Bubble Watch

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RogueGopher

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Saturday 2/27 Bubble Watch:
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Indiana vs 3 Michigan (57-73)
GA Tech vs Syracuse (84-77)
VCU at Davidson (57-65)
UConn vs Marquette (80-62)
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (70-75)
Colorado St vs AirForce (72-49)
Boise St. vs 22 SDSU (58-62)
Xavier vs 13 Creighton (77-69)
Duke vs Louisville (73-80 OT)
Stanford vs Oregon St (62-73)
Minnesota at Nebraska (74-78)
 
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3 of the 4 final regular season games against teams worse than us in the conference and the 4th at home against a team just slightly better. Really couldn't ask for a better stretch of opponents to close out a season and hit the Big Ten Tournament on a high note.....in theory....

In reality, have already blown cupcake game number one at home against Northwestern and have yet to win a road game in front of empty gyms where home court advantage should be far less of a factor. So even though Nebraska and Penn State are both garbage, until this team shows it can win a road game all bets are off.

I am sure we are one of the toughest teams for the selection committee to figure out. There will be very few teams that can claim the quality wins we have and yet, watching this team play right now there is nothing about it that screams this is a tournament team. And if we manage to get in we will almost certainly be viewed as a very likely one and done team.
 

MNVCGUY said:
3 of the 4 final regular season games against teams worse than us in the conference and the 4th at home against a team just slightly better. Really couldn't ask for a better stretch of opponents to close out a season and hit the Big Ten Tournament on a high note.....in theory....

In reality, have already blown cupcake game number one at home against Northwestern and have yet to win a road game in front of empty gyms where home court advantage should be far less of a factor. So even though Nebraska and Penn State are both garbage, until this team shows it can win a road game all bets are off.

I am sure we are one of the toughest teams for the selection committee to figure out. There will be very few teams that can claim the quality wins we have and yet, watching this team play right now there is nothing about it that screams this is a tournament team. And if we manage to get in we will almost certainly be viewed as a very likely one and done team.
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It feels like we'll make the tourney and that will be used as an excuse to keep Pitino.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
It feels like we'll make the tourney and that will be used as an excuse to keep Pitino.
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Agree the team probably sneaks into the tourney but I don't know if that alone will be enough to save Pitino at this point.

All that said, if they lose tonight the tournament hopes are basically dead even with the impressive wins on our resume.
 


Sorry but after NW game my feel is we are off the bubble and have one step out the door to nothing. Lose today and short of winning the Big 10 tourney title we are done.
 

Outsider said:
Sorry but after NW game my feel is we are off the bubble and have one step out the door to nothing. Lose today and short of winning the Big 10 tourney title we are done.
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Yeah, I would think so too, but Lunardi has them as the first out.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Agree the team probably sneaks into the tourney but I don't know if that alone will be enough to save Pitino at this point.

All that said, if they lose tonight the tournament hopes are basically dead even with the impressive wins on our resume.
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Probably makes it? Wow. Based on what?
 

Outsider said:
Sorry but after NW game my feel is we are off the bubble and have one step out the door to nothing. Lose today and short of winning the Big 10 tourney title we are done.
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thank you for saying sorry.
 




howeda7 said:
Probably makes it? Wow. Based on what?
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Find a way to win a few of these last 3 and maybe one in the Big Ten Tournament. Entire resume is built around being the only team in the country to beat Michigan as well as having wins over Ohio State and Iowa. I mean how many unranked teams out there can boast wins over the current #3, #4 and #9 teams in the country?

We 100% do not look like a tournament worthy team right now, but when it comes down to it, those wins are going to carry a lot of weight and could easily put us over the top when up against a team with a similar record.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Find a way to win a few of these last 3 and maybe one in the Big Ten Tournament. Entire resume is built around being the only team in the country to beat Michigan as well as having wins over Ohio State and Iowa. I mean how many unranked teams out there can boast wins over the current #3, #4 and #9 teams in the country?

We 100% do not look like a tournament worthy team right now, but when it comes down to it, those wins are going to carry a lot of weight and could easily put us over the top when up against a team with a similar record.
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Especially since the bubble it horrific. Absolutely horrific. The fact we are still the first team out after the past month tells you how bad the bubble is. Which I've been saying for a few weeks. Compare Minnesota to other bubble teams and the resumes don't really compare.

As unlikely as it will be for this team to find any combination of three wins (very unlikely, but not impossible), if they do, they are likely in the field.
 

tjgopher said:
Especially since the bubble it horrific. Absolutely horrific. The fact we are still the first team out after the past month tells you how bad the bubble is. Which I've been saying for a few weeks. Compare Minnesota to other bubble teams and the resumes don't really compare.

As unlikely as it will be for this team to find any combination of three wins (very unlikely, but not impossible), if they do, they are likely in the field.
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We are definitely in must win territory and a loss tonight against a crap Nebraska team might be the final nail in the coffin. But assuming they pull it together enough to win a couple here it may well prove to be enough to get in.

Haven't looked at the other teams around us but clearly 3 top 10 wins is going to be hard for any bubble team to contend with.
 



MNVCGUY said:
We are definitely in must win territory and a loss tonight against a crap Nebraska team might be the final nail in the coffin. But assuming they pull it together enough to win a couple here it may well prove to be enough to get in.

Haven't looked at the other teams around us but clearly 3 top 10 wins is going to be hard for any bubble team to contend with.
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Making the tourney means nothing....Another bottom finish for Pitino in the B10....After Coyle witnessed the last two debacles, he is getting a short list ready.
 

Indiana is in trouble. Now .500 overall and 2 remaining games on the road against MSU and PUR.
 


RogueGopher said:
No one cares about your opinion troll.
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Why, because he doesn’t agree with your opinion? There are those of us who think the bar should be higher, show something in the rugged Big Ten schedule and the tournament would be the result instead of these discussions every year about being on the bubble. I don’t necessarily always agree with him but he’s entitled to his opinion just like me.
 

RogueGopher said:
No beacuse this thread isn't about Pitino and just brings it up for no reason. I don't give a shit who the coach is. I want the team to win. He does not.
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I want the team to win with a new coach...Should have fired him years ago
 



Bob_Loblaw said:
Yeah, I would think so too, but Lunardi has them as the first out.
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Updated to 5th team out.

And winning games like Nebraska and Penn State are "hold serve" type of games. They don't move you up. Other teams either lose bad and drop below or win against teams with a pulse and leap frog.
 

UConn
MUgopher32 said:
Updated to 5th team out.

And winning games like Nebraska and Penn State are "hold serve" type of games. They don't move you up. Other teams either lose bad and drop below or win against teams with a pulse and leap frog.
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Who has them as 5th team out?
 

UConn (vs Marquette) and Colorado State (vs Air Force) both with big blowout wins today.
Xavier in a close one at halftime with #13 Creighton. Would be huge for Xavier's chances if they pull the upset.
#23 SDSU trying to close out Boise, up 6 with 6 minutes to go.

What a great day for bubble watching! College basketball at its finest.
 

Not bubble... But Oklahoma - OK state was a great game. OSU has now beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma back to back.
 

Dutcher and the Aztecs win the MW regular season title with their win over Boise State.
Boise St. coming up short in quality win opportunities. No big win, but have quantity. Not sure it'll be enough for an at large bid for them.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Find a way to win a few of these last 3 and maybe one in the Big Ten Tournament. Entire resume is built around being the only team in the country to beat Michigan as well as having wins over Ohio State and Iowa. I mean how many unranked teams out there can boast wins over the current #3, #4 and #9 teams in the country?

We 100% do not look like a tournament worthy team right now, but when it comes down to it, those wins are going to carry a lot of weight and could easily put us over the top when up against a team with a similar record.
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none obviously because we're the only team to beat Michigan :D
 

MUgopher32 said:
Updated to 5th team out.

And winning games like Nebraska and Penn State are "hold serve" type of games. They don't move you up. Other teams either lose bad and drop below or win against teams with a pulse and leap frog.
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right now PSU is a quad 1 win (they're #50 and it's a road game) so I wouldn't say that's just a hold serve game
 



Saturday's outcomes:
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  • Last four in teams held strong (minus Indiana (12-12)).
  • Xavier (13-5) gets a massive win vs a ranked Creighton team. Their best wins are Oklahoma and Creighton.
  • The gap seperating the last four in and first four out is getting wider.
  • Minnesota (13-12), Stanford (14-11), Ole Miss (13-10) all took bad losses yesterday.
  • Duke (11-9) still has work to do. Road games vs Ga Tech (13-8) and UNC this week are must win for them.
  • Minnesota clearly isn't the same team without Robbins and Kalscheur. A Robbins return this week could give the team a spark heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
  • Michigan State (13-9) has a tough stretch this week with a road game at Maryland, home vs Indiana, and 2 games vs #3 Michigan.

2/28 bubble games:

Michigan State at Maryland (55-73)
Utah State at Nevada 6:00pm FS1
 

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