Are We Headed Towards 4 Conferences?

[disco]

Good for them. Merging the MW into the Pac name seems the most logical. It looks like a pretty good conference on paper, football and basketball.

That's a pretty good conference. I'd say it's a step above all the other G5 conferences.

 

[PMWinSTP]

That's a pretty good conference. I'd say it's a step above all the other G5 conferences.

Probably as good or better than the new Big 12.

 

[MplsGopher]

https://ndsmcobserver.com/2023/11/notre-dame-extends-tv-contract-with-nbc-through-2029/

Notre Dame extends TV contract with NBC through 2029​

On Saturday, Notre Dame and Comcast NBCUniversal announced a new TV deal running through 2029.

Notre Dame is expected to receive around $50 million per year from NBC, in addition to the $17 million it receives from the ACC. Notre Dame’s total compensation is slightly less than what members of the Big Ten would receive. NBC has held the rights to Notre Dame football since 1991.

 

[MplsGopher]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

 

[Ope3]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

I will bet the under on the 2030 realignment timeframe. Big.

 

[MplsGopher]

I said major. You don’t win unless Big Ten or SEC.

SEC has a shiny new contract and content with just adding OU and Texas. If there had been worthy available additional schools to get to 18 (Kansas, for example), they would’ve already been added.

Both are waiting on ACC, which is off limits until 2036. The GoR cannot be defeated in court. Lawyers have sucked hundreds of hours billed trying to find a crack in it. Airtight.

A school like FSU might just be thick skulked enough to conjure a way to convince donors to pay for a negotiated massive buyout. Not impossible to imagine. That’s your only path to victory here

 

[Ope3]

I said major. You don’t win unless Big Ten or SEC.

SEC has a shiny new contract and content with just adding OU and Texas. If there had been worthy available additional schools to get to 18 (Kansas, for example), they would’ve already been added.

Both are waiting on ACC, which is off limits until 2036. The GoR cannot be defeated in court. Lawyers have sucked hundreds of hours billed trying to find a crack in it. Airtight.

A school like FSU might just be thick skulked enough to conjure a way to convince donors to pay for a negotiated massive buyout. Not impossible to imagine. That’s your only path to victory here

It only takes 1. GoR could also be negotiated.

If only the ACC (or Big 12) adds/subtracts I would declare that a "push".

 

[Some guy]

$67M per year total, since they get a half cut of ACC revenue per year in addition to NBC for football. (And a weak tie-in to the Orange Bowl.)


This means major conference realignment for confs east of the Rockies is done until 2030 timeframe. ACC, Big 12 are the half step down, and Big Ten and SEC are going to be stable until then. Those confs are going to feel out their new memberships and give it some time to digest.

The new PAC (merger with Mountain West) will be another half step down, but clearly the best G conf.

It is interesting that 67 million is Described as “slightly less”

Notre dame math.

 

[MplsGopher]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

 

[Ope3]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

The same thing in bold said about Washington and Oregon. They took less (something I suggested WAAAAAY back on page 2 in February), however it did not seem occur to anyone else as a possibility. Things changed. Here they are.

Everything else you said makes sense. Now. It could change.

> SMU, Cal & Stanford also all joined the ACC at a significant discount, less then full shares. If it works for them, others may follow their lead.
> New playoff system could cause a major shake-up.
> NIL could have schools wishing to move up in weight classes based on success and well financed boosters.
> As 2030 approaches, maybe the GoR is much more negotiable, say in 2028.
> Is the Division-less Super Conference going to work or may there be a return to Divisions requiring more schools make the numbers work?

The only thing constant for the past 3 decades is consistent change. Seems foolish to think it will remain static for 6 years. The Big 10 has expanded 4 times since 2010.

I don't think the turf war is over with the SEC.

 

[MplsGopher]

No it's not over, but both are waiting out ACC schools. Those are locked up until 2036. I could go earlier than that, but these things always revolve around negotiations for new/re-up TV deals.

Notre Dame will try on $67M for size through 2029. At that time they will assess how much money the BT/SEC have brought in and if they need closer to that to have a shot at the playoff.

I think they'll be just fine.

 

[Some guy]

@Ope3 outside of current/future ACC members (including ND), there are no schools left that could still be added that they wouldn't have already added.

It's stable.

No current ACC members will be allowed to leave. That's controlled by ESPN.

Why would they, for example with Florida State, allow a property which they already own at a much cheaper price (that FSU agreed to and signed a contract for!) to break their deal and go someplace like the SEC where they'll have the exact same property at a much more expensive rate?

They won't allow it. TV pays for and therefore owns/controls everything.


FSU isn't a good enough school to join the Big Ten. Not on the table. AAU selected South Florida over FSU ...

I agree with some of this analysis and it is why a team paying to break GOR agreements is more likely to join the big ten than the SEC

However, if it looks like a valuable property might break GOR to leave ACC for big ten, that changes the calculus for ESPN and it may be better for them to negotiate against themselves and up a team like Florida State’s payment in order to keep them on their network.

But I don’t think it can happen unless the ACC folds (now unlikely post expansion) or if it is much closer to the year they GOR expires so the negotiations would end with a much lower buyout of the contract.

 

[MplsGopher]

That’s what FSU (and Clemson) would love ESPN to think, that they’re going to the Big Ten.

In a strange sense, it’s actually in the Big Ten’s interest to play along. In the same sense as someone who drives the price up at an auction knowing full well they have zero desire to buy the thing, but just to stick it to their competitor.


ESPN can stick to its guns however, knowing full well that neither of those schools are worthy of the Big Ten academic brand. Clemson is the same thing as NDSU, as an academic institution. Florida State is a different animals as it’s not actually the Ag school in the state, despite the name. It’s similar Illinois State, as an academic institution. But much bigger and richer with much better history and brand in CFB.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Update - the Pac-2 has a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West. Per press release from Washington State President Kirk Schultz:

Pac-12 Conference members Washington State University and Oregon State University have reached a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West Conference for the 2024 football season. As part of the agreement, each institution will play 6 games as provided by the MWC - 3 home and 3 away. Today's announcement provides both institutions clarity for the 2024 football season. We plan to announce a complete 2024 football schedule in the near future."

 

[goldengophers]

Update - the Pac-2 has a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West. Per press release from Washington State President Kirk Schultz:

Pac-12 Conference members Washington State University and Oregon State University have reached a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West Conference for the 2024 football season. As part of the agreement, each institution will play 6 games as provided by the MWC - 3 home and 3 away. Today's announcement provides both institutions clarity for the 2024 football season. We plan to announce a complete 2024 football schedule in the near future."

Mountain West probably becomes PAC 12 in 2025.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Mountain West probably becomes PAC 12 in 2025.

I admit I have not been following the legal wrangling closely. I thought the remaining 2 schools were tied up in a court battle with the 10 departed schools over how to divide up money and over who controls the remaining assets of the old pac-12. so until that whole can of worms is untangled, I don't think that any long-term plans can be made.

plus the CFP has to finalize its format going forward: 6+6, 5+7, etc.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Mountain West probably becomes PAC 12 in 2025.

Maybe just the PAC? I think they would have 13 full members with Hawaii as an affiliate in football.

 

[Ope3]

I think it's headed towards 2 Major/Power Conferences. Maybe less.

We might already be there at 2.

Of the Top 12 Teams (same number as next year's College Football Playoff), 11 of the 12 will be members of the Big 10 or SEC in 2024.

FBS Football Rankings - College Football Playoff | NCAA.com

Get NCAA football rankings from the College Football Playoff committee, Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Poll.

www.ncaa.com

RANK	SCHOOL	RECORD	PREVIOUS
1	Michigan	13-0	2
2	Washington	13-0	3
3	Texas	12-1	7
4	Alabama	12-1	8
5	Florida State	13-0	4
6	Georgia	12-1	1
7	Ohio State	11-1	6
8	Oregon	11-2	5
9	Missouri	10-2	9
10	Penn State	10-2	10
11	Ole Miss	10-2	11
12	Oklahoma	10-2	12

Obviously, that would not be the Field as Conf Champions from the new Big 12, ACC and best from the G5 would need to fill out the Top 4/Byes if the current proposal is adopted.

Only Florida State is not in the Power 2, and they would like to make it happen as soon possible.

 

[swede2]

WSU and OSU now appear to have a temporary scheduling agreement with the WCC for non-FB sports. Are they paying MW and WCC for these agreements? If you're either conference, or a school that's probably not getting an invite to join a new conference any time soon, do you start to wonder who's going to be left once WSU and OSU reformulates the Pacific Athletic Conference? This is an interesting play by the PAC 2.

 

[Some guy]

WSU and OSU now appear to have a temporary scheduling agreement with the WCC for non-FB sports. Are they paying MW and WCC for these agreements? If you're either conference, or a school that's probably not getting an invite to join a new conference any time soon, do you start to wonder who's going to be left once WSU and OSU reformulates the Pacific Athletic Conference? This is an interesting play by the PAC 2.

I would guess that teams aren’t screwing themselves

But then again the playoff committee made up of mostly non sec reps screwed themselved to get the SEC into the playoff. So maybe they are just screwing themselves

 

[MaxyJR1]

 

[swede2]

I would guess that teams aren’t screwing themselves

But then again the playoff committee made up of mostly non sec reps screwed themselved to get the SEC into the playoff. So maybe they are just screwing themselves

I think academic institutions have a pretty good track record of late screwing themselves when it comes to athletic arrangements. See ACC GOR. See also all things PAC-12.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I saw a story that said the Mountain West was supposedly working on an agreement with the PAC-2 for other sports, but they didn't have enough time to get it put together.

here's more from ESPN:

Oregon State and Washington State are nearing an agreement to join the West Coast Conference as affiliate members next year in multiple sports, most notably men's and women's basketball, sources told ESPN, confirming multiple reports.

It is an agreement similar to the one the schools reached with the Mountain West to play six football games against MW teams next year but with a major difference. While the Beavers' and Cougars' games against MW schools in football will not count toward the conference standings, there is an expectation their games will count toward the standings for other sports in the WCC. They are also expected to be eligible to participate in conference tournaments and eligible to represent the WCC in NCAA championship events.

OSU and WSU intend to rebuild the Pac-12 and will keep the conference's branding on their football fields next season despite operating as a two-team conference.

For a conference to exist, the NCAA requires "at least seven active Division I members," all of which must sponsor men's and women's basketball, and for the conference to sponsor at least 12 Division I sports, among other requirements. In the case of departures, the bylaws allow a conference a two-year grace period in which it can exist without the minimum number of schools.

The WCC agreement, like the one in football, is viewed as a short-term solution that will buy the schools time to rebuild the Pac-12. There had been similar discussions with the MW for an affiliate agreement beyond football, but those talks fell through, sources said.

 

[MplsGopher]

New PAC not until 2026 and I don’t think a fair number of current MWC schools are on the short list. Particularly a school like Wyoming, could be working very hard and pissed off, and be trying to screw things up out of spite.

New Mexico might be another.

 

[MplsGopher]

I saw a story that said the Mountain West was supposedly working on an agreement with the PAC-2 for other sports, but they didn't have enough time to get it put together.

There had been similar discussions with the MW for an affiliate agreement beyond football, but those talks fell through, sources said.

Tough for me to buy that the talks fell apart …. simply because they ran out of time.

 

[swede2]

Tough for me to buy that the talks fell apart …. simply because they ran out of time.

I tend to agree. If I'm bottom tier MWC, I'm pumping the breaks on any more cooperation until the PAC 2 guarantee that if they come for any of us, they're coming for all of us.

 

[Ope3]

Tough for me to buy that the talks fell apart …. simply because they ran out of time.

I can sort of buy it, the other non-football Fall sports start in 7-8 months, schedules (for the teams and TV partners) need to be made, budgets created, arenas-venues booked, travel accommodations...does not seem so easy.

I certainly understand a deadline of around now.

 

[MplsGopher]

I can sort of buy it, the other non-football Fall sports start in 7-8 months, schedules (for the teams and TV partners) need to be made, budgets created, arenas-venues booked, travel accommodations...does not seem so easy.

I certainly understand a deadline of around now.

Sure … but they got it done with the WCC, on a shorter negotiation that started later?

 

[MplsGopher]

I tend to agree. If I'm bottom tier MWC, I'm pumping the breaks on any more cooperation until the PAC 2 guarantee that if they come for any of us, they're coming for all of us.

Right. Be interesting if schools like Nevada Reno, Wyoming, and New Mexico, all state flagships, can force their way in, perhaps using political pressure. Hawaii for that matter, football only to pair with Gonzaga.

 

[Ope3]

Sure … but they got it done with the WCC, on a shorter negotiation that started later?

I just presumed they were taking bids/negotiating with both the MWC & WCC concurrently.