To Feel Safe & Comfy Heading To Big Ten Tournament

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SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER OHIO STATE GAME:

Gophers are 11-8, 5-4. 11 games remain. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining games vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Win 1 of Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (1 win)

Beat Spartacus.
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I feel good about or chances of getting at least 2 from Key #3
 

SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER OHIO STATE GAME:

Gophers are 11-8, 5-4. 11 games remain. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining games vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Win 1 of Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (1 win)

Beat Spartacus.
Click to expand...
This seems much more doable after today.
 



One game at a time. Great win last night, let's carry that energy home and Kick Sparty A$$
 


Using SS's original matrix at the start of this thread. (Reformatting for my own enjoyment).


Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1 (Sweep these 4)
Indiana, Northwestern, @Indiana, Nebraska

Key #2 (Win 2)
Penn State, Wisconsin, @Penn St, @Wisconsin

Key #3 (Win 2)
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland




I'm a visual guy.
 
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The Athletic has a new bracket out this morning. 12 teams from the BT in the bracket. None in the last 4 in even. Minn and Indiana were both in the last 4 byes.
 

SelectionSunday said:
To feel "safe" about a NCAA bid heading to Indianapolis (17-13, 11-9), here's one general path. Obviously, there are other similar combos that would work, too, but this one I think seems the most doable & least intimidating.

14 games remain, currently 9-7, 3-3. Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (that's 4 wins)

Key #2
Split with Penn State & Wisconsin (that's 2 wins)

Key #3
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (that's 2 wins)

As you can see, I've built in a smidgen of wiggle room under each of the 3 keys. So if the Gophers fall short in one, they can still make up for it in the others.
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Key #4
Win 1 of the B1G Tourney
 

SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER OHIO STATE GAME:

Gophers are 11-8, 5-4. 11 games remain. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Key #1
Win 1 of Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (1 win)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Fear not, people, if the Gophers complete one of the 3 keys, I will adjust the keys accordingly, tweak as needed.

Beat Spartacus.
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When you established this set of criteria at the start of this thread, what was your logic behind stating they would be "safe and comfy"? You mentioned Vanderbilt (I believe) as precedent for a similar resume. But the Gophers would still have a pretty mediocre record obviously. Is your confidence based on x number of Quad 1 wins? No bad losses? A projection of what their NET would look like? Other factors? Just curious what you base your opinion on.
 



Gopherholefan said:
The Athletic has a new bracket out this morning. 12 teams from the BT in the bracket. None in the last 4 in even. Minn and Indiana were both in the last 4 byes.
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Will be interesting to see how the Bracket Matrix moves once the Ohio State win is reflected in current projections.
 

Gopherholefan said:
The Athletic has a new bracket out this morning. 12 teams from the BT in the bracket. None in the last 4 in even. Minn and Indiana were both in the last 4 byes.
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In with Lunardi as well.
 

golfing18now said:
When you established this set of criteria at the start of this thread, what was your logic behind stating they would be "safe and comfy"? You mentioned Vanderbilt (I believe) as precedent for a similar resume. But the Gophers would still have a pretty mediocre record obviously. Is your confidence based on x number of Quad 1 wins? No bad losses? A projection of what their NET would look like? Other factors? Just curious what you base your opinion on.
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Mainly, based on the likelihood of just how many Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins they'll have (that would keep the NET strong) + the overall at-large landscape of college basketball (ACC, Big XII, and SEC all not as strong this season). I don't pay much attention to bad losses, and that has generally served me well.

My biggest concern about the Gophers is true road record. They took a step in the right direction there last night. Need to add a couple more, because I don't think it's prudent to expect them to win all their remaining home games.

Vanderbilt was a #9 seed in the 2017 NCAA Tournament with a 19-15 record. I think that's a scenario we could be looking at if Gophers (17-14 at worst if they lose BTT opener) find their way into the field.
 
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Livingat45north said:
Key #4
Win 1 of the B1G Tourney
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Not at 11-9. This year-that's top half of the Big Ten and we have a top ten schedule. We could lose in round 1 and still be in. That said, I actually think that this team could WIN the BTT if we get a first round bye. I just think that if this team is playing knowing that they are in, they might just light it up.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Mainly, based on the likelihood of just how many Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins they'll have (that would keep the NET strong) + the overall at-large landscape of college basketball (ACC, Big XII, and SEC all not as strong this season). I don't pay much attention to bad losses, and that has generally served me well.

My biggest concern about the Gophers is true road record. They took a step in the right direction there last night. Need to add a couple more, because I don't think it's prudent to think they'll win all their remaining home games.
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Thanks SelectionSunday. I always appreciate your contributions to this message board in general and your expertise on this subject in particular.
 




Key #3
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

guys... Indiana is a lot better than people think. 15-4 OA / 5-3 B10 Net ranking 42. Beat MSU last night and also has wins over OSU, Notre Dame, Florida State.

this is a split in my eyes. very hard to play at Indiana
 

SS - Thanks for this layout, I've been referencing it after every game.

Question that I don't know if it's possible to answer - What scenario puts us in the category of needing to win a game (or two) in the BT tourney? Is there a way of taking this and adding another scenario, or are there too many moving parts to be able to make that determination (who we would play first round, etc.)?
 

Gopherbbdude said:
Key #3
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

guys... Indiana is a lot better than people think. 15-4 OA / 5-3 B10 Net ranking 42. Beat MSU last night and also has wins over OSU, Notre Dame, Florida State.

this is a split in my eyes. very hard to play at Indiana
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Agreed, and it looks like most weighing in on Indiana think the sweep of IU is the least likely thing to happen on the list. I agree both because they have good players and Assembly Hall is a House of Horrors for most teams (MSU lost two straight there now). A Sweep of the Hoosiers would be monumental.

If I am remembering SS's response correctly, he included the Hoosier sweep as a mechanism to create distance between us and them. We have a much stronger SOS out of conference, but they have better wins. A sweep eliminates the need to decide which is more valuable by the committee.
 

Holy Man said:
If I am remembering SS's response correctly, he included the Hoosier sweep as a mechanism to create distance between us and them. We have a much stronger SOS out of conference, but they have better wins. A sweep eliminates the need to decide which is more valuable by the committee.
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Exactly Holy Man, that's why I chose Indiana as the sweep. .. I identified Hoosiers as the team most likely to share the bubble with the Gophers (though that's less likely now), making those two meetings especially important. Also note that I pointed out I built in some "wiggle room" for each "key". ... flexibility.

I've never for a second thought it would be easy to sweep Indiana, but I still think it's doable. Typically Gophers (and others) aren't going to get opponents' best shot like MSU does when they go on the road. It's human nature, certainly for the fans!
 

Our win at OSU was huge, and not only for our resume down the road. So much of sports is mental, and that is especially true on the road. I hope that win leads to more confident play away from Williams, and as a result, more wins.
 

mnhoopboy said:
I'd bet on them winning 2 of the Key #3s over sweeping Indiana.
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Agreed. I'll take our chances in any home game over winning in Bloomington. That's a hard place to win when they're bad, and they're not bad.
 

Gophers1992 said:
SS - Thanks for this layout, I've been referencing it after every game.

Question that I don't know if it's possible to answer - What scenario puts us in the category of needing to win a game (or two) in the BT tourney? Is there a way of taking this and adding another scenario, or are there too many moving parts to be able to make that determination (who we would play first round, etc.)?
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Too much work, but certainly there many other scenarios that will do the trick!

I will say if the Gophers finish 10-10 in the Big Ten, they'll need to do work in Indy. How many wins would they need with a 16-14 record? I would think 2 minimum. Making a general statement, I think they need to be at least 3 games over .500 on Selection Sunday.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Exactly Holy Man, that's why I chose Indiana as the sweep. .. I identified Hoosiers as the team most likely to share the bubble with the Gophers (though that's less likely now), making those two meetings especially important. Also note that I pointed out I built in some "wiggle room" for each "key". ... flexibility.

I've never for a second thought it would be easy to sweep Indiana, but I still think it's doable. Typically Gophers (and others) aren't going to get opponents' best shot like MSU does when they go on the road. It's human nature, certainly for the fans!
Click to expand...

So, who are you seeing sharing the bubble in the B1G now? I'm assuming you are elevating IU to off the bubble with the MSU win. For that matter, can you see down the line far enough to let us know what other power 5's we might share the bubble with in early March?

I do this every year, but as I look back, grabbing one or both of Utah/DePaul would be looking pretty good right now. Obviously, Butler would have been huge but not as realistic as those two.
 

SelectionSunday said:
If they're 17-13, 11-9 heading to Indy they won't need another win. They'll be playing to improve their NCAA tourney seeding. Anything less than that, that's another story.
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Thanks SS. Really like your threads. I was thinking more along the lines of them really having 12 games left in the season, the 12th one being first round of the tourney. That gives them another chance to pick up a win if it's needed.
 
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Since were talking Ncaa with this team, sure would be nice if we started to pack the barn. This team needs and deserves a little home cooking the rest of the year. Lets make the barn the place to go the next 2 months!
 

gophereric30 said:
Since were talking Ncaa with this team, sure would be nice if we started to pack the barn. This team needs and deserves a little home cooking the rest of the year. Lets make the barn the place to go the next 2 months!
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Agreed - the attendance has been meh. We need a full barn on Sunday!
 

Bryce Webster said:
Agreed - the attendance has been meh. We need a full barn on Sunday!
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Team is competitive. Team they are playing against is competitive.
Students are back on campus.
Weather doesn't appear to be an issue.
No Vikings game this Sunday.
Not one of those 8:00 starts which annoy some people.

Any other excuses? Fill the barn!
 

Holy Man said:
So, who are you seeing sharing the bubble in the B1G now? I'm assuming you are elevating IU to off the bubble with the MSU win. For that matter, can you see down the line far enough to let us know what other power 5's we might share the bubble with in early March?
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As of right now, the Gophers and Purdue are the ones I have most on the bubble, followed by Indiana. Not ready to lump Michigan & OSU with those 3, but if they keep losing in the next week, they'll join 'em. I actually think Purdue is the one in the most trouble despite beating us & MSU. I just don't think Boilers are that good, and I think they're gonna' start losing a lot of games. Plus, they only have 1 game remaining vs. Nebraska/Northwestern.

Some possible Power 6 (I Include Big East) bubble teams come March?

NC State
Virginia
Virginia Tech

DePaul (I still think they can get in the mix)
Georgetown
Xavier

Oklahoma
TCU

USC
Utah

Alabama
Mississippi State
Tennessee
 

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