We want Wisky over Iowa right?

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I don’t know which is preferable, really. But if Iowa wins, it’s kind of a parallel to primary politics - or “Survivor” . . . fully eliminate an adversary, or a rival, one by one.

Ergo, I may be rooting for the Hogeyes 🤮

Either way, let’s just beat Northwestern!!
 




spermophilus said:
I don’t know which is preferable, really. But if Iowa wins, it’s kind of a parallel to primary politics - or “Survivor” . . . fully eliminate an adversary, or a rival, one by one.

Ergo, I may be rooting for the Hogeyes 🤮

Either way, let’s just beat Northwestern!!
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This.

A Badger win basically means the Gophers have to beat BOTH Iowa and Wisconsin or they'll lose a tie breaker to either (assuming they both win out). An Iowa win means beating the Hawkeyes pretty much makes the Badger game meaningless standings wise, again, assuming each team defeats the teams they should.
 
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All the arguments were already made in the other thread. Both sides have valid, and fair arguments.


My vote is for Wisc to win. Otherwise, it (likely) forces the defacto West title game to be in Iowa City and put that "extra" pressure on the game. I don't want them to have that huge home advantage.

Wisc wins, and then even if we lose at IC, there are still reasonable routes where we can win the West.

Iowa wins, and we're locked in. If we lose at IC, game over man.
 

SelectionSunday said:
This is absolutely the correct answer.

If the Badgers beat Iowa and the Gophers win the next 3, that guarantees Gophers AT ABSOLUTE WORST will be playing for the West championship on their home field on the last day of the regular season.

On Wisconsin! (throw up in my mouth)
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If Iowa beats Wisconsin though, and the Gophers win the next 3, I think they can clinch the bid to Indy by beating Indiana, and have it locked up before the Minnesota/Wisconsin game even takes place.

Other than the games against each other, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa have the remaining schedules:

Minnesota:

@Northwestern
Illinois
@Indiana

Iowa:

@Northwestern
Illinois
@Nebraska

Wisconsin:

@Rutgers
Northwestern
Nebraska

I would think Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will be favorites in most of these games, with possible exceptions of Indiana being favored over Minnesota, and Nebraska being favored over Iowa. If you assume Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa win all of these games, that gives you

Minnesota (6-1)
Iowa (6-1)
Wisconsin (5-2)

If Iowa beats Wisconsin, you get

Iowa (7-1)
Minnesota (6-1)
Wisconsin (5-3)

Minnesota then just has to beat Iowa, to get to

Minnesota (7-1 with head to head tiebreaker over Iowa)
Iowa (7-2)
Wisconsin (5-3)

Minnesota then goes to Indy regardless of whether they beat Wisconsin, and the only thing on the line is the Axe itself, obviously very important in its own right, and then winning the division outright vs. tying for 1st with Iowa.

If Wisconsin beats Iowa, you get

Minnesota (6-1)
Wisconsin (6-2 with tiebreaker over Iowa)
Iowa (6-2)

From here, Minnesota has to beat both Iowa and Wisconsin, as a split would put Minnesota at 7-2, losing a tiebreaker to 7-2 Wisconsin or 7-2 Iowa, depending on who the Gophers lose to.



TL;DR Assuming Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are likely to win all of their remaining games except for the games against each other, Iowa beating Wisconsin means Minnesota only has to beat Iowa, and can afford a loss to Wisconsin. If Wisconsin beats Iowa, Minnesota will have to beat Wisconsin, and either also beat Iowa, or hope Iowa loses another game, presumably @Nebraska. Minnesota can go to Indy with a 7-2 Big Ten record if Iowa beats Wisconsin and Minnesota beats Iowa, while Wisconsin beating Iowa makes it more likely the Gophers have to beat both Iowa and Wisconsin and get to 8-1 to go to Indy.

Looking back again, Wisconsin beating Iowa would give Minnesota sole possession of 1st place for this week alone, but probably a tougher road to Indy, but also maybe a greater chance of at least tying for 1st in the division, if tying for 1st but not going to Indy is important to you.
 
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Cayman said:
Assuming Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are likely to win all of their remaining games except for the games against each other, Iowa beating Wisconsin means Minnesota only has to beat Iowa, and can afford a loss to Wisconsin.
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Correct, with that assumption. This is the singular argument for Iowa over Wisc.

But, I think, it very much glosses over the fact of what a massive lift it will be to go into Iowa City and win there for the West title.


As far as the assumption goes ... I don't think it completely unreasonable that Nebraska could rise to the occasion and beat Iowa in Lincoln on T-giving rivalry week (final week of the regular season), while we hopefully also get it done at home for the Axe.
 



Let's just beat them both, that's what I want.
 



GopherWeatherGuy said:
Go Iowa.

And remember, Northwestern has beaten Iowa 4 of the last 5 seasons, and 10 of the last 15.
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anything can happen when the winning team is likely to score under 20 points. first to block 2 punts wins.
 



#2Gopher said:
Man, I want Nebraska to lose too! But if Nebraska wins, then Frost hangs around for a bit longer!
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Boy, you are ambidextrous! Frost can choke Wiscy and Iowa for us while holding him with one hand. You can give Frost a gasp of air with the other hand by choking him enough to make him useful.
 

SelectionSunday said:
This is absolutely the correct answer.

If the Badgers beat Iowa and the Gophers win the next 3, that guarantees Gophers AT ABSOLUTE WORST will be playing for the West championship on their home field on the last day of the regular season.

On Wisconsin! (throw up in my mouth)
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That sure worked out well the last time that happened 😬
 

MplsGopher said:
Correct, with that assumption. This is the singular argument for Iowa over Wisc.

But, I think, it very much glosses over the fact of what a massive lift it will be to go into Iowa City and win there for the West title.


As far as the assumption goes ... I don't think it completely unreasonable that Nebraska could rise to the occasion and beat Iowa in Lincoln on T-giving rivalry week (final week of the regular season), while we hopefully also get it done at home for the Axe.
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Do you want to be relying on Nebraska?
 


Division Championship Odds

Big 10 West

TeamChamp. Odds
Minnesota47.2%
Iowa37.4%
Wisconsin5.8%
Purdue1.9%


With Minnesota's win and Purdue's loss, the Gilded Rodents are now favored to win the West. This remains the case even though Iowa is favored to beat Minnesota head-to-head. This tells me two things. One, Iowa's odds in that game are not overwhelming, and BizarroMath thinks Minnesota is going to finish stronger than Iowa will. Minnesota's win over Nebraska looms large here, as the Cornhuskers are favored over both Iowa and Wisconsin in BizarroMath. A lot of streaks stand poised to come to an ugly, gut-wrenching end this year, including Iowa's long streaks against both Minnesota and Nebraska.

If Iowa loses to Wisconsin this weekend, you can expect the Hawkeye to drop to 3rd or 4th place and be effectively eliminated from the B1G West hunt. What a difference two weeks can make.

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Unregistered User said:
wisconsin fans will experience more agony than iowa fans with a loss this Saturday.

Therefore, I want wisconsin to lose.
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Maybe true but seeing two Ferentz in agony is worth more than all Beckys everywhere.
 


SPEGOPHER said:
I care so much more about beating those teams than winning the West. I get that there is a ton of overlap there, but if you gave me the option to win both and not win the West, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
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I'd rather have a shot at winning the Big Ten Championship
 
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SelectionSunday said:
This is absolutely the correct answer.

If the Badgers beat Iowa and the Gophers win the next 3, that guarantees Gophers AT ABSOLUTE WORST will be playing for the West championship on their home field on the last day of the regular season.

On Wisconsin! (throw up in my mouth)
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I'm not sure about this.

If the Gophers win the next three as you suggest (big if frankly), and Iowa beats Wisconsin, we could clinch the west with the win in Iowa City, and would 100% win the west by winning EITHER at Indiana OR at home against Wisconsin. If Wisconsin beats Iowa, then we would likely have to beat BOTH Indiana AND Wisconsin to win the West.
 
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USAF said:
Nobody is relying on Nebraska. Nebraska beating Iowa would be an alternative route to Indy should the Gophers lose at Iowa.
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Umm, it doesn't become an alternate route -- it becomes the ONLY route if MN loses to Iowa and beats Wisconsin. The other path under your desired outcome of a Wisconsin win this weekend would be Minnesota beating Iowa AND Wisconsin. We all obviously want that to happen, but unlike some others I guess I'd rather MN play Iowa for all the marbles in two weeks and not worry about the Wisconsin game or the Iowa-Neb game. But hey, none of us have any control over any of it so root for whoever. Hopefully MN wins out anyway!
 

MGGopher said:
I'd rather MN play Iowa for all the marbles in two weeks and not worry about the Wisconsin game or the Iowa-Neb game.
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This is the argument, for your side. It is valid and fair, and not in any way wrong. (I think)


I just disagree that it's an "easier" path to force all the marbles to be on the game in Iowa City. And it gives us no room for error.
 

MGGopher said:
Umm, it doesn't become an alternate route -- it becomes the ONLY route if MN loses to Iowa and beats Wisconsin.
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Again, you have things backwards. If Iowa beats Wisconsin, there is pretty much NO OTHER route to Indy other than beating Iowa at Iowa. There is no "alternate path."
 

Cayman said:
If Iowa beats Wisconsin though, and the Gophers win the next 3, I think they can clinch the bid to Indy by beating Indiana, and have it locked up before the Minnesota/Wisconsin game even takes place.

Other than the games against each other, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa have the remaining schedules:

Minnesota:

@Northwestern
Illinois
@Indiana

Iowa:

@Northwestern
Illinois
@Nebraska

Wisconsin:

@Rutgers
Northwestern
Nebraska

I would think Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will be favorites in most of these games, with possible exceptions of Indiana being favored over Minnesota, and Nebraska being favored over Iowa. If you assume Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa win all of these games, that gives you

Minnesota (6-1)
Iowa (6-1)
Wisconsin (5-2)

If Iowa beats Wisconsin, you get

Iowa (7-1)
Minnesota (6-1)
Wisconsin (5-3)

Minnesota then just has to beat Iowa, to get to

Minnesota (7-1 with head to head tiebreaker over Iowa)
Iowa (7-2)
Wisconsin (5-3)

Minnesota then goes to Indy regardless of whether they beat Wisconsin, and the only thing on the line is the Axe itself, obviously very important in its own right, and then winning the division outright vs. tying for 1st with Iowa.

If Wisconsin beats Iowa, you get

Minnesota (6-1)
Wisconsin (6-2 with tiebreaker over Iowa)
Iowa (6-2)

From here, Minnesota has to beat both Iowa and Wisconsin, as a split would put Minnesota at 7-2, losing a tiebreaker to 7-2 Wisconsin or 7-2 Iowa, depending on who the Gophers lose to.



TL;DR Assuming Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are likely to win all of their remaining games except for the games against each other, Iowa beating Wisconsin means Minnesota only has to beat Iowa, and can afford a loss to Wisconsin. If Wisconsin beats Iowa, Minnesota will have to beat Wisconsin, and either also beat Iowa, or hope Iowa loses another game, presumably @Nebraska. Minnesota can go to Indy with a 7-2 Big Ten record if Iowa beats Wisconsin and Minnesota beats Iowa, while Wisconsin beating Iowa makes it more likely the Gophers have to beat both Iowa and Wisconsin and get to 8-1 to go to Indy.

Looking back again, Wisconsin beating Iowa would give Minnesota sole possession of 1st place for this week alone, but probably a tougher road to Indy, but also maybe a greater chance of at least tying for 1st in the division, if tying for 1st but not going to Indy is important to you.
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Yes
 


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