Gopher07 said:A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs South Dakota State W (28-21)
@ Fresno State W (38-35)
vs Georgia Southern W (35-32)
@ Purdue W (38-31)
vs Illinois W (40-17)
vs Nebraska W (34-7)
@ Rutgers -24
vs Maryland -5.5
vs Penn State +15.5
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern -0.5
vs Wisconsin +21.0
Final record: 9-3 (6-3)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
Here ya go. Directly quoted from Gopher07 and just updated where needed. Preseason projection was 5-7 (3-6)
Can you post what the original W/L predictions were as well? I want to see where the preseason projection has been wrong so far.
We're back for another year of mostly meaningless prognostication! As usual, I'll preface my first post of the season with my disclaimer - that is, these predictions are for fun, they're based on connections between teams and performance of these teams against expected values, and will likely change a lot, particularly early in the year. Basically, it's just a guess at this point, but it's for entertainment and debate, and thankfully doesn't mean anything when it comes to actual results. That said, it hasn't been too far off in recent years as far as final record is concerned.
Last year it had Minnesota on the line of 5-7 or 6-6 regular season (went 6-6), the year before it had them at 5-7 (went 5-7), and the year before that it said 8-4 was an outcome (went 8-4). All of those came pretty spot on at the end of the day.
All that to say that doesn't mean this year will be the same predictive outcome. However, the ratings would tell us it might be time to pump the brakes on the hype train. The Gophers find themselves in a lot of toss-up games, very few "sure things" and a few not-so-likely-to-win matchups. I expect, as usual, we'll find out a lot about the team in weeks 1 and 2 - a couple of toss-up games (one leaning in Minnesota's favor, one leaning in the opponent's) that, if the team performs well, could swing the season from borderline-bowl to maybe 8+ wins.
A reminder on how this comes together. I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs South Dakota State -6
@ Fresno State +2
vs Georgia Southern -13.5
@ Purdue +2
vs Illinois -14
vs Nebraska +5.5
@ Rutgers -10.5
vs Maryland -4.5
vs Penn State +9
@ Iowa +12
@ Northwestern +6
vs Wisconsin +7
Final record: 5-7 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Georgia Southern, vs Illinois, @ Rutgers
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs South Dakota State, @ Fresno State, @ Purdue, vs Nebraska, vs Maryland, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Penn State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin
Com beat me to it...
We got pretty different spreads though, so I might have messed up. At least we got the same final record
ESPN FPI has the following odds for us to win:
Rutgers - 94%
Maryland - 78%
Penn St - 20%
Iowa - 28%
Northwestern - 63%
Wisconsin - 17.5%
I’ll give it a shot this week. Forgive any mistakes please.
This is not my deal, but if there’s demand I could try and pick it up if the OP (polar bear gophers avatar) doesn’t mind. I don’t want to step on toes.
Minnesota (-25) at Rutgers - likely W
Minnesota (-5) vs Maryland - it’s up
Minnesota (+12) vs Penn State - likely L
Minnesota (+9) at Iowa - likely L
Minnesota (-4) at Northwestern - toss up
Minnesota (+15) vs Wisconsin - likely loss
So if we win our toss up vs Northwestern and Maryland the metric has us going 9 and 3!
ESPN FPI has the following odds for us to win:
Rutgers - 94%
Maryland - 78%
Penn St - 20%
Iowa - 28%
Northwestern - 63%
Wisconsin - 17.5%
Thanks all! Still hope Gophers07 is doing OK, but I appreciate you taking a stab at those...although perhaps I wished you hadn't as Sagarin (is that a person? computer ? formula?) is not a fan! Either that, or IS a huge fan of Iowa, PSU, NW, and Wisc. I wouldn't have predicted those lines. Oh well, it's all in good fun. Nice to see Gophers already beat the preseason win prediction only halfway through the year!
Is that Goljan i spy in your profile pic? And with a username like VACTERL? That can only mean one thing.
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Good eye. Not to get TOO off topic, but kids these days don’t even know who Goljan is... I’d imagine we are of the same vintage.