Is It Realistic to Move On From Johnson This Year?

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Gophers rank in the 300s in…Points, FGM, FGA, 3PM, 3P%, FTM, FT% (last place) and Steals.

They are 293 for FG% and 299 for 3PA.

The problem is that their opponents get more shots against them than almost any team in the country.

One 43 teams give up less offensive rebounds than the Gophers.

All of this means the gophers are…
351st in FGM differential (-3.9/game)
359th in FGA differential (-6.3)
346th in 3P% differential (-5.1%)
359th in FT% differential (-9.3%)
348th in point differential
 



Dakota2 said:
Unlikely, maybe, but not incredibly so. The current freshmen will be much better next year. Christie was always going to have more impact next year than Evans.

Thompson will transfer down. We will have two portal shots and possibly three. I have a feeling Battle is closing out his Gopher career.

If we have three portal picks we get two guards and a post player. Payne can't play 40 minutes and none of the forwards are adequate at the post. Payne needs a backup.

None of the transfers will be high profile guys. If Ben is going to climb out of this hole and survive he will need to score his biggest points ever by picking three portal guys that take big steps forward.

I hope he can do it.
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I think everyone (including me…your resident Wet Blanket) have to take a breath until we know who announces they are transferring out…what is that, a few weeks?

This thing could drastically change if Payne, Battle, Henley (rumored to be gone) say they are taking their talents elsewhere.

At this point, who would be surprised if we heard that Payne was going to Miami or Texas or some other big time program…
 

roadrunner said:
Let's face it. This basketball program has been neglected for a long time. The antiquated arena, the hopeful but inexperienced coach hires, the AD's seeming indifference, the non-existent NIL money. You can't lay that ALL on Ben Johnson. Still, SOMETHING needs to happen to put some life back into Dinkytown.
My two fixes. 1) Announce plans for the building of a new, on-campus basketball arena. Hire a design firm like Ryan or JLG to draw it up. If it takes 3-5 years to build, well, it's something to look forward to anyway. 2) Follow the hockey program and build a homegrown culture, recruiting almost exclusively from Minnesota. Hell, if you're going to lose every game, why not at least give local kids a stage for their talents. We can all support that.
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Ah no. It's this viewpoint that got us Ben Johnson in the first place.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Well, just to speculate - if the U did fire Johnson or somehow convinced him to "resign" - does hiring a new coach change the NIL situation?

From what Ryan James is saying, Evans likes Johnson, but he backed out because of NIL - and apparently because of pressure from his AAU coach and family members over NIL.

So, when you're hiring a new coach, do you need to ask him if he knows any rich dudes who can throw a few million $$ into the hat for NIL?

because you can hire the best coach in the world, but without a good reason for top recruits to choose the Gophers ($$$$$$), does it really move the needle?
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Additionally, the optics of firing a Coach after only 2 seasons, will lead some from the coaching community to think that’s a quick hook 🪝 and likely scare away qualified candidates. You also have limited financial resources due to the buyout, so that further limits the candidate pool.

He’s back next year, no question.

If you can’t deal with the loses and periods of inept basketball; simply don’t watch and spend that time with another avocation.

This isn’t some existential crisis for Pete’s Sake.
 
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golfing18now said:
Ah no. It's this viewpoint that got us Ben Johnson in the first place.
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Apparently that poster didn't understand the critical differences between D1 basketball and hockey:

1) There are 62 D1 hockey teams vs. 360+ D1 basketball teams;

2) This state produces more D1 hockey players than any other US state (by a fair amount actually; Massachusetts and New York are in second and third place). Minnesota isn't even in the Top 20 states for producing nationally ranked high school basketball recruits. The only Big Ten states ranked lower are Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy said:
I think everyone (including me…your resident Wet Blanket) have to take a breath until we know who announces they are transferring out…what is that, a few weeks?

This thing could drastically change if Payne, Battle, Henley (rumored to be gone) say they are taking their talents elsewhere.

At this point, who would be surprised if we heard that Payne was going to Miami or Texas or some other big time program…
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Deep breath is necessary. If everyone who Johnson would want back is back…they should be significantly more competitive even if you don’t add much from the portal. I suspect they’ll add a capable player or two from the portal, lose TT and that’s a net positive. Christie >>> Samuels. The roster will be better if people stay.

I’m not even sure I really care if Henley leaves.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Deep breath is necessary. If everyone who Johnson would want back is back…they should be significantly more competitive even if you don’t add much from the portal. I suspect they’ll add a capable player or two from the portal, lose TT and that’s a net positive. Christie >>> Samuels. The roster will be better if people stay.

I’m not even sure I really care if Henley leaves.
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I agree with the possibilities in the first paragraph but I do care if Henley leaves. I think he's made pretty good progress over the last month.
 



Gopher_In_NYC said:
This isn’t some existential crisis for Pete’s Sake.
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Agreed. This is the 3rd time this century that I've followed a historically bad D1 basketball team closely (twice with the Gophers). The prior two times I whipped myself into a perpetually agitated state. I decided that I wasn't going to do that this time and I must say that was a good decision.
 

cjbfbp said:
I agree with the possibilities in the first paragraph but I do care if Henley leaves. I think he's made pretty good progress over the last month.
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To each their own. I don’t see him as an important player.

I forget about Betts as well. They won’t be great next year with this roster but they weren’t going to be great with Evans so might as well see what we’ve got.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Additionally, the optics of firing a Coach after only 2 seasons, will lead some from the coaching community to think that’s a quick hook 🪝 and likely scare away qualified candidates.
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This is an extremely overrated aspect in the coaching world. Any coach worth a shit isn't thinking about failure or getting fired. This is a non-factor, unless the team/school has shown a documented history of shit-canning coaches in short order on multiple occasions.

This should be of ZERO concern to Coyle and the administration when it's mulling over the possibility of moving on from what was obviously a terrible hire.
 

skiumah1 said:
Many opinions on this and discussion in other threads, but does anybody actually feel that the administration would seriously move on from Johnson after this year? What would it take to do that / is he guaranteed at least 3-4?
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The biggest thing -- by far -- preventing it is the money.

It's just that simple.


Cal fired their Black head coach after year two, after two pretty bad years.

But they had only signed him to a 5-year, $5M contract. Only had to pay him the remaining $3M.


Zero chance that any higher-up at the U will approve an $8M buyout. Just, zero point zero percent chance.

Unless some big donor (group) steps up to take that on, it's a no.
 




Gopher_In_NYC said:
Additionally, the optics of firing a Coach after only 2 seasons, will lead some from the coaching community to think that’s a quick hook 🪝 and likely scare away qualified candidates. You also have limited financial resources due to the buyout, so that further limits the candidate pool.

He’s back next year, no question.

If you can’t deal with the loses and periods of inept basketball; simply don’t watch and spend that time with another avocation.

This isn’t some existential crisis for Pete’s Sake.
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Maybe if we'd fired Pitino after year 3 and now Ben after year 2. But there's no pattern and no optics issue firing someone 5-35 with one of the 3 worst teams in the power 6.

You're probably right about the $$, but it's shortsighted. His buyout will cost $3-4 million less next year and they will lose that much in ticket revenue.
 

howeda7 said:
His buyout will cost $3-4 million less next year and they will lose that much in ticket revenue.
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This could be as correct as the day is long. And you know damn well it doesn't matter.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. That's how that works, for bean counters.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
BREAKING NEWS:
Yesterdays performance has the gophers out of the cellar as the free throw percentage is now better than the Leopards of Lafayette.
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That surprises me (Lafayette I mean). That's where EJ Stephens was from. I would have figured that team to have a number of guys who could shoot free throws if nothing else.

Interesting fact that I just referenced. In EJ Stephens' last year, they were ranked 4th nationally in free throw shooting. Their two leading free throw shooters in terms of attempt (Stephens was one of them) hit over 90% and they had two other primary rotation players who hit over 80%.

From 4th nationally to last in two years.
 
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Unless a donor (group) steps up to take on the $8M buyout, it will not happen.

It's. Just. That. Simple.


That's all Coyle has to say to fans, quite frankly. "Don't email me unless you're ready to write an $8M check."
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Deep breath is necessary. If everyone who Johnson would want back is back…they should be significantly more competitive even if you don’t add much from the portal. I suspect they’ll add a capable player or two from the portal, lose TT and that’s a net positive. Christie >>> Samuels. The roster will be better if people stay.

I’m not even sure I really care if Henley leaves.
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I think the odds of "everyone we want coming back", assuming that includes everyone not named Henley/TT, is like 25% at best.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Additionally, the optics of firing a Coach after only 2 seasons, will lead some from the coaching community to think that’s a quick hook 🪝 and likely scare away qualified candidates. You also have limited financial resources due to the buyout, so that further limits the candidate pool.

He’s back next year, no question.

If you can’t deal with the loses and periods of inept basketball; simply don’t watch and spend that time with another avocation.

This isn’t some existential crisis for Pete’s Sake.
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It's a revenue generating sport dependent on fan interest, fans have every right to be ticked off. The optics already can't be any worse...
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
To each their own. I don’t see him as an important player.

I forget about Betts as well. They won’t be great next year with this roster but they weren’t going to be great with Evans so might as well see what we’ve got.
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I don’t see where Betts gets his minutes next year if most are back and he probably doesn’t either.
 

howeda7 said:
I think the odds of "everyone we want coming back", assuming that includes everyone not named Henley/TT, is like 25% at best.
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I have no idea. Seen some crazy stuff with basketball. Once saw someone release 10 chickens on the court during a timeout. Chaos ensued. If that can happen—Johnson can retain the talent that has previously committed to him.

I don’t think everyone stays either but that’s true for every team in the country
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
Never seen him play. Maybe he’s great. Maybe he thinks he can play a lot as a junior and that’s enough. No idea.
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We shall see after the season but I won’t be shocked or saddened if he does leave. With the log jam we have opening another spot can help to balance the roster. Would be nice to know what we have in him but maybe not knowing is better.
 


howeda7 said:
Is "Didn't Finish Dead Last In Division 1 in any Statistical Category 2022-2023" too big to fit on a banner?
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I wouldn't count on not finishing last in FTs just yet, friend. There's a pallet of bricks sitting at the end of the bench waiting to be laid.
 

Ogee Ogilthorpe said:
This is an extremely overrated aspect in the coaching world. Any coach worth a shit isn't thinking about failure or getting fired. This is a non-factor, unless the team/school has shown a documented history of shit-canning coaches in short order on multiple occasions.

This should be of ZERO concern to Coyle and the administration when it's mulling over the possibility of moving on from what was obviously a terrible hire.
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For sure.
A guy getting a big ten job he wants isn’t going to turn it down because someone who was historically bad got fired.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Additionally, the optics of firing a Coach after only 2 seasons, will lead some from the coaching community to think that’s a quick hook 🪝 and likely scare away qualified candidates. You also have limited financial resources due to the buyout, so that further limits the candidate pool.

He’s back next year, no question.

If you can’t deal with the loses and periods of inept basketball; simply don’t watch and spend that time with another avocation.

This isn’t some existential crisis for Pete’s Sake.
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Coaches see the record and how the team plays. They wouldn’t see it as a quick hook. It’s a Big Ten job. There would be plenty of candidates.
 

Bad Gopher said:
...although, if I recall correctly, Lynn fired Steckel not knowing whether he could convince Bud to come out of retirement. It wasn't simple. Grant had recommended Les for the job. If Lynn had approached Bud about replacing Steckel, he might have told him to give Les another year, another chance. Lynn almost needed to create the crisis first to get Grant to feel like he needed to save the day.

I thought about this as I was typing it: who do we have that would see the U in distress and want to do something about it? When I ask the question, the answer is always alumni. Flip Saunders is dead. Ryan is no Flip. Dutcher or Medved, on the other hand...
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golfing18now said:
Ah no. It's this viewpoint that got us Ben Johnson in the first place.
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And Pitino before him.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
Deep breath is necessary. If everyone who Johnson would want back is back…they should be significantly more competitive even if you don’t add much from the portal. I suspect they’ll add a capable player or two from the portal, lose TT and that’s a net positive. Christie >>> Samuels. The roster will be better if people stay.

I’m not even sure I really care if Henley leaves.
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If Henley stays he will emerge as the second best of the current frosh. One guy, fighting for his career, definitely does not want to lose Henley.
 

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