Odds that Oturu will be a Junior next year

[die hard gopher]

I'm at 50-50, wouldn't be surprised either way.

 

[stocker08]

I'm surprised people are insisting he needs to improve his outside shooting. Have people been watching? He IS already consistently knocking down the 15-foot jumper than the NBA loves its big men to hit. Like real consistently. That is why his stock is jumping now. He will never be much of a three-point threat, just enough that you have to keep the defender honest. His major point of development is footwork as he gets caught between steps and he travels a lot (more often than its called). The good news is that traveling is not a violation in the NBA.

+08

Oturu is already a pretty solid shot.

 

[Jeshurun]

If he’s a solid lottery pick he will (and should) go.

 

[builtbadgers]

80 %. total guess on my part. No information.

 

[Otis]

If anyone forecasts him as a lottery pick with any credibility at all, he should definitely go.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Just a hunch, nothing to base it on.

If Gophers make NCAA and then make a run to the second weekend, I think he's gone for sure. Oturu seems very loyal and proud of the Minnesota thing, so I think in his mind (and rightly so) he'll feel his work is done. Sweet 16s are rare around these parts, and he could feel dang proud of the legacy he left behind at the U of M.

But short of that (Sweet 16), especially if Gophers don't even make the tournament, just a gut feeling that he'll want to play this thing out and stick around for a third (and final) season. He'd have it in his mind that the 2020-21 season would have a chance to be really special with all the talent they'd have returning, and presumably some help on the way (Mashburn at least). My vibe is team/program success & legacy matter to him. Not to mention he most definitely could improve his draft stock.

Synopsis? He's gone if Gophers go to Sweet 16 this season, he's back anything short of that unless he's completely convinced he's a top 10 or so pick.

 

[cjbfbp]

This. He gone folks. He'll have a better draft this year than next year. Plus, he's ready. Sure everyone could use more development, but he can get that development while drawing a paycheck too.

Well said. The NBA doesn't value the college game development very highly. If you are good enough to get drafted in the first round, they would rather you continue that development in the NBA.

 

[cjbfbp]

I'm surprised people are insisting he needs to improve his outside shooting. Have people been watching? He IS already consistently knocking down the 15-foot jumper than the NBA loves its big men to hit. Like real consistently. That is why his stock is jumping now. He will never be much of a three-point threat, just enough that you have to keep the defender honest. His major point of development is footwork as he gets caught between steps and he travels a lot (more often than its called). The good news is that traveling is not a violation in the NBA.

Agreed, although his 3 point shooting this season isn't bad for a big man (.318) and certainly could improve with time.

 

[jovs]

Well said. The NBA doesn't value the college game development very highly. If you are good enough to get drafted in the first round, they would rather you continue that development in the NBA.

I think this is a key point, it can end up being a detriment to stick around

 

[cjbfbp]

But short of that (Sweet 16), especially if Gophers don't even make the tournament, just a gut feeling that he'll want to play this thing out and stick around for a third (and final) season. He'd have it in his mind that the 2020-21 season would have a chance to be really special with all the talent they'd have returning, and presumably some help on the way (Mashburn at least). My vibe is team/program success & legacy matter to him. Not to mention he most definitely could improve his draft stock.

I disagree with the premise that "he most definitely could improve his draft stock" by staying if he is a mid-to-lower first rounder now. I think the opposite movement is more likely.

I do think tournament exposure matters but I'm far from confident that next year's team, especially if led by Pitino, will go on an extended post-season run.

 

[golden_boi]

Being projected at #10 on nbadraft.net

NBA Mock Draft - NBADraft.net

Specializing in drafts with top players on the NBA horizon, player profiles, scouting reports, rankings and prospective international recruits.

www.nbadraft.net

 

[BleedGopher]

Jim Dutcher chimes in, per Shama:

An authoritative NBA draft website has moved Daniel Oturu, Minnesota’s sophomore center, up to No. 10 in its first round 2020 mock draft. That leads to speculation this will be his last season playing for the Gophers.

Nbadraft.net listed Oturu in the 20s awhile ago but the play of the former Cretin-Derham Hall star continues to raise his draft stock. Much improved over this freshman season, Oturu seems to even be trending upward in recent games (in the last three he is averaging 23 points and 18 rebounds).

Former Gophers coach Jim Dutcher sent great centers into the NBA while at Minnesota and he was asked Monday about Oturu’s No. 10 ranking. “I am not surprised,” Dutcher told Sports Headliners. “They (NBA scouts) look for guys like him because they want their big guys not only to be able to board and block shots, but to step out to the three-point line, and he can do that.”

David Shama's Minnesota Sports Headliners

Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

It hurts right now, but long term it helps. I hope Oturu keeps tearing it up and then gets drafted in the Top 10.

That would be higher than Tyus Jones, Rashad Vaughn, and Gary Trent Jr. It would also likely be higher than Michael Hurt and Tre Jones.

It allows Pitino (or whoever the next coach is) to sit in a recruit's living room and have verifiable proof that going to the U does not hurt their chances of playing in the NBA. Daniel is the only local kid who was ranked near those guys who ended up at the U, and he will likely be drafted the highest.

 

[Block M]

Boohoo. If this team has so much potential, how about winning at a high level THIS YEAR.

 

[SuperSenior13]

I'm surprised people are insisting he needs to improve his outside shooting. Have people been watching? He IS already consistently knocking down the 15-foot jumper than the NBA loves its big men to hit. Like real consistently. That is why his stock is jumping now. He will never be much of a three-point threat, just enough that you have to keep the defender honest. His major point of development is footwork as he gets caught between steps and he travels a lot (more often than its called). The good news is that traveling is not a violation in the NBA.

DeAndre Ayton was a #1 pick with no defense and no outside shot...

 

[Parcival]

Boohoo. If this team has so much potential, how about winning at a high level THIS YEAR.

It has so much potential because we're starting 3 Sophomores and a Freshman. I know this a strange concept but players do DEVELOP and get better over time.

 

[jamiche]

If he's rated anywhere in the first round, he has to go.

 

[cjbfbp]

I think this is a key point, it can end up being a detriment to stick around

Yes it can. Just ask Jared Sullinger, Chase Budinger, and Perry Jones.

 

[fair]

The #10 projection is awesome, but I haven't been able to find a single other mock draft with him even in the first round. Weird to see such a large disparity.

 

[SelectionSunday]

The #10 projection is awesome, but I haven't been able to find a single other mock draft with him even in the first round. Weird to see such a large disparity.

Agree.

I don't trust any mock draft projections in any sport since Todd McShay mentioned Mitch Leidner as a potential 1st round draft pick. My automatic inclination when hearing a NBA draft projection is to immediately add about 10 spots to almost any American college player. There's always the international players nobody's heard of that clog up the first round and, hence, move guys down that we've watched play college basketball. So if the best projection of Oturu out there is #10, in my head he's probably at best about #20.

 

[Rouser]

SS summed it up well. I think if he is projected as a late first rounder, then he may return as if he slips to Rd2 that is a HUGE difference in terms of contract. If he is either 1) guaranteed by a team they will take him in Round 1 or 2) Projected as a consensus lottery pick he is gone for sure.

As far as developing his game, as others have said, the NBA doesn't look as college as the place to do that, so if he has potential, some NBA team will take him. Heck, Amir got a 2 way contract and has already played in a game. Oturu has more potential.

If he does leave this year, Pitino can then cite in back to back years he has sent a player to the NBA, both LOCAL!!

 

[gopherbadgerman]

If he projects as a first round pick I think he is gone. Im not saying he is, guys like him are more or less a dime a dozen in the NBA, but it would be hard to fault him if he gets the for sure money.

 

[howeda7]

I'm puzzled why NBA teams still "punish" older players in the draft. They're not running backs who are using up their limited mileage. I'd rather have a under his rookie contract from age 22-27 than 20-25 all other things equal.

 

[SKOOKM]

I'm puzzled why NBA teams still "punish" older players in the draft. They're not running backs who are using up their limited mileage. I'd rather have a under his rookie contract from age 22-27 than 20-25 all other things equal.

I think that the reason it that they draft players based upon their perceived potential. They can watch a younger player play and convince themselves that they have all kinds of upside. If that player hangs around in college for another year or two and doesn't improve enough then they start to wonder if they are near their ceiling.

 

[LongLiveMilesTarver]

The #10 projection is awesome, but I haven't been able to find a single other mock draft with him even in the first round. Weird to see such a large disparity.

It is the same website that had Rodney Williams as the #3 pick after just a couple games his FR year.

 

[cjbfbp]

I'm puzzled why NBA teams still "punish" older players in the draft. They're not running backs who are using up their limited mileage. I'd rather have a under his rookie contract from age 22-27 than 20-25 all other things equal.

I think SKOOKM gave a pretty good explanation but I'll add the following:

I think their attitude often is "If you really are that good, you'd be in the NBA already" AND "the best players are freshmen and sophs so, if you're a senior, you have a two or three year age advantage on the better players so if you playing well against them, that doesn't mean as much." Sort of a Catch 22.

They do draft seniors - some of them in the first round - but mostly they tend to be 2nd rounders and undrafted free agents.

 

[cjbfbp]

It is the same website that had Rodney Williams as the #3 pick after just a couple games his FR year.

They did rate Rodney Williams highly in his first couple of years. I didn't see him listed that high though (more like in the twenties). Rodney probably should have tested the waters after his freshman or sophomore year. He stayed in school and his weaknesses were exposed.

 

[howeda7]

I think that the reason it that they draft players based upon their perceived potential. They can watch a younger player play and convince themselves that they have all kinds of upside. If that player hangs around in college for another year or two and doesn't improve enough then they start to wonder if they are near their ceiling.

I don't disagree, but it's foolishness. I'd rather have more information, not less. I'd rather have a guy who's a year stronger and more experienced. Unless he actually plays worse or is injured, he shouldn't decline in your assessment.

 

[howeda7]

I think SKOOKM gave a pretty good explanation but I'll add the following:

I think their attitude often is "If you really are that good, you'd be in the NBA already" AND "the best players are freshmen and sophs so, if you're a senior, you have a two or three year age advantage on the better players so if you playing well against them, that doesn't mean as much." Sort of a Catch 22.

They do draft seniors - some of them in the first round - but mostly they tend to be 2nd rounders and undrafted free agents.

I get that logic for the top 5-10 guys. But in the back half of the 1st round, you're just trying to get a solid player.