Will defense hold this team back?

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Plinnius

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Interesting article.

I don't think anybody is expecting a deep tournament run from this team, but I sure hope that our mediocre defense doesn't keep us from making the tournament completely.

And how bad is Michigan's defense? Jesus.
 

Interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

So the Gophers stand at #64 in the Pomeroy rankings as of January 7th. 64 teams in The Dance. Coincidence? :rolleyes:

I'm intrigued to check back with these rankings as the Big Ten season progresses. Our team is now in the "sink or swim" portion of the schedule.
 

Interesting stuff. But if there's something that's going to hold the Gophers back against premier competition, I'd choose offense and their lack of a true star, not their defense. It's their defense that makes me feel like the Gophers have a chance in most every game they play. That, and the guy on the bench.
 

I agree. Call me crazy, but I've never thought of our defense as a problem...

But, I guess everyone has a different way of measuring that stuff. Personally, I kind of like the fact that we're amongst the league leaders in most defensive categories. But, as I said earlier, maybe I just am not seeing the overall picture...:p
 

We're up to 67th in the adjusted defensive efficiency ratings on kenpom.com as of today.
 


I'd be curious to see the formula used to derive these ratings. My guess is that employing a press as often as the Gophs do would make their defensive numbers look worse than they actually are and their offensive numbers look better than they actually are.
 

Its based on points given up per possession, so pressing wouldn't change much.
 

I'd say pressing would make a difference. The entire style of defense we play leads to some easy baskets but it often also forces our opponents to play our style of game and leads to easy offense - something we need as we can get pretty stagnant in the half court against good teams.
 

Gophers09 said:
I'd say pressing would make a difference. The entire style of defense we play leads to some easy baskets but it often also forces our opponents to play our style of game and leads to easy offense - something we need as we can get pretty stagnant in the half court against good teams.
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Exactly. Opponents get more easy buckets when we apply pressure, and vice versa.
 



Which would be accurately depicted in the statistics. A basket counts the same whether it scored off the press or in the half court.
 

"No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure)."

Perhaps the poor competition we have faced is dragging down our efficiency? I feel the same way - defense is mostly fine, but we lack a go-to scorer.

On the subject of the press deflating our numbers...our overall efficiency numbers would not be affected (because we get more baskets but give up more baskets) but the defensive numbers alone might look a little anemic. Think of the Phoenix Suns ballgame with D'Antoni. They played a high pace, high tempo, aggressive game. They scored a lot of points, and gave up a lot of points in the process. This doesn't mean they are a bad defensive team...their style of ball simply lends itself to a higher percentage of shots going in. Feel free to criticize my analysis, but I don't think you can accurately judge every D-1 team by the same metric. That being said, I don't think the press would really have a substantial (significant) effect on the numbers, but it may alter it a bit.
 

Efficiency stats are based on a per possesion average, so the number of possessions doesn't matter.

Defensive efficiency
Points allowed per 100 defensive possessions.

In order to compute efficiency, we need to know how to compute possessions.

Possessions
We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula.

FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA

For each team, possessions are counted for the team and their opponents, and then averaged.

Efficiency gives us broad view of how well the offense or defense functions, but we can break efficiency into what Dean Oliver dubbed the Four Factors. Shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws provide the basic components of efficiency.
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Yeah, defensive/offensive efficiency stats are pretty straightforward. As you can see here, only four Big Ten teams have currently given up more points per every possession (x 100) than we have. Offensively, it's more of the same -- only four Big Ten teams have scored fewer points per every possession (x 100) than we have.
 



Plinnius said:
Yeah, defensive/offensive efficiency stats are pretty straightforward. As you can see here, only four Big Ten teams have currently given up more points per every possession (x 100) than we have. Offensively, it's more of the same -- only four Big Ten teams have scored fewer points per every possession (x 100) than we have.
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I'm trying to figure out how that works. It is amazing to me that the team that leads the Big Ten in steals and blocked shots, is 2nd in the Big Ten in FG % against, 2nd in offensive rebounds, 3rd in assists, 4th in rebounding margin, 4th in FG%, 4th in points scored and 5th in turnover margin could be so low in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Obviously, the formula works out that way, but how does it compute that a team that ranks that well in all of those categories that to me seem to have a direct correlation on efficiency on both ends could rank so low? And, by what deviation does it go by? In other words, could one really bad game skew is so poorly that it puts us low? Just curious.
 

Selection Sunday and MRJ I agree w/ you guys....I think our D is one reason we are ranked #19. if rankings were based on offense alone we wouldn't be anywhere near the top 25. I love our defense; I think it is hard-nosed, intense, and keeps us in games. period.
 

tjgopher said:
I'm trying to figure out how that works. It is amazing to me that the team that leads the Big Ten in steals and blocked shots, is 2nd in the Big Ten in FG % against, 2nd in offensive rebounds, 3rd in assists, 4th in rebounding margin, 4th in FG%, 4th in points scored and 5th in turnover margin could be so low in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Obviously, the formula works out that way, but how does it compute that a team that ranks that well in all of those categories that to me seem to have a direct correlation on efficiency on both ends could rank so low? And, by what deviation does it go by? In other words, could one really bad game skew is so poorly that it puts us low? Just curious.
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I think it has more to do with poor rebounding, not sure how at midnight on a friday, but it is there, I can sense it.
 

From the Barn said:
I think it has more to do with poor rebounding, not sure how at midnight on a friday, but it is there, I can sense it.
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I suspect you're right. THe key is the rebounding margin stat. That stat is misleading because of the Concordia game (which, for all I know, wasn't even counted in the defensive efficiency stat.) Without that game, we're not as high in margin.

In determining defensive efficiency it doesn't matter how many offensive rebounds we get, but it matters a lot how many the other team gets because then they get multiple chance to score in one possession. Doesn't take a lot of second chance baskets to skew the results. So our second place in offensive rebounds is irrelevant, and our rebounding margin is misleading, and all those offensive rebounds we've given up (think MSU) hurt our efficiency.

Another problem with that stat is it doesn't measure progress. Look how much better our defense is with DJ, and remember that we didn't have him for the majority of our games. Look at Cole's defensive improvement. We're simply not the same defensive team we were at the beginning of the season--as would be expected with such a young team.
 

You're right, it's our opponent's offensive rebounding that's bringing us down. I looked at the stats, and we rank 292 nationally and dead last in the Big Ten.


It also appears that our opponents are shooting an amazing 75.9% at the free throw line against us, ranking us 343 out of 344 teams.
 

Plinnius said:
You're right, it's our opponent's offensive rebounding that's bringing us down. I looked at the stats, and we rank 292 nationally and dead last in the Big Ten.


It also appears that our opponents are shooting an amazing 75.9% at the free throw line against us, ranking us 343 out of 344 teams.
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When I first started reading this thread, I pictured all of those offensive rebounds we gave to Michigan State and how many times they scored on them. That certainly will hurt our points per possession ranking.

As far as opponent FT shooting percentage, maybe Tubby should talk to Brad Childress. At his press conference Thursday, he was pleasantly explaining how the Vikes held their opponents to a low field goal conversion percentage, and was touting that as a positive to the season. I have a feeling that coaching strategies would have an equal part in both of those stats.
 

Interesting that our DEFENSIVE Efficiency Rating is so low when most of us think that defense is our strong suit.

It seems this D-Rating is affected by our atrocious offensive rebounding as mentioned above. It also seems that our press would result in some easy baskets for the opposition and also drive the opponents FG% up.

Seems contradictory though that a team we all consider strong on the defensive end should have a low Defensive Efficiency Rating.
 

One thing we seem to be overlooking is that the writer is correlating a high defensive efficiency with its ability to reach the Final Four (or Elite Eight). Our defensive efficiency this year doesn't particularly concern me as I'll be happy if we get an offer to dance ... I'm certainly not expecting us to reach the Sweet Sixteen let alone the EE or FF.

I'd like to know what the correlation is between defensive efficiency and getting an elective offer to the NCAA tournament. (That eliminates those teams that get in because they won their conference tournament or even their conference standings.) In my mind, that would be closer to an "apples-to-apples" relationship than fretting over the correlation between being a Top-25 Efficiency winner versus a Final Four participant.
 

None of the efficiency ratings mean diddly squat to me. The only efficiency rating that really matters to me is the fact that we are 14-1 this season. That is the only rating that really counts. GO GOPHERS!!!!!!!!!!
 

I think we're missing a key point here. Like it or not, this is a stat that appears to track results.

The Gophers have now become competitive under Tubby, but we have to take the next step before we're looking at an Elite-Eight team. I can see that happening as soon as next year with a veteran team enhanced with key newcomers.
 

Mikie S said:
I think we're missing a key point here. Like it or not, this is a stat that appears to track results.
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I think yes and no on tracking this a meaningful stat. Sure, it has some meaning, but it is not an end-all be-all. Sure, the Dukes and UNCs and PITTs rank high in this, but they rank high in EVERYTHING. If you look at Pom's defensive efficiency rankings, you see that:

Cleveland State is 8th in the country in defensive efficiency
Wright State is 25th
Evansville is 34th
Stephen F Austin is 41st

Doubtful that any of those teams even make the NCAA tourney.

Oklahoma is ranked 59th in defensive efficiency.
Notre Dame is 138th
Baylor is 78th
Marquette is 61st
Michigan State is 57th
Tennessee is 54th
Davidson is 58th
Oklahoma State is 115th
Florida is 110th
Arizona is 100th
Michigan is 179th
St. Mary's is 103rd.

Almost all of those teams will get into the NCAAs.
 

Revisiting this thread...

Remember the article in this thread's premise?

"The first chart hammers home the central point: No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure). And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. "


Well. . .we're now ranked 25th in defensive efficiency.

:D
 

lol I read this thread thinking it was new stuff. Well it seems obvious that it was a lack of competition that held down the rating. Seems like once Big Ten season hit, reality started to show, as the offensive efficiency is now 76th.
 

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