Assuming the loser finishes 11-1, I don't think the loser of MSU/OSU is out of it as long as it's a close game. Too many things can happen in the following 2 weeks. Agree that it would be difficult for the loser to make it, but MSU would still have a shot to get to the B1G title game if Michigan knocked off OSU, creating a 3-way B1G East tie. If Florida State beats Clemson and Stanford & Utah both lose a 2nd game (very possible), I think that really opens up the possibility of a conference getting 2 teams in the playoff, mostly likely the B1G or Big XII.
Notre Dame is the X factor. Its schedule is plenty strong down the stretch (@ Temple, @ Pitt, @ Stanford). If the Irish finish 11-1 they'll have a legit case to be selected, especially if Clemson continues to roll.