What are we freaking out about here?

[hyaluronic]

MBA

This loss was akin to last year's Michigan loss. We came out flat to a bad team and lost the game as a result. I was seriously bummed after that one as well. I can accept not winning a game we're expected to lose for a few years, as long as we don't lose games we're expected to win. That was my problem last year and my problem with the loss against Illinois. We didn't lose due to a talent deficit; we lost due to preparation in the game plan and mental state.

I agree with your sentiments for the most part in this post. Both Illinois and Michigan came into those games playing (mostly) poor football. However, both teams were significantly under performing their talent level. Both teams had more talent than the Gophers, and both years that scared me to death heading into each game. Both years I saw blowouts in either direction being as likely as a close game in either direction. For once, I feel motivated to back up my ramblings with mild research, so here's the recruiting rankings from Rivals for each team '05 classes to '09 classes

2004 Mch 5, Minn 58 (Illinois '04 class is virtually irrelevant)
2005 Mch 6, Ill 51, Minn 55
2006 Mch 13, Ill 30 (tied), Minn 63
2007 Mch 12, Ill 20, Minn 57
2008 Mch 10, Ill 23, Minn 17
2009 Ill 35, Minn 39 (Mich '09 class is irrelevant)

Michigan kicked our butts in recruiting every year. In '05, '08, and '09 MN and Illinois had similar classes, but in '06 and '07 Illinois' classes significantly outperformed ours. Those happen to be their upperclassmen this season, or at worst RS sophomores. Recruiting isn't everything - but it certainly does have a positive correlation with success, and I'm guessing an even higher correlation with potential.

 

[sfbadger]

Gopher "fans" should not be freaking out. They should be chagrined, chastised, ashamed, disgruntled, reproached... well, you get the picture.

Here's the pre-season predictions from Gopher Hole:
http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showpost.php?p=80578&postcount=2

The "fans" here predicted an average of 7.48 wins, bowl win excluded (stop laughing). This is, of course, impossible to acheive at this point.

If the Gophers finish 7-5, that will only meet or exceed 57% of the predictions.
If, as is more likely, the Gophers finish 6-6, that meets or exceeds 26% of the predictions.

I especially like the 91.8% who thought that the Gophers would beat the Badgers.

So, what can we conclude from this? The average Gopher fan is unreasonably optimistic. Delusionally so, when it comes to the Badgers.

Best of luck against the mighty Jackrabbits.

 

[hyaluronic]

I predicted a win against the Badgers, a loss to Michigan State, and a win against Illinois. I expected all to be close games that could go either way. The rest I have predicted accurately. Sure, I expected 7-5, but considered anywhere between 5-7 to 8-4 to be a very realistic possibility. Nice try, though.

 

[Khaliq]

Gopher "fans" should not be freaking out. They should be chagrined, chastised, ashamed, disgruntled, reproached... well, you get the picture.

Here's the pre-season predictions from Gopher Hole:
http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showpost.php?p=80578&postcount=2

The "fans" here predicted an average of 7.48 wins, bowl win excluded (stop laughing). This is, of course, impossible to acheive at this point.

If the Gophers finish 7-5, that will only meet or exceed 57% of the predictions.
If, as is more likely, the Gophers finish 6-6, that meets or exceeds 26% of the predictions.

I especially like the 91.8% who thought that the Gophers would beat the Badgers.

So, what can we conclude from this? The average Gopher fan is unreasonably optimistic. Delusionally so, when it comes to the Badgers.

Best of luck against the mighty Jackrabbits.

where do you people come from and how can we send you back

 

[NewEngland_Gold]

Gopher "fans" should not be freaking out. They should be chagrined, chastised, ashamed, disgruntled, reproached... well, you get the picture.

Here's the pre-season predictions from Gopher Hole:
http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showpost.php?p=80578&postcount=2

The "fans" here predicted an average of 7.48 wins, bowl win excluded (stop laughing). This is, of course, impossible to acheive at this point.

If the Gophers finish 7-5, that will only meet or exceed 57% of the predictions.
If, as is more likely, the Gophers finish 6-6, that meets or exceeds 26% of the predictions.

I especially like the 91.8% who thought that the Gophers would beat the Badgers.

So, what can we conclude from this? The average Gopher fan is unreasonably optimistic. Delusionally so, when it comes to the Badgers.

Best of luck against the mighty Jackrabbits.

Troll-O-Meter Readings

Repugnance Level: Unusually High
Hostility Level: Extremely High
Anger Level: Very High
Insecurity Level: Very High
Wit Level: Unusually Low

 

[GO4FAN65]

see that is our defeatist attitude her

IMO Mason was the rebuilding coach and he did a damn good job. The coach that replaced him should have came in ready to win the big ten not start from scratch. it speaks volumes that he could only pull off one win his first year.

The players Mason left here, especially after the four 'get her drunk and screw her' guys were canned, was the most miserable group of young or no-talent players ever assembled. If he did any rebuilding it sure as hell wasn't evident with the 2007 squad. I predicted they wouldn't win a game and they almost didn't. Brewster inherited a worse mess from Mason than Mason did from Wacker.

 

[GoGophers2005]

to me its irrelevent if mason left the cupboard bare or not. we totally changed schemes and guys that were entrenched as true big ten players were going to have some problems adjusting no matter what. plus we lost some depth with losing players to the rape thing. brew had every right to change the teams schemes to whatever he wanted to. plus we started a redshirt freshman at qb. we lost 4 or 5 games by a total of like 10 points, but a loss is still a loss. i dont blame brew for our 1 win season and i certainly dont blame mason.

did lloyd carr leave the cupboard bare when he left? nope....just a total change of schemes.

 

[Maximus]

This year we're probably going to end up 6-6 against a much, much harder schedule. IMHO an improvement over last year's 7-5.

How is this a harder schedule? Michigan State isn't better than last year. Illinois was a two-win team after many said they were the league's sleeper. Wisconsin was completely beatable. California has lost three games by an average of 27 points.

 

[Hates Monikers]

How is this a harder schedule? Michigan State isn't better than last year. Illinois was a two-win team after many said they were the league's sleeper. Wisconsin was completely beatable. California has lost three games by an average of 27 points.

Michigan State replaced Indiana. Penn State replaced Michigan. Cal replaced the likes of Florida Atlanatic. Even Air Force is a better non-conference opponent, albeit one we need to beat. It's a tougher schedule.

Is it an excuse to finish 6-6? Hell no. We slept through the first half of the Illinois game. We pooped our pants twice inside the five yard-line against Wisconsin in a game we could've won. We should be looking at 8-4 with a chance to make it even better by winning at Iowa.

 

[Monty519]

How is this a harder schedule? Michigan State isn't better than last year. Illinois was a two-win team after many said they were the league's sleeper. Wisconsin was completely beatable. California has lost three games by an average of 27 points.

Do you remember who we beat last year? Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, Florida Atlantic, a terrible Indiana squad, a terrible Purdue team, and an average at best Illinois team.

This year, a poor Syracuse team, a decent Air Force team, a very solid Northwestern team on the road, a better but still blah Purdue team, and also Michigan State, who may be down from their expectation, but was probably still better than any of our wins from last year. We've beaten better teams this year, plain and simple. That's improvement and you can't deny that. Last year, we had one win that could be considered "decent", and that was beating Illinois. This year, we have several of those wins.

Next year, I hope we have even more of those wins.

 

[MBAGuy]

How is this a harder schedule? Michigan State isn't better than last year. Illinois was a two-win team after many said they were the league's sleeper. Wisconsin was completely beatable. California has lost three games by an average of 27 points.

This year's schedule is ranked the 18th most difficult, according to Sagarin. Last year's was 79th.

Facts suck, huh?

 

[dpodoll68]

How is this a harder schedule? Michigan State isn't better than last year. Illinois was a two-win team after many said they were the league's sleeper. Wisconsin was completely beatable. California has lost three games by an average of 27 points.

SDSU > Montana St.
Cal > Florida Atlantic
Air Force > either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois

Syracuse is not very good. So, at worst, at least 3 of our 4 non-cons were schedule upgrades.

Our 2008 Big Ten opponents were 50-50 (.500) overall, and 28-36 (.438) in-conference.

Our 2009 Big Ten opponents are 50-40 (.556) overall, and 29-20 (.592) in-conference.

We missed out on the co-#1 and #3 teams in the Big Ten in 2008.

We miss out on the #10 and #11 teams in the Big Ten in 2009.

We played five sub-.500 teams (in-conference) in 2008.

We have played one sub-.500 team (in-conference) in 2009 - Illinois.

I don't see how a sober analysis of the facts can yield any conviction other than one that our schedule is drastically better than last year.

 

[Maximus]

This year's schedule is ranked the 18th most difficult, according to Sagarin. Last year's was 79th.

Facts suck, huh?

When people were predicting 6-7 wins it was based on Michigan State building on a 9 win season, Illinois regaining its 2007 form and California being a top 15 team.

Being 5-5 is not progress and a 7th-8th place finish in a horse-sh** Big Ten is not progress.

 

[lakesgopher]

Um.....

you can't expect the same from our program as ohio st! they have established great recruiting and depth and we aren't there yet! we are building to win consistently, then a big ten title, then a jan bowl game! ohio st has the best recruits in the big ten, they have a much bigger fan base, they have more financial support, they have more of everything compared to minny. by no means can we expect the same out of our program as ohio st. not yet anyways!

 

[MBAGuy]

When people were predicting 6-7 wins it was based on Michigan State building on a 9 win season, Illinois regaining its 2007 form and California being a top 15 team.

Being 5-5 is not progress and a 7th-8th place finish in a horse-sh** Big Ten is not progress.

People that ignore empirical proof are fun. You don't believe in dinosaurs either, do you?

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Bingo.

For the younger/newer fans, I think it is simply a case of their expectations for immediate gratification. Their generation rarely had to wait for anything they wanted because their baby-boomer parents provided it to them with as much immediacy as was possible.

You make a great point.

When I see the mass hysteria on this board, particularly after a loss, I remind myself that a huge portion of the board is under the age of 26 or 28. In a lot of the mgmt training classes I've had, it's clearly illustrated that the 20-somethings and under of today are indoctrinated into a NOW, NOW, NOW mentality. Not necessarily their fault, it's just the way they've been brought up.

Two things in addition;

1) Many tend to forget WHEN you play somebody, not just WHO you play. At the time the Gophers played Cal, they were a top 6-7 team with a guy that was at the time a Heismann front runner. They lost a couple of games and are clearly mailing it in NOW.

Conversely, we played an Illinois team coming off a BIG win (for them) over Michigan. If Illinois runs the table and becomes bowl eligible, does that win look as bad as it does now? No doubt though, the Gophers SHOULD have beaten Illinois. Without question.

2) I'm amazed at the number of poeple who fail to recognize the impact of coaching staff changes. The defense is playing under it's THIRD defensive coordinator in 3 years while the offense underwent a complete overhaul with the hiring of Fisch. Do some of you really NOT understand how significant a change that is? I just refuse to believe people are that ignorant but....

If you don't think changing coordinators make a big difference, take a look and see how USC is enjoying life without Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian.

 

[Monty519]

When people were predicting 6-7 wins it was based on Michigan State building on a 9 win season, Illinois regaining its 2007 form and California being a top 15 team.

Being 5-5 is not progress and a 7th-8th place finish in a horse-sh** Big Ten is not progress.

Just because it isn't as good as expected, doesn't mean it's not infinitely better than last year's schedule. And really, despite the three teams above not meeting all expectations, it is a darn good schedule. You also have Purdue being better than expected, Wisconsin being better than expected, and then there's Air Force, who probably is underrated as an opponent this year. They lost to us, and then two of their three losses are by less than a score to top 20 teams in TCU and Utah. Plus a tough OT loss @ Navy. You just can't find the depth of quality of opponents that we've had this year compared to last year's schedule.

 

[MNCH]

Are we all expecting a Rose Bowl or BCS birth or something? We've been competitive in every game besides the road trip to Ohio State during what could be said to be the toughest schedule in the history of Gopher football. We have a beautiful new stadium that will do nothing but positive things for this team. We are finally on an even playing field with the rest of the Big Ten. Sure it would be nice to be 7-2 and heading to a nice bowl, but to me this season is exactly what I was expecting.

Look at other coaches in their 3rd year, guys with a much higher profile (and salary) than Brew...
Tom O'Brien NC State 5-7, 6-7, 4-5
Dennis Erickson ASU 10-3, 5-7, 4-5
Steve Kragthorpe Louisville 6-6, 5-7, 3-6
Butch Davis UNC 4-8, 8-5, 6-3 (2-3 in ACC)
Mark Dantonio MSU 7-6, 9-4, 5-5
Brew 1-11, 7-6, 5-5

Not exactly stellar!


Other coaches?
UCLA and Neuhiesel haven't come close to expectations.
Michigan and Rodriguez?
Colorado and Hawkins
Virginia and Groh
Florida St. and Bowden

The answer isn't another coach. I believe keeping our coordinators, especially Ronnie Lee and Fisch in place are crucial. We need consistency with our coaches and I believe you will continue to see improvement in year 4 and year 5.

You neglected to mention a few coaches in the 2007 Class:

- Nick Saban 9-0. Ranked #3.
- Brian Kelly 9-0. Ranked #5.
- Randy Shannon 7-2. Ranked #12.
- Jim Harbaugh 6-3. Ranked #25.
- Butch Jones 8-2

 

[91 CLA Grad]

You neglected to mention a few coaches in the 2007 Class:

- Nick Saban 9-0. Ranked #3.
- Brian Kelly 9-0. Ranked #5.
- Randy Shannon 7-2. Ranked #12.
- Jim Harbaugh 6-3. Ranked #25.
- Butch Jones 8-2

A bit apples & oranges if you ask me.

With the exception of Jones (maybe, don't know much about CMU to be honest), these are coaches who moved into programs that were in much better shape than Minnesota. A bad year for Miami or Bama would be a phenominally good year for the Gophs.

We've been mediocre or worse for a very long time, which makes coming here less appealing for both the top-flight coaches and players. It'll take time and consistently better performance on the field over multiple seasons to erase that.

 

[GopherGod]

A bit apples & oranges if you ask me.

With the exception of Jones (maybe, don't know much about CMU to be honest), these are coaches who moved into programs that were in much better shape than Minnesota. A bad year for Miami or Bama would be a phenominally good year for the Gophs.

We've been mediocre or worse for a very long time, which makes coming here less appealing for both the top-flight coaches and players. It'll take time and consistently better performance on the field over multiple seasons to erase that.

Stanford was not in better shape than Minnesota. They had worse on field performance and have tougher academic standards to deal with in recruiting.

 

[GopherGod]

This year's schedule is ranked the 18th most difficult, according to Sagarin. Last year's was 79th.

Facts suck, huh?

I agree the schedule is tougher this year but I wouldn't put a ton of credibility in the Sagarin rankings to prove that point, imo. Sagarin prior to last weekend had Iowa as the # 1 ranked team in the country if I recall correctly and I don't know anyone that would have agreed with that.

 

[Goldmember]

A bad year for Miami or Bama would be a phenominally good year for the Gophs.

We've been mediocre or worse for a very long time, which makes coming here less appealing for both the top-flight coaches and players. It'll take time and consistently better performance on the field over multiple seasons to erase that.

Not to pick on you.... but I think this sentiment is the problem Gopher football has with its fan base.

What do you consider mediocre? What do you consider bad? The fanbase will never agree on what that is, becuase most who cite mediocrity as a reason for disintrest don't even know themselves how they would define it as it pertains to a college football program. Your quote is proof positive of this.

A bad year for Miami or Bama would be a phonominally good year for the Gophs? Really??????????????????????????????

THE GOPHERS BEAT ALABAMA IN A F'N BOWL GAME and all the people who "demand excellence" didn't care... and many didn't watch or notice. And the best part is... this wasn't the Gopher's best bowl game win in the last ten years. That would be the Sun Bowl (same level as the Gator Bowl, which is a NYD-bowl) against Oregon (preseason favorite of many to win the NC that year).

The idea that appealing to fair-weather fans is going to be what saves Gopher football is completely idiotic. Fair weather fans don't know the difference between good and bad, and they assume Alabama has never been 6-6.

 

[MNCH]

A bit apples & oranges if you ask me.

With the exception of Jones (maybe, don't know much about CMU to be honest), these are coaches who moved into programs that were in much better shape than Minnesota. A bad year for Miami or Bama would be a phenominally good year for the Gophs.

We've been mediocre or worse for a very long time, which makes coming here less appealing for both the top-flight coaches and players. It'll take time and consistently better performance on the field over multiple seasons to erase that.

- Prior to Nick Saban, Mike Shula was 26-23 in four seasons at Alabama.

- Prior to Jim Harbaugh, Walt Harris was 6-17 in two seasons at Stanford.

 

[dpodoll68]

I agree the schedule is tougher this year but I wouldn't put a ton of credibility in the Sagarin rankings to prove that point, imo. Sagarin prior to last weekend had Iowa as the # 1 ranked team in the country if I recall correctly and I don't know anyone that would have agreed with that.

I don't know anyone either, except for the computer rankings that make up the BCS.