To Feel Safe & Comfy Heading To Big Ten Tournament

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SelectionSunday

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To feel "safe" about a NCAA bid heading to Indianapolis (17-13, 11-9), here's one general path. Obviously, there are other similar combos that would work, too, but this one I think seems the most doable & least intimidating.

14 games remain, currently 9-7, 3-3. Need 8 wins, here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (that's 4 wins)

Key #2
Split with Penn State & Wisconsin (that's 2 wins)

Key #3
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (that's 2 wins)

As you can see, I've built in a smidgen of wiggle room under each of the 3 keys. So if the Gophers fall short in one, they can still make up for it in the others.
 



The meat & potatoes of the Gophers' resume so far:

NET: #41
Record: 9-7, 3-3
Road: 0-5
Road/Neutral: 1-6
vs. Quad 1/2: 3-7
vs. Quad 3/4: 6-0
Overall SOS: #7
Non-Conference SOS:
#13 Best 3 Wins: #16 Ohio State, #29 Michigan, vs. #69 Oklahoma State
 

Penn State currently has a NET of 35 and Rutgers is at 30. It would be huge if they can hold serve at home tomorrow and steal that game in New Jersey on Sunday. The following three games are murderer's row... @OSU, MSU, @ILL. Yikes...
 


SelectionSunday said:
The meat & potatoes of the Gophers' resume so far:

NET: #41
Record: 9-7, 3-3
Road: 0-5
Road/Neutral: 1-6
vs. Quad 1/2: 3-7
vs. Quad 3/4: 6-0
Overall SOS: #7
Non-Conference SOS:
#13 Best 3 Wins: #16 Ohio State, #29 Michigan, vs. #69 Oklahoma State
Click to expand...

At a glance if that resume is good enough to even get a sniff at the NCAA Tourney, my goodness the bubble must be really weak sauce.
 

Ope3 said:
At a glance if that resume is good enough to even get a sniff at the NCAA Tourney, my goodness the bubble must be really weak sauce.
Click to expand...

I think it's too early to tell on whether it'll be a weak or strong bubble. ... TBD.

Certainly should help teams like Gophers that ACC & SEC in particular are down this season. Big XII to a lesser extent, too.

Minus a ton of bid-stealers, there should be a lot more bids available for strong leagues like Big Ten & Big East, and even some of the strong mid/small majors if they dominate their league but don't earn auto bid (Liberty, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State, etc.).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Minus a ton of bid-stealers, there should be a lot more bids available for strong leagues like Big Ten & Big East, and even some of the strong mid/small majors if they dominate their league but don't earn auto bid (Liberty, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State, etc.).
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I say give Colgate some run...
 




SelectionSunday said:
Raiders headed for back to back titles and the glory days of Adonal Foyle? Maybe a trip to Omaha?
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I hope so, I have only seen them on TV once but they look as solid as last year and I would think their current Net of 123 would safely keep them out of Dayton.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The meat & potatoes of the Gophers' resume so far:

NET: #41
Record: 9-7, 3-3
Road: 0-5
Road/Neutral: 1-6
vs. Quad 1/2: 3-7
vs. Quad 3/4: 6-0
Overall SOS: #7
Non-Conference SOS:
#13 Best 3 Wins: #16 Ohio State, #29 Michigan, vs. #69 Oklahoma State
Click to expand...

How many at-large teams make it a year? Trying to get some context for the #41 NET ranking.

Feeling really good about our chances right now.

Edit: Looks like it is 36 at-large teams every year. Probably could have spent the 10 seconds to Google that before asking haha.
 

RubySuperior said:
How many at-large teams make it a year? Trying to get some context for the #41 NET ranking.

Feeling really good about our chances right now.

Edit: Looks like it is 36 at-large teams every year. Probably could have spent the 10 seconds to Google that before asking haha.
Click to expand...
36.
 

This is how the bottom end of the at-large pool would look for the NCAA Tournament if we based it strictly on NET rankings:

Last 4 In: #45 Oregon State, #46 Oklahoma, #47 Saint Louis, #49 Houston

First 8 Out: #50 Washington, #51 TCU, #52 Georgetown, #53 Florida, #54 Georgia, #55 NC State, #56 Xavier, #57 Mizzou

Just above the "Last 4 In", the #41 Gophers would be joined by #42 Marquette, #43 VCU, and #44 Saint Mary's.

I think all these teams are a solid representation of who the Gophers are competing with right now for at-large bids.
 



Unfortunate that Oklahoma St. has lost 5 out of the last 7. Is their star player still injured?
 

Parcival said:
Unfortunate that Oklahoma St. has lost 5 out of the last 7. Is their star player still injured?
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He's back, but Ok State still looks really ugly offensively.

Big game for the Cowboys tonight. Can't afford to lose to a middlin' Texas team in Stillwater.
 

Next 4 are in the win 2 of 6 category. Brace yourselves.

Go into Rutgers and win, the rest will seem a lot less doomsday.
 

UPDATED AFTER PENN STATE GAME:

Gophers are 10-7, 4-3. 13 games remain. Need 7 wins, here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining games vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Win 2 of @ Rutgers, @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (2 wins)

Beat Rutgers!
 


Gopherbbdude said:
Sweeping Indiania will not be an easy thing
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No, it won’t be easy.

The reason I have Hoosiers under “Key 1” is I think they’re the Big Ten opponent the Gophers are likely to be battling most directly for an at-large bid. Hence, a sweep would give Gophers a clear edge in that regard.
 

The way we are playing at home, I'm more confident we we will win 2 out of Key #2 or 3 out of Key #3 than sweep Indiana.

I'd be a good bit disappointed if we don't win 3 of the 4 home games against Wiscy, MSU, Iowa and Maryland.
 

The next four will define the trajectory of our season, in my opinion. Lose all four and the fire Pitino threads start anew. Win all four and builtbadgers' prediction of competing for the conference championship looks prophetic. Most likely somewhere in the middle?

Really tough stretch coming up here.
 

UPDATED AFTER RUTGERS GAME:

Gophers are 10-8, 4-4. 12 games remain. Need 7 wins, here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining games vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Win 2 of @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (2 wins)

Beat Ohio State.
 
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Things can change at a moments notice, but in order or ease of victory to get 7 more wins I'd go Nebraska/@Northwestern/Indiana/Iowa/Wisconsin/@Indiana/Maryland

I'd have @Ohio State or @Wisconsin as the next most likely win on the schedule so Wednesday isn't a must win by any means but it would at least provide a little margin for error. Certainly don't want to need the Michigan State game or @Illinois. I am not confident that this team will get at least 7 more wins, but it's certainly there for them.
 

EG#9 said:
Things can change at a moments notice, but in order or ease of victory to get 7 more wins I'd go Nebraska/@Northwestern/Indiana/Iowa/Wisconsin/@Indiana/Maryland

I'd have @Ohio State or @Wisconsin as the next most likely win on the schedule so Wednesday isn't a must win by any means but it would at least provide a little margin for error. Certainly don't want to need the Michigan State game or @Illinois. I am not confident that this team will get at least 7 more wins, but it's certainly there for them.
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You have @Penn State as the third least likely to win in your order?
 

golfing18now said:
You have @Penn State as the third least likely to win in your order?
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No, it should have been in the group with @Ohio State, @Wisconsin but I somehow neglected it. Penn State is certainly going to have that game circled after the handshake line confrontation. I really think those 3 games could be put in any order and I wouldn't have an issue with it.
 

Reality is that this group has too many holes to win on the road or become a factor in the B1G.

We have nothing upfront beyond Oturu and our shooting guards well...they can't shoot very well these days. I had hoped Ihnen would contribute the size and slash they so sorely lack, but he's been completely MIA. We have two high-level players in Carr and Oturu and not much else.
 

Block M said:
Reality is that this group has too many holes to win on the road or become a factor in the B1G.

We have nothing upfront beyond Oturu and our shooting guards well...they can't shoot very well these days. I had hoped Ihnen would contribute the size and slash they so sorely lack, but he's been completely MIA. We have two high-level players in Carr and Oturu and not much else.
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Facts. Willis only had 4 3-pointers last game. What a scrub.
 


SelectionSunday said:
UPDATED AFTER RUTGERS GAME:

Gophers are 10-8, 4-4. 12 games remain. Need 7 wins, here they are:

Key #1
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining games vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Win 2 of @ Ohio State, Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (2 wins)

Beat Ohio State.
Click to expand...

Big win tonight in SelectionSunday's keys to a bid. They should be on the mythical right side of the bubble for now, I would think.
 

UPDATED AFTER OHIO STATE GAME:

Gophers are 11-8, 5-4. 11 games remain. Need 6 wins. Here they are:

Key #1
Win 1 of Michigan State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Maryland (1 win)

Key #2
Win 1 of 3 remaining vs. Penn State & Wisconsin (1 win)

Key #3
Sweep Indiana + beat Northwestern & Nebraska (4 wins)

Fear not, people, if the Gophers complete one of the 3 keys, I will adjust the keys accordingly, tweak as needed.

Beat Spartacus.
 
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