What would better free throw shooting get us?

[CPTMidnight]

During the season we were the worst free throw shooting team in the country at roughly 62.5%. All other things being equal what would have happened if we shot the NCAA median percentage of 72.8% for the entire league during the season? Or even if we had the league best percentage of 83.3% (Villanova). I ran the numbers.

Actual percentage of 62.13% - Record 8-21 (2-17 within conference)
League Median percentage of 72.80% - Record of 8-21 (2-17 within conference) No change
League Best Percentage of 83.3% - Record of 9-19 with a Win here with Wisconsin and the Indiana game going to OT (3-16-1 within conference)

None of the of the other results would have been impacted. Why did I run these numbers? Not sure but it does show that Ben had bigger issues to deal with than Free throws. Free throw shooting was absolutely a non-factor which is really not good if you think about it. (almost feels better if we could say that fixing free throws gains us 5 B1G wins)

 

[cjbfbp]

None of the of the other results would have been impacted. Why did I run these numbers? Not sure but it does show that Ben had bigger issues to deal with than Free throws. Free throw shooting was absolutely a non-factor which is really not good if you think about it. (almost feels better if we could say that fixing free throws gains us 5 B1G wins)

Obviously, the team had multiple issues but free throw shots are the only ones where you don't face a defense. An analysis like this doesn't consider how a team could have played differently in the final minutes of a game if they had been down by 2 points instead of 6 points because of poor free throw shooting. Attacking the basket and getting fouled is a very good strategy for a team that hits these attempts at a high rate but not nearly as good for one that doesn't.

Sure, we had lots of games where the losing margin exceeded what ground could have been made up by better free throw shooting but not trying hard to eliminate bad free throw shooting is just plain negligence.

 

[GopherLaundry2013]

During the season we were the worst free throw shooting team in the country at roughly 62.5%. All other things being equal what would have happened if we shot the NCAA median percentage of 72.8% for the entire league during the season? Or even if we had the league best percentage of 83.3% (Villanova). I ran the numbers.

Actual percentage of 62.13% - Record 8-21 (2-17 within conference)
League Median percentage of 72.80% - Record of 8-21 (2-17 within conference) No change
League Best Percentage of 83.3% - Record of 9-19 with a Win here with Wisconsin and the Indiana game going to OT (3-16-1 within conference)

None of the of the other results would have been impacted. Why did I run these numbers? Not sure but it does show that Ben had bigger issues to deal with than Free throws. Free throw shooting was absolutely a non-factor which is really not good if you think about it. (almost feels better if we could say that fixing free throws gains us 5 B1G wins)

It may not have had any significant impact on our record, but free throws are literally the easiest thing to practice in almost any sport, which to me shows lack of effort and/or discipline. That is why they're called "FREE" throws.

Compound that to the fact that this team did not do one thing well this season on either side of the floor and it becomes more frustrating that they can't even make a bucket with no one guarding them. You could get people in the stands who are better free throw shooters than half our team, who were recruited to play at the highest level of amateur basketball, and that is concerning.

 

[Bad Gopher]

Good analysis, but this is an inherently dicey thing to analyze because of all the what-ifs. What if Battle makes both the tying free throws the other night? The game is tied, and it's a totally different script the rest of the way.

To do a deeper analytical dive, you'd have to take teams' KenPom and run multiple simulations using the modified FT percentage. That would give you a truer indication how important it was.

 

[upnorthkid]

Good analysis, but this is an inherently dicey thing to analyze because of all the what-ifs. What if Battle makes both the tying free throws the other night? The game is tied, and it's a totally different script the rest of the way.

To do a deeper analytical dive, you'd have to take teams' KenPom and run multiple simulations using the modified FT percentage. That would give you a truer indication how important it was.

yep agree. a FT earlier in the game that leads to a tie/closer game down the stretch entirely alters game theory/strategy. Can't just add a point here or there. We were also #266 in attempts. Some of that is we were losing all year, some of it is we're a jump shooting team. Whether that's coaching in part because of how poor they shoot FTs, who knows. But if you hit them at a higher percentage, it also changes how teams defend you

 

[CPTMidnight]

Good analysis, but this is an inherently dicey thing to analyze because of all the what-ifs. What if Battle makes both the tying free throws the other night? The game is tied, and it's a totally different script the rest of the way.

To do a deeper analytical dive, you'd have to take teams' KenPom and run multiple simulations using the modified FT percentage. That would give you a truer indication how important it was.

You are right that I am being simplistic but the vast majority of the games were never going to be impacted in any way - Wisky was one exception.

 

[Bad Gopher]

You are right that I am being simplistic but the vast majority of the games were never going to be impacted in any way - Wisky was one exception.

I think what your analysis and upnorthkid's insight tells us is that it might not have been as impactful as one might presume. Still, if you're better at it, you could try to get to the stripe more often, and then it becomes more important. There were definitely times late in games this year when I was hoping our guys wouldn't get fouled.

 

[upnorthkid]

You are right that I am being simplistic but the vast majority of the games were never going to be impacted in any way - Wisky was one exception.

PSU @ home down the stretch while down 5, Garcia missed a pair of FTs w/ just under 2 min left. PSU hits a 3 and it's an 8 pt game instead of 3. Battle misses 1/2 next possession and the game is over.

@ Michigan, down 4 with 35 seconds left, Cooper misses 1/2 FTs and we can't get close again.

Loss to IU they were 8/14 from the line and lost by 4. @ WI 7/11 and lost by 3. Shooting an abysmal percentage absolutely changes the dynamic down the stretch. That said, I agree completely that it's not the "reason" we lost any of these games aside from perhaps the last WI game. But is should be able to be improved on whether it's a focus on form, mental focus/psychology, or improving conditioning/having a deeper bench (it's tougher to shoot FTs while gassed)

 

[upnorthkid]

I think what your analysis and upnorthkid's insight tells us is that it might not have been as impactful as one might presume. Still, if you're better at it, you could try to get to the stripe more often, and then it becomes more important. There were definitely times late in games this year when I was hoping our guys wouldn't get fouled.

like basically any time payne touched the ball down the stretch (OSU absolutely an example)

 

[GoodasGold]

You are right that I am being simplistic but the vast majority of the games were never going to be impacted in any way - Wisky was one exception.

We all knew it would bite us sooner or later. On a similar note, what did the kid win for his half-court toss during halftime?

 

[topos]

Interesting analysis, and thanks for taking the time to do it!

As others have pointed out, it is a bit of a wormhole when you start to ponder how the games would have played out in a tie game vs. one possession, or one possession vs. two possession, etc.

I think the effect of missed free throws was perhaps more intangible.

You could hear the collective groan of the Williams Arena faithful after every clank, and it just seemed like we could never close a gap with such a blatant deficiency. It felt like any positive momentum was immediately neutralized when we missed free throws.

When we're ranked #240 in KenPom Offensive Efficiency, you can't be the country's worst free throw shooting team. You can't convince me this wasn't in players' heads as the season went on.

 

[GopherBlood777]

Interesting analysis, and thanks for taking the time to do it!

As others have pointed out, it is a bit of a wormhole when you start to ponder how the games would have played out in a tie game vs. one possession, or one possession vs. two possession, etc.

I think the effect of missed free throws was perhaps more intangible.

You could hear the collective groan of the Williams Arena faithful after every clank, and it just seemed like we could never close a gap with such a blatant deficiency. It felt like any positive momentum was immediately neutralized when we missed free throws.

When we're ranked #240 in KenPom Offensive Efficiency, you can't be the country's worst free throw shooting team. You can't convince me this wasn't in players' heads as the season went on.

The momentum factor is real

 

[bga1]

I think we would have won perhaps two more games or so if we were a good free throw team. It didn't turn too many games this year because we usually got beat fairly badly. If we get better next year, it could cost us a lot more games because we are going to have to win close ones to have a good record.

 

[Otis]

Free throw shooting is important but not as important as offensive execution.

Would you be surprised that we took less shots than our opponent in 14 of 19 B1G games?

Hard to win when you take less shots than your opponent. Or is it? We took 10 less shots than OSU in our first win and 1 less shot than Rutgers. We took 7 more shots than Maryland in the second game and lost by 18! After getting 25 less shots in the first MD game. Amazingly, we only lost to Iowa by 13 despite Iowa taking 26 more shots!

Overall, we took 94 less shots in league play for an average of 5 less shots per game.

Lost possessions are horrible in basketball.

To even make it worse, I believe we had a large % of bad shots in there.

 

[bga1]

Free throw shooting is important but not as important as offensive execution.

Would you be surprised that we took less shots than our opponent in 14 of 19 B1G games?

Hard to win when you take less shots than your opponent. Or is it? We took 10 less shots than OSU in our first win and 1 less shot than Rutgers. We took 7 more shots than Maryland in the second game and lost by 18! After getting 25 less shots in the first MD game. Amazingly, we only lost to Iowa by 13 despite Iowa taking 26 more shots!

Overall, we took 94 less shots in league play for an average of 5 less shots per game.

Lost possessions are horrible in basketball.

To even make it worse, I believe we had a large % of bad shots in there.

Bad defensive rebounding and turnovers....

 

[MUgopher32]

Free throw % is one of the most irrelevent stats in college bball

FT Rate much more relevent.

 

[Dakota2]

During the season we were the worst free throw shooting team in the country at roughly 62.5%. All other things being equal what would have happened if we shot the NCAA median percentage of 72.8% for the entire league during the season? Or even if we had the league best percentage of 83.3% (Villanova). I ran the numbers.

Actual percentage of 62.13% - Record 8-21 (2-17 within conference)
League Median percentage of 72.80% - Record of 8-21 (2-17 within conference) No change
League Best Percentage of 83.3% - Record of 9-19 with a Win here with Wisconsin and the Indiana game going to OT (3-16-1 within conference)

None of the of the other results would have been impacted. Why did I run these numbers? Not sure but it does show that Ben had bigger issues to deal with than Free throws. Free throw shooting was absolutely a non-factor which is really not good if you think about it. (almost feels better if we could say that fixing free throws gains us 5 B1G wins)

Fixing it would likely bring more wins than stats indicate. Made free throws early changes complexion of the game and provides emotional lift. Made late even bigger difference. Good ff shooting changes opponents defensive strategy.

 

[Otis]

Face facts, the really hard part in analyzing this season is finding a favorable statistic!

I don’t think there is one.

 

[indygopher]

Another consideration, how many more free throw opportunities could we have had if we hit a higher percent on the front end of 1 and 1s?

 

[forever a gopher]

Bad defensive rebounding and turnovers....

This one just boggles my mind. It's not uncommon for the Gophers to run the 4 F 1 G lineup out there, and many teams run a 4G / 1 F or certainly 3 G / 2 F lineup, and we still can't out-rebound them. Add in the fact that our only PG has really good size for a PG, and it just makes you scratch your head. Makes you really miss Jordan Murphy.

 

[cjbfbp]

Free throw % is one of the most irrelevent stats in college bball

FT Rate much more relevent.

Everything is relevant. FT rate may be more relevant (also helps to get opposing players in foul trouble) but if you go to the line a lot but miss half of them, you've blown a fair share of your opportunities.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

This assumes that the score of the game during the game doesn’t matter. Instead of being down 6, if you make both on a 1 and 1, you’re down 4. That changes the game. This method is insanely flawed.

 

[Dakota2]

Everything is relevant. FT rate may be more relevant (also helps to get opposing players in foul trouble) but if you go to the line a lot but miss half of them, you've blown a fair share of your opportunities.

Missing both or the front end of one and one is no different than a turnover.

 

[Ewert86PC]

The simplest answer is this.

Free throws are unimpeded shot opportunities. This percentage reflects the number of baskets you would make if no one was in your face when you take a shot.

From that percentage you can extrapolate other percentages based on location and intensity of coverage.

If you can't make a high percentage of your shots unguarded, how much worse is it when you have someone covering you?

I think our shooting stats bear that out.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

We got blown out so often that no one thing would have made a difference in a lot of those games. If we were in more close games, the misses would have hurt more. Bottom line is we need to fix almost every facet of our game if we are going to be a competitive team.

 

[Big Dawg]

We got blown out so often that no one thing would have made a difference in a lot of those games. If we were in more close games, the misses would have hurt more. Bottom line is we need to fix almost every facet of our game if we are going to be a competitive team.

The bold is the scary part. If we just had holes in the lineup, or a bad recruiting year, or injuries I wouldn't be as worried. Our problem in my opinion is Ben. If you have less talented players, at least they could hustle. Shaq sucked at FT's but other aspects of his game were strong. We literally do nothing even average. We are far below average in literally any measurable stat. When I look at our individual players I see some decent talent. If you look at their recruiting profiles and them as individuals-not Gophers players-I don't see non D1 players. If you took a respected, seasoned, successful D1 coach and gave him our roster(with no knowledge of their crappy Gopher play) I believe that coach could do something decent with that team. I'm not saying they would win the BIG or even be in the top 4-5 but they could be decent. Obviously I'm biased but looking at WI roster the other night, I don't see better talent. If you switched roster's and gave each coach 3 weeks with their new players, Gard's team would beat Ben's team. I hope that Ben can somehow figure it out. He seems like a decent guy. Just feel he is out of his league.

 

[MUgopher32]

Everything is relevant. FT rate may be more relevant (also helps to get opposing players in foul trouble) but if you go to the line a lot but miss half of them, you've blown a fair share of your opportunities.

No free throw % truly does not matter.

You would have to filter out basically every other stat before ever focusing on it.

This thread is a perfect example for anyone who didnt know this already

 

[cjbfbp]

No free throw % truly does not matter.

You would have to filter out basically every other stat before ever focusing on it.

This thread is a perfect example for anyone who didnt know this already

Actually, your comments are indicative of someone who doesn't understand numbers and their relevance. The fact that free throw shooting percentage may be less important on average (in a statistical sense) than multiple other measures does not mean that it isn't important in certain situations and, if you have enough of those situations, that lower correlating number can make a significant difference to your bottom line results (winning or losing). For example, you could have 8% of typical party voters who defect in a particular election whereas the normal rate of defection is only 5%. That small differential can end up turning the election if it is close enough.

By the way, I have significant training in statistics and quantitative analysis in my background (I'd say more than 95% of the population anyway) and I've taught statistics at least a half a dozen times in my life so you're not talking to the uninitiated.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

The simplest answer is this.

Free throws are unimpeded shot opportunities. This percentage reflects the number of baskets you would make if no one was in your face when you take a shot.

From that percentage you can extrapolate other percentages based on location and intensity of coverage.

If you can't make a high percentage of your shots unguarded, how much worse is it when you have someone covering you?

I think our shooting stats bear that out.

As a team—maybe. But free throw shooting doesn’t determine other shooting percentages because not all shots are equal—regardless of the defense.

Look at what Shaq shot from the field as opposed to free throws. Many instances like this including with otherwise good shooters who simply sucked at free throws.

 

[Ewert86PC]

As a team—maybe. But free throw shooting doesn’t determine other shooting percentages because not all shots are equal—regardless of the defense.

Look at what Shaq shot from the field as opposed to free throws. Many instances like this including with otherwise good shooters who simply sucked at free throws.

If you can't make a high percentage of shots, unguarded, from fifteen feet out, then you better have hyper-aggressive big men who gobble up every rebound and put it back. The Gophers lack both kinds of players, based on this season's statistics.

This is why our identity is empty possessions.