Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023 (Minnesota: Projected preseason win total: 7.5)

[Bring back the Axe]

OK, so nonconference games won't be blowout wins like last year. UNC is overrated and definitely winnable. Ended the season with four straight losses.

It is definitely winnable. Their defense has been awful for the most part. I think it will be a fun game either way. I love our schedule next year. Even if we don't win as many games, every week we have a good opponent.

 

[cjbfbp]

It's funny sometimes because I feel like a number of the assessments I see for next year assume everyone else in the conference is going to be better but we're going to have zero progression or development at all. It's entirely possible that we're going to be a tough ass team for everyone to beat, and there's an overwhelming body of evidence over the past five years that would indicate that as being the truth. This team has incrementally improved every friggin year minus covid. Too many people are relying on our historical performance pre 2019 as a reference.

Nobody is doing any of those things. In fact, those thoughts wouldn't even occur to me. This is a very simple thought process: THE SCHEDULE IS MUCH HARDER NEXT YEAR; LIKELY HARDER THAN WE'VE HAD IN 8 YEARS. THAT IS ALL!

Anyone should understand that the harder schedule you have the less likely you are to rack up a lot of wins. We could have a better team next year than this past season and still have fewer wins. And we haven't incrementally improved every year (even ignoring the COVID year). That's fine because almost no one does that. We weren't as good in 2021 as we were in 2019 and I'd argue that we were a bit worse in 2022 than we were in 2021.

 

[cjbfbp]

UNC is overrated and definitely winnable.

Maybe they are and maybe we will and maybe we won't.

The word "winnable" doesn't mean much because the overwhelming majority of games are technically "winnable" for a decent team. Since when do we (or any other team for that matter) win all of our "winnable" games?

I don't think some of you understand basic probability. If you have a 55% chance of winning each of three games, your probability of winning all three is only about 17%.

 

[swelna]

My gut feeling, and yeah I'm being a homer, is that the Michigan game will be a top 25 matchup between two undefeated teams. The Bank will be packed and rocking like it was for the Penn State game in 2019.

 

[ergopher]

Maybe they are and maybe we will and maybe we won't.

The word "winnable" doesn't mean much because the overwhelming majority of games are technically "winnable" for a decent team. Since when do we (or any other team for that matter) win all of our "winnable" games?

I don't think some of you understand basic probability. If you have a 55% chance of winning each of three games, your probability of winning all three is only about 17%.

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season? Plus, probability doesn't really work for college football anyways. If it did we'd just run the numbers and go home, but football is a skill- and talent- based game where the team that plays best will usually win. Your odds of winning close games don't fall because you played more, but instead the better team will win 9/10 times. Sometimes you get a fluke like the Iowa or Purdue game where one bad play or an injury costs you the game, but that's as far as luck will take you. If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win. If we are the better team than Michigan, we will win. We're not measuring odds, we're measuring who we think is the better team.

 

[mngg11]

We weren't as good in 2021 as we were in 2019 and I'd argue that we were a bit worse in 2022 than we were in 2021.

Quit yelling, you're an adult on a message board related to kids playing a game. This schedule may be tough for the 2007 Gophers, but it's a healthy bit of adversity to overcome for the 2023 Gophers. Prepare to have your hedge betting mentality built by years of Minnesota mediocrity turned on its head.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I guess it's all a matter of approach.

I've always been an "expect the worst and hope for the best" type of person. It's who I am. If you expect the worst - and the worst does not happen - you're ahead of the game in my book.

I would rather go into the season with cautious expectations. If the team exceeds my expectations, that's a win-win situation. It's like getting a Christmas bonus from your tightwad boss.

on the other hand, if the team only meets or falls short of my expectations, then I'm not as disappointed, because I was prepared for the possibility.

again, I hope the Gophers win every game. I just don't expect them to win every game, because I know that life and sports have a way of messing with expectations.

 

[cjbfbp]

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season? Plus, probability doesn't really work for college football anyways. If it did we'd just run the numbers and go home, but football is a skill- and talent- based game where the team that plays best will usually win. Your odds of winning close games don't fall because you played more, but instead the better team will win 9/10 times. Sometimes you get a fluke like the Iowa or Purdue game where one bad play or an injury costs you the game, but that's as far as luck will take you. If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win. If we are the better team than Michigan, we will win. We're not measuring odds, we're measuring who we think is the better team.

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season?

You're "allowed" to say anything you want and I'm "allowed" to criticize it. Do you understand how message boards work? No one pays me to agree here and I don't care whether you like me or not. You have freedom and so do I.

If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win.

You still don't get it. What do you mean by "better" team? Do you mean like Ohio State is better than us or do you mean like we were "better" than Purdue but still lost? Perhaps we lost to Purdue because, even if we were "better," we were not better by much and not "better" at all on that day.

What do you mean probability has no application to college football? My guess is that you're just someone who isn't versed in probability and statistics and prefers that it didn't exist. Probability can always be employed. In fact, the sports numbers people do it all the time. They're not always right; that why they call it "probability" instead of "certainty." The probability of us beating Ohio State is pretty small. The probability of Purdue beating us is not so small. We're much more likely to lose to Purdue than beat Ohio State. We're also more like to lose at North Carolina than we are to beat Ohio State (anywhere) and probably Michigan at home.

 

[PMWinSTP]

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season?

You're "allowed" to say anything you want and I'm "allowed" to criticize it. Do you understand how message boards work? No one pays me to agree here and I don't care whether you like me or not. You have freedom and so do I.

If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win.

You still don't get it. What do you mean by "better" team? Do you mean like Ohio State is better than us or do you mean like we were "better" than Purdue but still lost? Perhaps we lost to Purdue because, even if we were "better," we were not better by much and not "better" at all on that day.

What do you mean probability has no application to college football? My guess is that you're just someone who isn't versed in probability and statistics and prefers that it didn't exist. Probability can always be employed. In fact, the sports numbers people do it all the time. They're not always right; that why they call it "probability" instead of "certainty." The probability of us beating Ohio State is pretty small. The probability of Purdue beating us is not so small. We're much more likely to lose to Purdue than beat Ohio State. We're also more like to lose at North Carolina than we are to beat Ohio State (anywhere) and probably Michigan at home.

Good grief.

 

[ergopher]

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season?

You're "allowed" to say anything you want and I'm "allowed" to criticize it. Do you understand how message boards work? No one pays me to agree here and I don't care whether you like me or not. You have freedom and so do I.

If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win.

You still don't get it. What do you mean by "better" team? Do you mean like Ohio State is better than us or do you mean like we were "better" than Purdue but still lost? Perhaps we lost to Purdue because, even if we were "better," we were not better by much and not "better" at all on that day.

What do you mean probability has no application to college football? My guess is that you're just someone who isn't versed in probability and statistics and prefers that it didn't exist. Probability can always be employed. In fact, the sports numbers people do it all the time. They're not always right; that why they call it "probability" instead of "certainty." The probability of us beating Ohio State is pretty small. The probability of Purdue beating us is not so small. We're much more likely to lose to Purdue than beat Ohio State. We're also more like to lose at North Carolina than we are to beat Ohio State (anywhere) and probably Michigan at home.

There’s no point in arguing with you further if you’re just going to misconstrue every point I make and generally just be a rude person. Save the attitude for the basketball forum.

 

[cjbfbp]

There’s no point in arguing with you further if you’re just going to misconstrue every point I make and generally just be a rude person. Save the attitude for the basketball forum.

I didn't "misconstrue" anything. Your problem with me is really a problem with yourself. You don't make very good arguments. The solution is to try harder and be better. If you manage to do that, I will compliment your effort.

 

[The SF Rock]

So what, we just aren't allowed to have fun and try and predict how we'll do next season?

You're "allowed" to say anything you want and I'm "allowed" to criticize it. Do you understand how message boards work? No one pays me to agree here and I don't care whether you like me or not. You have freedom and so do I.

If we are the better team than Eastern Michigan, we will win. If we are the better team than UNC, we will win.

You still don't get it. What do you mean by "better" team? Do you mean like Ohio State is better than us or do you mean like we were "better" than Purdue but still lost? Perhaps we lost to Purdue because, even if we were "better," we were not better by much and not "better" at all on that day.

What do you mean probability has no application to college football? My guess is that you're just someone who isn't versed in probability and statistics and prefers that it didn't exist. Probability can always be employed. In fact, the sports numbers people do it all the time. They're not always right; that why they call it "probability" instead of "certainty." The probability of us beating Ohio State is pretty small. The probability of Purdue beating us is not so small. We're much more likely to lose to Purdue than beat Ohio State. Nlikely.We're also more like to lose at North Carolina than we are to beat Ohio State (anywhere) and probably Michigan at home.

UNC, tOSU, Mich, MSU. We will win 3 of the 4. Sweeping them is unlikely. I will greatly enjoy the win over the Tarheels even though I respect their coach. I dislike ke living among their fans.

 

[Five Toes]

UNC, tOSU, Mich, MSU. We will win 3 of the 4. Sweeping them is unlikely. I will greatly enjoy the win over the Tarheels even though I respect their coach. I dislike ke living among their fans.

As this board, and I like star gazing, it looks like UNC brought in 2 5* and 11 4*. in 2022. The year prior was similar. On paper this will be the best non conference opponent we have played since PJ elevated our team.
I have stated this is tough schedule (in a good way) with the addition of both OSU and MI this coming year. I believe PJ has been building for this schedule and this is what we should expect from a BIG program who is relevant.
Opening with NE and having UNC week 3 is a nice start to 2023. Add in MI and Iowa back to back weeks 6 and 7 is making for a great viewing season.

 

[Cobra]

My expectations right now are victories over every first year coach in the B1G west. Losing any of those games is the same as losing to Bowling Green: unacceptable.
Let’s throw Iwa in there too…
I’ll know more after spring practice is over.

 

[Some guy]

My expectations right now are victories over every first year coach in the B1G west. Losing any of those games is the same as losing to Bowling Green: unacceptable.
Let’s throw Iwa in there too…
I’ll know more after spring practice is over.

But what does “unacceptable” mean

 

[touchdownvikings]

But what does “unacceptable” mean

It means he'll end up accepting it. Because he has no say over any aspect of the program. So if it were to occur, it would enter his reality, and then the program would continue marching forward, and, functionally, he'd accept it.

 

[cjbfbp]

It means he'll end up accepting it. Because he has no say over any aspect of the program. So if it were to occur, it would enter his reality, and then the program would continue marching forward, and, functionally, he'd accept it.

Good definition! I'll have to remember that one.

 

[Some guy]

It means he'll end up accepting it. Because he has no say over any aspect of the program. So if it were to occur, it would enter his reality, and then the program would continue marching forward, and, functionally, he'd accept it.

No means yes

 

[gopherbadgerman]

10-2. The defense maintains high level of play with several new stars emerging and more depth than recent good defenses.

The offense is better because of balanced attack and play calling. Our running game will continue to be strong because defenses will need to cover the whole field. Several backs will contribute.

Solid take.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

QB play will be better. AK is best arm I've seen in Maroon and Gold since Hohensee.

WR play will be much, much better. Explosive.

TE play will be better, possibly elite.

OL play will be fine. Filled with 5th and 6th year 300 pounders. Callahan knows his stuff.

RB play will be deeper; will be more explosive - especially with the improved passing game. Love Mo for pound out yards, ball control offense, but all three of the WMU transfer, Evans and Taylor bring make them miss, take it to the house elements.

D-line will be much better. Return entire 2-deep except Rush...young guys may beat out guys in last year two deep. New coach brings energy.

Linebackers will be better, if Lindenberg and Selig stay healthy.

Walley and Nubin will be better. Darius Green will bring havoc. Bryson seems good. Need a cb and a nickel to step up.

The WMU rb and the speedster from Alex could improve the return game. New kicker likely similar as Trickett. Punter needs to be better. Grab a grad transfer post-Spring ball.

I think moving on from Ciarrocca breathes new life into the offense.

Seems like Coyle has opened up money for bunch of very accomplished analysts, which should help. New rules allow analysts to do more.

I am hoping more home night games, later starts, which is good for energy. 5-0 Michigan vs 5-0 Minnesota for the Jug in Mpls.

Like getting Iowa after our bye week. They will be playing in 8th consecutive week, including at ISU, at PSU, MSU and at Wisconsin (WI right before us).

Like getting Illini at home. Like getting Badgers at home. Get MSU here instead of in front of 77,000 there.

Jug: Illini damn near beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor.
We damn near beat OSU here just a few years ago.

8-4 means something went wrong coaching or key injuries. This is a 9-3 downside team. Expect another 10-2 or better season.

Interesting how things can change in a hurry.