The Matchup With Iowa

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Iowa is currently ranked 125th in scoring offense. Here are similarly ranked teams and how their offense fared against the Gophers defense this season:

129 - Colorado - Scored 7 against 2nd team D
127 - New Mexico St. - Scored 0
126 - Northwestern - Scored 3
114 - Rutgers - Scored 0

Our first team defense has given up nothing this year to teams with similar offenses as Iowa. Iowa should be very concerned about how they will score any points against our elite defense.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Iowa is currently ranked 125th in scoring offense. Here are similarly ranked teams and how their offense fared against the Gophers defense this season:

129 - Colorado - Scored 7 against 2nd team D
127 - New Mexico St. - Scored 0
126 - Northwestern - Scored 3
114 - Rutgers - Scored 0

Our first team defense has given up nothing this year to teams with similar offenses as Iowa. Iowa should be very concerned about how they will score any points against our elite defense.

+1000. People are laser focused on our O vs. Their D and ignoring our D vs their O where we have a significant advantage.

 

[btowngopher]

I don’t see how Iowa wins without a lot of self inflicted mistakes on our end. If we just play a clean game I think we win by double digits, and it shouldn’t require a lot of points being scored to do so.

 

[Gopherchase]

Our punter has been in a slump for six weeks that’s a concern relative to field position but our kick off guy and our FG kicker are great. They are going to try to throw deep balls over the middle to the tight ends to hit our weak spot 55 just like every other team has the last month but we are subbing him out now on 3rd down more so that should help some. It’s gotta come down to turnovers whoever wins the turnover game wins the actual game. It could be 0 to 0 going into overtime.

 

[Triple D]

Who has the better Kicker, it could come down to that in those weather conditions, I haven't watched any Iowa games this year.

 

[Gophers_4life]

It's actually pretty incredible how similar these two teams' seasons have ended up.

Non-conf:
- Gophers play 3 easy teams, win all
- Iowa plays South Dakota St (better team than any of our 3) and escape, and a relatively easy game against Nevada (like us playing Colorado), then the major difference is their yearly rivalry against Iowa St that they lose 7-10, so that is their extra loss compared to us.

Big Ten:
- both teams start with a win over a middling or lower team (MN with MSU, Iowa with Rutgers)
- then both teams lose three games in a row, competitive the first two, then getting blown out
MN:
Purdue 10-20
@ Illinois 14-26
@ Penn St 17-45

Iowa:
Mich 14-27
@ Illinois 6-9
@ Ohio St 10-54

- then both teams have won their last three
MN:
Rutgers 31-0
@ Neb 21-13
NW 31-3

Iowa:
NW 33-13
@ Purdue 24-3
Wisc 24-10


Offense:
- both teams generally struggle with throwing the ball
- MN is generally considered one of the best in the conference at rushing
- Iowa is generally considered one of the worst offenses in the conference period

Defense:
- MN is a very good defense, with the exception of a couple games (only major blow out against Penn St, but also Illinois "should've" scored more TDs)
- Iowa is generally considered one of the best defenses in the conference period (only major blow out against Ohio St)

Special teams:
- Iowa seems to fairly often get good returns that set up their poor offense with a short field, that they then convert for points. That seems to be one of the major ways they score points
- Gophers special teams ... to me don't seem to do a ton, other than just not hurt us.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Burns's summary:

Minnesota and Iowa aren't all that different in 2022, especially since the page turned to October. Both teams lost their first three games of October, and two of them were ranked losses in both cases. Since that three-game skid, both teams are now on three-game winning streaks heading into battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. It's the stat you'll read again and again for the next week, and that's that PJ Fleck is currently 0-5 in his time against Kirk Ferentz and Iowa. And this year, the Gophers get Iowa at home on Senior Day.

It's comical to look at how Iowa beat Wisconsin today, as it's incredibly Kirk Ferentz-esque.

- They blocked a Badger punt, and had a 17-yard touchdown drive off of it.

- An interception returned for a touchdown

- Iowa special teams get a 41-yard punt return and score a touchdown 18 yards later

They scored 24 points and only had 146 total yards on offense. It's incredible how Iowa's special teams and defense continue to carry the offense, but it happens every year and seemingly every game.

The Iowa offense is not good. They haven't been all season, but if you give their defense and special teams opportunities to make plays, they're going to make them. If you just don't shoot yourself in the foot against Iowa, that's how the Hawkeyes lose games. If you give them the ball in plus territory, as inept as they are as an offense, they can still convert.

But if PJ Fleck's going to get the monkey off his back, it will come down to Minnesota's passing offense. If the Gophers can move the ball at all with some explosive plays, and whoever the quarterback is doesn't give the ball away multiple times, they will have a great shot. If it's another day where Iowa wins the turnover battle and is gifted the ball in great field position, the streak with continue.

With the emotion of Senior Day at Huntington Bank Stadium, and technically both schools are alive in the Big Ten West, Minneapolis should have a great atmosphere on Saturday.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Can anyone remember the last time our run game tried a quick pitch or something similar spread the field and try running outside?

Didn't we run that play like 100 times against Iowa last year?

 

[Live in the now]

We’re not losing on Mo, JMS & Tanner’s senior day. I’ll bet the house on that.

With that in mind, I think Tanner starts if he can go and maybe we see both play then?

They will have to throw. Iowa has a nasty run defense with some big boys up front. Gophers will be tested and if they can’t pass they will not win. I would bet Iowa runs a similar defense that they ran against wisconsin. Having said that if the gophers don’t basically spot Iowa 14 like wisconsin did I like there chances to slug it out for a close game.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

We’re not losing on Mo, JMS & Tanner’s senior day. I’ll bet the house on that.

They will have to throw. Iowa has a nasty run defense with some big boys up front. Gophers will be tested and if they can’t pass they will not win. I would bet Iowa runs a similar defense that they ran against wisconsin. Having said that if the gophers don’t basically spot Iowa 14 like wisconsin did I like there chances to slug it out for a close game.

Yes, of course.

 

[Live in the now]

I don’t see how Iowa wins without a lot of self inflicted mistakes on our end. If we just play a clean game I think we win by double digits, and it shouldn’t require a lot of points being scored to do so.

I seriously doubt that. If the gophers score more than 17 I’ll be surprised.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Didn't we run that play like 100 times against Iowa last year?

We ran it a lot to start the game, mostly to Bucky. We don't really have a RB you can run that with this year. Mo and Potts are so much better running north/south.

Watching back the highlights against Iowa last year, it's a little scary how much more competent our offense looked both running and passing then than it does currently.

 

[tjgopher]

How many points do you see them scoring against us?

Gameplan against Nebraska wasn't working, coaches switching things up in the second half and we won the game.

I just don't get the gamplan complaints after the Rutgers and Northwestern games. Why in the heck would we change things up when it is working and we are dominating? That makes zero sense and yet it keeps on getting brought up here.

I don't understand the thought process that says...."hey, we are in control of this game and on our way to a comfortable victory.....I know, let's start chucking it downfield and see what happens."

I am getting annoyed at that line of thinking too. Beat those two teams by a combined score of 62-3 and we have people complaining about how we won?

 

[Pompous Elitist]

+1000. People are laser focused on our O vs. Their D and ignoring our D vs their O where we have a significant advantage.

Derek Burns talked some about this matchup and paraphrasing he said MN has had great success when bringing 5 or 6 on the blitz but Rossi has largely not brought extra pressure this year. The book on Petras (like Mertz IMO), is pressure in his face and force quick decisions. Iowa has improved on offense as the year has gone on.

Iowa has gotten the better of MN in this chess game for quite awhile now. I choose to think simple law of averages, home field, and favor of football gods will carry the day. Even they don’t want to see Iowa in Indianapolis again.

 

[U2Gopher]

They will have to throw.

I agree, and as I said in an earlier post, we need to find a way to throw for about 150 yards in this game to keep the Iowa defense a little more honest.

It’s probably a little late to make some drastic offensive scheme changes, but I’d like to see some sets with both Mo and Evans/Potts on the field. If the wind and cold limit the ability to pass, getting multiple weapons on the field will be vital.

 

[GopherTakes]

Here's my thoughts on the game...

The weather is going to be the biggest factor in the game, it will be the coldest temperature most of these players will ever play in. Its hard to prepare for that and will make every hit hurt that much more. I believe this game will be determined within the first quarter as scoring will be hard to come by, hence I'm taking the under.

Second, I am praying that our playbook has been so vanilla because we don't want Iowa having film on us. There is 0% chance that our play calling last game will win against the Hawkeyes. We will have to throw the ball over 10 yards in order to win. That being said whoever our QB will have to play smart. Turnovers cannot happen.

To me there is no clear option for our QB, yes Athan can use his legs but I worry he will make freshman mistakes leading to turnovers, but Tanner might limit the playbook so its a tossup for me.

Defensively if we play how we've been playing it won't take much offensively to get a W. Our pass rush has been great the past 2 weeks and that shouldn't change with Iowa's O-Line. Jah Joyner will play a huge role in this game if he continues what he's doing.

Lastly, Fans NEED to show up. Make this environment Hostile. It will be embarrassing trying to watch this team win in a half empty stadium. Cause Iowa to make mistakes.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Who has the better Kicker, it could come down to that in those weather conditions, I haven't watched any Iowa games this year.

I was thinking that too.

We got clutch field goals in Nebraska.

 

[Rowthatboat]

I was thinking that too.

We got clutch field goals in Nebraska.

Iowa’s kicker is a freshman —missed 2 so far this year —long of 54

 

[PMWinSTP]

Burns's summary:

Minnesota and Iowa aren't all that different in 2022, especially since the page turned to October. Both teams lost their first three games of October, and two of them were ranked losses in both cases. Since that three-game skid, both teams are now on three-game winning streaks heading into battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. It's the stat you'll read again and again for the next week, and that's that PJ Fleck is currently 0-5 in his time against Kirk Ferentz and Iowa. And this year, the Gophers get Iowa at home on Senior Day.

It's comical to look at how Iowa beat Wisconsin today, as it's incredibly Kirk Ferentz-esque.

- They blocked a Badger punt, and had a 17-yard touchdown drive off of it.

- An interception returned for a touchdown

- Iowa special teams get a 41-yard punt return and score a touchdown 18 yards later

They scored 24 points and only had 146 total yards on offense. It's incredible how Iowa's special teams and defense continue to carry the offense, but it happens every year and seemingly every game.

The Iowa offense is not good. They haven't been all season, but if you give their defense and special teams opportunities to make plays, they're going to make them. If you just don't shoot yourself in the foot against Iowa, that's how the Hawkeyes lose games. If you give them the ball in plus territory, as inept as they are as an offense, they can still convert.

But if PJ Fleck's going to get the monkey off his back, it will come down to Minnesota's passing offense. If the Gophers can move the ball at all with some explosive plays, and whoever the quarterback is doesn't give the ball away multiple times, they will have a great shot. If it's another day where Iowa wins the turnover battle and is gifted the ball in great field position, the streak with continue.

With the emotion of Senior Day at Huntington Bank Stadium, and technically both schools are alive in the Big Ten West, Minneapolis should have a great atmosphere on Saturday.

Yes...and no. Gophs have allowed 8 fewer points on defense and scored 127 more on offense, so almost two TDs more per game.

 

[GopherTakes]

I am getting annoyed at that line of thinking too. Beat those two teams by a combined score of 62-3 and we have people complaining about how we won?

I think people dislike the way we win those games because they know it wont work against better teams, yes we crushed those teams but they have a combined 2 in conference wins. Will it work in the next two games? Who knows.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I seriously doubt that. If the gophers score more than 17 I’ll be surprised.

See post #49.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

I don’t see how Iowa wins without a lot of self inflicted mistakes on our end. If we just play a clean game I think we win by double digits, and it shouldn’t require a lot of points being scored to do so.

Iowa has been outstanding at contributing to their opponent’s self destructions.

 

[Six to Eight]

I think people dislike the way we win those games because they know it wont work against better teams, yes we crushed those teams but they have a combined 2 in conference wins. Will it work in the next two games? Who knows.

Exactly. Not sure why some can't grasp this. Do the Gophers need some degree of offensive balance to beat good teams? Seems a very clear yes. The running game is already very good. But their passing game is inept. The receivers and the new QB aren't going to get better if they never get an opportunity. So maybe when you're solidly up against an inferior team in the 4th quarter....that might, just might be a good time to try to expand your abilities. No one really cares whether that last game against NW was 31-3 or 31-17.

I am getting annoyed at that line of thinking too. Beat those two teams by a combined score of 62-3 and we have people complaining about how we won?

That's shortsighted. Nothing was gained by giving Mo and Trey more carries in the 4th quarter. Some fans want to see improvement, not just more proof that we can grind down inferior teams after the outcome is already decided.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

These mistakes aren't just happening for Iowa, they have a pretty simple recipe. They rush the QB and stop the run without blitzing. The windows are tighter and they force people into making mistakes. They're really good at coaching their linebackers in coverage and it's just going to be a tough team to score on.

 

[GopherTakes]

Exactly. Not sure why some can't grasp this. Do the Gophers need some degree of offensive balance to beat good teams? Seems a very clear yes. The running game is already very good. But their passing game is inept. The receivers and the new QB aren't going to get better if they never get an opportunity. So maybe when you're solidly up against an inferior team in the 4th quarter....that might, just might be a good time to try to expand your abilities. No one really cares whether that last game against NW was 31-3 or 31-17.

Glad we agree. Are people genuinely thinking fans are annoyed were winning? I love PJ Fleck and what he's done for the program but sometimes his conservative coaching can be too much. God forbid Mo gets injured in garbage time forcing the ball up the throat of the defense, people would be outraged.

Up by 2 scores with the defense playing how they have been, I want to see them throw the ball. We know rushing it for 4 yards a carry works against the bottom of the B1G. Its hard for a Freshman QB and young WRs to get into a groove when we call 2 passing plays a quarter.

 

[jonnyganas]

Exactly. Not sure why some can't grasp this. Do the Gophers need some degree of offensive balance to beat good teams? Seems a very clear yes. The running game is already very good. But their passing game is inept. The receivers and the new QB aren't going to get better if they never get an opportunity. So maybe when you're solidly up against an inferior team in the 4th quarter....that might, just might be a good time to try to expand your abilities. No one really cares whether that last game against NW was 31-3 or 31-17.


That's shortsighted. Nothing was gained by giving Mo and Trey more carries in the 4th quarter. Some fans want to see improvement, not just more proof that we can grind down inferior teams after the outcome is already decided.

The QB and WRs have what is known as "practice" which is their opportunity to get better, not just live snaps in a game. Garbage time is not a "let's try new stuff and see what happens" scenario. You play to win the game.

 

[GopherTakes]

The QB and WRs have what is known as "practice" which is their opportunity to get better, not just live snaps in a game. Garbage time is not a "let's try new stuff and see what happens" scenario. You play to win the game.

I have to completely disagree with you there, if that's the case why did our defense put in their backups? Why play Zach Evans in that last drive? They already get reps in practice right?

There is a complete difference in playing in practice unis against your own team compared to a game environment. It is good to see what your players can do in situations that actually matter. Do you really want the first time they have to have a pass heavy offensive drive to be against a top 5 defense on FOX?

 

[Six to Eight]

The QB and WRs have what is known as "practice" which is their opportunity to get better, not just live snaps in a game. Garbage time is not a "let's try new stuff and see what happens" scenario. You play to win the game.

Yeah, I've heard that line about garbage time parroted plenty of times. I've also heard people that actually get paid to do the job say that "practice" is no substitute for game repetitions against a real opponent.

You play to win the game.

As I said, when the game is already decided, there exists the potential to make additional progress that could help you next game. Let's be honest now. If PJ decided to throw the ball around in the 4th quarter at the cost of giving up a touchdown or two in "garbage time", you would have no problem with it. This is merely defending the status quo. Which is fine, as is second-guessing some coaching decisions on a fan discussion board.

 

[gopher7]

Iowa is currently ranked 125th in scoring offense. Here are similarly ranked teams and how their offense fared against the Gophers defense this season:

129 - Colorado - Scored 7 against 2nd team D
127 - New Mexico St. - Scored 0
126 - Northwestern - Scored 3
114 - Rutgers - Scored 0

Our first team defense has given up nothing this year to teams with similar offenses as Iowa. Iowa should be very concerned about how they will score any points against our elite defense.

I agree Iowa's offense will not do much. But they don't have to when you have players who have scored 2 safeties, 4 defensive TDs and blocked 3 punts (unofficial count). Iowa has won 2 games while gaining fewer than 175 yards. That is why this game is scary. If we go with our Run, run to bring up 3 & 8 game plan, it's going to be a really long day. Kirk needs the game plan of his life to take advantage of AK's strengths while minimize risk.

 

[Jack jones]

Iowa won’t have a built in “scout “ for the Gopher offense as they had against Whisky. Signing the Wisky graduate assistant from 2020-2021 (worked with the Wisky offense) was a stroke of genius for Iowa’s defense. hopefully our defense can take advantage of perhaps the worst offensive line in B1G history.