How many more wins for Ben to lose the disaster level?

[Bob_Loblaw]

I'm assuming you mean 8th through 10th place. Yes? Or, do you mean 8, 9, or 10 wins? Can't have an 8-10 conference record of course.

I had a brain fart with this, lets call it 9-11.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I definitely agree with that, I think he is the most likely to transfer at this point. Im hoping he can work out of this recent funk and earn back some minutes and stick with it.

In some ways it's a compliment to him.

He has talent and could get run at another school but he's kind of blocked right now by Garcia and Payne.

 

[Go4POV]

I definitely agree with that, I think he is the most likely to transfer at this point. Im hoping he can work out of this recent funk and earn back some minutes and stick with it.

JOJ’s minutes are being eaten up by both Christie (who has rarely stepped off the floor in the last 2 games) and Fox. He is the kind of player who gets better as the game flows — spot minutes don’t work so well for him. Would hate to lose him, for sure. Next year his minutes may well increase, but players want PT.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

JOJ’s minutes are being eaten up by both Christie (who has rarely stepped off the floor in the last 2 games) and Fox. He is the kind of player who gets better as the game flows — spot minutes don’t work so well for him. Would hate to lose him, for sure. Next year his minutes may well increase, but players want PT.

I don't think they're really getting eaten up by Christie.

Ben made the correct decision about halfway through the year to not play Ihnen or JOJ at the 3 going forward. If Christie played less, I think more of those minutes would go to Carrington/Mitchell than they would JOJ.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

So no number from you then?

What do your analytics say?

I have no opinion on the question at the top of this page but, since you seem to want a number, I will give my preference for the rest of this season.

The rating analysts predict the Gophers as favorites in four of their remaining nine games. If they won four more games, that would give them a 10-10 conference record and a 19-12 record. I would be very happy with that since I never imagined they would do that well before the season started (and didn't think so earlier in the season either). At this point, I'd call the probability of this result or better as "pretty good."

It's possible that they could win 5 more games to go 11-9 in conference and finish with a 20-11 overall record but I don't think that's so likely.

If they won only 3 more games, they would finish 9-11 in the conference and have an 18-13 overall record. Although I'd consider that a bit of a disappointment at this time, 18-13 is about as well as I thought they could do before the season started and a 9-11 conference record is better than I thought they could do in conference back then. What concerns me most about getting only 3 more wins is that may not keep us in the NET range for a likely NIT bid.

Winning only two more games would be a bummer at this point but I think Johnson will have done enough (but not by much!) to get another season. That would give us a 17-14 overall regular season record and would be the first winning season since 2019 so that's at least worth something.

 

[Bobek]

Pay heed to the Bobek, for he is wise.

Not wise, just an adult.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

I'll never understand the obsessing over the first 2 seasons. Especially of a first-time young coach who inherited an empty roster.

Not obsessing. Just taking it into account. They were not exhibition games.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

If his 2 wins seasons are his first two and he keeps building on this season, which has been a fun surprise, it's a bit silly to set some arbitrary number. Transfers, injuries, circumstances beyond his control, etc. can totally upend a year. Are we making overall progress; are they improving as players; are they competing? Rather judge him on these criteria. Oh, yes, having lived through the Ohio State brawl, Mitch Lee and Madison; Jan Gangelhoff, etc. are his players who we want representing the U of M?

It may be an arbitrary number but it’s an arbitrary number that has been achieved by every non-interim coach since the 40s. Your first sentence is exactly why I have an arbitrary baseline. Because we don't know what happens in years 4, 5, etc. So we assess based on the data available to us today. If he quit tomorrow we would all say definitively that his tenure was unsuccesful, right? I'd assume so, he'd statistically be the worst modern era coach we've ever had.

You can judge him on whatever aribtrary criteria you want. My arbitrary criteria is wins-losses. We’re on the right trajectory, but it does not erase what has already occurred. Coincidentally if the trajectory continues he'll be around .500 (or a bit better) at the start of big ten play next year. Then we'll see what's up.

But you'll have to excuse me for waiting for more than 6 conference wins in a year to form a conclusion on Ben.