Minnesota @ Northwestern 2021 - Media Predictions

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The predicted scores don't have a great deal of variation. That makes sense on the Minnesota side because in five of their seven games they've scored 31, 31, 30, 30, and 34. Minnesota has to be one of the more predictable teams this season on the offensive side. On the defensive side, throwing out the highest and lowest, we have 26, 14, 13, 23, and 16, A bit more variation there but still a fairly tight range. One might guess that Northwestern would be a bit more likely to fall lower than the average of those (18) so maybe 14 or 17 is a good guess.
 

cjbfbp said:
The predicted scores don't have a great deal of variation. That makes sense on the Minnesota side because in five of their seven games they've scored 31, 31, 30, 30, and 34. Minnesota has to be one of the more predictable teams this season on the offensive side. On the defensive side, throwing out the highest and lowest, we have 26, 14, 13, 23, and 16, A bit more variation there but still a fairly tight range. One might guess that Northwestern would be a bit more likely to fall lower than the average of those (18) so maybe 14 or 17 is a good guess.
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The Fleck game plan consistently has us on a path to 30-34.

Fleck's goal seems to be to have a 10 minute drive per quarter resulting in a TD, with an extra score mixed in before end of half or before end of game.
 

cjbfbp said:
The predicted scores don't have a great deal of variation. That makes sense on the Minnesota side because in five of their seven games they've scored 31, 31, 30, 30, and 34. Minnesota has to be one of the more predictable teams this season on the offensive side. On the defensive side, throwing out the highest and lowest, we have 26, 14, 13, 23, and 16, A bit more variation there but still a fairly tight range. One might guess that Northwestern would be a bit more likely to fall lower than the average of those (18) so maybe 14 or 17 is a good guess.
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Can never toss out the lowest. Throwing a shutout is always unforgettable.
 



I am hoping we will be making Bowling Green references for another decade (which is better than the ND reference). It will always serve as a reminder of what happens when coaches don't have a game plan to win and players don't bring their "A" game. I am hoping at the end of this year we will be talking about what might have been without that Bowling Green loss.
 

Athlon Sports has a full prediction with the Gophers edging Northwestern 23-20
It's tough to go against Minnesota here given how the Gophers have played defensively for much of the season and the emerging young talents in the Gophers' backfield who have stepped up in place of the injured starters. Northwestern has not been able to fix its leaky rush defense, and the Wildcats' continued struggles to score points have plagued them all year, ranking 124th nationally in red-zone offense.

The Wildcats have performed much better this year in the friendly confines of Evanston (3-1), so expect this to be a close matchup, but Minnesota appears to be hitting its stride on both sides of the football at just the right time in the season.
 

Blake Ruane of the Daily Gopher (SB Nation) has Minnesota winning 30-13
This is a favorable matchup for Minnesota on paper. The defense has been stout against the run and should be able to crank up the heat on Hilinski thanks in large part to a deep defensive line that has gotten better every week. On the other side of the ball, it shouldn’t take much to get the Gophers’ ground game rolling against a woeful Northwestern defensive front. Take care of business and secure bowl eligibility.

Black Shoe Diaries (Penn State SB Nation) preview has Minnesota winning 34-21
For no particular reason, I’m rooting for the Golden Gophers. They went down HARD against Bowling Green, but sitting at 3-1, they also control their own destiny in the West. Give me more chaos at all possible points in time!
  • 18th Bowling Green reference
 



32-8 Gophers

Don't ask me how we get to those numbers.😎
 



IceBoxGopher said:
I was a bit surprised with the score prediction, too. I could see maybe 27-10 or 31-13 being more likely. Maybe Wildcats are expected to do a bit better at home?

I know the series has been really back and forth so maybe that's why some may predict a closer game this week. Results since 2000:
  • 2000 - Northwestern won 41-35
  • 2001 - Northwestern won 23-17
  • 2002 - Minnesota won 45-42
  • 2003 - Minnesota won 42-17
  • 2004 - Minnesota won 43-17
  • 2007 - Northwestern won 49-48
  • 2008 - Northwestern won 24-17
  • 2009 - Minnesota won 35-24
  • 2010 - Northwestern won 29-28
  • 2011 - Northwestern won 28-13
  • 2012 - Northwestern won 21-13
  • 2013 - Minnesota won 20-17
  • 2014 - Minnesota won 24-17
  • 2015 - Northwestern won 27-0
  • 2016 - Minnesota won 29-12
  • 2017 - Northwestern won 39-0
  • 2018 - Northwestern won 24-14
  • 2019 - Minnesota won 38-22
Out of 18 games, 11 have been within 10 points and 8 of them have been within a touchdown.
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Wow, it’s tough to see that record over the last 20 yrs, I remember a couple decades 70-80’s when “we owned NW”….🤨
 



IceBoxGopher said:
Athlon Sports has a full prediction with the Gophers edging Northwestern 23-20
It's tough to go against Minnesota here given how the Gophers have played defensively for much of the season and the emerging young talents in the Gophers' backfield who have stepped up in place of the injured starters. Northwestern has not been able to fix its leaky rush defense, and the Wildcats' continued struggles to score points have plagued them all year, ranking 124th nationally in red-zone offense.

The Wildcats have performed much better this year in the friendly confines of Evanston (3-1), so expect this to be a close matchup, but Minnesota appears to be hitting its stride on both sides of the football at just the right time in the season.
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I'm going with dinks on this one! Only half based on the outcome and the other half based on the source (Athlon)!
 


IceBoxGopher said:
Athlon Sports has a full prediction with the Gophers edging Northwestern 23-20
It's tough to go against Minnesota here given how the Gophers have played defensively for much of the season and the emerging young talents in the Gophers' backfield who have stepped up in place of the injured starters. Northwestern has not been able to fix its leaky rush defense, and the Wildcats' continued struggles to score points have plagued them all year, ranking 124th nationally in red-zone offense.

The Wildcats have performed much better this year in the friendly confines of Evanston (3-1), so expect this to be a close matchup, but Minnesota appears to be hitting its stride on both sides of the football at just the right time in the season.
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"...and the emerging young talents in the Gophers' backfield who have stepped up in place of the injured starters..."

Another way to interpret Gopher success in rushing is to credit the offensive linemen who have provided lanes for whichever RB has the ball.
 




Dakota2 said:
Can never toss out the lowest. Throwing a shutout is always unforgettable.
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No one said that anyone has to forget the shutout. I'm just removing it and the OSU game from the defensive average because both of them appear to be extremes.

If we leave both of them in, Minnesota has given up an average of 20.2 points per game. If we take both of them out, Minnesota has given up an average 19 points per game. While the choice doesn't make a big difference, you have a reasonably narrow range of values for points allowed per game if you do.

Taking medians instead of the average would produce a fair result. Doing that we would get offensive and defensive medians of 30 and 16 which was pretty close to the result of the Maryland game.
 

This is another glorious Big Ten game. I agree that the Gophers are the ones who will beat themselves if they are sloppy.

Northwestern almost always play the Gophers hard regardless of the score.

This is a test for the Gophers to see if they are championship material.
 

hungan1 said:
This is another glorious Big Ten game. I agree that the Gophers are the ones who will beat themselves if they are sloppy.

Northwestern almost always play the Gophers hard regardless of the score.

This is a test for the Gophers to see if they are championship material.
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With NU at 3-4 (1-3), I feel like this is the kind of game where we can't prove we are championship material, but we can prove we aren't.

I predict the kind of low-scoring game where we are actually in control start to finish, but has the kind of final score that leaves some pundits saying that it wasn't that big of a win against a poor opponent. Either way, as long as we get the win, don't really care how it looks.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
With NU at 3-4 (1-3), I feel like this is the kind of game where we can't prove we are championship material, but we can prove we aren't.

I predict the kind of low-scoring game where we are actually in control start to finish, but has the kind of final score that leaves some pundits saying that it wasn't that big of a win against a poor opponent. Either way, as long as we get the win, don't really care how it looks.
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I would agree with this assessment. Nobody will be overly impressed with a win over Northwestern but a loss would make it a lot tougher to view us as legit contenders for the West.

As for the last part, we are pretty rarely going to have the impressive wins that so many of the National people look for. Fleck is very comfortable playing the grind it out, low scoring game, that can be a dominant win even if the final score doesn't reflect it.
 

Gophers need to break the streak of NW winning every other game this year.
 

Northwestern is quite dismal against the run, a full 1.30 YPC worse than any other Big Ten team.

We may see a lot of the 6 OL formation on Saturday
 

Face The Facts said:
The Fleck game plan consistently has us on a path to 30-34.

Fleck's goal seems to be to have a 10 minute drive per quarter resulting in a TD, with an extra score mixed in before end of half or before end of game.
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Indeed. One might wonder how much that 30-34 range of scoring has to do with our game plan and how much it has to do with our opponents' relative defensive strength or weakness. I'd say a little of both but more due to Fleck's game plan. Below is chart showing our opponents (except for Bowling Green), their average points given up per game, their national defensive ranking on that measure, their points given up to Minnesota, and the amount that the points given to Minnesota differed from their average.

1635530730424.png

First of all, notice that we've played pretty good defensive teams on the whole. All of them except Maryland are comfortably in the top half nationally. In every game we've outscored their averages. However the only times where the opponents' ranking seemed to have a strong relationship with the amount scored was for the best (Purdue) and worst (Maryland) defensive teams we played as those are the lowest and highest scoring games of the group. In those games, the amount we scored was pretty close to their averages on the season (about a 4 point differential for each).

Northwestern is right at the midpoint of FBS teams on this measure (#65) at 25.1 points per game allowed. So, I guess we should score about 34 points! Or, maybe just 30 or 31 again.
 

Staff at the Daily Gopher (SB Nation) have made their picks for the game.
GoAUpher has Minnesota winning 30-10. I’m stealing gg05’s bit. THE POWER OF THIRTY SHALL NOT BE DENIED. Also Northwestern isn’t the best and I think Minnesota is able to grind out the TD’s they need to open a wider lead in the second half.

GopherGuy05 has Minnesota winning 31-17. We score more, they score less.
GopherNation is picking the Gophers to win 31-7. Northwestern will win the Big Ten West...next year. This year the Gophers will have no problem taking care of business and winning this while running all over the Wildcats.

Hipster Gopher has the Gophers winning 16-0. On October 30th, 1893 our Gophers traveled to Evanston and beat the Wildcats 16-0. all these years later (128) and that score feels about right to me. NOTE: Hipster’s bit is that he picks using scores from previous matchups between the teams.

Mowe0018 has Minnesota winning 21-10. I am tenuous about any away game at this point in time regardless of quality of opponent. I think the Gophers will continue to play quality defense. Just avoid turnovers and injuries, and run the danged ball and we should be ok. Then again, Ryan Field is a bit of a House of Horrors and it is Halloween weekend... maybe I should change my pick...

White Speed Receiver is picking the Gophers, 42-9. Northwestern is really bad stopping the run. Minnesota is really good at running. Roll damn Gophs.

WildCatToo has Minnesota winning 35-17. Run, Gophers, run!

ZipsOfAkron is picking Northwestern, 31-28. There is this scene in The Mighty Ducks where Charlie Conway gets on a breakaway and Gordon is all excited because he thinks District 5 will finally score a goal.

Karp chimes in and goes, “it’s Spazway, he’ll screw up.”

Right now we’re all Gordon Bombay. ... I know I need help.

Maize N Brew (Michigan SB Nation) is also taking Minnesota
Credit to P.J. Fleck’s bunch, which has weathered a loss to Bowling Green and season-ending injuries to its top two running backs and is still on a three-game winning streak. The Golden Gophers are playing solid smashmouth football right now and allowing just 312 yards per game. Take Minnesota to make it four straight and reach bowl eligibility.

Ryan Burns of Gopher Illustrated has Minnesota winning 24-13
In the last six Minnesota vs. Northwestern games, they're tied at three games a piece and the Gophers are 1-2 in Evanston in their last three attempts. But objectively, these two teams are on different trajectories. While the Gophers are 3-0 in October, the Wildcats are 1-2 and have been blown out twice.

I could see this being another game that Minnesota scores 30+ if Northwestern struggles to stop the run and to tackle. They have done it five of their seven games this season, but I think too highly of Fitz's defense over the years.

Minnesota finishes off October undefeated.
 


cjbfbp said:
No one said that anyone has to forget the shutout. I'm just removing it and the OSU game from the defensive average because both of them appear to be extremes.

If we leave both of them in, Minnesota has given up an average of 20.2 points per game. If we take both of them out, Minnesota has given up an average 19 points per game. While the choice doesn't make a big difference, you have a reasonably narrow range of values for points allowed per game if you do.

Taking medians instead of the average would produce a fair result. Doing that we would get offensive and defensive medians of 30 and 16 which was pretty close to the result of the Maryland game.
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Wow, are you nervous about something? I'll bet your golf scores are better when you take out your one par and the ten triples.
 

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