Are the Gophers on the Bubble with 8 B1G wins plus 2 in the BTT?

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I thought we beat Southern Illinois in the first round 74-60 in '94. Then lost to Corliss and the Hogs in the 2nd round. I was 12 at the time so I could be off.
 

In 94 we beat s. Illinois then lost to louisville
 

It hurts that the BIG sucks monkey balls this year. On a year where you would have 4-5 teams in the top 25 RPI maybe an 8-10 and a couple of wins in the BTN tourney might get you in.
 

One win closer.

To get to 8-10:
- Beat Northwestern and Penn State at home
- Win one of @Indiana, @Wisconsin, @Michigan State, Wisconsin
 




thesanfordman said:
One win closer.

To get to 8-10:
- Beat Northwestern and Penn State at home
- Win one of @Indiana, @Wisconsin, @Michigan State, Wisconsin
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Sorry, but 8-10 really can't be the goal. Nothing short of a BTT championship game loss would get us in at 8-10. I still think 11 total B1G wins is the #. 9-9 with two BTT wins is probably the most realistic path to 11.
 

I think 10 big ten wins and one win in big ten tourney will get us in.
 



JoshuaT81 said:
I think 10 big ten wins and one win in big ten tourney will get us in.
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So we're going 5-1 the last 6? I'll take it, but I don't share your optimism. Would require beating Wiscy at home and winning 2 of 3 road games @ IU, @Wiscy and @MSU.
 

howeda7 said:
Sorry, but 8-10 really can't be the goal. Nothing short of a BTT championship game loss would get us in at 8-10. I still think 11 total B1G wins is the #. 9-9 with two BTT wins is probably the most realistic path to 11.
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Do you understand what it will take to get to 8-10 in the B1G? Beating NW and PSU improves our RPI rating, just playing Wisconsin 2 times improves our RPI. Even playing MSU and Indy on the road, whether we win or lose, improves our RPI. Winning any of those other 4 games outside of NW/PSU improves our RPI even more. Winning 2 games in the BTT will do nothing but improve our RPI and even losing our 2nd or 3rd game will probably improve our RPI.

So don't be so negative. Nothing wrong with trying to be realistic, but no reason to totally give up hope minus winning out.



Well, there is the Fantasy dream goal, beat PSU and NW, beat MSU and Indy on the road and Wisky at home, finish 10-8, then win 3 in the BTT, get a Top 7 seed in the Big Dance. And then there is the realistic goal, beat PSU and NW and one game other than that, win 2 in the BTT and pray no other team has a better resume.
 

They would need to win three in the BTT tournament and lose to finish 11-11 if they go in at 8-10.
 

howeda7 said:
So we're going 5-1 the last 6? I'll take it, but I don't share your optimism. Would require beating Wiscy at home and winning 2 of 3 road games @ IU, @Wiscy and @MSU.
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I
I am not saying we wi get 10 wins....just saying in my previous post that we would get in for sure with no sweating if we had 10 and one win in big 10 tourney..
.that is all my opinion though
 



Beat NW and Penn St.

Win at Michigan State who is beatable this year.

Hope for either a win at Indiana, or half the Wisconsin team gets suspended (Kamisky and Decker).
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Do you understand what it will take to get to 8-10 in the B1G? Beating NW and PSU improves our RPI rating, just playing Wisconsin 2 times improves our RPI. Even playing MSU and Indy on the road, whether we win or lose, improves our RPI. Winning any of those other 4 games outside of NW/PSU improves our RPI even more. Winning 2 games in the BTT will do nothing but improve our RPI and even losing our 2nd or 3rd game will probably improve our RPI.

So don't be so negative. Nothing wrong with trying to be realistic, but no reason to totally give up hope minus winning out.



Well, there is the Fantasy dream goal, beat PSU and NW, beat MSU and Indy on the road and Wisky at home, finish 10-8, then win 3 in the BTT, get a Top 7 seed in the Big Dance. And then there is the realistic goal, beat PSU and NW and one game other than that, win 2 in the BTT and pray no other team has a better resume.
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I understand all that. But SS already listed the # of teams in recent history to get in with losing conference records. It's unlikely. We were 8-10 last year and our resume and the B1G as a whole are both weaker.

The one advantage of 8-10 is we may avoid the 8-9 line and getting Wiscy in the BTT quarterfinals. Ideally, I want be the #7 or #10 seed.
 


thesanfordman said:
Lol I think we all do bud. The reason I started this thread is to generate discussion about if we could get in with a more realistic record.
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My previous post explains the statement I made....like I said don't think we will have 10 wins was just making that statement because someone said we would need 11 but I did not think that
 


Breakin' The Plane said:
What if they finish 8-10, but beat Wiscy twice?
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If that were to happen my hunch is it would be very difficult to leave them out. Still, if those 2 wins are in the regular season, I wouldn't advise losing the first game in the BTT. Don't want to leave a skid mark as your final impression.
 

This is a statistically strange and confusing season. Haven't checked where the Gophers stand in the RPI, but they're 37 in Sagarin and 39 in KenPom. The ELO metric in Sagarin has them at 52, which is not unexpected, but the difference between their aggregate 37 and their 52 ELO is almost unheard of by this late in the season. Obviously it's all those close losses.

I don't think they have a sufficient resume yet. The selection committee would be too smart to admit them if the season ended today. But if, like some say, they split the remaining six games (8-10 record) and have a decent showing in the BTT, I could see it. That's especially true if one of those wins is against W.
 

Bad Gopher said:
This is a statistically strange and confusing season. Haven't checked where the Gophers stand in the RPI, but they're 37 in Sagarin and 39 in KenPom. The ELO metric in Sagarin has them at 52, which is not unexpected, but the difference between their aggregate 37 and their 52 ELO is almost unheard of by this late in the season. Obviously it's all those close losses.

I don't think they have a sufficient resume yet. The selection committee would be too smart to admit them if the season ended today. But if, like some say, they split the remaining six games (8-10 record) and have a decent showing in the BTT, I could see it. That's especially true if one of those wins is against W.
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There RPI is about 68.

That's not good enough.
 


howeda7 said:
I understand all that. But SS already listed the # of teams in recent history to get in with losing cousknference records. It's unlikely. We were 8-10 last year and our resume and the B1G as a whole are both weaker.

The one advantage of 8-10 is we may avoid the 8-9 line and getting Wiscy in the BTT quarterfinals. Ideally, I want be the #7 or #10 seed.
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The tradeoff would be if we beat wisky in the qtrs and once in conference we will have more quality wins and wont need as big of a btt running
 


win the remaining home games, lose the remaining road games and win 1 in btt should put us low 50s RPI (rpiwizard)
one of the last ones in, maybe
 

cjbfbp said:
You're right but that is a significant drop over just one game (they were in the low eighties before).
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Actually it was the high eigthies, 88 if I remember right. So a 20 ranking drop. Gotta remember it was our ranking, not our rating that improved so drastically. Probably alot of teams clumped close together in that part of the rankings, so the jump was more significant. We won't jump that many spots in the rankings again outside of beating Wisconsin in Madison, if even then.


I don't think just moving into the low 50s in the RPI will be good enough. Most people in the know have basically written us off. We need to move into the low 40s at a minimum, not just because of that kind of a rating being needed, but more so because of the # of wins we'll need, including a signature win, to get our RPI down to that point.
 

Need 9 wins. I don't see them making it in with 8. I have liked what I have seen lately. But man just one or two of those close games going our way would totally change this conversation.
 

XMan said:
Need 9 wins. I don't see them making it in with 8. I have liked what I have seen lately. But man just one or two of those close games going our way would totally change this conversation.
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The only way I could see them making it with 8 regular season wins is if they went to the final game of the Big Ten tournament and I think they would have to avoid the 8th or 9th seed to have much chance at that.
 

XMan said:
Need 9 wins. I don't see them making it in with 8. I have liked what I have seen lately. But man just one or two of those close games going our way would totally change this conversation.
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That was what was so depressing about us choking on those late leads. It seems like every year, we are within 1 or 2 games one way or he other in terms of making the tournament, so you got the feeling at that time that those games could be what keep us out (like Mo missing that easy bucket at the end of Northwestern last year). Unfortunately, we haven't overcome a deficit as big and late as the ones we gave up to Purdue or Michigan.
 

8-10 won't cut it unless we get the auto-bid. No way an 8-10 B1G team gets a bid this year.
 

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