO
 

RememberMurray said:
Tanner Morgan had an outstanding career at Minnesota. If Kaliakmanis, over the course of his career, proves to be a big upgrade over Tanner Morgan, the Gopher football team will be outstanding.

Athan has the talent, no doubt.
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Athan proved himself over the season to at the very least be an upgrade over 2022 Morgan assuming he maintains the level of play he only showed more capability of after each start (The Wisconsin game as well as the contrast in their performances vs. Nebraska and Syracuse stick out to me most). Morgan just seemed lost from the Purdue game onwards, whereas AK found himself more and more game after game. Whether he’s also an upgrade over, say, 2019 Morgan has yet to be seen, though, and this will likely be a deciding factor in our success for 2023.
 

ergopher said:
Athan proved himself over the season to at the very least be an upgrade over 2022 Morgan assuming he maintains the level of play he only showed more capability of after each start (The Wisconsin game as well as the contrast in their performances vs. Nebraska and Syracuse stick out to me most). Morgan just seemed lost from the Purdue game onwards, whereas AK found himself more and more game after game. Whether he’s also an upgrade over, say, 2019 Morgan has yet to be seen, though, and this will likely be a deciding factor in our success for 2023.
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Morgan and Athans in game performance was statistically nearly identical this year.



Here is a post of mine from another thread:

Compare how they played in big ten wins + Syracuse


In big ten games + Syracuse
Morgan 69-108 (64%) 743 5TDs 4Ints 6.9 yards per attempt



kaliakmanis 57-106 (54%) 879 3TDs 4Ints 8.3 yards per attempt


Pretty clear that the offense made bigger plays with AK in the game. Also pretty clear that the difference was closer to slight than major.
After Nebraska game it was pretty clear the team shouldn’t go back to Morgan. And they didn’t except due to injury.
 

Dakota2 said:
Invalid question because we do not lose to either Iowa or Whisky this year and will probably not beat both OSU and Michigan. One, maybe, but not both.
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I wonder - if that was a prop bet in Vegas, what would the odds be that the Gophers will sweep IA and WI.

because, the last time the Gophers beat both WI and IA in the same season = 1990.

I am not saying it can't happen. I am just saying that it has not happened for 32 years.

so if you can get that bet down, I think you would stand to win a nice bundle if you were right.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I wonder - if that was a prop bet in Vegas, what would the odds be that the Gophers will sweep IA and WI.

because, the last time the Gophers beat both WI and IA in the same season = 1990.

I am not saying it can't happen. I am just saying that it has not happened for 32 years.

so if you can get that bet down, I think you would stand to win a nice bundle if you were right.
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Every streak comes to an end. And the successes and failures of Gopher football teams from the distant past have no relevance as to how the 2023 team will perform. None at all.
 
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MNVCGUY said:
We would be a tough team to bet on next year for sure. 3 games where we are likely to be pretty substantial underdogs (@NC, Mich, @OSU) but the other 9 could all be very winnable. Problem is that nobody really knows what to expect from Wisconsin, Nebraska and Purdue given the coaching changes.

And we have some unknowns as well with a newish QB and the potential for a shift in offensive style.

At this point a record of 8-4 or 7-5 feels pretty likely but which side of that 7.5 projection we end up on is still very much up in the air.
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We won't be substantial underdogs to North Carolina. We likely will be favored.
 



QB play will be better. AK is best arm I've seen in Maroon and Gold since Hohensee.

WR play will be much, much better. Explosive.

TE play will be better, possibly elite.

OL play will be fine. Filled with 5th and 6th year 300 pounders. Callahan knows his stuff.

RB play will be deeper; will be more explosive - especially with the improved passing game. Love Mo for pound out yards, ball control offense, but all three of the WMU transfer, Evans and Taylor bring make them miss, take it to the house elements.

D-line will be much better. Return entire 2-deep except Rush...young guys may beat out guys in last year two deep. New coach brings energy.

Linebackers will be better, if Lindenberg and Selig stay healthy.

Walley and Nubin will be better. Darius Green will bring havoc. Bryson seems good. Need a cb and a nickel to step up.

The WMU rb and the speedster from Alex could improve the return game. New kicker likely similar as Trickett. Punter needs to be better. Grab a grad transfer post-Spring ball.

I think moving on from Ciarrocca breathes new life into the offense.

Seems like Coyle has opened up money for bunch of very accomplished analysts, which should help. New rules allow analysts to do more.

I am hoping more home night games, later starts, which is good for energy. 5-0 Michigan vs 5-0 Minnesota for the Jug in Mpls.

Like getting Iowa after our bye week. They will be playing in 8th consecutive week, including at ISU, at PSU, MSU and at Wisconsin (WI right before us).

Like getting Illini at home. Like getting Badgers at home. Get MSU here instead of in front of 77,000 there.

Jug: Illini damn near beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor.
We damn near beat OSU here just a few years ago.

8-4 means something went wrong coaching or key injuries. This is a 9-3 downside team. Expect another 10-2 or better season.
 
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swingman said:
QB play will be better. AK is best arm I've seen in Maroon and Gold since Hohensee.

WR play will be much, much better. Explosivr.

TE play will be better, possibly elite.

OL play will be fine. Filled with 5th and 6th year 300 pounders. Callahan knows his stuff.

RB play will be deeper; will be more explosive. Love Mo for pound out yards, ball control offense, but all three of the WMU transfer and Evans and Taylor bring make them miss, take it to the house elements.

D-line will be much better.
Linebackers will be better, if Lindenberg and Selig stay healthy.
Walley and Nubin will be better. Need a cb and a nickel to step up.

The WMU rb and the speedster from Alex could improve the return game.

I think moving on from Ciarrocca breathes new life into the offense.

Seems like Coyle has opened up money for bunch of very accomplished analysts, which should help.

Illini damn near beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor.
We damn near beat OSU just a few years ago.

8-4 means something went wrong coaching or key injuries. This is a 9-3 downside team. Expect another 10-2 or better season.
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I'll have what you are having! I also think Gophs overall will be better. AK's better mobility and pocket presence will have as much of an affect on the passing game as his arm.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I'll have what you are having! I also think Gophs overall will be better. AK's better mobility and pocket presence will have as much of an affect on the passing game as his arm.
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Yes! Stands very tall in pocket, is poised under pressure. Quick release.
 

Some guy said:
Morgan and Athans in game performance was statistically nearly identical this year.



Here is a post of mine from another thread:

Compare how they played in big ten wins + Syracuse


In big ten games + Syracuse
Morgan 69-108 (64%) 743 5TDs 4Ints 6.9 yards per attempt



kaliakmanis 57-106 (54%) 879 3TDs 4Ints 8.3 yards per attempt


Pretty clear that the offense made bigger plays with AK in the game. Also pretty clear that the difference was closer to slight than major.
After Nebraska game it was pretty clear the team shouldn’t go back to Morgan. And they didn’t except due to injury.
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AK had a much higher QBR at 75.7 (good for 3rd in the BG10) than Morgan at 64.0. QBR supposedly measures a lot more game winning factors than passer rating such as running, penalties, sacks, strength of defense, etc. I think that's telling.
 

Panthadad2 said:
AK had a much higher QBR at 75.7 (good for 3rd in the BG10) than Morgan at 64.0. QBR supposedly measures a lot more game winning factors than passer rating such as running, penalties, sacks, strength of defense, etc. I think that's telling.
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QBR isn’t a real stat
It was just made up a couple of years ago by ESPN to look smart
It’s the FPI of individual stats

I think that’s telling.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
with the over/under set at 7.5 - well, there are no half-games, and no ties - so the final total has to be in whole numbers.

but, when I look at the total picture - players lost, holes to fill, multiple new coaches in the conference, strength of schedule, I really think 7.5 is a very fair prediction.

meaning that the Gophers are most likely to end the regular season with 7 or 8 wins.

from what is being said here, I sense that many people would consider 7-5 as a disappointment, while 8-4 would be at least adequate.

folks, that's a 1-game difference. and one game can hinge on so many things - a doinked FG, a pass caught or dropped, an INT caught or dropped, a penalty called or not called.

get your tums, maalox and pepto-bismol ready - this could be a stomach-churning season, with a majority of the games up for grabs. fun - or terrifying - depending on your point of view.
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I'm with you more or less. Months ago I stated that 7-5 with this schedule and the roster changes would be pretty fair effort and 8-4 would be great effort. 9-3 would be practically amazing. Ohio State and Michigan as crossovers speak for themselves and we shouldn't expect Michigan State to underperform to the degree that they did last season. The non-conference schedule is head and shoulders above last year's. UNC finished 9-5 and lost to Oregon by a point in their bowl. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 and blew out San Jose State in their bowl. Even Louisiana was bowl eligible and lost a one-score game to Houston. If we could lose to Bowling Green in 2021, we certainly could lose to one of these teams.

I don't know why some people do this to themselves every season. I think some just paint these rosy predictions for "likes" rather than any sincere conviction. I don't think many are dumb enough to believe that tremendous fan optimism leads to better team performance.
 

cjbfbp said:
I'm with you more or less. Months ago I stated that 7-5 with this schedule and the roster changes would be pretty fair effort and 8-4 would be great effort. 9-3 would be practically amazing. Ohio State and Michigan as crossovers speak for themselves and we shouldn't expect Michigan State to underperform to the degree that they did last season. The non-conference schedule is head and shoulders above last year's. UNC finished 9-5 and lost to Oregon by a point in their bowl. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 and blew out San Jose State in their bowl. Even Louisiana was bowl eligible and lost a one-score game to Houston. If we could lose to Bowling Green in 2021, we certainly could lose to one of these teams.

I don't know why some people do this to themselves every season. I think some just paint these rosy predictions for "likes" rather than any sincere conviction. I don't think many are dumb enough to believe that tremendous fan optimism leads to better team performance.
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What is that you see others 'doing to themselves every season'? Does it upset you that others are more optimistic than you?

As far as a prediction of 7-5 goes, the Gophers have been exceedng that win total routinely, and doing it rather easily, for quite a few seasons now. Does that count as 'better team performance'?
 
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cjbfbp said:
I'm with you more or less. Months ago I stated that 7-5 with this schedule and the roster changes would be pretty fair effort and 8-4 would be great effort. 9-3 would be practically amazing. Ohio State and Michigan as crossovers speak for themselves and we shouldn't expect Michigan State to underperform to the degree that they did last season. The non-conference schedule is head and shoulders above last year's. UNC finished 9-5 and lost to Oregon by a point in their bowl. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 and blew out San Jose State in their bowl. Even Louisiana was bowl eligible and lost a one-score game to Houston. If we could lose to Bowling Green in 2021, we certainly could lose to one of these teams.

I don't know why some people do this to themselves every season. I think some just paint these rosy predictions for "likes" rather than any sincere conviction. I don't think many are dumb enough to believe that tremendous fan optimism leads to better team performance.
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Eight regular season wins is not a stretch for this team by any means.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Eight regular season wins is not a stretch for this team by any means.
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Exactly. Achieving 8 wins hasn't been a stretch for many seasons now.

I'm not sure what he's referring to with his remark about 'better team performance'. If we're judging by wins and losses, the team has consistently performed better than 7-5. Heck, the Gophers haven't actually lost more than 4 games per season since, what? 2018?
 
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