Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

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Otis said:
So we have to win out to get to the magic 17 win mark prior to the B1G tournament.

Northwestern - Injuries alone make this a hard game to predict. A full strength squad would have this in the bag one would think, but who knows this year. I expect a closely fought victory. 55% chance of winning.

@ Nebraska - Um, it's a road game. But, it is Nebraska! Maybe the Gophers get a 90% healed Robbins for this game and pass him the ball inside and get 40 FT attempts like they should. this is a 50-50 game here.

@ Penn State - Nothing is ever easy in Happy Valley. Even when PSU really really stinks we struggle to win at Happy Valley. I give us a 37.5% chance of stealing victory from the clutches of defeat in this one. In other words, if we win, it won't be pretty.

Rutgers - Let's face it. Rutgers plays hard Pat Riley Knicks type basketball. The Gophers try to play Loyola Marymount Paul Westhead type basketball without the shooting ability. Which means while the Gophers almost certainly will NOT WIN this game. They most likely will not get blown out. Look for a long boring game where the Gophers never hold a lead except for maybe in the early minutes and never quite put together a run to get control and reclaim control of the game. 15% chance of victory.

16-11 at best 15-12 most likely and 14-13 staring the Gophers in the mirror.

Weakling Wednesday here we come!
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Good rundown! I'd say 15-12 is most likely as well.

Rutgers was impressive last night in coming back to throttle Indiana. With 9:42 left in the first half, Rutgers was down 23-8 but they outscored Indiana 66-40 for the rest of the game. Rutgers has two games left (Nebraska and Minnesota) and they finish with a winning conference record for two consecutive years if they win both of them.

Of course, even at 15-12, we could still avoid Weakling Wednesday. Indiana is now 7-9 with Mich (home), MSU (road), and Purdue (road) left. If they lose all three and we win two, we would finish 8-12 to their 7-12. MSU has two games with Michigan, Ohio State (home), Maryland (road), and Indiana (home) left. If they go 2-3 in those, they finish 8-12 and I assume we would have the tie breaker by having defeated them in the lone contest. If those things happen, we would finish 9th and probably play either Maryland or Rutgers again for the 3rd time. If we do manage to win 3 games, we're pretty likely to avoid Weakling Wednesday.

Penn State also has an outside chance to avoid Weakling Wednesday. They have Purdue (home), Minnesota (home), and Maryland (away) remaining. If they swept all three, they also would have an 8-12 conference record and the tie breaker over us.
 

upnorthkid said:
I know this, but it still isn't a 50/50. If they lose that one, Coyle should fire Pitino on the spot.
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It would suck to lose at Nebraska, but that game closer to 50/50 than you think.

Have you been paying attention? Nebraska has played better lately and we have not.

Huskers won at Penn State.
Huskers took Illinois and Penn State to overtime in Lincoln.
Huskers gave Wisconsin a good battle in Lincoln.
Huskers played Maryland tough in both games there.
Huskers were leading Purdue with ten minutes left before folding late.

We have 2-6 since we beat Michigan Michigan game on Jan. 16
We have been blown out in four of those six losses.
We have our best perimeter defender out.
We have our best interior defender playing injured.
We have not won a road game this year.

KenPom currently projects MN-NEB game as a 4-pt Gopher win. Not exactly the easy win everyone thinks it should be.
 

tjgopher said:
It would suck to lose at Nebraska, but that game closer to 50/50 than you think.

Have you been paying attention? Nebraska has played better lately and we have not.

Huskers won at Penn State.
Huskers took Illinois and Penn State to overtime in Lincoln.
Huskers gave Wisconsin a good battle in Lincoln.
Huskers played Maryland tough in both games there.
Huskers were leading Purdue with ten minutes left before folding late.

We have 2-6 since we beat Michigan Michigan game on Jan. 16
We have been blown out in four of those six losses.
We have our best perimeter defender out.
We have our best interior defender playing injured.
We have not won a road game this year.

KenPom currently projects MN-NEB game as a 4-pt Gopher win. Not exactly the easy win everyone thinks it should be.
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Again, it should be an absolute blowout and the narrowing of the KenPom scoreline shows exactly how much of a shit show Pitino has made this into. It should not be a 50/50 game based on the roster talent of each team and, if with a healthy (or very close to) Robbins, that is my point
 

upnorthkid said:
Again, it should be an absolute blowout and the narrowing of the KenPom scoreline shows exactly how much of a shit show Pitino has made this into. It should not be a 50/50 game based on the roster talent of each team and, if with a healthy (or very close to) Robbins, that is my point
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Ok. That's different than what you said before. You said "it still isn't a 50/50." Well, in fact, it is close.

What it should be and what it is are two different thing.

It shouldn't be 50/50, fine.

But, it is close to 50/50, that's reality.

That's what I'm pointing out.

Nebraska took Illinois to overtime and had a chance to win the game on the final possession of regulation. We lost by 31 to Illinois. But, sure, we'll just go in and blowout Nebraska.
 
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tmvander said:
Thing is if they make the dance things could happen.

Others have said, and I completely agree, Pitino's style is meant for another conference. If the gophers get in and aren't playing a Big Ten team (which they won't in the first round) I could easily see them winning. Hell, this team is so weird I could see them knocking off a big seed in the second round if the opponent isn't from the Big Ten. They could just as easily get smoked by 20 by a team like St. Bonnie.

Anything is possible but we have to get there first.
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Pitino's "style" is to ride the talents of his best players as long and as hard as he can. The problems with that are: 1) the rest of the league keys on them after their initial success, 2) they get worn down as the season goes on, and 3) the rest of the players haven't been conditioned and developed enough to pick up the slack.

I suspect the team can do better with an out-of-conference opponent because those teams aren't as well practiced in taking away our strengths and taking advantage of our weaknesses. Let's also remember that our two best out-of-conference wins were St. Louis (currently with a 4-4 record in the Atlantic 10) and the lowliest ACC team (Boston College) in overtime and both of those were at home.
 

Beat NW. Lose at Nebraska. Lose at PSU. Lose to Rutgers.

Lose to Nebraska in the 11 v 14 game on Wednesday.

Fire Pitino in a Thursday morning press conference.


Book it dude.
 

cjbfbp said:
Pitino's "style" is to ride the talents of his best players as long and as hard as he can. The problems with that are: 1) the rest of the league keys on them after their initial success, 2) they get worn down as the season goes on, and 3) the rest of the players haven't been conditioned and developed enough to pick up the slack.

I suspect the team can do better with an out-of-conference opponent because those teams aren't as well practiced in taking away our strengths and taking advantage of our weaknesses. Let's also remember that our two best out-of-conference wins were St. Louis (currently with a 4-4 record in the Atlantic 10) and the lowliest ACC team (Boston College) in overtime and both of those were at home.
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I feel like the Gopher's style is to try and run and gun more. The Big Ten teams slow things down. We suck with a half court offense.

Maybe the fact that we aren't playing these teams much throughout the year gives me the perception that we CAN do better against them mostly because we suck so much against the Big Ten teams. Maybe we're just bad all around haha.
 

Back to the thread topic. I'm going to slightly disagree from the group and offer up the idea that 16 total wins is still likely enough to get them in the NCAA Tournament.

The Gophers have enough good wins over quality teams to be a tourney team now. If they go 3-1 and get to 16 wins, that will ensure they have at least one more Quad 1 win and at least one road win. Those two things help. There will be no bubble teams with the quantity of quality wins the Gophers have, and in most cases not even close. The Gophers will have 4 or 5 wins better than many of the bubble teams' best win. So, that's a good thing.

So, why would they NOT make the tourney? Two reasons. The Gophers have two things going against them right now.

1) A Net Ranking of #61
2) An overall record close to .500

The overall Net Ranking is a problem because they haven't play efficiently and have been blown out in too many games. So, that will be a problem that likely won't be fixed in a big way. However, going 3-1 and playing reasonably well and getting to 16 wins would likely push MN Net Ranking closer to 40 than 60. So, that helps. Anything in the 40s will be acceptable for the committee.

Going 3-1 puts them at 16-11 overall heading to Indianapolis. A loss in the BTT first game would put MN at 16-12 for the selection committee. The thing we forget is 16-12 this year, when only playing 28 total games is a lot like 20-12 most years when you have an addition four buy games on the schedule. I believe the Gophers at 16-12 will be enough over .500 to be acceptable by the committee in a year that many teams will be trying to get in with 22 games played or fewer against much less competition.

At the end of the day, the quality of wins, the strength of schedule, especially when compared to the rest of the bubble will be too good to leave a 16-win MN out.
 



tjgopher said:
Not that anyone cares what I think, but I still thinkg 16 wins will be enough to get us in.


Ok. That's different than what you said before. You said "it still isn't a 50/50." Well, in fact, it is close.

What it should be and what it is are two different thing.

It shouldn't be 50/50, fine.

But, it is close to 50/50, that's reality.

That's what I'm pointing out.

Nebraska took Illinois to overtime and had a chance to win the game on the final possession of regulation. We lost by 31 to Illinois. But, sure, we'll just go in and blowout Nebraska.
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my original post said with a healthy Robbins, which is what MplsGopher and I were noting. Again, can't control that Robbins is hurt and that our resultant efficiency has taken a shit (which is going to narrow the KenPom lines, etc) because that's how the metrics work.

From a math standpoint, implied probability of a 4 point spread team winning in basketball is about 65% if you're into that
 

tjgopher said:
Going 3-1 puts them at 16-11 overall heading to Indianapolis. A loss in the BTT first game would put MN at 16-12 for the selection committee.
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The bolded part is the problem, though. If all three of the most likely to win games were at home, it would be a different story.
 

It all depends on players' health, which is going to be day-to-day, game-to-game. The Gophs had the road game against Rutgers almost won, so if they're healthy they should be able to take them. On the other hand, Rutgers is like a lot of teams right now: heading in the opposite direction of the fading Gophers.

If I'm Pitino or the team, I sharpen my focus to no further than what you can see through your windhsield right now. Today it's the Northwestern game, and you take it one possession at a time. Keep focus, and play every possession like it's your last.
 
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tjgopher said:
Back to the thread topic. I'm going to slightly disagree from the group and offer up the idea that 16 total wins is still likely enough to get them in the NCAA Tournament.

The Gophers have enough good wins over quality teams to be a tourney team now. If they go 3-1 and get to 16 wins, that will ensure they have at least one more Quad 1 win and at least one road win. Those two things help. There will be no bubble teams with the quantity of quality wins the Gophers have, and in most cases not even close. The Gophers will have 4 or 5 wins better than many of the bubble teams' best win. So, that's a good thing.

So, why would they NOT make the tourney? Two reasons. The Gophers have two things going against them right now.

1) A Net Ranking of #61
2) An overall record close to .500

The overall Net Ranking is a problem because they haven't play efficiently and have been blown out in too many games. So, that will be a problem that likely won't be fixed in a big way. However, going 3-1 and playing reasonably well and getting to 16 wins would likely push MN Net Ranking closer to 40 than 60. So, that helps. Anything in the 40s will be acceptable for the committee.

Going 3-1 puts them at 16-11 overall heading to Indianapolis. A loss in the BTT first game would put MN at 16-12 for the selection committee. The thing we forget is 16-12 this year, when only playing 28 total games is a lot like 20-12 most years when you have an addition four buy games on the schedule. I believe the Gophers at 16-12 will be enough over .500 to be acceptable by the committee in a year that many teams will be trying to get in with 22 games played or fewer against much less competition.

At the end of the day, the quality of wins, the strength of schedule, especially when compared to the rest of the bubble will be too good to leave a 16-win MN out.
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I'd agree overall with the sentiments you posted here. Something someone who has maybe more experience with this can tell me is how the committee will look at the "trend line" for the team? 3-7 in their last ten (obviously this gets better to 5-5 if we go 3-1 down the stretch). could that be reason that they look less favorably on our previous wins?
 



MplsGopher said:
The bolded part is the problem, though. If all three of the most likely to win games were at home, it would be a different story.
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I'm not sure I follow. There are two road games and two home games left. How could three wins come from home games?
 

upnorthkid said:
From a math standpoint, implied probability of a 4 point spread team winning in basketball is about 65% if you're into that
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True. I'm not sure what the spread will be. KenPom projections are based on a body of work, which would mostly include Gabe and Liam playing at full health. Let's see what the actual spread, which will take into account the injuries, will be.
 

upnorthkid said:
I'd agree overall with the sentiments you posted here. Something someone who has maybe more experience with this can tell me is how the committee will look at the "trend line" for the team? 3-7 in their last ten (obviously this gets better to 5-5 if we go 3-1 down the stretch). could that be reason that they look less favorably on our previous wins?
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They do not use the last ten game feature as heavily as they used to. They want to mostly judge a team based on the overall body of the resume.
 

tmvander said:
I feel like the Gopher's style is to try and run and gun more. The Big Ten teams slow things down. We suck with a half court offense.

Maybe the fact that we aren't playing these teams much throughout the year gives me the perception that we CAN do better against them mostly because we suck so much against the Big Ten teams. Maybe we're just bad all around haha.
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I think Pitino understands by now that this is a tough half-court defensive league but his teams feature too little ball and player movement and too much reliance on ball dominant guards and a center (whenever he has a good one).

He also perennially lacks enough good shooters. You can probably name his best from memory. In his 8 years he has had only the following players who have finished in the league top 10 in EITHER True Shooting Percentage or Effective Field Goal Percentage: Deandre Methieu and Austin Hollins (2014), Mo Walker (2015), Joey King (2016), and Oturo and Carr (2020). In contrast, Fran McCaffrey has had at least one in all of the 8 years of Pitino's tenure and frequently two or three in a single year.
 

tjgopher said:
They do not use the last ten game feature as heavily as they used to. They want to mostly judge a team based on the overall body of the resume.
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true in a typical season. But I'll be curious as to how that holds in the setting of lack of OOC games this year. hopefully the team gives them something to consider starting tonight.
 

tjgopher said:
I'm not sure I follow. There are two road games and two home games left. How could three wins come from home games?
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That's why I said if. IE, if NW, Neb, and PSU were all home games, then 3-1 could be realistic.
 


tjgopher said:
So you created a problem that literally can't exist? Interesting approach.
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You said 3-1 is the prerequisite. I'm saying that's unlikely because the next three aren't all home games. Wasn't that obvious? I further commented that, if they were, then maybe 3-1 would be possible.

I don't see the issue.
 

MplsGopher said:
You said 3-1 is the prerequisite. I'm saying that's unlikely because the next three aren't all home games. Wasn't that obvious? I further commented that, if they were, then maybe 3-1 would be possible.

I don't see the issue.
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I took what you said to mean if they went 3-1 and all the wins were at home, it would be a different story because they wouldn't have a road win. Totally misunderstood what you were trying to say. So, no it wasn't obvious. But, I got it now.

Yeah, 100% going 3-1 is a problem. Maybe even unlikely.

I was merely suggesting if they do go 3-1, I believe that would be enough to get them in the tournament. Most seem to disagree with that.
 


MplsGopher said:
I'm fine with that, even though losing Wed would look awful.
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If they go 3-1, they almost certainly would NOT be playing on Wednesday.

And, if we miss Wednesday, we would likely be a #8, #9, or #10 seed. All of those seeds would have an almost guaranteed Quad 1 opening game in the BTT. So, a loss would not be devastating.
 
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cjbfbp said:
Pitino's "style" is to ride the talents of his best players as long and as hard as he can. The problems with that are: 1) the rest of the league keys on them after their initial success, 2) they get worn down as the season goes on, and 3) the rest of the players haven't been conditioned and developed enough to pick up the slack.

I suspect the team can do better with an out-of-conference opponent because those teams aren't as well practiced in taking away our strengths and taking advantage of our weaknesses. Let's also remember that our two best out-of-conference wins were St. Louis (currently with a 4-4 record in the Atlantic 10) and the lowliest ACC team (Boston College) in overtime and both of those were at home.
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THIS
Totally summarizes IMO as well, exactly how Pitino 'coaches'. He'll ride his main guys until they just have nothing left in the tank AND/OR the other team has taken them away. His 'coaching style' once confronted with that in game; is to continue with the same hence the reason, again IMO, why the deficits end as double digit defeats.

If we can see this; the players see this as well and I can't imagine how this effects these guys mentally, even more so for the guys riding the pine. The 2nd half against Illinois, the guys without actually doing so, put up the white flag.

Let's see how that finish translates into their overall stretch run finish.
 

MplsGopher said:
That's why I said if. IE, if NW, Neb, and PSU were all home games, then 3-1 could be realistic.
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It's not impossible we could win a road game. A lot has been said about the Gophers' road futility but Nebraska and Northwestern have only 1 each in conference. If they can win a road game, I still have some hope. Penn State also only has one conference road win (against Nebraska). Penn State is only 4-3 at home in conference (including a loss to Nebraska) so that one isn't completely beyond the realm of possibility.
 

DanvilleGopher said:
THIS
Totally summarizes IMO as well, exactly how Pitino 'coaches'. He'll ride his main guys until they just have nothing left in the tank AND/OR the other team has taken them away. His 'coaching style' once confronted with that in game; is to continue with the same hence the reason, again IMO, why the deficits end as double digit defeats.

If we can see this; the players see this as well and I can't imagine how this effects these guys mentally, even more so for the guys riding the pine. The 2nd half against Illinois, the guys without actually doing so, put up the white flag.

Let's see how that finish translates into their overall stretch run finish.
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Yes, there's a small part of me that still hopes with the injuries, his back to the wall, the small number of games left in the seasonl that he might try to gamble a little and do something different but he's been a pretty inflexible coach throughout his tenure here.
 

tjgopher said:
At the end of the day, the quality of wins, the strength of schedule, especially when compared to the rest of the bubble will be too good to leave a 16-win MN out.
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That sounds like a strong prediction if they end the regular season 16-11. However, if they do that, they will have achieved 16 wins at the end of the regular season by virtue of playing three of last four against teams with overall losing records. If they lose the first game of the Big Ten tournament to Maryland, Indiana, or Rutgers that won't advance their cause. The magnitude of their losses (9 double digit losses) is as impressive as their quality wins and there are more of them.
 

upnorthkid said:
If Robbins is anything more than 70% healthy, there is no way in hell that that game is a 50/50
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Do you even pay attention to the Gopher road performances?

Robbins could show up in a Super Suit and be totally healthy and it still would be 50/50! Here are just a few reasons:

1. No guarantee Robbins will be fed the ball.
2. Guards will give him the ball, but in poor position.
3. Umm, poor shooting night might happen.
4. No love from the refs.
5. Robbins may get in early foul trouble

Face it, there is almost a guarantee that #1 happens for a good 75% of the game with zero negative coaching effect on Carr from Ritchie. There haven't been any games so far where it HASN'T happened!
 

Otis said:
Do you even pay attention to the Gopher road performances?

Robbins could show up in a Super Suit and be totally healthy and it still would be 50/50! Here are just a few reasons:

1. No guarantee Robbins will be fed the ball.
2. Guards will give him the ball, but in poor position.
3. Umm, poor shooting night might happen.
4. No love from the refs.
5. Robbins may get in early foul trouble

Face it, there is almost a guarantee that #1 happens for a good 75% of the game with zero negative coaching effect on Carr from Ritchie. There haven't been any games so far where it HASN'T happened!
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Liam played for 14 minutes the first time they played but contributed 7 points and 8 boards plus 3 blocks. Nebraska has legitimately zero players who can match up with him when healthy. This would be like our OOC games in terms of matchups for him. Yes I watch the games. Do you? CBB is about matchups and Nebraska doesn't matchup well against us when healthy. We didn't feed him the ball that game either and shot 22% from 3 and won by 18. If Liam isn't healthy, yeah it's a 50/50 game but that wasn't the point of the post
 

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