Some perspective with the 2013 recruiting class

[Bob_Loblaw]

I'm bored and antsy while I wait for NSD so I decided to look at the class that it looks like we've put together. I think sometimes the casual fan looks at the overall recruiting ranking and they misjudge this class a bit. So, I wanted to compare this class (a class that a lot of people are "meh" about) with last years class (a class people seemed to like).

Of the 16 commits:
11 of them are holding another BCS offer. (69%)
8 of them have multiple BCS offers. (50%)

AVG Rating: 5.53 per rivals


Of the BCS schools that we outrecruited for this crop of athletes:
Miami, Nebraska, Penn St., Kansas St., West Virginia, Cal, Missouri, Mississippi St., etc.
My point.....we didn't just outrecruit other bottom dwellers for these guys.

The guys without BCS offers are Santoso, Salzwedal, Myrick, Wipson and Streveler.
-Santoso is a kicker and the recruiting of a kicker is always weird. You seem to be in a camp of a good kicker deserves an offer or the camp of not sending offers to kickers. However, if you are in favor of giving an offer to a kicker, he seems like a good one. It's hard to complain about his offer.
-The other four:
They were all summer commits. They barely took part in the craziness of recruiting of season because they have all been solid commits since this summer. Outside of Alex Mayes, they were our 4 earliest recruits. To think that their lack of offers didn't have something to do with how early they committed would be paranoid. It's common, Tommy Olson did not have another BCS offer, Phil Nelson didn't either.

Brief comparison to the 2012 class:
26 total commits:
10 had BCS offers (38%)
4 had multiple offers (15%)

AVG Rating: 5.49 (per Rivals)

 

[Nate]

I'm bored and antsy while I wait for NSD so I decided to look at the class that it looks like we've put together. I think sometimes the casual fan looks at the overall recruiting ranking and they misjudge this class a bit. So, I wanted to compare this class (a class that a lot of people are "meh" about) with last years class (a class people seemed to like).

Of the 16 commits:
11 of them are holding another BCS offer. (69%)
8 of them have multiple BCS offers. (50%)

AVG Rating: 5.53 per rivals


Of the BCS schools that we outrecruited for this crop of athletes:
Miami, Nebraska, Penn St., Kansas St., West Virginia, Cal, Missouri, Mississippi St., etc.
My point.....we didn't just outrecruit other bottom dwellers for these guys.

The guys without BCS offers are Santoso, Salzwedal, Myrick, Wipson and Streveler.
-Santoso is a kicker and the recruiting of a kicker is always weird. You seem to be in a camp of a good kicker deserves an offer or the camp of not sending offers to kickers. However, if you are in favor of giving an offer to a kicker, he seems like a good one. It's hard to complain about his offer.
-The other four:
They were all summer commits. They barely took part in the craziness of recruiting of season because they have all been solid commits since this summer. Outside of Alex Mayes, they were our 4 earliest recruits. To think that their lack of offers didn't have something to do with how early they committed would be paranoid. It's common, Tommy Olson did not have another BCS offer, Phil Nelson didn't either.

Brief comparison to the 2012 class:
26 total commits:
10 had BCS offers (38%)
4 had multiple offers (15%)

AVG Rating: 5.49 (per Rivals)

No one will stop us now!

 

[MaxyJR1]

Thanks for doing the work. On rivals the difference between star average #5 and #12 in class ranking for the Big 10 is .3 stars.

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

Good points...

 

[Nate]

My reading comp is in the crapper this weekend. I thought you were talking stars. LOL

it will be interesting to see where we land after these other 5-6 unknowns sign.

 

[Flatfoot]

Thank you for being bored, Bob... and putting this together. I have problems with Legos.

I really hope that of the 5-6 Nate mentioned, one is a LB.

 

[RoyalGopher]

Good stuff, Bob. I was thinking about posting something similar.

 

[GopherGod]

I'm bored and antsy while I wait for NSD so I decided to look at the class that it looks like we've put together. I think sometimes the casual fan looks at the overall recruiting ranking and they misjudge this class a bit. So, I wanted to compare this class (a class that a lot of people are "meh" about) with last years class (a class people seemed to like).

Of the 16 commits:
11 of them are holding another BCS offer. (69%)
8 of them have multiple BCS offers. (50%)

AVG Rating: 5.53 per rivals

Of the BCS schools that we outrecruited for this crop of athletes:
Miami, Nebraska, Penn St., Kansas St., West Virginia, Cal, Missouri, Mississippi St., etc.
My point.....we didn't just outrecruit other bottom dwellers for these guys.

The guys without BCS offers are Santoso, Salzwedal, Myrick, Wipson and Streveler.
-Santoso is a kicker and the recruiting of a kicker is always weird. You seem to be in a camp of a good kicker deserves an offer or the camp of not sending offers to kickers. However, if you are in favor of giving an offer to a kicker, he seems like a good one. It's hard to complain about his offer.
-The other four:
They were all summer commits. They barely took part in the craziness of recruiting of season because they have all been solid commits since this summer. Outside of Alex Mayes, they were our 4 earliest recruits. To think that their lack of offers didn't have something to do with how early they committed would be paranoid. It's common, Tommy Olson did not have another BCS offer, Phil Nelson didn't either.

Brief comparison to the 2012 class:
26 total commits:
10 had BCS offers (38%)
4 had multiple offers (15%)

AVG Rating: 5.49 (per Rivals)

Of the BCS schools the gophers "out recruited", how many actually had committable offers from those schools. Or was it a case where they were offered but their commits would have only been accepted as plan B or C guys after others fell through. It is not unusual for programs to offer but not accept a kid's commitment until they know their plan A or B guys have moved on.

 

[nc2mn]

Whichever it is (Plan B or C or whatever), it is probably the same as the previous year, and as Bob said the numbers are improving. We don't need to look for a way to make good numbers sour.

 

[GopherGod]

Whichever it is (Plan B or C or whatever), it is probably the same as the previous year, and as Bob said the numbers are improving. We don't need to look for a way to make good numbers sour.

Dead last in the BigTen is not good IMO, no matter how you try to spin it. These classes simply aren't classes that can in any way compete for a division championship, much less Big Ten championship.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Dead last in the BigTen is not good IMO, no matter how you try to spin it. These classes simply aren't classes that can in any way compete for a division championship, much less Big Ten championship.

If the Gophers had Illinois' class and were ranked 5th in the BT, you'd be saying it wasn't very good and was only rated that high because of so many commitments. I don't think the current class great by any means, but it is not that much different than most others in the bottom half of the conference.

You try to find something negative about everything Gopher related. You must be a joy to be around.

 

[MaxyJR1]

So we were one in state 4* recruit coming off back to back ACL's fom being top 6-9. Unfortunately Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois benefited from in state 4* recruits.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Of the BCS schools the gophers "out recruited", how many actually had committable offers from those schools. Or was it a case where they were offered but their commits would have only been accepted as plan B or C guys after others fell through. It is not unusual for programs to offer but not accept a kid's commitment until they know their plan A or B guys have moved on.

I don't mean this to be argumentative, but this is exactly what people who don't like this class are going to do.

It's impossible to tell exactly the terms of all of the offers but that's the case with everybody, every single year.

To answer your question to the best of my ability....

Nebraska supposedly wanted Peppers lately. So I guess you could consider that "out recruited".
Miami wanted Wozniak, according to his coach, it was down to us and Miami.
Penn State was looking at Hinojosa this year (that offer wasn't while he was in HS), I'm not sure if they were still interested in Hinojosa.
Eric Carter was a hot commodity when we signed him, so I'd imagine that most of his offers were valid.

But the main point is that you don't seem to be someone that would ever be willing to accept the fact that this class isn't that bad (for a 16 person class). That's fine and you could very well be right.

 

[mggoph]

The problem is that Bob said we outrecruited Nebraska for a recruit.

 

[mkAz]

Time will tell, I'm willing to give Kill the benefit of the doubt though. One of Brewster's main problems when he was coach was that he spent a lot of time chasing stars and not enough time developing a system and recruiting players who fit his system. The results weren't pretty. Kill has a system, it's a system that he knows well and he recruits players who fit his system, they may not all be 4-5 star guys but they fit with what he is trying to accomplish, they also go to class, they stay eligible and they will hopefully stick around for 4-5 years, that has to count for something.

 

[John Galt]

Good post Bob. One observation I've had that your numbers back up is that it's pretty clear that the non-MN high school recruits will be superior for this year. With recruiting, it seems that a lot of perception of how good of a class you have is dictated by your in-state recruiting. Last year, Pirsig, McDonald, and Hayes were all big-time recruits with multiple BCS offers who stayed home. There was also a lot of buzz with Nelson and Williams. By keeping all of these players and also getting several more MN kids last year, I think that's the reason the 2012 class was perceived as being better.

Kill said this morning that there are still 4-5 more recruits expected, so a lot could still change between now and Wednesday.

 

[Killjoy]

If the Gophers had Illinois' class and were ranked 5th in the BT, you'd be saying it wasn't very good and was only rated that high because of so many commitments. I don't think the current class great by any means, but it is not that much different than most others in the bottom half of the conference.

You try to find something negative about everything Gopher related. You must be a joy to be around.

+1 Some people are only happy when they can be negative. Turning a program around requires hard work and patience but there is good news out there but some refuse to see it.

 

[btowngopher]

Illinois' class isn't that great. They have 9 guys rated 5.6 or higher, we have 8. Our average star is higher, they score a lot better on rivals because they only grade the top 20 guys, not to mention they have a bunch of jucos. Everyone sees 2 four stars to our zero four stars and thinks they destroyed us in recruiting. Purdue only has 3 guys rated as 5.6 or better compared to our 8!

 

[btowngopher]

Dead last in the BigTen is not good IMO, no matter how you try to spin it. These classes simply aren't classes that can in any way compete for a division championship, much less Big Ten championship.

I agree to an extent, I'm not going to say Kill can't compete with these classes, because it's happened before. It isn't exactly common though. Hopefully more wins will lead to better classes. Locking down MN will make recruiting a lot easier, it will take wins to convince the kids to stay though. I do think this class can compete with 3/4 of the other big10 classes.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

The problem is that Bob said we outrecruited Nebraska for a recruit.

What's the problem with that?

I used all of Rivals data in this site because it's probably the most popular site. According to Rivals, Nebraska offered Peppers and he is committed to the U.

I don't know if "outrecruit" is the right word (it's not even a word), but I could not think of another way to say that we have a commit from a guy who has/had a Nebraska offer.

So what's the problem?

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Good post Bob. One observation I've had that your numbers back up is that it's pretty clear that the non-MN high school recruits will be superior for this year. With recruiting, it seems that a lot of perception of how good of a class you have is dictated by your in-state recruiting. Last year, Pirsig, McDonald, and Hayes were all big-time recruits with multiple BCS offers who stayed home. There was also a lot of buzz with Nelson and Williams. By keeping all of these players and also getting several more MN kids last year, I think that's the reason the 2012 class was perceived as being better.

Kill said this morning that there are still 4-5 more recruits expected, so a lot could still change between now and Wednesday.

You're 100% right.

Eric Carter and Dixon as recruits should be getting as much love as just about anyone from our class last year (outside of Pirsig).
Alex Mayes had a much better offer sheet than Isaac Hayes. Now, I'm not saying he's better than Isaac Hayes, but the average fan on here was way more pumped about Hayes than just about anyone in this class.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Illinois' class isn't that great. They have 9 guys rated 5.6 or higher, we have 8. Our average star is higher, they score a lot better on rivals because they only grade the top 20 guys, not to mention they have a bunch of jucos. Everyone sees 2 four stars to our zero four stars and thinks they destroyed us in recruiting. Purdue only has 3 guys rated as 5.6 or better compared to our 8!

Yep, the analysis of a recruiting class (even for those people who just look at the rivals recruiting rankings to judge a class) takes more than just looking at the overall team ranking.

 

[Stanger86]

Of the BCS schools that we outrecruited for this crop of athletes:
Miami, Nebraska, Penn St., Kansas St., West Virginia, Cal, Missouri, Mississippi St., etc.
My point.....we didn't just outrecruit other bottom dwellers for these guys.

I get where you're going here, but Miami isn't the Miami of old and Penn State isn't the Penn State of old.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I get where you're going here, but Miami isn't the Miami of old and Penn State isn't the Penn State of old.

Maybe not on the field (although Penn St had a nice season), they still are pretty strong in recruiting.

Penn State has a small (go figure with their situation) but good recruiting class. They've landed one of the top QBs in the country and if their recruiting class was at 22 instead of 17, they'd be either 3rd or 4th in the Big 10.

Miami...they also have a really good class. Again...it's tiny. They have a 3.33 AVG Star ranking, putting them just behind FSU in all of the ACC. A 3.33 avg star ranking is really good.
(Oklahoma has the 13th best class in the nation, their average star ranking this year is 3.18, Nebraska's is 14th, theirs is 3.17).

Miami's class is borderline elite, it's just tiny. So it's going to drop in the standings. But they had room for Wozniak and we got him.

 

[mggoph]

What's the problem with that?

I used all of Rivals data in this site because it's probably the most popular site. According to Rivals, Nebraska offered Peppers and he is committed to the U.

I don't know if "outrecruit" is the right word (it's not even a word), but I could not think of another way to say that we have a commit from a guy who has/had a Nebraska offer.

So what's the problem?

No problem in my eyes, only Gopher Gods. You slighted his team by saying we outrecruited Nebraska.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Time will tell, I'm willing to give Kill the benefit of the doubt though. One of Brewster's main problems when he was coach was that he spent a lot of time chasing stars and not enough time developing a system and recruiting players who fit his system. The results weren't pretty. Kill has a system, it's a system that he knows well and he recruits players who fit his system, they may not all be 4-5 star guys but they fit with what he is trying to accomplish, they also go to class, they stay eligible and they will hopefully stick around for 4-5 years, that has to count for something.

Yep, the big thing we still don't know about Kill is if his system can work in the Big Ten. He certainly is recruiting to the system and that may not always translate into the highest ranking but hopefully results in fewer misses on recruits as well. The question remains can his systems work in the Big Ten and can he get enough impact players in recruiting to take the team to the next level.

Time will tell, 2013 is big, 2014 is make or break on the field. If Kill and his staff can recruit guys that can win Big Ten games it doesn't matter what they are rated, the concern for those that follow recruiting closely is that while stars and rankings are not the end all be all they do tend to fall somewhat in line with where the team finishes on the field. Teams that have consistently low ranked recruiting classes are rarely in the mix for the conference title. Based of his first couple classes and where they have ranked we are banking on Kill being the exception to that trend. The next couple seasons on the field will show us if he is.

 

[corcoran1]

+1 Some people are only happy when they can be negative. Turning a program around requires hard work and patience but there is good news out there but some refuse to see it.

Exactly right, the fact is we are not going from the bottom to ther top of the BigTen in one straight shot. After we have proven we have a competitive program, we will have a much better shot of keeping the Nate Andrews of the world committed and actually keeping higher rated local kids. Mason could have recruited a lot better after his first five years if he had upgraded his staff, especialy his defensive staff, and not gotten complacent. He actually had built credibility, at least on offense. Additionally, if he had had the facilities we have today, he would also have been able to recruit much better his last five seasons.

 

[corcoran1]

What's the problem with that?

I used all of Rivals data in this site because it's probably the most popular site. According to Rivals, Nebraska offered Peppers and he is committed to the U.

I don't know if "outrecruit" is the right word (it's not even a word), but I could not think of another way to say that we have a commit from a guy who has/had a Nebraska offer.

So what's the problem?

There is no problem unless one is determined to refuse to look at data. None of the total class rankings is all that useful, they obviously do a good job of indicating our class and Michigan's are not close in rankings, but anyone who thinks they are capable of making real distinctions between OSU and Mich, or our class and anyone in the bottom half of the BigTen is buying the Rivals/ESPN/Scout Kool Aid. They aren't that good and their class summary rankings are really useless except for very large differences.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Perspective:

For most of the class being brought in this year, the recruitment for these players either began in the midst of an entire coaching staff overhaul, or on the heels of a season, Kill's first, in which the Gophers won just 3 games, and lost games against New Mexico State and NDSU. You're going to go into a young recruit's living room with THAT??

I'll begin to worry about Kill's recruiting when they are back to winning 7-8+ games a year (2013 or 2014) and they STILL aren't bringing in a higher caliber recruit. They went to a bowl game this last season while starting THREE different starting QB's, a true FR starting 7 of those games, and an offensive line of essentially FR and SOPH. Unbelievable.

Count me as one that's not worried moving forward.

 

[nc2mn]

+1 You nailed it, Ogee.