2018 Sagarin Preseason Predictions

Gopher07

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Back for another year, it's this thing! And the preseason predictions are riding a bit of a hot streak. In 2017, the initial predictions had the Gophers going 5-7 (of course, the Gophers ended up going 5-7). In 2016, the initial predictions had them going 7-5 or 8-4 (Minnesota went 8-4).

My usual disclaimer about these remains in place this year - that is, they're simply for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean a lick when it comes to actual results.

On to the predictions - and they're not super great for our Gophers. The math gives us a big advantage in just two games this year - NMSU and Miami - while the rest are toss-ups or pretty big margins in favor of opponents. Two years ago we had five "should win" games and last year we had four.

In conference, we're expected to be competitive with Maryland, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, while the non-conference tilt with Fresno is shaping up to be an early-season inflection point for the team. Win the games we're favored in and bowl eligibility may come down to the home game against the Boilermakers - right now it's a PICK between Minnesota and Brohm's squad and it could be the difference between 12 and 13 games.

As for trophy games? The math isn't kind here. Even with home field advantage, we're pegged as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against Iowa (ranked 16th overall in the ratings), while the trip to Wisconsin (ranked 6th overall) is also not looking kind for the 14th year in a row.

But - that's why we play the games. Here's hoping we can perform above and beyond these numbers and really surprise some people in 2018.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs New Mexico State -12.5
vs Fresno State -2
vs Miami (Ohio) -13.5
at Maryland +5.5
vs Iowa + 12.5
at Ohio State +32.5
at Nebraska +8.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -5.5
vs Purdue PICK
vs Northwestern +8
at Wisconsin +24

Final record: 5-7 (2-7)/6-6 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs New Mexico State, vs Miami (Ohio)
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Fresno State, @ Maryland, vs Indiana, @ Illinois, vs Purdue
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Nebraska, vs Northwestern, @ Wisconsin
 

Thanks for posting this.
A few of the games Iowa, NW, and Neb I thought were closer to toss up.
At this point, it appears not.
 


Always enjoy this.

Obviously this is something fluid & changing throughout the season. I agree with the 2 likely W's & all the ones in the toss ups; I would put Iowa, Nebraska & Northwestern in the toss up group. Two of those are at home, and the 3rd was a team we put up 50 on last year, despite the struggles throughout the season. Nebraska & Northwestern fall just beyond this scope, so is what it is. I've said it before, I just don't see all the love for Iowa this year. I see a huge gap between them & Wisconsin. Almost as if their OSU win is still fresh.

Will be good to look back on at end of season & how it all plays out.
 
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With Annexstad starting these predictions should be adjusted upward.
 



Always enjoy this.

Obviously this is something fluid & changing throughout the season. I agree with the 2 likely W's & all the ones in the toss ups; I would put Iowa, Nebraska & Northwestern in the toss up group. Two of those are at home, and the 3rd was a team we put up 50 on last year, despite the struggles throughout the season.

Will be good to look back on at end of season & how it all plays out.

Northwestern and Nebraska are pretty close to toss-up territory. If the Gophers come out of non-conference 3-0 and looking better-than-expected, I imagine those lines will creep down to the magical seven-point barrier. Iowa, I don't know. Sagarin really likes the Hawkeyes, more than S&P+ (has them at 36th overall), but about the same as Massey (15th overall). It's a rivalry game at home so I like our chances more than the numbers might suggest, but I do think it's going to be a tough one for us.
 

I'm a bit surprised by the Nebraska line being +8 at this point considering we played them late in the season, but Scott Frost...
 




Northwestern and Nebraska are pretty close to toss-up territory. If the Gophers come out of non-conference 3-0 and looking better-than-expected, I imagine those lines will creep down to the magical seven-point barrier. Iowa, I don't know. Sagarin really likes the Hawkeyes, more than S&P+ (has them at 36th overall), but about the same as Massey (15th overall). It's a rivalry game at home so I like our chances more than the numbers might suggest, but I do think it's going to be a tough one for us.

I had edited my post before I read yours & see the Nebraska & Northwestern right there on the cutoff, so it makes sense. Seems like we kind of see things the same.
 

Looking at the schedule today, if a few things fell just the right way, you could make an argument that it's a pretty favorable schedule. I'll wait to see how they look the first couple games but it could be a better than expected season.
 

Northwestern and Nebraska are pretty close to toss-up territory. If the Gophers come out of non-conference 3-0 and looking better-than-expected, I imagine those lines will creep down to the magical seven-point barrier. Iowa, I don't know. Sagarin really likes the Hawkeyes, more than S&P+ (has them at 36th overall), but about the same as Massey (15th overall). It's a rivalry game at home so I like our chances more than the numbers might suggest, but I do think it's going to be a tough one for us.

It's Homecoming as well. I have a good feeling about Gophs chances, could very well be 4-0 going into that game.
 

Thanks Gopher07, really appreciate you doing this!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 



Gophers +12.5 at home vs Iowa = me and everyone else running to the betting window!!
 
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