Who’s your 4?

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Jike Spingleton said:
Notre Dame will lose by 4 TDs or more, because that's what they ALWAYS do in major bowl games. And then they'll be ranked in the preseason Top 10 next year, and we'll do this nonsense all over again.
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Yeah. And the sad part is...the justification to keep Cincinnati and coastal out is that they might get blown out and not deserve to be there.

Well, the only way you know that is by putting them there.

12 or 16 team playoffs with every conference champ getting an auto bid.

16 Alabama Birmingham (CUSA) vs 1 Alabama (SEC)
9 Georgia (at large 4) vs 8 Cincinnati (AAC)

13 San Jose State (Mountain West) vs 4 Notre Dame (At Large 1)
12 Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) vs 5 Texas A&M (at large 2)

14 Oregon (Pac 12) vs 3 Ohio State (Big 10)
11 Indiana (at large 6) vs 6 Oklahoma (big 12)


15 Ball state (MAC) vs 2 Clemson (ACC)
10 Iowa state (at large 5) vs 7 Florida (at large 3)
 

Some guy said:
Yeah. And the sad part is...the justification to keep Cincinnati and coastal out is that they might get blown out and not deserve to be there.

Well, the only way you know that is by putting them there.

12 or 16 team playoffs with every conference champ getting an auto bid.

16 Alabama Birmingham (CUSA) vs 1 Alabama (SEC)
9 Georgia (at large 4) vs 8 Cincinnati (AAC)

13 San Jose State (Mountain West) vs 4 Notre Dame (At Large 1)
12 Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) vs 5 Texas A&M (at large 2)

14 Oregon (Pac 12) vs 3 Ohio State (Big 10)
11 Indiana (at large 6) vs 6 Oklahoma (big 12)


15 Ball state (MAC) vs 2 Clemson (ACC)
10 Iowa state (at large 5) vs 7 Florida (at large 3)
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The justification is that they don't have quality wins. Notre Dame's resume is just way better than Coastal Carolina's or Cinci's. Texas A&M had a better argument than those teams.

Clemson without Lawrence is a MUCH better team than any team that Cinci or Coastal played. Clemson without Lawrence is a top 5 team. Their QB was one of the best FR in the country and threw for over 400 yards in that game. D.J. Uiagalelei is very likely going to be a first round draft pick at QB. They'll likely have 6 First Round draft picks. Beating Clemson, with or without Lawrence, was a huge win for Notre Dame.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
The justification is that they don't have quality wins. Notre Dame's resume is just way better than Coastal Carolina's or Cinci's. Texas A&M had a better argument than those teams.

Clemson without Lawrence is a MUCH better team than any team that Cinci or Coastal played. Clemson without Lawrence is a top 5 team. Their QB was one of the best FR in the country and threw for over 400 yards in that game. D.J. Uiagalelei is very likely going to be a first round draft pick at QB. They'll likely have 6 First Round draft picks. Beating Clemson, with or without Lawrence, was a huge win for Notre Dame.
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I’m going to go ahead and disagree with you.

texas a&ms best win is 3 loss Florida

Florida’s best win is over a 2 loss Georgia
Florida lost to an unbeaten team twice and a below .500 LSU team

Coastal best win is either over 1 loss Louisiana or 1 loss BYU
lousiana has one loss to an unbeaten team and a win over a “top 10” team as well


basically in terms of quality wins Florida and Louisiana are equal but we just ignore Florida’s 3 losses?

it’s all subjective and eye test. You can blend analytics to make up any argument you want but with hardly any inter conference games this year really it’s all subjective and eye test.


my whole premise is there should be a system where teams get screwed based on name.


Minnesota got screwed for penn state in bowl selection last year.
Coastal got screwed for Iowa state this year.

It’s a stupid system.
National champions crowned in this system are no more true champs than the old BCS. I actually prefer the old BCS because people still seemed to believe that thing other than national championships mattered in college football 8-9 years ago.

Who have Clemson and Notre dame beaten outside of conference conference to prove anyone on their schedule is better than anyone else? Virginia tech lost to Liberty, Pitt lost to UCF. It is possible Notre dame and Clemson both are mediocre and just happen to have good records in a mediocre league.

The whole system is completely messed up. We “know” Clemson and Notre dame have more quality wins because they’re in the ACC and we know Iowa state is better because they’re in the big 12...but there isn’t actually any data to back up that those leagues are better...and even if the league is better...that doesn’t prove the team is better
 
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Why is Notre Dame in? They got manhandled.

Indiana did much better but they have the COVID.

I'd have picked the big 3 of Alabama, Clemson and OSU. And then, probably A&M or Oklahoma. I feel A&M would play a better game though.
 

Some guy said:
I’m going to go ahead and disagree with you.

texas a&ms best win is 3 loss Florida

Florida’s best win is over a 2 loss Georgia
Florida lost to an unbeaten team twice and a below .500 LSU team

Coastal best win is either over 1 loss Louisiana or 1 loss BYU
lousiana has one loss to an unbeaten team and a win over a “top 10” team as well


basically in terms of quality wins Florida and Louisiana are equal but we just ignore Florida’s 3 losses?

it’s all subjective and eye test. You can blend analytics to make up any argument you want but with hardly any inter conference games this year really it’s all subjective and eye test.


my whole premise is there should be a system where teams get screwed based on name.


Minnesota got screwed for penn state in bowl selection last year.
Coastal got screwed for Iowa state this year.

It’s a stupid system.
National champions crowned in this system are no more true champs than the old BCS. I actually prefer the old BCS because people still seemed to believe that thing other than national championships mattered in college football 8-9 years ago.

Who have Clemson and Notre dame beaten outside of conference conference to prove anyone on their schedule is better than anyone else? Virginia tech lost to Liberty, Pitt lost to UCF. It is possible Notre dame and Clemson both are mediocre and just happen to have good records in a mediocre league.

The whole system is completely messed up. We “know” Clemson and Notre dame have more quality wins because they’re in the ACC and we know Iowa state is better because they’re in the big 12...but there isn’t actually any data to back up that those leagues are better...and even if the league is better...that doesn’t prove the team is better
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Every system that does not bring subjectivity to it is sillier (IMO). I don't give a crap about conference champions of lesser conferences. I don't care if you run the table and against lesser teams.

I really think your argument falls apart when you try to argue that "we don't really know if Clemson isn't average". Yes, we do. Clemson is really good. If you don't know that because you can't find a piece of data to support that opinion, that's more of a failure of yours than of that process. So lets look at the teams you cherry picked.

"Pitt lost to UCF. "No, they didn't. They beat a much higher ranked UCF in 2019. They didn't play them this year.

Let's look at Liberty. Yes, they beat Virginia Tech 38-35 and NC State 14-15. Clemson beat Virginia Tech by 35 points. NC State was smashed by Miami and North Carolina. Clemson absolutely destroyed Miami. Yes, they played a closed schedule this year because of COVID but that feels a lot like you're trying to shoehorn an argument to fit a narrative. If you look at how like opponents faired against like competition, it's not even close.

We "know" Clemson is better than Coastal Carolina because it's really the only logical conclusion. They will have more players drafted in the first round of the draft next year than Coastal Carolina will have in the whole draft the next three seasons. When Clemson faired similar opponents (or opponents of opponents), Clemson was significantly more impressive. Lastly, it's just common sense. There is way more talent in the ACC, every single season, than there is in the Sun Belt. You know it too.

If not, care to make a wager for next year? The Sun Belt always has a lot of of crossover games with the ACC and SEC. I'll take the ACC & SEC and I'll even give you 1:2 odds.
 

The system will never be perfect, so outrage is not really justified. That said, the committee really needs to clearly define what they're trying to accomplish.

If you're determined to find the best team, we already know ND is not it. Cincinnati might be. We simply don't know.

If you're trying to find the 4 teams with the best resumes, then ND might belong there.

So is the playoff a reward for playing a strong schedule and putting together a nice resume, or is it a quest to find the best team without question?
 

MGGopher said:
The system will never be perfect, so outrage is not really justified. That said, the committee really needs to clearly define what they're trying to accomplish.

If you're determined to find the best team, we already know ND is not it. Cincinnati might be. We simply don't know.

If you're trying to find the 4 teams with the best resumes, then ND might belong there.

So is the playoff a reward for playing a strong schedule and putting together a nice resume, or is it a quest to find the best team without question?
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Where are you seeing that their job is not clearly defined as ranking the top 12 teams in the country, for the NY6 bowls? That is the job.
 



For any who are curious, the reason Bama - Notre Dame are playing at Jerryworld is that the committee wanted to "reward" the #1 team's fanbase with the most possible attendees. Texas says 16k can come to the game, while Louisiana is only allowing 3k at the Sugar Bowl.

Jerry's game will NOT be the Rose Bowl. That game is played in Pasadena. I don't give a rat's ass what ESPN fakes on the screen. Won't be watching that game, anyway.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Every system that does not bring subjectivity to it is sillier (IMO). I don't give a crap about conference champions of lesser conferences. I don't care if you run the table and against lesser teams.

I really think your argument falls apart when you try to argue that "we don't really know if Clemson isn't average". Yes, we do. Clemson is really good. If you don't know that because you can't find a piece of data to support that opinion, that's more of a failure of yours than of that process. So lets look at the teams you cherry picked.

"Pitt lost to UCF. "No, they didn't. They beat a much higher ranked UCF in 2019. They didn't play them this year.

Let's look at Liberty. Yes, they beat Virginia Tech 38-35 and NC State 14-15. Clemson beat Virginia Tech by 35 points. NC State was smashed by Miami and North Carolina. Clemson absolutely destroyed Miami. Yes, they played a closed schedule this year because of COVID but that feels a lot like you're trying to shoehorn an argument to fit a narrative. If you look at how like opponents faired against like competition, it's not even close.

We "know" Clemson is better than Coastal Carolina because it's really the only logical conclusion. They will have more players drafted in the first round of the draft next year than Coastal Carolina will have in the whole draft the next three seasons. When Clemson faired similar opponents (or opponents of opponents), Clemson was significantly more impressive. Lastly, it's just common sense. There is way more talent in the ACC, every single season, than there is in the Sun Belt. You know it too.

If not, care to make a wager for next year? The Sun Belt always has a lot of of crossover games with the ACC and SEC. I'll take the ACC & SEC and I'll even give you 1:2 odds.
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I don’t care to make a wager. You’re probably correct.

I THINK the following teams are all probably better than coastal Carolina:
Clemson, Notre dame, Oklahoma, Ohio state, etc



here is what I KNOW FOR SURE:
Notre Dame isn’t the best team in the country
Texas A&M isn’t the best team in the country



we should use the 2 semifinal things to figure out things we think but don’t know rather than to confirm things we already know. Using a team that has already proven themselves to be not the best team on the field in one of four spots is a waste of a game.



it’s fine if you don’t care about small conferences. That’s your prerogative
 

Otis said:
Why is Notre Dame in? They got manhandled.

Indiana did much better but they have the COVID.

I'd have picked the big 3 of Alabama, Clemson and OSU. And then, probably A&M or Oklahoma. I feel A&M would play a better game though.
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Yeah, A&M has the best argument outside of Notre Dame.

I think Notre Dame gets in because they have the better win than A&M. Notre Dame's second best win (North Carolina) is better than A&M's second best win.
 

Some guy said:
I don’t care to make a wager. You’re probably correct.

I THINK the following teams are all probably better than coastal Carolina:
Clemson, Notre dame, Oklahoma, Ohio state, etc



here is what I KNOW FOR SURE:
Notre Dame isn’t the best team in the country
Texas A&M isn’t the best team in the country



we should use the 2 semifinal things to figure out things we think but don’t know rather than to confirm things we already know. Using a team that has already proven themselves to be not the best team on the field in one of four spots is a waste of a game.



it’s fine if you don’t care about small conferences. That’s your prerogative
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What you're talking about is a "Plus-" system, and I think it would make sense if we could do the following:

- play all bowl games as they were meant/contracted to be played, through NYD
- THEN do one final re-ranking of teams
- the top X then get into a playoff, with all sites bid-out (not as bowl games)


I hate the current way of using a select group of bowl games as the first round of a playoff.


But that's not going to happen, because bowl games will scream that people won't care and won't tune in.
 



Some guy said:
I don’t care to make a wager. You’re probably correct.

I THINK the following teams are all probably better than coastal Carolina:
Clemson, Notre dame, Oklahoma, Ohio state, etc


here is what I KNOW FOR SURE:
Notre Dame isn’t the best team in the country
Texas A&M isn’t the best team in the country


we should use the 2 semifinal things to figure out things we think but don’t know rather than to confirm things we already know. Using a team that has already proven themselves to be not the best team on the field in one of four spots is a waste of a game.

it’s fine if you don’t care about small conferences. That’s your prerogative
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It's going to be subjective. It only matters what you can reasonably think.

How dare you say that you KNOW Notre Dame isn't the best team in the country?!?!? You think it. You have great reasons to think it and "you're probably correct" but you don't KNOW it. This semantics game is nonsense.

You'll never get to the perfect world described in your bottom paragraph. How do we know Clemson is better than Notre Dame. They are 1-1 against each other this year. It's also really not that uncommon for lower ranked (imperfect) teams to win the whole thing.
In 2017, an Alabama team that was NOT SEC champ, beat Clemson and then Georgia to win the National Championship. I thought we KNEW they weren't the best team? In 2014, Ohio State won the whole thing as a #4 seed.

My point - - you KNOW that Texas A&M isn't one of the top 4 teams to lesser degree than I KNOW Clemson is better than Coastal Carolina. So we are all living in the world of "I THINK", you're just pretending not to.

As to your last point. I love all football. I watch the smaller conferences play, all the way down to D3. Before I even moved around a lot, I watched a ton of HS football. This isn't me ripping on those conferences, one of the best games I watched all year was BYU vs. Coastal Carolina. I just like them for what they are. I would be fine with a non-P5 program getting into the final 4 but their resume would have to be splashy. Unfortunately, this year, without as many non-conference games, the teams really didn't have the opportunity to play as many of those games. Had they trounced UCF and Tulsa, that would have helped.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
It's going to be subjective. It only matters what you can reasonably think.

How dare you say that you KNOW Notre Dame isn't the best team in the country?!?!? You think it. You have great reasons to think it and "you're probably correct" but you don't KNOW it. This semantics game is nonsense.

You'll never get to the perfect world described in your bottom paragraph. How do we know Clemson is better than Notre Dame. They are 1-1 against each other this year. It's also really not that uncommon for lower ranked (imperfect) teams to win the whole thing.
In 2017, an Alabama team that was NOT SEC champ, beat Clemson and then Georgia to win the National Championship. I thought we KNEW they weren't the best team? In 2014, Ohio State won the whole thing as a #4 seed.

My point - - you KNOW that Texas A&M isn't one of the top 4 teams to lesser degree than I KNOW Clemson is better than Coastal Carolina. So we are all living in the world of "I THINK", you're just pretending not to.

As to your last point. I love all football. I watch the smaller conferences play, all the way down to D3. Before I even moved around a lot, I watched a ton of HS football. This isn't me ripping on those conferences, one of the best games I watched all year was BYU vs. Coastal Carolina. I just like them for what they are. I would be fine with a non-P5 program getting into the final 4 but their resume would have to be splashy. Unfortunately, this year, without as many non-conference games, the teams really didn't have the opportunity to play as many of those games. Had they trounced UCF and Tulsa, that would have helped.
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I do know Notre Dame isn’t the best team. The best team doesn’t get blown out in a conference title game

The other examples you gave don’t help me because I don’t believe the current model finds the best team.


We are living in a world of semantics, I know. So I don’t think the job of the committee should be to find the best four. The job of the committee should be to put in the best 4 unbeatens. If not 4 unbeatens pick the next best 1 loss team. I don’t care about SOS. Win your games.


it’s all subjective, so let’s reward the teams that haven’t lost: that’s the most objective criteria


we aren’t going to agree and that’s okay. More people have your point of view


I’d like to see a 16 team playoff with all conference champs getting in an 6 at large bids...because that would take even more subjectivity out of it. It would place a high value on conference championships enhancing the regular season (although the expansion would devalue the regular season). I don’t think that’ll happen anytime soon, if ever.
 
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Otis said:
Why is Notre Dame in? They got manhandled.

Indiana did much better but they have the COVID.

I'd have picked the big 3 of Alabama, Clemson and OSU. And then, probably A&M or Oklahoma. I feel A&M would play a better game though.
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A&M also got manhandled by Alabama, worse than ND against Clemson. ND got in because they have a top 4 resume in the country. Their win against Clemson was better than A&M's win against Florida and their second best win against UNC is better than A&M's second best win against Auburn, pretty equal to the Florida win actually. Oklahoma lost two games and should not in in over a one loss ND and OU's best win is not as good as ND's best win.
 

I think the picks were fine. If they put Cincinnati in over ND they would just get pumped by 50 instead of ND getting pumped by 30.

OSU - Clemson will be a fun one.
 

Also another point about only picking conference champions and recurring it is that completely devalues the non conference games. Why would you ever schedule a marquee non con matchup if all you have to do is win your conference and your in? Under that scenario OSU could schedule and beat Alabama, Clemson and ND and Penn State could lose to Akron, Umass and Toledo. Then if a 3 loss PSU runs the table, beats OSU and wins the big Ten while OSU only loses that one game with 3 major non con wins, PSU gets in over them?

Or if Northwestern lucks out and wins the west with only a 5-4 conference record and 5-7 overall record and beats OSU who went 12-0 in the regular season then Northwestern gets in just because they won the Big Ten? That shouldn't happen and is the reason why OSU got in over PSU in 2014 which was the right call and they won the whole thing that year.

I know those two hypothetical scenarios that I used are rather extreme but they are good reasons why the committee should not view winning your conference as an end all be all, it should be the 4 best teams regardless of conference and regardless of whether you won your conference.
 

If you devalue non conf games, I would play St Thomas and Iowa State very often like every year because I think those could turn into fun rivalries over time even if the games didn't mean much.
 

bonin21 said:
If you devalue non conf games, I would play St Thomas and Iowa State very often like every year because I think those could turn into fun rivalries over time even if the games didn't mean much.
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I think that would be extremely boring (UST)
Or really annoying (ISU)

I kind like what we have been doing playing some diverse opponents:
Oregon state
USC
Cal (and future)
Air Force
Mississippi state (future)
Colorado (future)
bYu (canceled)
N Carolina (future)
 


With a COVID shortened season for almost every team, you could easily "test" an expanded format this year without the argument of adding extra games.
 

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