2021-2022 Roster balance concerns

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How is Johnson eligible for next year, is it because of COVID and everyone gets an extra year?
 

Not sure why there are many seemingly expecting Curry and Johnson to return. They are gone and Thompson/Pohto will be replacing them. The question is then, who will fill carr/omersa? They are the only other two you could assume are as good as gone at this point. Anything can happen once the season is over, but hard to see anyone else transferring. Even the ones not getting minutes right now (Mutaf/Freeman/Mitchell) should be able to expand their roles next year if they keep getting better.

Edit: Don't forget we will have 2 open walk on spots as well!
 

manderson1984 said:
Ihnen wants to be a wing and position versatility is necessary to create his best shot at being a pro. I don’t disagree with your current assessment, but I’m talking about next year. A regular offseason in the TC with full access to S & C coaches will be interesting for him. Maybe he just bulks up and goes to only a 4, but I don’t think that’s the only plan for him.
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I think with Ihnen, he has to do two things. Muscle up AND become strong on the dribble drive. He does those things and he can become better than just a good player. We are just scratching the surface with him. Right now his shots are not falling but we are just scratching the surface of his abilities. When Willie Burton arrived here- he looked like Bambi. All sorts of athleticism but no muscle, outside shot or dribble drive ability. He got PT his first two years because we were awful. It was really his third year where his game exploded and the better he got the more Clem let him work from the perimeter- either driving or shooting threes.
 

die hard gopher said:
Robbins has two more years if he wants them. Freeman may be the only other "true 5" but Thompson is 6-11 and Martice is 6-10, both capable of playing the 5. So even if Curry and Omersa leave, you still have 4 other guys that can play the 5. And Curry or Omersa could come back in which case you could have up to 6 other guys although I don't think either will.

I'd rathe have just saved the scholarship for a spring transfer, a guard or a wing.
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That's what I meant- Robbins has one more year after this. You don't want a frosh coming in and playing center in the Big Ten unless he is a top 30 type player. Oturu was great and he struggled as a frosh.
 

Pitino has stated before he wants to go big, much in the same way Michigan Bielin teams were.

Mitchell, Ilhen were recruited as 3s. Now it doesn't look like they will be able to pull it off, but both are young yet
 


GopherBlood666 said:
Not sure why there are many seemingly expecting Curry and Johnson to return. They are gone and Thompson/Pohto will be replacing them. The question is then, who will fill carr/omersa? They are the only other two you could assume are as good as gone at this point. Anything can happen once the season is over, but hard to see anyone else transferring. Even the ones not getting minutes right now (Mutaf/Freeman/Mitchell) should be able to expand their roles next year if they keep getting better.

Edit: Don't forget we will have 2 open walk on spots as well!
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I think the current climate of college basketball tells us that guys transferring for reasons that make seemingly no sense is becoming the norm.

Freeman and Williams are going to be juniors next year with no clear path to major role changes. I'm not sure we should expect them to wait around until they are seniors to finally ascend into main roles when guys transfer for shakier reasons.

The rumor around Gach is that he's very NBA-driven. He doesn't look like an NBA guy to me, but there's clearly urgency for him to start making money. Could he leave after this year simply to chase money somewhere? I hope not but wouldn't be shocked by that.

Does Ihnen want to stick around if he's consistently playing 6-12 minutes per game?

I'm not expecting ALL of these guys to leave, but I'm also not expecting them all to return.

Best case scenario from a roster construction perspective would be that Freeman leaves and we have three scholarships to play with looking to add a couple transfers (ideally one with multiple years of eligibility left and two grad guys) who can step in and play now.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
Pitino has stated before he wants to go big, much in the same way Michigan Bielin teams were.

Mitchell, Ilhen were recruited as 3s. Now it doesn't look like they will be able to pull it off, but both are young yet
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Michigan Beilen teams weren't big. They routinely play one true big along with either two true wings and two point guards or one true point guard and three wings.

Zach Irvin was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Glen Robinson III was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Brazdekis was the 4 man at 6-foot-7 in the mold of a traditional small forward.

That has become the way of college basketball. On a lot of teams, Ihnen is a pure PF who plays up to a small-ball center. Not down to a super-sized SF.
 

bga1 said:
That's what I meant- Robbins has one more year after this. You don't want a frosh coming in and playing center in the Big Ten unless he is a top 30 type player. Oturu was great and he struggled as a frosh.
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Robbins has two more years after this year. Currently a junior but will be a junior next year due to NCAA freezing eligibility.
 

Biggsohnasty said:
Ihnen is not a SF at all. He has no handle and his jumper is valuable because, in theory, it pulls a bigger defender away from the hoop. If opposing teams can guard him with a guard - which I believe teams can because he has no interest in going to the rim - the advantage of having on the floor is diminished. You also want him as a help defender and rebounder because his length is valuable as a help guy rahter than a guy fighting around a bunch of screens all the time. I've never understood the belief that he is a three man.

Gopher SG/SFs under Pitino: Austin Hollins, Malik Smith, Dupree, Amir Coffey, Kalscheur, Willis...Ihnen's skillset is nothing like those players.

To the original question, yes. I think the roster balance is in an odd place right now and would be shocked if there aren't departures from the frontcourt.

In today's basketball world, the maximum amount of big men you can play at any one time is TWO. Many teams play one. More and more teams are playing size less and less. Allocating seven scholarships to a position group that, ideally, has three players regularly seeing the floor is shoddy management to me.

You can play four or five perimeter guys at a time, which means if you have six that demand minutes, you can make it work. If you have five big guys that need minutes, you can't put more than two on the floor at a time.
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Great post.

To add to the bold (above), and those TWO big men shouldn't both be 7'0" center/pure post types. It's the reason why I was worried (in the scrimmage and early in the season) when Pitino was playing Curry with Robbins. I think this version of Curry is purely a 5.

It would also be the issue with playing Robbins and Freeman together. I haven't seen enough/any of Mitchell, Pohto, Thompson to know if they are capable playing the 4.
 



Biggsohnasty said:
Michigan Beilen teams weren't big. They routinely play one true big along with either two true wings and two point guards or one true point guard and three wings.

Zach Irvin was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Glen Robinson III was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Brazdekis was the 4 man at 6-foot-7 in the mold of a traditional small forward.

That has become the way of college basketball. On a lot of teams, Ihnen is a pure PF who plays up to a small-ball center. Not down to a super-sized SF.
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Yep. Bielen probably would have started Gach at the 4.
 

Biggsohnasty said:
Michigan Beilen teams weren't big. They routinely play one true big along with either two true wings and two point guards or one true point guard and three wings.

Zach Irvin was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Glen Robinson III was a 4 man for them at 6-foot-6 in the mold of a traditional small forward. Brazdekis was the 4 man at 6-foot-7 in the mold of a traditional small forward.

That has become the way of college basketball. On a lot of teams, Ihnen is a pure PF who plays up to a small-ball center. Not down to a super-sized SF.
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I don't disagree with your assessment except for that Pitino is still pretty intent on identifying his 4 and 5 man. That's something that's been very consistent with him. I think he plays two bigs, what he's been getting better at is making sure they are more able to stretch the floor vs a Reggie Lynch.

Offensively I still think Ihnen and Pitino will want him playing on the wing besides being the 4, but we can agree to disagree there with data proving your side correct :)
 

SF transfer = Hurt --> Whenever we have an opening I thought it was mandatory to suggest former MN athletes who turned us down. If I am wrong on this please correct me.

Bottom line if we make a run this year (still just want us to finish above .500 in B10) we will have a choice of transfers. A lot of potential returning talent for next year. This could be the start of something if Pitino can keep coaching like he has the last few games.
 

gophernut1 said:
SF transfer = Hurt --> Whenever we have an opening I thought it was mandatory to suggest former MN athletes who turned us down. If I am wrong on this please correct me.

Bottom line if we make a run this year (still just want us to finish above .500 in B10) we will have a choice of transfers. A lot of potential returning talent for next year. This could be the start of something if Pitino can keep coaching like he has the last few games.
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It is mandatory.
If you dont, good chance you get kicked off board
 



This is why Pitino can't just go 10-10/11-9 or whatever. He needs to do something significant. We can't go in to next year with him still needing to prove himself. Recruiting is too important. I personally don't like the '21 class. Two bigs who are not great rebounders, great scorers, or elite athletes. As the thread starter pointed out, they don't really fill a need for the '21 Gophers.

We need an impact guard via transfer just to mirror the '20 team assuming Carr leaves. Even then, we will need improvement from within to make up for some dropoff between Carr and that guard transfer. Mashburn should develop in to a better backup guard by next year. I have liked the very little I've seen of Mutaf though he also looks a little heavy footed for a guard.

I think it's pretty obvious a big or two will transfer/graduate, but we're once again in the position of needing/hoping for our best additions to come in the Spring.

Then you have the '22 class. They are going to want certainty. Despite like 8 local offers being out and being in the middle of a pandemic and a recruiting "dead" period that's extended to Spring, none of those kids have decided to commit and lock up a spot.

Obviously it's way too early to know how this year goes, but the best thing for the program will be a very clear direction come Spring.
 

It’s too early to predict next years roster or anything else.
Like has been said it is going to be crazy with transfers after this season.
Scholarships don’t really matter...everybody gets extra roster spots.
(Sounds like FB has a green light on money for extra guys...basketball will have the option too)
Not mentioned: Robbins could leave for the NBA...Richard gets lots of NBA questions about him he said. Robbins is 7 feet tall and blocks shots, he can make free throws and bonus he can make threes...so teams are interested, intrigued and inquiring already. He’s playing better...he keeps ramping up he’ll be gone.

Might not be the same guys but we will have a talented team again.
Carr with Coffey and Oturu makes us attractive...Robbins would only add to it.
But hopefully, we still got 20 games to play....a lot can happen and very quickly too.

Maybe Carr has so much fun he wants to come back if he’s not as high as he’d like on a draft board?? Too many games left...
 

I should know this but was there some allowance made with regard to scholarships to cover the extra year of eligibility.
Also, "If there's football chatter with Omersa", can that actually be real?
 

gophernut1 said:
SF transfer = Hurt --> Whenever we have an opening I thought it was mandatory to suggest former MN athletes who turned us down. If I am wrong on this please correct me.

Bottom line if we make a run this year (still just want us to finish above .500 in B10) we will have a choice of transfers. A lot of potential returning talent for next year. This could be the start of something if Pitino can keep coaching like he has the last few games.
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We all know Hurt will be playing in Australia next year.
 


They need a grad transfer combo/point guard. They are fine a bigs/wing. Gach will be back next year, no way he goes pro with his jumper going away.
 

Alexandria kid who looks like Chet Holmgren lite. (image of Chet Holmgren lite is SCARY!)

That can't be physically possible. It wouldn't be 3-dimensional anymore. The limbs would be so skinny, that they wouldn't be visible, unless you looked at him sideways. They'd be planes.
 
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Gabe Kalesheur: God, let him find his shot somewhere out there in the wasteland!

Not a basketball guy, so this is probably wrong in some way, but I'll throw it out anyway:
when I've watched Gabe play this year (and maybe true last year too?), he seems like he can't miss from inside the arc. Like he's reverse-cursed. But he wants so badly to be a 3pt sniper, and well he's just not. Once he goes outside the arc, he can't make it.

What's wrong with playing great D and hitting a bunch of jump shots for 2pt each time?? Why not just do that?
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
(1) I believe Curry will be gone and Johnson likely stays.

(2) Omersa is a wildcard. I've heard that rumors of him playing football are real. Take it for what it's worth.

(3) Ihnen needs to stay at PF. Pitino has done a great job this year of not playing people out of position (it's been a gripe of mine in the past). Ihnen is a good shooter, defender and rebounder for a PF. He is an average shooter, OK defender, and terrible ball handler for a SF. Keep him rebounding, defending, and pulling the opponents PF out of the paint.

(4) This post is going to be full of hot takes, I realize that, but I also think Mutaf has a chance to be a really good offensive player. I'd like to see him be a bit more in shape next year so he can defend and get up and down the court a bit better. But I really believe he could be a special offensive player.

(5) There will be tons of player movement next year - - essentially twice as many transfers as usual - - I expect that we will bring on a veteran 1/2 to play with Mash. I have no idea who it will be.
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Reactions

(1) No strong opinion on this statement but I would guess that both are gone.

(2) I would be very surprised if he stays.

(3) Agreed

(4) I think what you mentioned is key. He looks a bit thick to me and that's probably holding him back in Pitino's eyes. Obviously he has confidence and skills.

(5) Yes, might be the biggest crop of transfers ever. Since I personally don't expect Curry, Johnson, Carr, or Omersa to return; I would say that Pitino probably will go after two transfers - the transfer strategy is working very well at present. Freeman might get a fair amount of playing time between now and the end of the season so that might keep him here. Mitchell is a fair prospect to leave as he may see himself facing too big of a log jam in the front court.
 

matt said:
He is in his 5th year of college. I have absolutely no idea what Curry wants to do, but it would not be surprising if someone in that position did not want to spend a 6th year in college and was ready to move on to the next chapter in life, whether that is in coaching, overseas basketball, or putting their degree to work.

I agree that running Curry off would be a nightmare, and I would be surprised if that happens. I assume Pitino and Curry have at least a decent relationship and probably a good one given they have spent 5-6 years together now. If they had a poor relationship, Curry had the perfect opportunity to transfer the last two years while recovering from injuries.
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The Gopher football team might have two guys coming back for their seventh year of college football. And will have a few guys coming back for their sixth year.

I don't see why Curry wouldn't come back for at least sixth. Get a free Master's degree. It can't hurt you in the job market, why not? You're never going to get to play basketball at this high of a level again in your life, I guess?
 

I must say I find this thread interesting In the fact that we are in the middle of a stretch of games that will define our season and yet we are already trying to piece together next years roster.
 
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MplsGopher said:
What's wrong with playing great D and hitting a bunch of jump shots for 2pt each time?? Why not just do that?
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Nothing, but this is where an obsession with analytics can be harmful. Because 3s are worth 50% more than 2s and the probability of making a long range 3 over a midrange 2 isn't much lower in college, 3s strongly are encouraged. But, that sword has two edges. One often sees pockets of space between the 3 point line and the post in the modern game so take what the defense gives you. Furthermore, our team isn't a good 3 point shooting team and that's especially true for Gabe and Ihnen these days. So, the differential probability of success between midrange 2s and 3s is a little wider for our team than some others.

Gabe has been much better at 2s than 3s this season and he is also an outstanding free throw shooter. You're less likely to get fouled shooting a 3 pointer than driving inside the perimeter.
 

MplsGopher said:
The Gopher football team might have two guys coming back for their seventh year of college football. And will have a few guys coming back for their sixth year.

I don't see why Curry wouldn't come back for at least sixth. Get a free Master's degree. It can't hurt you in the job market, why not? You're never going to get to play basketball at this high of a level again in your life, I guess?
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I can see a stronger case for someone like Curry coming back because he lost a lot of playing time in his college career due to injury.
 

jovs said:
How is Johnson eligible for next year, is it because of COVID and everyone gets an extra year?
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That's how I've read the rules but I could be wrong. Also, the scholarships of those taking the extra year due to COVID (regardless of whether the players play this year or not) do not count against the scholarship limit. However, this is an allowance, not a requirement, so schools do not have to adopt this allowance and fund the additional scholarships. The Ivy League already has rejected adopting this rule and I read that Wisconsin's AD Alvarez isn't too crazy about it either.
 

cjbfbp said:
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(1) No strong opinion on this statement but I would guess that both are gone.

(2) I would be very surprised if he stays.

(3) Agreed

(4) I think what you mentioned is key. He looks a bit thick to me and that's probably holding him back in Pitino's eyes. Obviously he has confidence and skills.

(5) Yes, might be the biggest crop of transfers ever. Since I personally don't expect Curry, Johnson, Carr, or Omersa to return; I would say that Pitino probably will go after two transfers - the transfer strategy is working very well at present. Freeman might get a fair amount of playing time between now and the end of the season so that might keep him here. Mitchell is a fair prospect to leave as he may see himself facing too big of a log jam in the front court.
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Yeah, I'm kind of torn. The reason that I think Johnson stays is that it feels like if he left, Pitino would immediately be looking through the transfer wire for a PF - - ideally one who could shoot. Johnson would immediately be looking through the schools for a big time program that needs a PF who can shoot. But you're right though, if you look at the recruits coming in and the fact that we have Mitchell and Ihnen (likely both stretch 4 types) - - I could definitely see Johnson being the odd man out. It's one of those things where if Johnson is back, that might tell you a lot about Mitchell's development.

Sam Freeman is another interesting guy. I hope he gets more run. He is pretty active and even though they do different things, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if it also comes down to Freeman vs. Johnson.
 

cjbfbp said:
That's how I've read the rules but I could be wrong. Also, the scholarships of those taking the extra year due to COVID (regardless of whether the players play this year or not) do not count against the scholarship limit. However, this is an allowance, not a requirement, so schools do not have to adopt this allowance and fund the additional scholarships. The Ivy League already has rejected adopting this rule and I read that Wisconsin's AD Alvarez isn't too crazy about it either.
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I didn't realize that part but it makes sense.
 

jblass said:
I must say I find this thread interesting In the fact that we are in the middle of a stretch of games that will define our season and yet we are already trying to piece together next years rooster.
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It should be possible to do both at the same time. I'm not sure on that, it's still an open question in the message board science community.
 

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