The regression since the MSU game is crazy

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Plato said:
All teams have injury problems at this time of the season.
The teams that keep on winning have talent stacked in the three-deep, tOSU for example.
I suspect that right now a successful season for MN and WI fans would come down to the last game and who wins the AXE.
Going to any bowl would help because of the additional weeks of practice but the Rose Bowl is out of reach for both teams.
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I've been saying that for years as well, but wonder if it even matters. In normal years, the roster probably changes 30-40% just through normal atttrition and the addition of recruits.
 

bonin21 said:
And how many times has a team ranked 50+ in those rankings won a division in a power five?
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No clue but I see Northwestern is hanging around 47 and they have done it twice in recent years. Also teams 68, 70, 71, and 74 are all currently ranked in the top 25.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I've been saying that for years as well, but wonder if it even matters. In normal years, the roster probably changes 30-40% just through normal atttrition and the addition of recruits.
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It still matters. There will be roster turnover (more and more every year) but you will still have a lot of underclassmen that carryover. And those bowl practices really give you a chance to pass the torch to the younger guys and make it way more about them than it is during the season.
 

MNVCGUY said:
No doubt Iowa has had a tough schedule to date in terms of conference games and we clearly are not in a position to feel confident about facing anyone right now.

That said, the Iowa offense is terrible and the key to beating them is to play solid D and protect the football. Their offensive struggles are not really a function of who they have played, they have been bad on offense against everyone this year.
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When you get short fields (or turnover returns) like they do, what seems "bad" offense for others can be good enough for them.

Iowa had 277 yards against Rutgers, 281 against Michigan, and 222 against Illinois (more than we had). Rutgers had 361 against them (with 300 yards passing) but had 3 turnovers and lost 27-10. Illinois had 316 yards against them but had 3 turnovers and won by only 9-6 in a game that went to the final minutes.

I'm sure every one of Iowa's opponents this season went into that game saying "Don't turn the ball over!" but only Michigan and South Dakota State accomplished that. Ohio State had two turnovers but OSU can just erase their mistakes by prolific scoring.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Is it really "regression?"

Or is it simply a case of facing stronger opposition and not measuring up?

Gophers vs teams with losing records: 4-0
Gophers vs teams with winning records: 0-3

I think that tells the story.
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I think you nailed it right here. We have beaten 4 bad to really bad teams and lost to 3 good teams. After the MSU game everyone really felt like we had taken a big step & the national media was buzzing. They won't make that mistake again.
 


Without looking at other teams and just focused on the MN, part of the problem is motivation of players. I think we've kept guys around too long and been too loyal to some players. This caused competition to transfer and allowed guys to get comfortable.

Some of these 6-7 year guys are just getting school payed for and know there is no next level of play. Are they truly still as motivated as some of the young guys with the fire for the next level?

The years of playing all 4-5th year guys are gone and you better be recruiting at a high level and getting them on the field in 1-2 years. Fleck has done a nice job filling need through the portal, but recruiting needs to get better.

I like Fleck and think he is a really good fit at MN, but there is some real looking in the mirror that needs to be done at how to continue to build this program forward.

Outside of MO, the RB room is completely mismanaged.
If we didn't have the recruiting class coming in on OL, we'd be in a big world of hurt.
LB is hanging on by a thread.
 

If fans are acting like it's a lock we beat IA & WI because they are down this year, think again. Yes, those programs are down, but if you've been watching the Gophers lately you'll see that we are down, too. Who would normally have a better team in a down year, all things considered? I'd put my money on the traditional powers. We COULD win. We might win. We certainly have a 50-50 chance, but i don't see how we'll even score on Iowa. Mo is clearly still banged up and we have no talent behind him. Will he even be available against those teams?
 

cjbfbp said:
When you get short fields (or turnover returns) like they do, what seems "bad" offense for others can be good enough for them.

Iowa had 277 yards against Rutgers, 281 against Michigan, and 222 against Illinois (more than we had). Rutgers had 361 against them (with 300 yards passing) but had 3 turnovers and lost 27-10. Illinois had 316 yards against them but had 3 turnovers and won by only 9-6 in a game that went to the final minutes.

I'm sure every one of Iowa's opponents this season went into that game saying "Don't turn the ball over!" but only Michigan and South Dakota State accomplished that. Ohio State had two turnovers but OSU can just erase their mistakes by prolific scoring.
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And yet they sit at 3-4. They have a phenomenal defense but it is being wasted with an offense that is a complete joke. There are no "" around bad when talking about the Iowa offense this year.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Without looking at other teams and just focused on the MN, part of the problem is motivation of players. I think we've kept guys around too long and been too loyal to some players. This caused competition to transfer and allowed guys to get comfortable.

Some of these 6-7 year guys are just getting school payed for and know there is no next level of play. Are they truly still as motivated as some of the young guys with the fire for the next level?

The years of playing all 4-5th year guys are gone and you better be recruiting at a high level and getting them on the field in 1-2 years. Fleck has done a nice job filling need through the portal, but recruiting needs to get better.

I like Fleck and think he is a really good fit at MN, but there is some real looking in the mirror that needs to be done at how to continue to build this program forward.

Outside of MO, the RB room is completely mismanaged.
If we didn't have the recruiting class coming in on OL, we'd be in a big world of hurt.
LB is hanging on by a thread.
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The oldest guys, Morgan, CrAB, JMS & Mo are not the problem at all. I don't think it's a lack of motivation for the players, i think it's a lack of talent. Every school in the country is dealing with the extra covid years and older players. That's no excuse.

I also disagree about the portal use. I think we've done a poor job of bringing in really good players that can help. They have mostly been depth pieces that have played OK, at best.
 



tpbeight said:
The oldest guys, Morgan, CrAB, JMS & Mo are not the problem at all. I don't think it's a lack of motivation for the players, i think it's a lack of talent. Every school in the country is dealing with the extra covid years and older players. That's no excuse.

I also disagree about the portal use. I think we've done a poor job of bringing in really good players that can help. They have mostly been depth pieces that have played OK, at best.
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I agree. There is a reason guys are typically in the portal. They aren't as good as they think they are. We took an OL from Mich and Notre Dame that basically gave up on the competition they were in.

I agree that it's more about talent and recruiting, but I also think guys are/were too comfortable.
 

tpbeight said:
The oldest guys, Morgan, CrAB, JMS & Mo are not the problem at all. I don't think it's a lack of motivation for the players, i think it's a lack of talent. Every school in the country is dealing with the extra covid years and older players. That's no excuse.

I also disagree about the portal use. I think we've done a poor job of bringing in really good players that can help. They have mostly been depth pieces that have played OK, at best.
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Disagree on the portal part. Not every transfer you bring in is going to be a starter and we have found some really good players for us in the Portal over the past few years. This 2022 group has been a little disappointing but we did get 2 OL starters and Bishop has seen quite a bit of playing time.

Previous years has seen guys like Gibbens, Pinckney, Trickett, St-Juste, MDT, Williamson come in by way of the portal (probably missing some others).
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I agree. There is a reason guys are typically in the portal. They aren't as good as they think they are. We took an OL from Mich and Notre Dame that basically gave up on the competition they were in.

I agree that it's more about talent and recruiting, but I also think guys are/were too comfortable.
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The D line needed help from the portal this year. Big fail.
 




MNVCGUY said:
And yet they sit at 3-4. They have a phenomenal defense but it is being wasted with an offense that is a complete joke. There are no "" around bad when talking about the Iowa offense this year.
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They also have outstanding special teams. They're 1-3 in the conference by virtue of losing to three opponents with an 11-1 conference record. Their offense is not at all good but it can be good enough for them to win games if they get short fields (which they are very good at getting) against lower level opponents (a classification that includes us right now). We may not have lost as badly as they did to OSU (Iowa had a rare 6 turnovers in that game) but, based on how we've played the last three games, I think we might have lost even worse to Michigan. They also kept the Illinois game in doubt until the very end (something that Wisconsin and Minnesota weren't able to do).

I just don't see any point in cheerleading and minimizing the potential of our opponents just to make people feel more optimistic.
 

cjbfbp said:
They also have outstanding special teams. They're 1-3 in the conference by virtue of losing to three opponents with an 11-1 conference record. Their offense is not at all good but it can be good enough for them to win games if they get short fields (which they are very good at getting) against lower level opponents (a classification that includes us right now). We may not have lost as badly as they did to OSU (Iowa had a rare 6 turnovers in that game) but, based on how we've played the last three games, I think we might have lost even worse to Michigan. They also kept the Illinois game in doubt until the very end (something that Wisconsin and Minnesota weren't able to do).

I just don't see any point in cheerleading and minimizing the potential of our opponents just to make people feel more optimistic.
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Saying the game against Iowa is winnable isn't minimizing them. The game IS winnable. We will have to play well and take care of the football but Iowa is a mediocre team this year with a really strong defense/special teams and a horrible offense.
 

Gophers_4life said:
The problem with your logic here is that it doesn't work both ways.

The fact that the best teams just also happen to have the best talent, doesn't prove that non-traditional power teams surging in the rankings for a year or two will guarantee they win a division.
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What? If the goal is not for the Gophers to win a weak division then what is the point? Not a fan of mediocrity.

But I also don't think that's what you were saying, your sentence was just very confusing.
 

MNVCGUY said:
No clue but I see Northwestern is hanging around 47 and they have done it twice in recent years. Also teams 68, 70, 71, and 74 are all currently ranked in the top 25.
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I would take a division win over a 15-25 ranking at the end of the year 10x out of 10. Of course, if you win a division you'll probably end up ranked there. NW doing it shows the West has been weak and the Gophers have failed to take advantage of that ONCE.
 


USAF said:
The D line needed help from the portal this year. Big fail.
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Well, Fleck tried at least. He recruited a couple of them but the guy from the Ivy League pulled his commitment and Fleck replaced him with someone from a small school late. I think quality OL and DL players might be among the hardest to recruit from the portal.
 

It's the WR's. Derek Burns has a great Twitter thread about it. Purdue, Illinois & Penn St. put an extra guy in the box, played single coverage and dared our WR's to beat them. Until we can make them pay deep for single coverage that's what we're going to get.

He suggests putting BSF in the slot and rolling the QB /outside the pocket and slide protection. Also said max protection to get receivers open late. RB screens, TE delays, slip screens and bubble screens and draws. He said Penn St didn't even try to disguise it.

Also said defense is on the field too long and it's contributing to the poor 2nd half performances.
 
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bonin21 said:
I would take a division win over a 15-25 ranking at the end of the year 10x out of 10.
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Why? History has shown that winning the western division is sort of a pyrrhic victory. All it gets you is another loss and more often than not it's a lopsided one.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
It's the WR's. Derek Burns has a great Twitter thread about it. Purdue, Illinois & Penn St. put an extra guy in the box, played single coverage and dared our WR's to beat them. Until we can make them pay deep for single coverage that's what we're going to get.

He suggests putting BSF in the slot and rolling the QB with max protection, as well as RB screens, TE delays, slip screens and bubble screens and draws. He said Penn St didn't even try to disguise it.

Also said defense is on the field too long and it's contributing to the poor 2nd half performances.
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I agree about the defense being on the field too often against good teams but I have seen a fair amount of throwing into double coverage during the last couple of games.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Saying the game against Iowa is winnable isn't minimizing them. The game IS winnable. We will have to play well and take care of the football but Iowa is a mediocre team this year with a really strong defense/special teams and a horrible offense.
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Saying a game is "winnable" is a pointless. One could say that about almost all the teams except OSU and maybe Michigan. I recall you saying that about our entire Big Ten schedule before it started but here we are with 3 losses in our first 4 conference games. So, what was the value of making that declaration? Are you starting to get that?
 

cjbfbp said:
Why? History has shown that winning the western division is sort of a pyrrhic victory. All it gets you is another loss and more often than not it's a lopsided one.
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It gets you a chance to win the conference... If you'd rather not even be there because the odds are so heavy against you, accept your mediocrity.
 

cjbfbp said:
Why? History has shown that winning the western division is sort of a pyrrhic victory. All it gets you is another loss and more often than not it's a lopsided one.
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Earning the chance to play in a championship game (other than the Rutgers Championship Season) is not a pyrrhic victory. It's one of the main objectives of this whole process.
 

bonin21 said:
It gets you a chance to win the conference... If you'd rather not even be there because the odds are so heavy against you, accept your mediocrity.
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I can guess that sounds "manly" to you but, more often than not, going against heavy odds is just stupidity.

In 2019, we lost the tiebreaker to Wisconsin for the western division title. We were both 10-2. On December 1st (after the last regular season game), we were ranked #15 and Wisconsin was ranked #10. Wisconsin then lost to OSU in the championship game and lost the Rose Bowl to finish 10-4. We beat Auburn in a great bowl performance to finish 11-2. In the last rankings, we were #10 and Wisconsin was #11.

I liked our final outcome better and if finishing 11-2 with a #10 ranking is mediocrity then I'll take it.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Earning the chance to play in a championship game (other than the Rutgers Championship Season) is not a pyrrhic victory. It's one of the main objectives of this whole process.
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The prestige of the game means nothing if you get your assed kicked (I guess I might exclude a national championship from that statement). I don't know why more of you can't understand that.
 

cjbfbp said:
I can guess that sounds "manly" to you but, more often than not, going against heavy odds is just stupidity.

In 2019, we lost the tiebreaker to Wisconsin for the western division title. We were both 10-2. On December 1st (after the last regular season game), we were ranked #15 and Wisconsin was ranked #10. Wisconsin then lost to OSU in the championship game and lost the Rose Bowl to finish 10-4. We beat Auburn in a great bowl performance to finish 11-2. In the last rankings, we were #10 and Wisconsin was #11.

I liked our final outcome better and if finishing 11-2 with a #10 ranking is mediocrity then I'll take it.
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Yup, loser's way out. I sincerely hope very few other Gopher fans have that attitude.
 


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