Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

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“FSU doesn’t like the situation it’s stuck in!!! Baghhhhh!!! I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your house down!!!”

:ROFLMAO:
 

Whatever happened with the big bad inquiry that Florida state leg was going to do on CFP committee??
 

Just had an idea, wonder if this could work. The hang up for the ACC teams is the grant of rights. Which only covers home games for each team. Could Florida St leave the ACC for the Big Ten and say for the next 12 years (through 2036 when GOR expires), we're playing our home games at a neutral site in Orlando. Therefore they aren't home games technically and another league could televise them. Thoughts?
 

Sparlimb said:
Just had an idea, wonder if this could work. The hang up for the ACC teams is the grant of rights. Which only covers home games for each team. Could Florida St leave the ACC for the Big Ten and say for the next 12 years (through 2036 when GOR expires), we're playing our home games at a neutral site in Orlando. Therefore they aren't home games technically and another league could televise them. Thoughts?
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Getting cute like this is bound to backfire bigly.

Also why would ESPN freely turn over the right to those games that they own, to say the Big Ten’s media partners?

Would be massive lawsuits with the Big Ten, FOX, et al getting squashed in court.
 


MplsGopher said:
Getting cute like this is bound to backfire bigly.

Also why would ESPN freely turn over the right to those games that they own, to say the Big Ten’s media partners?

Would be massive lawsuits with the Big Ten, FOX, et al getting squashed in court.
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well of course it would be a court battle. And the only way out of that is for a majority of the conference to vote to disband. There's way too much smoke here. Its going to happen. How the court battle plays out and who ends up crying in the bathroom is to be seen. But the ACC is going to have major change or die. That's the tea leaves I see.
 

Sparlimb said:
Just had an idea, wonder if this could work. The hang up for the ACC teams is the grant of rights. Which only covers home games for each team. Could Florida St leave the ACC for the Big Ten and say for the next 12 years (through 2036 when GOR expires), we're playing our home games at a neutral site in Orlando. Therefore they aren't home games technically and another league could televise them. Thoughts?
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Can't see any B1G school going for having one homegame in FLA. Increased costs and ST holders would not be happy. Also can't see the B1G being interested in FSU. As fast as things are changing in college football, I guess anything is possible.
 

when the B1G has added teams, IMHO, it was because they wanted to expand into new TV markets and negotiate better (larger) TV deals.

on paper, Tallahassee is not a big TV market - but getting the B1G an inroad into the FLA market probably has some appeal for exposure and recruiting.

But - I don't see any way the B1G would go to an odd number of teams. So - IF FSU became available for realignment, the B1G would need another team to make 20. and that could get really interesting depending on who that team might be.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
when the B1G has added teams, IMHO, it was because they wanted to expand into new TV markets and negotiate better (larger) TV deals.

on paper, Tallahassee is not a big TV market - but getting the B1G an inroad into the FLA market probably has some appeal for exposure and recruiting.

But - I don't see any way the B1G would go to an odd number of teams. So - IF FSU became available for realignment, the B1G would need another team to make 20. and that could get really interesting depending on who that team might be.
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Tallassee isn't a big market itself but Florida itself is a populous and rapidly growing state. The real question is how many televisions tune in to FSU FB games when they play? Is FSU a national brand? More recent additions Nebraska and Oregon are small markets in less populous states but are perceived national brands. I don't think FSU is as much of a brand as either Nebraska or Oregon but there are a lot of televisions in Florida.
 



PMWinSTP said:
Can't see any B1G school going for having one homegame in FLA. Increased costs and ST holders would not be happy. Also can't see the B1G being interested in FSU. As fast as things are changing in college football, I guess anything is possible.
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What does one game in Florida have to do with anything? By the same logic, why would any school want one game in Oregon? Or Washington? Or Nebraska? Or New Jersey? Etc. What makes travel to Florida more expensive? Why would season ticket holders be forced to travel to Florida? Why would they object?
 

Sparlimb said:
well of course it would be a court battle. And the only way out of that is for a majority of the conference to vote to disband. There's way too much smoke here. Its going to happen. How the court battle plays out and who ends up crying in the bathroom is to be seen. But the ACC is going to have major change or die. That's the tea leaves I see.
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The GOR agreement itself is not a very robust agreement and interestingly enough, does not specify the remedy for an institution that is in breach of the contract. Generally speaking in contract law, the contract itself is the law. Absent a specified remedy in the contract, the law of the jurisdiction will govern what that remedy will be. Will the remedy for the ACC be in damages? Or specific performance?

If the remedy is in damages, the presumed remedy will be for a departing institution to pay damages to the ACC/ESPN for revenue lost and provides an exit to a departing school. Of note, the ACC GOR is based on the Big 12 GOR. Granted, the remaining term of the Big 12's GOR was much shorter than the ACC's currently, but Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 prior to the expiration of the GOR, and they are paying handsomely to do so. This, along with FSU's consultation with venture capitalists, leads me to believe that the remedy here is in damages and that FSU can leave, take along its broadcast rights, and pay the ACC/ESPN whatever the damages are. The question for FSU will be does the increased income from B1G or SEC result in a net increase in revenue to FSU? Assuming full shares, the illustrations I've seen suggest that the answer is yes.

If the remedy for the ACC/ESPN is in specific performance, than any exist will be much more difficult. With specific performance, the court tells FSU, you may not broadcast FSU home events and must allow ESPN to do so. Does the math still work for FSU in this scenario? A form of specific performance is what saved the Twins when MLB tried to contract the Twins. The court told MLB that the Metrodome lease required the Twins to play in the Metrodome and told MLB just that, the Twins must play in the Metrodome.

But all indications are now that FSU seems to think that the ACC/ESPN remedy will be in damages and FSU is nearing the point of taking the risk on what the damages will be for departing the ACC GOR.
 

swede2 said:
What does one game in Florida have to do with anything? By the same logic, why would any school want one game in Oregon? Or Washington? Or Nebraska? Or New Jersey? Etc. What makes travel to Florida more expensive? Why would season ticket holders be forced to travel to Florida? Why would they object?
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So you think ST holders for 9-10 B1G teams wouldn't care about giving up a home game?
 




swede2 said:
Why would they need to?
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Haven't run a scheduling scenario but with nine conference games, and either four or five away games, I would think it would be inevitable.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Haven't run a scheduling scenario but with nine conference games, and either four or five away games, I would think it would be inevitable.
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If the number of conference games stays the same, the H/A matrix doesn't change no matter the number of schools in the conference. If the number of conference games increases, the inbalanced conference H/A problem goes away. There's maybe a lost home game every 2, maybe 4 years, assuming the U continues to find quality H/A with P4 programs and STH's lose a Western Illinois quality OOC game. If the quality H/A OOC bit ceeases, there's no loss.
 


swede2 said:
The real question is how many televisions tune in to FSU FB games when they play? Is FSU a national brand?
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I saw where they were top 10 for total eyeballs on tv this season. Florida State, while I don’t like them personally, would be a smart add for the Big10 in my opinion and there is little doubt that Fox would write that check, given their tv drawing power. They also have a very good overall athletic program with top programs in baseball and softball.
 

Update on FSU via The Athletic (B10 here we come?) -

Florida State’s lawyers did not throw together that lawsuit overnight. They’ve been doing their due diligence for at least a year or longer. So, you might assume the school had some assurance of an attractive landing spot before opting to go scorched earth on its conference.

But to Jeremy’s point, I can’t imagine SEC commissioner Greg Sankey wants anything to do with FSU’s pot-stirring ways. He also doesn’t need the ‘Noles. He already has the flagship university in the state of Florida, along with a half-dozen other schools with as much or more brand cachet. The Big Ten makes more sense as a home for FSU since it has already shown it’s willing to bend all geographic barriers. Plus its main partner, Fox, currently has no presence in the Southeast. It’s also not currently facing an existential crisis in its business like ESPN.

But I believe FSU is mostly betting on itself and its ability to command value in whatever the next iteration of college football might look like. To that end, FSU has for some time been seeking a private equity partner to fund this whole endeavor. In the meantime, the school is making its relationship with the ACC untenable to the point where the league may soon have no choice but to negotiate some sort of reduced-fee exit.
 

Only one school (Notre Dame) is explicitly spelled out in the Big Ten’s new TV deal.

There isn’t even a guarantee of a pro rata increase for any other school.


If the TV partners offer only to extend pro rata for taking on the burden of adding FSU and their pissant fanbase, then that’s a laughable no deal.


Would have to be a significant increase per school per year to even consider it.

Can’t possibly see why FOX, CBS, or NBC would have any appetite for that before they even can assess what they have with the 18.

Very unrealistic.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Update on FSU via The Athletic (B10 here we come?) -

Florida State’s lawyers did not throw together that lawsuit overnight. They’ve been doing their due diligence for at least a year or longer. So, you might assume the school had some assurance of an attractive landing spot before opting to go scorched earth on its conference.

But to Jeremy’s point, I can’t imagine SEC commissioner Greg Sankey wants anything to do with FSU’s pot-stirring ways. He also doesn’t need the ‘Noles. He already has the flagship university in the state of Florida, along with a half-dozen other schools with as much or more brand cachet. The Big Ten makes more sense as a home for FSU since it has already shown it’s willing to bend all geographic barriers. Plus its main partner, Fox, currently has no presence in the Southeast. It’s also not currently facing an existential crisis in its business like ESPN.

But I believe FSU is mostly betting on itself and its ability to command value in whatever the next iteration of college football might look like. To that end, FSU has for some time been seeking a private equity partner to fund this whole endeavor. In the meantime, the school is making its relationship with the ACC untenable to the point where the league may soon have no choice but to negotiate some sort of reduced-fee exit.
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I hope FSU ends up an independent like BYU was for several years after it thought it was too good for its conference.
 

howeda7 said:
I hope FSU ends up an independent like BYU was for several years after it thought it was too good for its conference.
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Was a great move for BYU and eventually led them to being in the big 12 when they had been denied by the P12 and B12 previously

And BYU is getting a higher payout than Utah initially does in the B12
 

howeda7 said:
I hope FSU ends up an independent like BYU was for several years after it thought it was too good for its conference.
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100% correct.

Hope FSU's bravado results in them having to pay over half a billion to the ACC and ESPN to buy out of the GoR they signed, and then get no invitation beyond joining the Big 12 which they turn down to go independent.

Would be delicious.
 

Some guy said:
Was a great move for BYU and eventually led them to being in the big 12 when they had been denied by the P12 and B12 previously
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Circumstances in the Big 12 with Texas and OU leaving are exactly how it was in 2011. :rolleyes:

Would've gotten the exact same invites if they stayed in the MWC and continued to dominate it with Boise.

Some guy said:
And BYU is getting a higher payout than Utah initially does in the B12
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TV contracts in 2023 are exactly the same as in 2011. :rolleyes:
 

MplsGopher said:
Circumstances in the Big 12 with Texas and OU leaving are exactly how it was in 2011. :rolleyes:

Would've gotten the exact same invites if they stayed in the MWC and continued to dominate it with Boise.


TV contracts in 2023 are exactly the same as in 2011. :rolleyes:
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The 2023 tv contracts are the 2023 tv contract and BYUs payout is higher than utahs.
 

Some guy said:
The 2023 tv contracts are the 2023 tv contract and BYUs payout is higher than utahs.
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Because of Texas and OU, which are leaving. They will be exactly the same in 2024, indeed the same conference.

But as was actually the discussion and point: BYU would've arrived at exactly the same spot that they are now if they had never left the MWC.

Their decision to go Indy was fine. It might have netted them slightly more money. But that's just because they created their own TV network that only Mormons would actually pay for, and then essentially paid themselves a piece of the revenue it brought it. It just as well could've been a direct gift from the LDS.


Will be interesting to see how FSU's scenario plays out.

They were independent up to 1991 (or 90, one of the two). Plenty of success doing that. Also got a lot of success playing in the weak ACC. Just like Miami in the Big East, and Nebraska in the Big 8.
 


So a Conference will need 8 teams in 2024 to be eligible for an Auto-Bid. Current set up is top 6 Conference Champs and 6 at large. We'll see if it get's changed to 5-7. Will G5 vote for the change?
 

Here's another interesting wrinkle, involving CFP payouts & SMU: (from Yahoo Sports)

SMU, the latest Group of Five program to elevate to the Power Five next year with its jump to the ACC, is at the heart of a CFP money fight.

In the past, schools making the jump from Group of Five to Power Five also saw a leap in their distribution from the College Football Playoff. The difference in annual payout between G5 teams ($1 million) and P5 teams ($6 million) is substantial.

However, after a discussion among CFP commissioners on Nov. 9, SMU did not garner the necessary support for additional revenue distribution.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey pointed toward the CFP’s long-standing rules around modifications to revenue policies. “You have to have a unanimous vote to alter revenue distribution and diminish somebody else’s revenue,” Sankey said. “That’s it.”

During negotiations to join the ACC, the school committed to the conference under the impression that it would receive the full CFP funds, according to comments made by SMU officials in August. There was recent precedent of such a guarantee. In 2022, the CFP voted to distribute full Power Five payouts to new Big 12 schools UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and BYU — all of them elevating from G5 to P5.
 

MaxyJR1 said:

So a Conference will need 8 teams in 2024 to be eligible for an Auto-Bid. Current set up is top 6 Conference Champs and 6 at large. We'll see if it get's changed to 5-7. Will G5 vote for the change?
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I have a hard time believing it’ll get to 2024 playoff without adjusting but I also never understand why leagues vote against their own interests

It will be interesting to see what they get for a trade. If I am a G5 league, zero amount of money would make me vote to reduce two playoff spots for 5 G5 conferences to 1. (Was supposed to be one but PAC 12 doesn’t have enough teams to get an auto bid now)
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Here's another interesting wrinkle, involving CFP payouts & SMU: (from Yahoo Sports)

SMU, the latest Group of Five program to elevate to the Power Five next year with its jump to the ACC, is at the heart of a CFP money fight.

In the past, schools making the jump from Group of Five to Power Five also saw a leap in their distribution from the College Football Playoff. The difference in annual payout between G5 teams ($1 million) and P5 teams ($6 million) is substantial.

However, after a discussion among CFP commissioners on Nov. 9, SMU did not garner the necessary support for additional revenue distribution.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey pointed toward the CFP’s long-standing rules around modifications to revenue policies. “You have to have a unanimous vote to alter revenue distribution and diminish somebody else’s revenue,” Sankey said. “That’s it.”

During negotiations to join the ACC, the school committed to the conference under the impression that it would receive the full CFP funds, according to comments made by SMU officials in August. There was recent precedent of such a guarantee. In 2022, the CFP voted to distribute full Power Five payouts to new Big 12 schools UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and BYU — all of them elevating from G5 to P5.
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The CFP pays each school money directly?

I was under the impression that they paid money to conferences and then conferences distributed money to their members as they saw fit.


Talk about getting jobbed. Obviously just a one year thing? Can't possibly say that ACC members are different.
 

Let's stick to quoting real, actual media folks instead of jagoff Twitter liars who have never talked to a real person in their lives and just lie as a job.

Real person:
 

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