Bubble Watch

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RogueGopher said:
Saturday's outcomes:
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  • Last four in teams held strong (minus Indiana (12-12)).
  • Xavier (13-5) gets a massive win vs a ranked Creighton team. Their best wins are Oklahoma and Creighton.
  • The gap seperating the last four in and first four out is getting wider.
  • Minnesota (13-12), Stanford (14-11), Ole Miss (13-10) all took bad losses yesterday.
  • Duke (11-9) still has work to do. Road games vs Ga Tech (13-8) and UNC this week are must win for them.
  • Minnesota clearly isn't the same team without Robbins and Kalscheur. A Robbins return this week could give the team a spark heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
  • Michigan State (13-9) has a tough stretch this week with a road game at Maryland and 2 games vs #3 Michigan.

2/28 bubble games:

Michigan State at Maryland 1:00pm CBS
Utah State at Nevada 6:00pm FS1
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Michigan State hosts Indiana on Tuesday, before their first of 2 straight games vs. Michigan.
 



The coaches are louder than the announcers on the mic for this MSU Maryland game today. It's pretty good stuff actually. Turgeon and Izzo comin at ya.
 





RogueGopher said:
This is from last night right? Xavier beat #13 and he moved them down?

MSU loses to Maryland. Bubble tightens.
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Pretty sure he did this list before most of the results yesterday. It was certainly before our game.
 

MUgopher32 said:
Pretty sure he did this list before most of the results yesterday. It was certainly before our game.
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No, he knew Xavier won and is not giving them credit. If you follow his tweets, he doesn't like Xavier for some reason.
 



3/1:

Saint Louis vs UMass 5:00pm
Richmond vs St. Joe's 5:00pm
Colorado State vs Air Force 9:00pm CBSSN
 

I don't follow all the tournament prognostications all that closely. Are we really still on the bubble anywhere at this point?

This team is playing so poorly right now that anyone watching us would have a hard time justifying giving us a spot. That said, we do have those super impressive wins on our resume that will be really hard for other teams to top in regards to quality.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I don't follow all the tournament prognostications all that closely. Are we really still on the bubble anywhere at this point?

This team is playing so poorly right now that anyone watching us would have a hard time justifying giving us a spot. That said, we do have those super impressive wins on our resume that will be really hard for other teams to top in regards to quality.
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In theory, yes. Beat Penn State and Rutgers to finish the season at 15-12 (8-12). Wins vs 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference. Perfect non-conference schedule. But still likely just outside the cutline.
It comes down to the following:
Will Robbins be coming back this week? He was the key to most big wins we've had this year; Iowa, OSU, Mich, etc. He was Big Ten player of the week several times this year for crying out loud. His importance can't be ignored.

In the Gophers' five victories over ranked opponents this season, Robbins averaged 19 points, nine rebounds and 3½ blocks, including vs. Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.

If Robbins doesn't come back: No chance

BUT...

If Robbins were to come back and we won @PSU (quad 1 possibly) and RUTG (Which they would have good chance at winning). putting them at 15-12.
Then you get to the Big Ten Tournament. Because of how bad they've been without Robbins and Kalscheur, they slipped to the bottom 4 in conference. That could give them a bonus game in the Big Ten tournament (neutral site games are important for resume regardless of opponent)
Say they play Nebraska again and win that, now they are 16-12. They then would play a Wisconsin or a Purdue level team (would be a Quad 1). Adds to the list of quality wins the Gophers already have.
That gets them to 17-12 with a matchup against a possible top 10 opponent (one they've already beat unless it's Illinois).
Even if they didn't win that, and go to 17-13, they would still have just won 4 of 5 games, 1 road and 2 neutral site games. Committee looks at whole body of work and the Gophers have the quality wins that are unmatched with other bubble teams, and Kalshcheur is expected to be back by tourney time. They see a fully healthy Gopher team turn a corner down the stretch and let them into the dance through the back door.

TL/DR; Thre is still a chance.

(( not saying I think this will actually happen. Just a thought. ))
 
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RogueGopher said:
In theory, yes. Beat Penn State and Rutgers to finish the season at 15-12 (8-12). Wins vs 3 of the top 4 teams in the conference. Perfect non-conference schedule. But still likely just outside the cutline.
It comes down to the following:
Will Robbins be coming back this week? He was the key to most big wins we've had this year; Iowa, OSU, Mich, etc. He was Big Ten player of the week several times this year for crying out loud. His importance can't be ignored.

In the Gophers' five victories over ranked opponents this season, Robbins averaged 19 points, nine rebounds and 3½ blocks, including vs. Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.

If Robbins doesn't come back: No chance

BUT...

If Robbins were to come back and we won @PSU (quad 1 possibly) and RUTG (Which they would have good chance at winning). putting them at 15-12.
Then you get to the Big Ten Tournament. Because of how bad they've been without Robbins and Kalscheur, they slipped to the bottom 4 in conference. That could give them a bonus game in the Big Ten tournament (neutral site games are important for resume regardless of opponent)
Say they play Nebraska again and win that, now they are 16-12. They then would play a Wisconsin or a Purdue level team (would be a Quad 1). Adds to the list of quality wins the Gophers already have.
That gets them to 17-12 with a matchup against a possible top 10 opponent (one they've already beat unless it's Illinois).
Even if they didn't win that, and go to 17-13, they would still have just won 4 of 5 games, 1 road and 2 neutral site games. Committee looks at whole body of work and the Gophers have the quality wins that are unmatched with other bubble teams, and Kalshcheur is expected to be back by tourney time. They see a fully healthy Gopher team turn a corner down the stretch and let them into the dance through the back door.

TL/DR; Thre is still a chance.

(( not saying I think this will actually happen. Just a thought. ))
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If this did happen and they got to 17 wins,

They're In.

Which is great. I love for the Gophers to do well. Coyle just needs to remember he has already fired Pitino.
 



Otis said:
If this did happen and they got to 17 wins,

They're In.

Which is great. I love for the Gophers to do well. Coyle just needs to remember he has already fired Pitino.
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Don't worry, it won't.

They quit, gave up. So did their coach. They've lost to not just 2 of the worst teams in the Big Ten, these are 2 of the worst power 5 teams in the country.

That said. I would LOVE if they could do what was just mentioned and squeeked back in...
 

Go Gophs said:
Don't worry, it won't.

They quit, gave up. So did their coach. They've lost to not just 2 of the worst teams in the Big Ten, these are 2 of the worst power 5 teams in the country.

That said. I would LOVE if they could do what was just mentioned and squeeked back in...
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Thanks for the cold splash of water in the face Go Gophs! Occasionally, I imagine what could be instead of what will be.
 

Go Gophs said:
Don't worry, it won't.

They quit, gave up. So did their coach. They've lost to not just 2 of the worst teams in the Big Ten, these are 2 of the worst power 5 teams in the country.

That said. I would LOVE if they could do what was just mentioned and squeeked back in...
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They did not quit. They're down 2 of the most important players on the team. Carr doesn't go score 41 if he "quit". They also were down 13 late to Nebraska and clawed their way back in it. They definitely still want to win but are missing their important pieces.
 

RogueGopher said:
They did not quit. They're down 2 of the most important players on the team. Carr doesn't go score 41 if he "quit". They also were down 13 late to Nebraska and clawed their way back in it. They definitely still want to win but are missing their important pieces.
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OK, you might be right, then they are just bad. They give up big juicy percentages almost every game no matter who they play, that to me shows bad defense. They also lose the rebound battle nightly. Effort...

I agree losing Robbins hurts. Gabe would help some, but I don't feel he is anything to lose sleep over...
 

Otis said:
Thanks for the cold splash of water in the face Go Gophs! Occasionally, I imagine what could be instead of what will be.
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Sorry. I am with you though, I want to see it. I want them in the dance. Always do. Feels so empty when they aren't. Still watch a lot of the tourney games, but its just much more fun even if we go one and done to have them in.

Here's hoping. All it takes is 2-3 guys to get hot I guess!!
 

They need 3 non-Nebraska/Northwestern wins for a shot. 4 to feel decent. That means beating PSU and Rutgers and advancing to the semi's of the BTT. The way they are playing, that seems impossible. But who knows, Robbins might come back and spark something.
 

RogueGopher said:
They did not quit. They're down 2 of the most important players on the team. Carr doesn't go score 41 if he "quit". They also were down 13 late to Nebraska and clawed their way back in it. They definitely still want to win but are missing their important pieces.
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i agree with this. some of the guys out there are trying (Carr especially)
 

Go Gophs said:
OK, you might be right, then they are just bad. They give up big juicy percentages almost every game no matter who they play, that to me shows bad defense. They also lose the rebound battle nightly. Effort...

I agree losing Robbins hurts. Gabe would help some, but I don't feel he is anything to lose sleep over...
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Kalscheur was starting to shoot better right before he got hurt. His last 5 games he was shooting 32% from 3, including his 4/7 night vs Purdue. He is also one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. He does have the ability to drive to the hoop and was 80% from the free throw line.
Lose your top 2 defenders, opponents shooting will go up. Just how it goes.
I don't think rebounding has been such a big issue. It's not a huge discrepency, and I think they've made up the lack of rebounding with the ability to turn teams over a lot (offense hasn't taken advantage enough of this the last 2 games; 35 tov between NW and NEB).
 

Awful loss by Richmond at home to a 4-14 St. Joseph's team. They are now for sure out of the conversation. Would to win the A10 Tourney.

Saint Louis beat UMass, an important win for them. Move to 4th in the A10, grabbing a double bye for the A10 tournament.

Rutgers lost to Nebraska, and are now 13-10 (9-10), they are trending the wrong direction right now. Have dropped 4 of 6. They have 1 remaining game, at Minnesota (BUBBLE BATTLE).

Game isn't over yet, but Colorado State is up 16 over Air Force. They continue to take care of business, staying on the right side of the bubble.

A10 and MW tournaments will be most important non-power 6 conference tournaments to follow. The bid-stealing potential is high.
 

We woke a sleeping giant in Lincoln...
 


3/2 BUBBLE GAMES:

Xavier at Georgetown (66-72)
Boise State vs Fresno State (64-67)
Indiana at Michigan State
Duke at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss vs Kentucky
 
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Joe Lunardi's most recent projection:
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No comments about the lack of Minnesota on the board. We've heard it all at this point. THIS THREAD IS ABOUT THE BUBBLE. ENJOY THE BUBBLE. THIS IS MARCH.
 

Michigan State, Duke, Indiana and Syracuse all on the bubble looking in.
 

Indiana falls below .500 with a loss to Michigan State. Tough biscuits.
 

Duke drops one to GA Tech. I don't see the Blue Devils making it now.
 

Horizon League Quarterfinals with our guy Gates were all super competitive. 3 of the 4 games went to OT. The other was a 1 point game. Amazing to have a conference that competitive. Cleveland St. did pull through in 3 OTs, and they're the 1 seed. Wright State (Nagy) got bounced by Milwaukee first round.
 

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