If Minnesota wins next 3

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Iowa beats wisconsin
wisconsin loses to Northwestern OR Rutgers
Iowa also loses to northwestern


OR

Wisconsin beats Iowa.
Wisconsin loses to northwestern AND Rutgers

Minnesota would clinch in Iowa city
 

Some guy said:
Iowa beats wisconsin
wisconsin loses to Northwestern OR Rutgers

Minnesota would clinch in Iowa city
Click to expand...
Iowa may beat Wisconsin but Northwestern and Rutgers won’t. Fun to play out scenarios but still way too many variables at play. I will just stick with the, we win em all we win the West and it doesn’t matter what anyone else does. :)
 


Not sure who to pull for next week between Iowa and Wisconsin.
I think I'd sooner see Iowa win the west than Wisconsin, so that makes me think Iowa.

It would be nice if WI was dead, but they aren't yet.
 

Next week I am pulling for Minnesota to win a game on the road against Northwestern and Iowa over Wisconsin. If Iowa loses to Wisconsin but beats NU, ILL and Neb, we'd still have to beat them in a heads up match up (they'd be 7-2 if they won and 6-3 if we beat them). But we lost to Iowa, even if we won out, we'd be 7-2 (including beating Wisconsin) but still lose to them despite having the same record. However if Wisconsin loses, the best they can be is 6-3 if they beat us. If we beat Iowa (and the games we'll be favored in) and lost to Wisconsin, we'd be 7-2 and Wisconsin would still be behind us. We'd also win heads up with Iowa an be champs. So to make it a two team instead of three team race, I'm rooting for Iowa which barring any other upsets would make the Wisconsin game moot except for the axe.
 


Face The Facts said:
Not sure who to pull for next week between Iowa and Wisconsin.
I think I'd sooner see Iowa win the west than Wisconsin, so that makes me think Iowa.

It would be nice if WI was dead, but they aren't yet.
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I think the division runs through Madison.
I preseason picked Iowa but would now pick wisconsin
 


Wisconsin is the team to cheer for next week.
 

I'm amazed at the Wisconsin love after one win against an overinflated Purdue team in a fumble fest. The badgers are a very average football team.
 



Face The Facts said:
Not sure who to pull for next week between Iowa and Wisconsin.
I think I'd sooner see Iowa win the west than Wisconsin, so that makes me think Iowa.

It would be nice if WI was dead, but they aren't yet.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I go back and forth on this one as well. The reality is, we need to beat whichever team wins this game. If we take care of business against Northwestern, Illinois and Indiana and beat the team that wins the Iowa/Wisconsin game then we would win the West and the remaining game wouldn't matter I think.

There is zero doubt that Wisconsin/Iowa is going to have massive implications on how the West plays out this season. It is going to be tough for the team that loses to win the division, especially if it is Wisconsin because that would give them 3 conference loses and Iowa would have the tiebreaker against them. Meaning Iowa would have to lose 3 of their games down the stretch for Wisconsin to win the division and that is not going to happen.
 


GopherWeatherGuy said:
I'm amazed at the Wisconsin love after one win against an overinflated Purdue team in a fumble fest. The badgers are a very average football team.
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Yes.
And so are Iowa and Minnesota


Wisconsin has a better defense than Iowa.
Wisconsin has a better offense than iowa In terms of moving the ball.
Wisconsin turns the ball over more than iowa.
Minnesota is the team I still haven’t figured out of the 3 of them.
 

CoMn said:
Next week I am pulling for Minnesota to win a game on the road against Northwestern and Iowa over Wisconsin. If Iowa loses to Wisconsin but beats NU, ILL and Neb, we'd still have to beat them in a heads up match up (they'd be 7-2 if they won and 6-3 if we beat them). But we lost to Iowa, even if we won out, we'd be 7-2 (including beating Wisconsin) but still lose to them despite having the same record. However if Wisconsin loses, the best they can be is 6-3 if they beat us. If we beat Iowa (and the games we'll be favored in) and lost to Wisconsin, we'd be 7-2 and Wisconsin would still be behind us. We'd also win heads up with Iowa an be champs. So to make it a two team instead of three team race, I'm rooting for Iowa which barring any other upsets would make the Wisconsin game moot except for the axe.
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Yes, although a more dramatic chain of events would be Iowa losing to Wisconsin and the Gophers losing to Iowa. Then, in the final game of the season, Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Iowa loses to Nebraska at Lincoln. That would also give us a clear cut divisional win with only 2 conference losses while the other two major contenders both would have 3 (assuming all three teams win the rest of their games). It's not impossible that Nebraska could beat Iowa; Iowa margins of victory in the last three have been 6, 3, and 3.

Clearly the best case scenario would be beating both of our primary rivals but I still think that's probably a bridge too far and that we have a somewhat higher probability of beating Wisconsin than Iowa at Kinnick.
 



Some guy said:
Iowa beats wisconsin
wisconsin loses to Northwestern OR Rutgers
Iowa also loses to northwestern


OR

Wisconsin beats Iowa.
Wisconsin loses to northwestern AND Rutgers

Minnesota would clinch in Iowa city
Click to expand...
We lost at home to a Bowling Green team we were supposed to beat by 30 points. Let’s focus only on Northwestern please. One week at a time. I assure you, if we do that and take care of our business without looking ahead, it won’t matter what happens in other games. We will end up where we want to be. Need to beat the Wildcats next.
 

Some guy said:
Iowa beats wisconsin
wisconsin loses to Northwestern OR Rutgers
Iowa also loses to northwestern


OR

Wisconsin beats Iowa.
Wisconsin loses to northwestern AND Rutgers

Minnesota would clinch in Iowa city
Click to expand...
Let's tear down their goalposts!!!
 


U2Gopher said:
We lost at home to a Bowling Green team we were supposed to beat by 30 points. Let’s focus only on Northwestern please. One week at a time. I assure you, if we do that and take care of our business without looking ahead, it won’t matter what happens in other games. We will end up where we want to be. Need to beat the Wildcats next.
Click to expand...
I assure you, what I post on here has no bearing on the outcome of any game
 


Some guy said:
Wisconsin has a better defense than Iowa.
Wisconsin has a better offense than iowa In terms of moving the ball.
Wisconsin turns the ball over more than iowa.
Minnesota is the team I still haven’t figured out of the 3 of them.
Click to expand...

1) Agreed

2) I can see why one would say that but I'm not sure. Neither has a particularly good offense but Wisconsin has become very one dimensional. We complain about our coaches handcuffing our passing game but Wisconsin's coaches have become even more suspicious of theirs. Wisconsin's passing attempts have declined each game over the last five and yesterday they threw only 8 times. If we can keep Wisconsin under 200 yards rushing, we have a decent shot. They had 198 yards rushing against Army but scored only 20 points. They needed a late 4th quarter fumble recovery at the Army one-yard line to seal the game. Iowa isn't great offensively but they are not one-dimensional.

3) True

4) Well, the media narrative about Minnesota recently is that they have been an enigma but I think that's mostly because of the now infamous Bowling Green State loss. I was glad to hear Dinardo say on yesterday's Final Drive that he thought Minnesota, except for the Bowling Green game, was one of the most consistent teams in the conference. I think we have emerged with an identity as follows:

-- We are a good defensive team, probably not as good as Wisconsin or Iowa, but not that far behind.

-- Our coaches want to run as much as possible because of our offensive line, because that style chews up the game minutes, and that style potentially results in fewer turnovers. Also, I think the coaches felt that it was essential going forward to give these young replacement backs enough rushes to build confidence. That might have been the most positive team building effect of the Maryland game.

-- Although we are last in the league in passing attempts per game (by a fair margin: only 18.3 attempts per game), we can pass if we need to and pretty effectively. We are ranked 4th in the league (behind OSU, Nebraska, and Michigan State) in passing yards per attempt with an average of 8.18 yards per attempt. Wisconsin ranks 10th (6.27 yards per attempt) and Iowa 9th (6.48 yards per attempt). We've had only 4 interceptions and they all occurred in two games (Bowling Green and Nebraska).
 

As to number two

The reason I say that is because Iowa is 120/130 in yards per play.

Minnesota is 94
Wisconsin is 90



Iowa was turning people at an historically unsustainable rate. When they don’t, that 120 really shows.
 

"Iowa beats Wisconsin"

cLE9ogm.png
 



MplsGopher said:
"Iowa beats Wisconsin"

cLE9ogm.png
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Yes, Wisconsin definitely has an edge in the series over the last decade and a half. There are a few interesting observations in the data you posted though:

1) Wisconsin has not beaten Iowa in years where Wisconsin was not ranked at the time of the game.

2) In the three years where both were ranked at the time of the game, Wisconsin won those but Wisconsin had a higher ranking in each of those years.

3) In the one year where neither were ranked at the time of the game, Iowa won that one.

4) In the one year where Iowa was ranked and Wisconsin was not, Iowa won that one in Madison. Coincidently, Iowa had the same ranking at the time of that game that they have now.

5) Iowa has won only four of those games posted above but two of those wins were in Madison.

Of course, none of this prior game history is controlling on this season's matchup but we do have a precedent for the current situation. I'm assuming the pollsters won't rank Wisconsin this week after the premature ranking of Purdue after one great game.
 

cjbfbp said:
Yes, Wisconsin definitely has an edge in the series over the last decade and a half. There are a few interesting observations in the data you posted though:

1) Wisconsin has not beaten Iowa in years where Wisconsin was not ranked at the time of the game.

2) In the three years where both were ranked at the time of the game, Wisconsin won those but Wisconsin had a higher ranking in each of those years.

3) In the one year where neither were ranked at the time of the game, Iowa won that one.

4) In the one year where Iowa was ranked and Wisconsin was not, Iowa won that one in Madison. Coincidently, Iowa had the same ranking at the time of that game that they have now.

5) Iowa has won only four of those games posted above but two of those wins were in Madison.

Of course, none of this prior game history is controlling on this season's matchup but we do have a precedent for the current situation. I'm assuming the pollsters won't rank Wisconsin this week after the premature ranking of Purdue after one great game.
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And even if they do, basically swapping Wisc and Purdue, it would be earily similar to the situation of last year, except in Madison instead of IC.

Maybe last year really will be the best comparison. Or maybe not.

(note, I think you missed last year in your point 2)
 

Some guy said:
Iowa was turning people at an historically unsustainable rate. When they don’t, that 120 really shows.
Click to expand...

True, but that's only shown once so far this season. Maybe Iowa's coaches got pretty conservative too when they jumped to early leads. We've certainly seen that a few times.
 

cjbfbp said:
Yes, Wisconsin definitely has an edge in the series over the last decade and a half. There are a few interesting observations in the data you posted though:

1) Wisconsin has not beaten Iowa in years where Wisconsin was not ranked at the time of the game.

2) In the three years where both were ranked at the time of the game, Wisconsin won those but Wisconsin had a higher ranking in each of those years.

3) In the one year where neither were ranked at the time of the game, Iowa won that one.

4) In the one year where Iowa was ranked and Wisconsin was not, Iowa won that one in Madison. Coincidently, Iowa had the same ranking at the time of that game that they have now.

5) Iowa has won only four of those games posted above but two of those wins were in Madison.

Of course, none of this prior game history is controlling on this season's matchup but we do have a precedent for the current situation. I'm assuming the pollsters won't rank Wisconsin this week after the premature ranking of Purdue after one great game.
Click to expand...
And considering most are close games.
I think Wisconsin wins the game. But would not be at all surprised if Iowa did.
Discounting turnovers wisconsin a slightly better team. Can’t discount turnovers. Toss up game


wisconsin up 7-4 in the last 13 years
Wisconsin up 4-2 last 6 meetings
Iowa won last year
 

MplsGopher said:
And even if they do, basically swapping Wisc and Purdue, it would be earily similar to the situation of last year, except in Madison instead of IC.

Maybe last year really will be the best comparison. Or maybe not.

(note, I think you missed last year in your point 2)
Click to expand...

Thank you for pointing that out! My eyes didn't drift low enough in the chart I guess.
 

cjbfbp said:
True, but that's only shown once so far this season. Maybe Iowa's coaches got pretty conservative too when they jumped to early leads. We've certainly seen that a few times.
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Yards per play takes into account pace of play.

michigan state isn’t exactly a high flying juggernaut
They’re 25th

Iowas 120th offense shows even in wins.
In a dogfight with Colorado state who is awful when they tie turnovers 1:1
Outgained by double yardage against Iowa state

Turnovers is how they win.
and they could continue to win by turnovers. But without turnover battle they’re even vulnerable against teams like northwestern and Illinois
 


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