Big Ten Mess....I mean West

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MNVCGUY

MNVCGUY

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So in an effort to talk about something other than invalid fair catch signals let's take a look at the West as it stands today.

Wisconsin - 3-1
Iowa - 3-2
Minnesota - 2-2
Nebraska - 2-2
Northwestern - 1-3
Purdue - 1-3
Illinois 1-4

When I looked at the West before I felt 6-3 could win it and I still feel that way after this past weekend. Wisconsin and Minnesota both have Ohio State left so good chance that Sconnie has a second conference loss for sure and we have a third coming up. If we use 4 loses as the elimination point then Purdue who plays Michigan still and Illinois are essentially eliminated. Iowa has a very manageable remaining 4 games so if they can get anything at all from their offense they can win all 4 and take the West.

As it stands today is seems likely that either Iowa or Wisconsin is going to come out on top in the sweepstake to see who gets to get destroyed in Indy. But anything could happen as once you get past the top 3 in the East you have a big collection of mediocre teams where anyone can beat anyone.
 

I agree. Gophers could take the west but many things would have to go right.
 

It'd be kind of cool to win the West in the final year of divisional play, but beyond that, I won't be sad to see this subpar and anachronistic division go away.

Purdue is really the only team in this division that ever shows any form of offensive innovation, while the rest seem frozen in a style of offensive football drawn straight out of the 1960's.

Maybe (hopefully) it can be a positive for us and others to no longer have the crutch of playing in the B10 West, as being exposed to modern offenses far more regularly might compel us to modernize in kind. Sort of drag us kicking and screaming into the 21st century...
 

MNVCGUY said:
So in an effort to talk about something other than invalid fair catch signals let's take a look at the West as it stands today.

Wisconsin - 3-1
Iowa - 3-2
Minnesota - 2-2
Nebraska - 2-2
Northwestern - 1-3
Purdue - 1-3
Illinois 1-4

When I looked at the West before I felt 6-3 could win it and I still feel that way after this past weekend. Wisconsin and Minnesota both have Ohio State left so good chance that Sconnie has a second conference loss for sure and we have a third coming up. If we use 4 loses as the elimination point then Purdue who plays Michigan still and Illinois are essentially eliminated. Iowa has a very manageable remaining 4 games so if they can get anything at all from their offense they can win all 4 and take the West.

As it stands today is seems likely that either Iowa or Wisconsin is going to come out on top in the sweepstake to see who gets to get destroyed in Indy. But anything could happen as once you get past the top 3 in the East you have a big collection of mediocre teams where anyone can beat anyone.
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If we win out except for OSU, and Wisconsin loses to OSU, then Iowa only needs one more loss for us to win the West by tie-breaker. Iowa with its pathetic, hopeless offense will loss another B1G game somewhere along the way--it is simply too depleted and incompetent on offense. So, I believe we control our own destiny. Of course, we have controlled our own destiny in the past under PJ and have always face-planted at a critical juncture. Today I believe that if our defense is actually rounding into shape, finding its identity with the Frosh LBs, and if Athan and his receivers can somehow find communication and compatability on the same plain of existence (rather than in parallel but unconnected universes), we should have a good chance.

At this point, I had expected we would have 2 B1G losses: Michigan and Iowa. The expected Iowa loss could be a fatal problem at season's end if a tie-breaker were involved. In kind of a perverse benefit to this weird season, we have 2 B1G losses (as I expected), but by trading NW for Iowa we enhanced our chances of winning the West if things go to a tie breaker. I'm OK with that. Now win out except for OSU.
 

Seany said:
It'd be kind of cool to win the West in the final year of divisional play, but beyond that, I won't be sad to see this subpar and anachronistic division go away.

Purdue is really the only team in this division that ever shows any form of offensive innovation, while the rest seem frozen in a style of offensive football drawn straight out of the 1960's.

Maybe (hopefully) it can be a positive for us and others to no longer have the crutch of playing in the B10 West, as being exposed to modern offenses far more regularly might compel us to modernize in kind. Sort of drag us kicking and screaming into the 21st century...
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Agree. It would be fun to see the Gophers play 21st Century football.
 



Seany said:
I can only look at 2019 and dream. What if that style of offense were a normal for us?
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And 2019 was 45% pass, 55% run. But we had 31 passing TDs and 3300 passing yards to go along with a stellar running game. That combo got us ranked 10th in the nation at season's end. And our current offensive strategy, 2020 to present--which admittedly wins us some games--is why we haven't finished ranked since 2019.
 

Just need to focus on winning the next three. All very winnable.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
If we win out except for OSU, and Wisconsin loses to OSU, then Iowa only needs one more loss for us to win the West by tie-breaker. Iowa with its pathetic, hopeless offense will loss another B1G game somewhere along the way--it is simply too depleted and incompetent on offense. So, I believe we control our own destiny. Of course, we have controlled our own destiny in the past under PJ and have always face-planted at a critical juncture. Today I believe that if our defense is actually rounding into shape, finding its identity with the Frosh LBs, and if Athan and his receivers can somehow find communication and compatability on the same plain of existence (rather than in parallel but unconnected universes), we should have a good chance.
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My concern is that our offense might not be a great deal better than Iowa's, and we need to hope Darius Taylor and Zach Evans hold up the rest of the season. Although maybe Iowa's offense becomes exceptionally awful going the rest of the season with a backup QB and TE's. Rutgers and Nebraska have solid defenses and could be tougher opponents for Iowa than any of Michigan State, Illinois, or Purdue will be for us, and if Iowa continues to struggle to make anything happen on offense, maybe they drop another 10-6 sort of rock fight game.
 



MNVCGUY said:
So in an effort to talk about something other than invalid fair catch signals let's take a look at the West as it stands today.

Wisconsin - 3-1
Iowa - 3-2
Minnesota - 2-2
Nebraska - 2-2
Northwestern - 1-3
Purdue - 1-3
Illinois 1-4

When I looked at the West before I felt 6-3 could win it and I still feel that way after this past weekend. Wisconsin and Minnesota both have Ohio State left so good chance that Sconnie has a second conference loss for sure and we have a third coming up. If we use 4 loses as the elimination point then Purdue who plays Michigan still and Illinois are essentially eliminated. Iowa has a very manageable remaining 4 games so if they can get anything at all from their offense they can win all 4 and take the West.

As it stands today is seems likely that either Iowa or Wisconsin is going to come out on top in the sweepstake to see who gets to get destroyed in Indy. But anything could happen as once you get past the top 3 in the East you have a big collection of mediocre teams where anyone can beat anyone.
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Don’t see how you figure Wisconsin in the West title mix with losses to OSU and Minnesota giving us the tie breaker. For sure Iowa has to take a loss against one of NW, Nebraska, or Rutgers.
 


Gophergrandpa said:
And 2019 was 45% pass, 55% run. But we had 31 passing TDs and 3300 passing yards to go along with a stellar running game. That combo got us ranked 10th in the nation at season's end. And our current offensive strategy, 2020 to present--which admittedly wins us some games--is why we haven't finished ranked since 2019.
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Correct
It’s not about number of passes. More about yards per attempt/completion IMO
 




Cayman said:
My concern is that our offense might not be a great deal better than Iowa's, and we need to hope Darius Taylor and Zach Evans hold up the rest of the season. Although maybe Iowa's offense becomes exceptionally awful going the rest of the season with a backup QB and TE's. Rutgers and Nebraska have solid defenses and could be tougher opponents for Iowa than any of Michigan State, Illinois, or Purdue will be for us, and if Iowa continues to struggle to make anything happen on offense, maybe they drop another 10-6 sort of rock fight game.
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Iowa will lose one or two more. either or both of Rutger and Nebraska will beat them. Solid defense and an offense that can score a dozen points will beat Iowa. We would have held Iowa to 3 or 6 if it weren’t for a sudden plague of consecutive penalties on our D.
 

Some guy said:
Correct
It’s not about number of passes. More about yards per attempt/completion IMO
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Right. We threw downfield but not always deep downfield. KC’s scheme, and three very good WRs, produced significant YAC. It was, in retrospect, a very balanced offense. Compiled with a good defense, we got 11 wins and should have gotten 12 (Iowa).
 

There is a story to be written about why offensive skill position players will not come to play in the West. The trend in the last five years is astonishing. The decline in talent is precipitous and division wide.
 

I have my ticket to the Minnesota-Wisconsin regular season finale at Minnesota. For a while I thought about dumping it but now it could be a crazy ending.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
And 2019 was 45% pass, 55% run. But we had 31 passing TDs and 3300 passing yards to go along with a stellar running game. That combo got us ranked 10th in the nation at season's end. And our current offensive strategy, 2020 to present--which admittedly wins us some games--is why we haven't finished ranked since 2019.
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It's not what plays you run -- it's how well you execute the plays you run. On defense it's how well you pay attention.
 
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Governor Sibley said:
There is a story to be written about why offensive skill position players will not come to play in the West. The trend in the last five years is astonishing. The decline in talent is precipitous and division wide.
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If you look at the current top 25 the midwest is very lightly represented. So I think you could expand it to why can't schools in the midwest attract high level talent?

The midwest is made up of Ill, IN, IA, KN, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD and WI. Of those 10 states there are only 4 teams in the current AP top 25 and 3 of the 4 are helmet schools. Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Missouri.

College football has pretty much forgotten about the Midwest at this point as the talent is along the coasts and in the South.
 

MO is not the midwest any more than Kentucky is. Kansas two-letter acronym is KS.
 

The last season for the West/East divisions.

Starting next year, won't it be thrilling to compete for sixth place every season? Maybe once in a blue moon the Gophers will finish fifth... or even fourth!

Yuck.
 

RememberMurray said:
The last season for the West/East divisions.

Starting next year, won't it be thrilling to compete for sixth place every season? Maybe once in a blue moon the Gophers will finish fifth... or even fourth!

Yuck.
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Kind of the same issue as MN high school football.
The system is killing the ability to celebrate middle levels of success.

High school football - you make the final four at big stadium or you don’t.
I wish they’d go 9 game schedule with just top 32 in each class making playoffs so teams could celebrate a playoff birth as a mid level of success.


College - old system
Make a bowl
Win a bowl
Win a conference
Win a national title

Current system
Make a bowl
Win a bowl
Win a division
Win a conference
Make a playoff
Win a playoff game
Win a national title

Future system
Make a playoff
Win a playoff game
Win a national title

Because bowls are going to die. As are the idea of conference championships since there can be 4 way ties where no one played each other


We need more benchmarks for success, not fewer
 

Some guy said:
Kind of the same issue as MN high school football.
The system is killing the ability to celebrate middle levels of success.

High school football - you make the final four at big stadium or you don’t.
I wish they’d go 9 game schedule with just top 32 in each class making playoffs so teams could celebrate a playoff birth as a mid level of success.


College - old system
Make a bowl
Win a bowl
Win a conference
Win a national title

Current system
Make a bowl
Win a bowl
Win a division
Win a conference
Make a playoff
Win a playoff game
Win a national title

Future system
Make a playoff
Win a playoff game
Win a national title

Because bowls are going to die. As are the idea of conference championships since there can be 4 way ties where no one played each other


We need more benchmarks for success, not fewer
Click to expand...

Especially if you are trying hard to build up a program, like Fleck and Co. at Minnesota.

The mentality that there are two, and only two, levels of success — one champion, and everyone else losers — is toxic, and detrimental.
 

Dakota2 said:
Don’t see how you figure Wisconsin in the West title mix with losses to OSU and Minnesota giving us the tie breaker. For sure Iowa has to take a loss against one of NW, Nebraska, or Rutgers.
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Here is my thinking (could be missing something!) on Wisconsin et al.: Wisconsin is currently 3-1 in B1G play with 5 games remaining. In scenario in which Gophers win out except for OSU (i.e., we beat Badgers in final season game), this means the Badgers beat Indiana, Northwestern and Nebraska and lose to OSU and Gophers, resulting in a final B1G record of 6-3. Also in this scenario, the Gophers, who currently sit at 2-2 in the B1G with five games remaining, beat Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin, and lose to OSU, resulting in a final B1G record of 6-3, tied with Wisconsin—but we have the tie-breaker, having beaten Wisconsin.

Iowa is nominally in the driver’s seat, sitting at 3-2 in the B1G with only four games remaining: Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois and Nebraska. If Iowa wins three and losses one of the remaining, its final B1G record will be 6-3, tied with us and Wisconsin (in this scenario), but we win, having the tie-breaker over Iowa. I personally think Iowa’s offense is so broken that it will lose at least two of its remaining four games, which, in this Gophers-win-out scenario, would drop Iowa out of contention, leaving the West to Wisconsin and Minnesota.

(BTW, I have ignored Nebraska, but it sits at 2-2 in the B1G with 5 games left. In my scenario above, if Nebraska wins all five of its games, it would win the West at 7-2. If Nebraska wins 4 and losses one, it finishes 6-3, but we hold the tie-breaker over Nebraska as well. If Nebraska goes 3-2 in its final games, it is probably out of contention. This is the Wild West at the moment!)
 
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as others have said, barring a MN upset of OSU, Gophers have to go 4-1. WI has to lose to OSU and MN.

and then it comes down to this: IA has to lose at least one of its remaining 4 games. Yes, IA has a lot of problems on offense, but they still have a very good defense and very good special teams.

Of those games, I would give Rutgers the best chance of beating IA, followed by Illinois. for Neb to beat IA, it would have to be an ugly 12-10 type of game. and I'm not going to count on NW - but that one is being played at Wrigley Field, so something weird could happen.

and if we want to really go into reckless speculation:

Gophers win the West on a tie-breaker. scheduled to play Michigan in conference title game. But the B1G rules Michigan ineligible due to sign-stealing scandal - resulting in MN winning conference title by default. hoist the banner. and ER's in IA admit thousands of fans with severe head injuries from beating their heads against a wall or other solid object.
 

Bowls won’t die. They put money in peoples pockets.

Gives fans an excuse to travel. Already are largely exhibition games, that won’t change. Buy flights, hotel rooms, bars/restaurants.

Fills TV slots with something that gets ratings.

They ain’t dying
 



short ornery norwegian said:
But the B1G rules Michigan ineligible due to sign-stealing scandal - resulting in MN winning conference title by default.
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They would slot in another team like they did in the leaders and legends era. I think wisconsin came in 3rd in whichever one, but went to the B10 CG because the teams in front of them were ineligible.
 

Would be interesting to look at the total high school participation report for those regions of the country, and number of high level recruits that come out of them. Ohio produces a lot.
 

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