Big Ten Mess....I mean West

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MaxyJR1 said:
Sitting here with 4 games to go, the West is obviously wide open. Having tOSU and MI on the schedule might end up being the difference in going to Indy as we couldn't afford another loss.

1. Gophers- vs Illinois, @Purdue, @tOSU, vs WI
2. Iowa- @NW, vs Rutgers, vs IL, @NE
3. Wisconsin- @IN, vs NW, vs NE, @MN
4. Nebraska-@MSU, vs MD, @WI, vs IA

Does someone in this group find a way to go 4-0?
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In order of likelihood to win out I would say 1. Wisconsin 2. Nebraska 3. Iowa 4. Minnesota
However, I do not think anyone has a very high chance of winning out. Wisconsin will likely lose to either Nebraska or Minnesota. Nebraska will likely lose to either Iowa or Wisconsin, maybe even Maryland. Iowa will likely lose to either Rutgers or Nebraska, Northwestern could also upset them. Unless a miracle happens, Minnesota will lose to Ohio St, Wisconsin will be tough, and Illinois could surprise as well. The ending of the season will be an absolute mess in the Big Ten West. Good news for Minnesota is that so far they hold the head to head tie breaker over 2 of the 3 contenders, this is not something they have been able to say in recent years at this point in the season.
 


If Northwestern wins out (they still play Iowa and Wisconsin) and Nebraska loses twice (also play Iowa and Wisconsin), Northwestern would win the West, right? Wasn't it their pattern to win the West every two years? I think this would just be a one year delay off that cycle. Wouldn't that be the most Westy things of them all?
 

What is the difference between a division being labelled a "mess", and a division that is highly competitive, with multiple teams still in the running?

Maybe exactly the same thing?

The reason I ask: whether we label it competitive and entertaining or we call it a "mess", it will almost certainly go away after this 2023 season. I hope we fans don't find ourselves missing this "mess" next year; because our Gophers may no longer be competing for any kind of title.
 

Governor Sibley said:
There is a story to be written about why offensive skill position players will not come to play in the West. The trend in the last five years is astonishing. The decline in talent is precipitous and division wide.
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This trend has been forever. The top guys and for sure the top skill guys have always and still do go to OSU, Michigan, some to PSU and get paid. The best (or at least most experienced)OL, LB, TE, RB play in the West where they are top dogs on their respective teams. These guys are mostly developed, not bought, so the revolving door on OL continues at these universities. Thus the running the ball constantly.

I've said it before here and will mention again. For teams with talent levels like MN, Iowa, Wisc, etc, basically the whole west, the only way to win against your peers and even have the chance to compete against the big boys is to load up on STUD(or develop) OL and DL, LB cornfed type players and win ugly.

You will never get 4 and 5 star skill position players(some RBs) on the regular unless you are a helmet/blue blood/cheater school. To win from that DISadvantage point requires a different philosophy, etc to even compete.
 


MNVCGUY said:
If you look at the current top 25 the midwest is very lightly represented. So I think you could expand it to why can't schools in the midwest attract high level talent?

The midwest is made up of Ill, IN, IA, KN, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD and WI. Of those 10 states there are only 4 teams in the current AP top 25 and 3 of the 4 are helmet schools. Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Missouri.

College football has pretty much forgotten about the Midwest at this point as the talent is along the coasts and in the South.
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Do you really need an answer to this question? It has been for years and even worse now about money, skirting the rules, not having to do schoolwork, better chance to get drafted, etc.

The kids that are highly talented in the Midwest get paid by the Midwest powers, or go to the south. Any chance of getting highly rated southern players to the Midwest is $$$, etc only. Otherwise they will just go SEC(top ones for highest bucks, favors, etc) and if they want to stay local, the rest of that 3-4 star talent will fill up the rest of the SEC/ACC.
 

StudentSectionMenace said:
Athan Kaliakmanis was a 4 star
Daniel Jackson was a 4 star
Elijah Spencer was a 4 star transfer
Darius Taylor was a 4 star

Wisconsin and Iowa are able to get 4 star skill position players

Offensive skill position players do come to the west, the problem is how they are used and coached up
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OK, great you named a handful. Now compare that to the rosters at OSU, Mich, and PSU. Because the rest of the east is no better than the west.

Yes, there are some that come here, but it is a tiny percentage when compared to the helmets. Also, even if they come to one of these types of schools that litter the West, nowadays they can get poached after they developed by the big boys or whoever can pony up anywhere in the nation.

Here's an example of that but it is a player from the East who played on another also-ran. The QB from Indiana - Penix.

Edit, I would also argue that the coaching is MUCH better in the West than it is in the East. How hard is it for whoever Ohio State has as their coach to win most of their games each year? They are playing with a stacked deck, more resources, money, fans, etc. They can also get away with murder at their respective Universities as well as long as the team is winning.
 
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Go Gophs said:
This trend has been forever. The top guys and for sure the top skill guys have always and still do go to OSU, Michigan, some to PSU and get paid. The best (or at least most experienced)OL, LB, TE, RB play in the West where they are top dogs on their respective teams. These guys are mostly developed, not bought, so the revolving door on OL continues at these universities. Thus the running the ball constantly.

I've said it before here and will mention again. For teams with talent levels like MN, Iowa, Wisc, etc, basically the whole west, the only way to win is to load up on STUD(or develop) OL and DL, LB cornfed type players and win ugly.

You will never get 4 and 5 star skill position players(some RBs) on the regular unless you are a helmet/blue blood/cheater school. To win from that DISadvantage point requires a different philosophy, etc to even compete.
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Yes. And therefore, winning for a developmental school like Minnesota is different from winning at, say, Ohio State.
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes. And therefore, winning for a developmental school like Minnesota is different from winning at, say, Ohio State.
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Agreed, and that is why when I see fire PJ stuff or Iowa complaining or Wisc, I just shake my head.

It is a 1:1,000,000 chance to get to say a college playoff at schools like this while the Helmets are like 1:15.

There are realistically only 5-7 programs per year that ever have a chance at playing for a national title. Say 4-5 Blue bloods with talented rosters throughout, 1, surprise power 5 team and one Mid Major/group of 5 who's schedule fell just right.

Until some or any of the mess that is the NCAA or portal, or NIL is fixed, expect it to continue and also understand that a New Year's day bowl at MN or WI is equal to playing in a National title game for someone like Alabama or Oregon.
 



RememberMurray said:
What is the difference between a division being labelled a "mess", and a division that is highly competitive, with multiple teams still in the running?

Maybe exactly the same thing?

The reason I ask: whether we label it competitive and entertaining or we call it a "mess", it will almost certainly go away after this 2023 season. I hope we fans don't find ourselves missing this "mess" next year; because our Gophers may no longer be competing for any kind of title.
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We are going to miss it like crazy unless we change our best. But, I am not at all ready to concede that USC and UCLA come into the league as super heavyweights. Oregon, yes. Washington, maybe.
 

RememberMurray said:
What is the difference between a division being labelled a "mess", and a division that is highly competitive, with multiple teams still in the running?

Maybe exactly the same thing?

The reason I ask: whether we label it competitive and entertaining or we call it a "mess", it will almost certainly go away after this 2023 season. I hope we fans don't find ourselves missing this "mess" next year; because our Gophers may no longer be competing for any kind of title.
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Divisions and, maybe even pods or whatever you call the smaller units, will be back after a short hiatus exactly for the reason you mentioned - the West division is "highly competitive with multiple teams still in the running" even this late in the year and that keeps more fans engaged. There is a reason all major professional sports teams are broken into smaller groups.

The divisionless format was agreed to BEFORE we picked up the four new teams on the west coast. The new West will have more high level teams and so help to balance the power out. In addition, the playoff will make it more likely for good teams in the tougher division to still go to the playoff so less reason to complain. A good Penn State team will still get into a 12 team playoff even if they can't routinely beat Ohio State and Michigan...especially when the Big Ten & SEC change the playoff selection rules to be more to their liking.

If the Big Ten expands to the southeast, I could see Michigan joining the West as a new power team and we could reinitiate our rivalry (annual Minnesota butt kicking) while Ohio State and Penn State stay in the eastern division. Actually, the expanded 12 team playoff makes pods less important because of the expanded playoff field.
 

Go Gophs said:
This trend has been forever. The top guys and for sure the top skill guys have always and still do go to OSU, Michigan, some to PSU and get paid. The best (or at least most experienced)OL, LB, TE, RB play in the West where they are top dogs on their respective teams. These guys are mostly developed, not bought, so the revolving door on OL continues at these universities. Thus the running the ball constantly.

I've said it before here and will mention again. For teams with talent levels like MN, Iowa, Wisc, etc, basically the whole west, the only way to win against your peers and even have the chance to compete against the big boys is to load up on STUD(or develop) OL and DL, LB cornfed type players and win ugly.

You will never get 4 and 5 star skill position players(some RBs) on the regular unless you are a helmet/blue blood/cheater school. To win from that DISadvantage point requires a different philosophy, etc to even compete.
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Maybe what you say is correct, but no less a talent expert than PJ Fleck was totally convinced last Spring and Summer that he had assembled the best group of wide receivers he had ever coached.

He flat out said it and he said we were going to see a much more balanced offense this year. I don't think he was wrong. In fact, agreed with him.

What happened?

CAB just could never get back to his old athleticism with the accumulated injuries and rehabs. He certainly tried but it was not in the cards.

Jackson proved a star last year and is now a premier receiver in the conference, although playing in an offense and with a QB that can't really bring out all his potential. Danny is the only one who lived up to what Fleck expected.

BSF was pre-season All American. Fleck knew that and expected a lot. With five or six games left, there's still time.

Spencer had great experience and past performance. Fleck expected a lot from him. Didn't get it.

Croombs was the next best transfer but still with great credentials. Other than one game of mind-blowing dropsies, he has been solid. But with limited receivers and AK not being as good as Fleck thought, he is also not able to play to his potential in this offense.

Then there was Brockington with a chance to be as good as Jackson with another year development. Lost early for the season.

So we had some great skill position players to go with known talents Tayor and Evans. We can get them to Minnesota.

And AK? My opinion is he is much better than he has shown. Early he came to believe he had to try to get it to Jackson on every throw. Early he learned that BSF might drop it. No CAB and no Spencer (for whatever reasons).

Fleck's plan for the season included multiple talented receivers. No question that AK would have played much better with that offense and everybody contributing.
 

Dakota2 said:
Maybe what you say is correct, but no less a talent expert than PJ Fleck was totally convinced last Spring and Summer that he had assembled the best group of wide receivers he had ever coached.

He flat out said it and he said we were going to see a much more balanced offense this year. I don't think he was wrong. In fact, agreed with him.

What happened?

CAB just could never get back to his old athleticism with the accumulated injuries and rehabs. He certainly tried but it was not in the cards.

Jackson proved a star last year and is now a premier receiver in the conference, although playing in an offense and with a QB that can't really bring out all his potential. Danny is the only one who lived up to what Fleck expected.

BSF was pre-season All American. Fleck knew that and expected a lot. With five or six games left, there's still time.

Spencer had great experience and past performance. Fleck expected a lot from him. Didn't get it.

Croombs was the next best transfer but still with great credentials. Other than one game of mind-blowing dropsies, he has been solid. But with limited receivers and AK not being as good as Fleck thought, he is also not able to play to his potential in this offense.

Then there was Brockington with a chance to be as good as Jackson with another year development. Lost early for the season.

So we had some great skill position players to go with known talents Tayor and Evans. We can get them to Minnesota.

And AK? My opinion is he is much better than he has shown. Early he came to believe he had to try to get it to Jackson on every throw. Early he learned that BSF might drop it. No CAB and no Spencer (for whatever reasons).

Fleck's plan for the season included multiple talented receivers. No question that AK would have played much better with that offense and everybody contributing.
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Take that whole group and please tell me which ones had offers to Michigan, OSU, Penn State or any other schools in the SEC and you will get your answer.
He might have said that about his talent, but he has to. And just because he says it is his best, it still doesn't mean it's the best as compared to other teams across the top 25. Flat out these guys weren't even thought of by those types of programs. Other than maybe 1-2 of them.

Here is the point I am trying to make. Think of it this way. One team has a hat full of quarters and a few pennies sprinkled in. The other has a hat 3/4 full of pennies with a few quarters sprinkled in.

Draw 11 out of each hat. Which hat is going to produce more money more often? Yes, at random there will come a time when the hat with less quarters might someday be close to even or even more money than the other, but 95% of the time that won't be the case.
 



Go Gophs said:
Take that whole group and please tell me which ones had offers to Michigan, OSU, Penn State or any other schools in the SEC and you will get your answer.
He might have said that about his talent, but he has to. And just because he says it is his best, it still doesn't mean it's the best as compared to other teams across the top 25. Flat out these guys weren't even thought of by those types of programs. Other than maybe 1-2 of them.

Here is the point I am trying to make. Think of it this way. One team has a hat full of quarters and a few pennies sprinkled in. The other has a hat 3/4 full of pennies with a few quarters sprinkled in.

Draw 11 out of each hat. Which hat is going to produce more money more often? Yes, at random there will come a time when the hat with less quarters might someday be close to even or even more money than the other, but 95% of the time that won't be the case.
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What kind of hat?
 

Go Gophs said:
OK, great you named a handful. Now compare that to the rosters at OSU, Mich, and PSU. Because the rest of the east is no better than the west.

Yes, there are some that come here, but it is a tiny percentage when compared to the helmets. Also, even if they come to one of these types of schools that litter the West, nowadays they can get poached after they developed by the big boys or whoever can pony up anywhere in the nation.

Here's an example of that but it is a player from the East who played on another also-ran. The QB from Indiana - Penix.

Edit, I would also argue that the coaching is MUCH better in the West than it is in the East. How hard is it for whoever Ohio State has as their coach to win most of their games each year? They are playing with a stacked deck, more resources, money, fans, etc. They can also get away with murder at their respective Universities as well as long as the team is winning.
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I'll say it again. PJ, Bert, and Ferenz are all better football coaches than Ryan Day.
 

Go Gophs said:
Take that whole group and please tell me which ones had offers to Michigan, OSU, Penn State or any other schools in the SEC and you will get your answer.
He might have said that about his talent, but he has to. And just because he says it is his best, it still doesn't mean it's the best as compared to other teams across the top 25. Flat out these guys weren't even thought of by those types of programs. Other than maybe 1-2 of them.

Here is the point I am trying to make. Think of it this way. One team has a hat full of quarters and a few pennies sprinkled in. The other has a hat 3/4 full of pennies with a few quarters sprinkled in.

Draw 11 out of each hat. Which hat is going to produce more money more often? Yes, at random there will come a time when the hat with less quarters might someday be close to even or even more money than the other, but 95% of the time that won't be the case.
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He didn't say we would have a receiving corps better than Ohio State. He said it would be the best he had ever coached. Who knows better if that is true? You or him?

I don't care who didn't recruit Johnson, Bateman, CAB, or Jackson. They were wrong, we were right.
 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
If Northwestern wins out (they still play Iowa and Wisconsin) and Nebraska loses twice (also play Iowa and Wisconsin), Northwestern would win the West, right? Wasn't it their pattern to win the West every two years? I think this would just be a one year delay off that cycle. Wouldn't that be the most Westy things of them all?
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Minnesota would need to lose another game
 

Nebraska is 5-1 with their new QB. They have quietly become the favorite to win the West.
 

Goldmember said:
Nebraska is 5-1 with their new QB. They have quietly become the favorite to win the West.
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The favorite by who or what?
Not Vegas?
Not analytics models?


They do have a chance.
 

Some guy said:
The favorite by who or what?
Not Vegas?
Not analytics models?


They do have a chance.
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Eh, probably just me.
I think Nebraska is playing better lately, but beating Wisconsin and Iowa in back is probably statistically unlikely.
 

Goldmember said:
Eh, probably just me.
I think Nebraska is playing better lately, but beating Wisconsin and Iowa in back is probably statistically unlikely.
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Unlikely, but entirely possible.
 

Dakota2 said:
Not a mess at all, just good competition. This is the reason TV execs will not succeed in creating a super conference with the top teams only.

Ryan Day, Nick Sabin, and Kirby Smart are not going to accept a situation where they are fighting to win the conference with a 7-5 record.

The West is great with four teams having some kind of chance with four to play. PJ, Bert, and Ferentz are better coaches than Ryan Day.

Too bad it’s the last year for the West
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There is not a good team in the West. It is a mess.
 




Good thing Iowa and Wisconsin have fallen back to the pack closing the gap…..
 

So setting my general desire to see Iowa lose, do we cheer for Iowa or NU this weekend? Iowa has one less loss, but NU would hold the tiebreaker over us.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
So setting my general desire to see Iowa lose, do we cheer for Iowa or NU this weekend? Iowa has one less loss, but NU would hold the tiebreaker over us.
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short version, purdue and ill are already eliminated effectively. for those left (which we need them all to lose once, unless we beat OSU somehow)

MN: Ill, Pur, OSU, WI
IA: NW, RU, Ill, Neb
NE: MSU, MD, WI, IA
WI: IU, NW, NE, MN
NW: IA, WI, Pur, Ill

So given that, and given we still play WI of those listed, I'd cheer for NW this weekend given I think they'll lose to WI and we can take WI out to end the year for all the marbles. Plus cheering for iowa is always gross.

Based on ESPN projections, NW is still projected to lose out. MN to go 2-2, IA to win out, NE to go 1-3, and WI to win out.
 

upnorthkid said:
short version, purdue and ill are already eliminated effectively. for those left (which we need them all to lose once, unless we beat OSU somehow)

MN: Ill, Pur, OSU, WI
IA: NW, RU, Ill, Neb
NE: MSU, MD, WI, IA
WI: IU, NW, NE, MN
NW: IA, WI, Pur, Ill

So given that, and given we still play WI of those listed, I'd cheer for NW this weekend given I think they'll lose to WI and we can take WI out to end the year for all the marbles. Plus cheering for iowa is always gross.

Based on ESPN projections, NW is still projected to lose out. MN to go 2-2, IA to win out, NE to go 1-3, and WI to win out.
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Even an easier way to think about it

Is Iowa or Wisconsin playing?
Does them winning create a clear advantage for Mn?

If the answer to question 2 isn’t an unquestionable yes, you cheer against Iowa and Wisconsin.
 

Go Gophs said:
OK, great you named a handful. Now compare that to the rosters at OSU, Mich, and PSU. Because the rest of the east is no better than the west.

Yes, there are some that come here, but it is a tiny percentage when compared to the helmets. Also, even if they come to one of these types of schools that litter the West, nowadays they can get poached after they developed by the big boys or whoever can pony up anywhere in the nation.

Here's an example of that but it is a player from the East who played on another also-ran. The QB from Indiana - Penix.

Edit, I would also argue that the coaching is MUCH better in the West than it is in the East. How hard is it for whoever Ohio State has as their coach to win most of their games each year? They are playing with a stacked deck, more resources, money, fans, etc. They can also get away with murder at their respective Universities as well as long as the team is winning.
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The only star skill position player that ran from their team from either Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa was Bucky Irving and he left because he didn't want to be second to Ibrahim and got $$$ from Oregon. Who wouldn't leave in those circumstances? Iowa actually brought in "star" skilled position players from helmet schools, Wisconsin was able to bring in one of the most sought after transfer QBs this past offseason, and Nebraska has also been able to get highly rank skill position players to come to their school as well. On paper the top schools in the West should have very good offenses yet out of the big 4 only Wisconsin is ranked inside the top 100 scoring offenses in the NCAA and they're only 86th. At some point this does have to fall on coaching and failure to develop and use players.
 

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