Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
Outperforming the model in the early season has some big effects in our predictions. The Gophers outperformed the predicted outcome by quite a bit, and it raised their prospects almost across the board.
The only issue is that our next opponent did the same against Idaho, and moved that game into a toss-up in the opponents' favor, so the predicted outcome of the season remains 5-7. But, we now have two conference games in the "should win" space (Indiana and Illinois) while more than half of our other conference games are looking tight (including Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland).
If things come together there's a chance to raise a lot of eyebrows - but it starts Saturday in, dare I say, a monumental game for momentum and expectations. It shapes up to be our closest game per the model, and with a poor Miami team on the schedule after, would give us a chance to roll into College Park as slight favorites before the rubber hits the road with the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes.
Still a lot of movement to come in the next few weeks as things settle in. SO glad college football is back!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State +0.5
vs Miami (Ohio) -18.5
at Maryland +3
vs Iowa +10
at Ohio State +27.5
at Nebraska +3.5
vs Indiana -7.5
at Illinois -12
vs Purdue -6
vs Northwestern +2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 5-7 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Miami (Ohio), vs Indiana, @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
The only issue is that our next opponent did the same against Idaho, and moved that game into a toss-up in the opponents' favor, so the predicted outcome of the season remains 5-7. But, we now have two conference games in the "should win" space (Indiana and Illinois) while more than half of our other conference games are looking tight (including Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland).
If things come together there's a chance to raise a lot of eyebrows - but it starts Saturday in, dare I say, a monumental game for momentum and expectations. It shapes up to be our closest game per the model, and with a poor Miami team on the schedule after, would give us a chance to roll into College Park as slight favorites before the rubber hits the road with the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes.
Still a lot of movement to come in the next few weeks as things settle in. SO glad college football is back!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.
vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State +0.5
vs Miami (Ohio) -18.5
at Maryland +3
vs Iowa +10
at Ohio State +27.5
at Nebraska +3.5
vs Indiana -7.5
at Illinois -12
vs Purdue -6
vs Northwestern +2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 5-7 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Miami (Ohio), vs Indiana, @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, @ Nebraska, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason