Is Minnesota still alive for CFP?

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MaxyJR1 said:
It's not a playoff, it's an invitational final four. If Gopher win out and win B1G title, they would need quite a few other upsets to be considered. Until expanded to 12 teams, the room for error is thin. Notre Dame and Cincinnati are the two teams that may screw things up this year. P5 conferences are kind of screwed if those two win out.
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They really need to go 12 teams with objective criteria for getting in.

I would argue any conference champ in the top 25 of that objective criteria should auto bid. Remaining bids go to top ranked teams of that objective criteria. Football doesn’t have a large enough sample size or tourney to allow subjectivity into it.

My dream playoff is 12 teams. All 10 conference champs (9 if CUSA folds) and 2 auto bids. That is the way you expand the playoff without diminishing the regular season. It actually makes MORE regular season games important.
 

I stand by what I said at the start of this thread: alive but not in control. Even if we take as given that we win out (which is obviously unlikely in and of itself), I would agree that it is a long shot to make it (Oregon, Georgia, Bama, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Wake Forest all in position to beat out an 11-2 Gopher team). But, there are enough plausible scenarios that don't involve entire teams being abducted by aliens that could result in an 11-2 B1G champ with a victory over a top 5 OSU team and a 9-0 regular season conference record be one of the top 4 teams in the country (even with an ugly Bowling Green loss on the schedule). I think the SEC champ is a lock and Oklahoma is probably going to get there. Could see Georgia running the table and the SEC only getting 1 in, Oregon has looked very mortal, not convinced Cincinnati or Wake Forest are invincible.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I stand by what I said at the start of this thread: alive but not in control. Even if we take as given that we win out (which is obviously unlikely in and of itself), I would agree that it is a long shot to make it (Oregon, Georgia, Bama, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Wake Forest all in position to beat out an 11-2 Gopher team). But, there are enough plausible scenarios that don't involve entire teams being abducted by aliens that could result in an 11-2 B1G champ with a victory over a top 5 OSU team and a 9-0 regular season conference record be one of the top 4 teams in the country (even with an ugly Bowling Green loss on the schedule). I think the SEC champ is a lock and Oklahoma is probably going to get there. Could see Georgia running the table and the SEC only getting 1 in, Oregon has looked very mortal, not convinced Cincinnati or Wake Forest are invincible.
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Yeah. Need wake to lose 2 i think. Need Oregon to lose another.
need Ohio state to be the team we beat in big 10 title game. Need Georgia to be unbeaten SEC champ
need cinci to lose one.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Disagree. In March Madness, any team can earn a spot into the tournament without needing to impress a committee into offering it an invitation.
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I agree that MM is better, in that sense, but that does not prove that MM is a playoff between all 300-whatever DI basketball teams. It is a bracket of a sub-set of those teams.
 

Some guy said:
They really need to go 12 teams with objective criteria for getting in.

I would argue any conference champ in the top 25 of that objective criteria should auto bid. Remaining bids go to top ranked teams of that objective criteria. Football doesn’t have a large enough sample size or tourney to allow subjectivity into it.

My dream playoff is 12 teams. All 10 conference champs (9 if CUSA folds) and 2 auto bids. That is the way you expand the playoff without diminishing the regular season. It actually makes MORE regular season games important.
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Not a huge fan of that many auto bids for G5 programs, but I agree it would be a true playoff for FBS. Add in Notre Dame and now there is one at-large bid.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Not a huge fan of that many auto bids for G5 programs, but I agree it would be a true playoff for FBS. Add in Notre Dame and now there is one at-large bid.
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I agree with Some Guy. I'd auto bid all the conference champions with the remaining bids being at large. I have a huge issue with the fact that the G5 teams are essentially playing for nothing, since they have virtually no chance of making the playoff in the current system. If you're an FBS conference champion, regardless of conference, you should get in. That's how it works at every other level of college football.

And honestly, I'm tired of people bending over backwards for Notre Dame. Join a conference or risk being left out.
 

discochris said:
I have a huge issue with the fact that the G5 teams are essentially playing for nothing, since they have virtually no chance of making the playoff in the current system.
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No one has ever stopped them from moving down to FCS and playing for that national championship.

They prefer and choose not to do that.
 



8 team playoff. All five conference champions from P5. One conference champion from G6. Two at-large (at-large must be from different conferences) Anything else is too large and/or diminishes the regular season IMHO.

Seed teams 1-8. At-large teams cannot be seeded 1-4.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
8 team playoff. All five conference champions from P5. One conference champion from G6. Two at-large (at-large must be from different conferences) Anything else is too large and/or diminishes the regular season IMHO.

Seed teams 1-8. At-large teams cannot be seeded 1-4.
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With an 8 team, they'll make it so that Big XII has to earn its bid.
 

MplsGopher said:
With an 8 team, they'll make it so that Big XII has to earn its bid.
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Perhaps. Then I would go with two G6 (if you can call them G6 anymore) champions. Basic point is to have the major conf champs automatically in and limit the amount of at-large teams.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
Perhaps. Then I would go with two G6 (if you can call them G6 anymore) champions. Basic point is to have the major conf champs automatically in and limit the amount of at-large teams.
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Correct and agree. But it would be P4 auto and one bid for the highest champ of the remaining.

TV still has to agree to pay for the thing. They're going to want the highest ratings, which are going to come from the major programs. Not Western Kentucky vs Colorado State.
 



MaxyJR1 said:
Not a huge fan of that many auto bids for G5 programs, but I agree it would be a true playoff for FBS. Add in Notre Dame and now there is one at-large bid.
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I wouldn’t want it to all be auto bids.

but I’d rather have an 11-1 team from a G5 than a 9-3 team from the big ten or SEC that was 4th in their own division.

objective criteria is the big then for me. So autobids with exit ramps. Like auto bids for teams with conference championships in the objective formula top 20 or top 25 or something.

don’t want 7-6 wisconsin going to the playoff in a year where Ohio state and Penn state are sanctioned.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
8 team playoff. All five conference champions from P5. One conference champion from G6. Two at-large (at-large must be from different conferences) Anything else is too large and/or diminishes the regular season IMHO.

Seed teams 1-8. At-large teams cannot be seeded 1-4.
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I would like that as well. An unbeaten UTSA would get left out in that scenario. And some people like they are left out. I don’t, which is why I favor 12.

what you proposed would be much better than the current system.

What you proposed wouldn’t diminish the regular season at all. A game or two would be diminished. But a lot of games would be enhanced. Wisconsin Rutgers would have playoff implications. As would Minnesota Illinois.
 

I like 16 teams with autobids for all 10 conference champs. If the weakest conference champion is so bad people think they don't belong (right now Kent State and Northern Illinois are leading the two divisions in the MAC), then the number 1 team in the country gets a nice present for being an undefeated P5 team when they play a home game against an inferior opponent (thereby preserving the value of the regular season). And, every team in the country (sorry independents, time to join a conference) can start the season with an objective path to earn a spot into a playoff for a national championship.
 

SEC commish tells "The Alliance" a hard No on their preferred 8-team model:

 

SEC is always going to want more at-large bids, because they usually have a lot of high ranked, non-champs.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I like 16 teams with autobids for all 10 conference champs. If the weakest conference champion is so bad people think they don't belong (right now Kent State and Northern Illinois are leading the two divisions in the MAC), then the number 1 team in the country gets a nice present for being an undefeated P5 team when they play a home game against an inferior opponent (thereby preserving the value of the regular season). And, every team in the country (sorry independents, time to join a conference) can start the season with an objective path to earn a spot into a playoff for a national championship.
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I love this, but I don't see it happening.

Remember people, the FCS playoff (with the exception of the weird spring season this year) has 24 teams. The D2 playoff has 28. D3 has 32, and even a garbage conference like the UMAC sends their champion, who usually gets trounced 98-0 in the first round.

There is NO REASON why FBS can't have at least a 16 team playoff.
 


What I absolutely dislike about 12 teams is that the top 4 ranked teams get a first round by, which gives them a decided advantage with time to heal and create their game plans. my preference is 8, with 16 next.
 

Five Thirty Eight has Minnesota at 56% to make the CFP on the 4% chance they were to win out.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2021 College Football Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 


If Minnesota were to win out (4% chance according to FiveThirtyEight) a few things need to happen to boost the Gophers odds of being selected:

1. Georgia has to win out - high chance Bama gets bumped out, Bama losing to Auburn would also work.

2. Oklahoma has to win out - gets rid of teams like Baylor and Oklahoma St that could steal a spot with only 1 loss.

Using 538's model, these 2 scenarios add another 9% in favor of Minnesota, up to 68% for making the playoffs.

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You would also likely need Wake Forest, Oregon, and Notre Dame to all lose 1 or more games the rest of the way.

If Minnesota wins their games, one championship week at a time, there could still be a slim path to crack the top 4 on selection sunday.
 

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RogueGopher said:
If Minnesota were to win out (4% chance according to FiveThirtyEight) a few things need to happen to boost the Gophers odds of being selected:

1. Georgia has to win out - high chance Bama gets bumped out, Bama losing to Auburn would also work.

2. Oklahoma has to win out - gets rid of teams like Baylor and Oklahoma St that could steal a spot with only 1 loss.

Using 538's model, these 2 scenarios add another 9% in favor of Minnesota, up to 68% for making the playoffs.

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You would also likely need Wake Forest, Oregon, and Notre Dame to all lose 1 or more games the rest of the way.

If Minnesota wins their games, one championship week at a time, there could still be a slim path to crack the top 4 on selection sunday.
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I would like to see Cinci lose to Houston, as well. And MSU needs to pick up losses

If all that happens: Georgia, OU, and Minnesota win out, Wake, Oregon, ND, and Cincy pick up at least one (more) loss, and MSU gets at least two losses (and let's make one of those to Purdue).

Then yeah, we would have a solid case.



MSU could be a real turd in the punch bowl, if they only lose to Ohio St.

The interesting thing would be if they win out, but then we beat them in Indy. They'd only have one loss, we'd have two.
 


Not sure why NC State has that big of an impact, but I’ll take it!
 

MplsGopher said:
I would like to see Cinci lose to Houston, as well. And MSU needs to pick up losses

If all that happens: Georgia, OU, and Minnesota win out, Wake, Oregon, ND, and Cincy pick up at least one (more) loss, and MSU gets at least two losses (and let's make one of those to Purdue).

Then yeah, we would have a solid case.



MSU could be a real turd in the punch bowl, if they only lose to Ohio St.

The interesting thing would be if they win out, but then we beat them in Indy. They'd only have one loss, we'd have two.
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Fun speculation to be sure. But OSU's loss to Oregon limits how high they can be ranked.

If MSU beats OSU and PSU, Ihowever, I think a 12-0 MSU has a good chance of jumping all the way up to #2 in the rankings. The Gophers beating MSU in the CCG

And MSU beating OSU has the added benefit of diminishing Oregon's win over OSU.
 


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