Minnesota Golden Gophers Tied for Lowest Win Total in Big Ten With 4.5 Wins Predicted for 2024

Donate To GopherHole

MplsGopher said:
I think you get the $100 back, so $224 total
Click to expand...
Correct. Bet $100 to win $124 (plus your $100 back). Then for -152, bet $152 to win $100 (plus your $152 back). So these odds are screwy, at least FanDuel really expects the Over. They usually get these closer to 50/50 so the lines have action
 

WashedGoph said:
That’s neat.

Plenty of places picked the Gophers to finish near the bottom of the west in 2019. I’ll wait until the games are played to evaluate teams.
Click to expand...

I don't remember the external feeling about the Gophers that way before the season. Certainly very few, if any, predicted them to do as well as they did but they were expected to at least be bowl bound. In fact, I do recall reading one Nebraska fan site where there was a consensus that the Gophers were the most likely dark horse in the division.

There were multiple reasons for optimism about the team that year:

1) although they were erratic in the prior season, they finished the season pretty strong and won their bowl (over a 7-5 P5 team) convincingly;

2) they had the substantial majority of their most important players returning; and

3) they had an easy schedule.
 


gopher56 said:
Correct. Bet $100 to win $124 (plus your $100 back). Then for -152, bet $152 to win $100 (plus your $152 back). So these odds are screwy, at least FanDuel really expects the Over. They usually get these closer to 50/50 so the lines have action
Click to expand...
i don't think they super love whole numbers as it drives down betting when there's a chance for a push, but yeah the line makes it think about like it's 3/5 likely they have over 4 wins
 


DelawareGopher said:
Let’s see…

Expected win: Rhode Island, Nevada

Toss ups, more or less: Maryland, UNC, UCLA, Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Expected loss: USC, Michigan, Penn State

So they need to go 2-0 in the “easy” games and only 3-4 in the toss up games to hit the over. I’d take that.
Click to expand...

with this proviso:
Expected win: Rhode Island (Home), Nevada (Home) -- both at home

Toss-ups: UNC (Home), Iowa (Home), UCLA (Away), Maryland (Home), Illinois (Away), Rutgers (Away), Wisconsin (Away) -- 3 at home, 4 away

Expected loss: USC (Home), Michigan (Away), PSU (Home) -- 2 at home, 1 away

If we accept the notion that the Gophers lose to USC and Penn State at home, and Michigan away, then in order to hit 5 wins, the Gophers must win all their toss-up games at home. for 6 wins, they need to win at least one toss-up game on the road.

so - can't f*** up any home games. If they could somehow beat USC or PSU at home, that changes the equation.
 


That 1/2 win is going to feel pretty unsatisfying...
 

Panthadad2 said:
Here's each team. I think the over on Minnesota's 4.5 is a strong bet even if the payout is low (meaning the oddsmakers believe there's a high probability that Minnesota gets more wins). I was at first surprised by the low USC number, but they have a brutal schedule next year.

5.5 Illinois
5.5 Indiana
7.5 Iowa
7.5 Maryland
9.5 Michigan
5.5 Michigan State
4.5 Minnesota
7.5 Nebraska
5.5 Northwestern
10.5 Ohio State
10.5 Oregon
9.5 Penn State
4.5 Purdue
5.5 UCLA
7.5 USC
7.5 Washington
6.5 Wisconsin
Click to expand...
Without looking at any schedules, I’m feeling the UNDER on Indiana, Maryland, and MSU. OVER on Iowa, Minnesota, and OSU. I’d hold off on the others.
gopher56 said:
Correct. Bet $100 to win $124 (plus your $100 back). Then for -152, bet $152 to win $100 (plus your $152 back). So these odds are screwy, at least FanDuel really expects the Over. They usually get these closer to 50/50 so the lines have action
Click to expand...
Yeah the “vig”, or cut the house takes, is way too big on these. Makes sense because it’s VERY early and hard to predict these things, so the way they’ll make money is by offering low payouts than are statistically warranted. So even if they lose more of these bets than expected, they should still make money because they’re not paying out as much as they should to winners.
 



MplsGopher said:
Well, this is kinda important.

He was good ... in FCS. Will that translate to Big Ten? If you can tell that for sure now, then go make some money.
Click to expand...
Lot of North Dakota guys went in the draft including 2 QB. Many of them take awhile to get the man muscles and brains for the game. Brosmer has been there and I don't think he will be rattled
 

I dont think the Gophers are going to have a good record next year, but I would lean to the over here. I think Fleck finds a way to win 5 games.
 

Grandpagopher said:
Lot of North Dakota guys went in the draft including 2 QB. Many of them take awhile to get the man muscles and brains for the game. Brosmer has been there and I don't think he will be rattled
Click to expand...

There are a fair number of FCS quarterbacks who have been successful in the NFL. Here are just a few of them (in addition to NDSU's Carson Wentz):

Joe Flacco and Rich Gannon - Delaware
Steve McNair - Alcorn State
Jimmy Garappolo and Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Harvard
Kurt Warner - Northern Iowa
 

How are media so stupid? Saw the STrib got in on this and yesterday heard Dan B and JG talking about it in the afternoon.

All completely, obliviously focused on the O/U number itself, without a single shred of recognition about the actual odds and that the odds favored us being higher than 4.5 wins.


If I offer a bet of O/U Ohio State at 3 wins for the regular season, and then put betting odds that you have to put in $1B to make $100 on the over side, and you can bet $100 to win $1B on the under side .......... does that mean that Ohio State is only going to win about 3 games this year??

Anybody home McFly??? THINK McFly, THINK
 



BleedGopher said:
Over the weekend FanDuel released their preseason win totals for the Big Ten and the popular sports book is not very high on the Gophers' entering the spring. FanDuel currently has the Golden Gophers' over/under win total at 4.5 wins, tied for the lowest in the Big Ten with the Purdue Boilermakers. The Golden Gophers in 2023 finished the season 6-7 thanks to a Quick Lane Bowl victory over Bowling Green on December 26.

bvmsports.com

Minnesota Golden Gophers Tied for Lowest Win Total in Big Ten With 4.5 Wins Predicted for 2024

Over the weekend FanDuel released their preseason win totals for the Big Ten and the popular sports book is not very high on the Gophers' entering the spring. FanDuel currently…
bvmsports.com bvmsports.com

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...
The question I have is how many loses puts PJ in the hot seat?
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I just think the national perspective is that the defense fell apart, the offense struggled, and the Coordinator hires were pedestrian.

I think there is enough talent to win as many as 8 games. All depends on how it all comes together.
Click to expand...
They weren't wrong on the Coordinator hires being pedestrian in my opinion. That aside I can see them winning 7-8 games.
 


MplsGopher said:
How are media so stupid? Saw the STrib got in on this and yesterday heard Dan B and JG talking about it in the afternoon.

All completely, obliviously focused on the O/U number itself, without a single shred of recognition about the actual odds and that the odds favored us being higher than 4.5 wins.


If I offer a bet of O/U Ohio State at 3 wins for the regular season, and then put betting odds that you have to put in $1B to make $100 on the over side, and you can bet $100 to win $1B on the under side .......... does that mean that Ohio State is only going to win about 3 games this year??

Anybody home McFly??? THINK McFly, THINK
Click to expand...
Dan B suffered a stroke in 1999 and no one told him. Just turn away.
 

Bold predictions: (1) the Gophers open up 4-0 and cross the 4.5 win mark no later than game 7; and (2) we end the season holding both the Axe and the Pig, for the first time in the 21st Century.
 

USAF said:
How much did.you wager?
Click to expand...
OK, I’ve been reading your demi-trollish skeptical posts for a few years now.

You want to take the under, hotshot? I’ll give you 2:1. I’ll pay for your ticket to Vegas, we enter into a contract there minimum $1m up to $5m, both our money go into escrow.

2 requirements: (i) you wear Gopher gear your entire stay; (ii) you lose and you stay off Gopherhole for life.

SpauldingNo!, you in too?

Any other trolls, demi-trolls, arm-chair PJ haters or Lake Wobegon negative Nellie’s, want to join in? We know who you are; time to put up or log off.
 

Steady said:
OK, I’ve been reading your demi-trollish skeptical posts for a few years now.

You want to take the under, hotshot? I’ll give you 2:1. I’ll pay for your ticket to Vegas, we enter into a contract there minimum $1m up to $5m, both our money go into escrow.

2 requirements: (i) you wear Gopher gear your entire stay; (ii) you lose and you stay off Gopherhole for life.

SpauldingNo!, you in too?

Any other trolls, demi-trolls, arm-chair PJ haters or Lake Wobegon negative Nellie’s, want to join in? We know who you are; time to put up or log off.
Click to expand...
LOL.
I will need a little time to get my hands on $1m.
Like, maybe....200 years.
 

Unless he was doing that silly accountant thing where one M stands for a thousand, two MM for a million
 

CentralGopher said:
Definitely taking the over on that
Click to expand...
The one thing to be concerned about with taking "overs" is injuries. They benefit you when you take the under, but hurt when you take the over. For example, if Brosmer goes down in week 1 then the "over" bets are likely to lose, whereas the "under" bet now looks great.

So I generally prefer "under" bets only, but I won't do this under. If the line was 7.5, which I think is accurate, then I would do the "under" and just wait for an injury.
 


gopherbadgerman said:
I dont think the Gophers are going to have a good record next year, but I would lean to the over here. I think Fleck finds a way to win 5 games.
Click to expand...
how do you feel about our academics for next fall? thinking bowl game…. 😏
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom