The Gophers should win the next three games - agree or disagree?

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Clyde Tester

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Much is being made of Doogie's declaration that anything short of three wins in the next three wins would be a disappointment. I happen to strongly agree with his assessment and am curious as to why some seem to disagree...

- Based on season-to-date performance I believe the Gophers should be considered a better team than Northwestern, Wisconsin and Purdue. Point spread this week aside, given the way Syracuse beat NW (on the road), does anyone here want to make the case that Northwestern has a better team than the Gophers? Same for Wisconsin - how can they be considered a better team at this point? Purdue just lost to Northern Illinois - can they be called better than the Gophers who stuck with Cal for over 3 quarters?

- If the Gophers do lose one of the next three games, is there anyone here who won't be VERY disappointed? If expecting a win against three seemingly inferior teams is setting expectations too high, what sort of expectations do you have? If not now, when can you EVER have high expectations of this team?

- Coming off of a seven win season, the only way for Brewster to improve upon that record is to win the next three OR win either @ PSU or @ OSU or @ Iowa (assuming wins v. Mich St and Illinois - which is the same as assuming wins v our next 3 opponents IMO - those wins should be expected). Does that seem like the right path to 8 wins - to rely on away games against better opposition?

So I'm with Doogie on this one - the next three games SHOULD be wins for the Gophers - anything less than that will be disappointing. If fans really believe in this team, how can they not expect that? If you don't believe three wins is a realistic expectation, isn't that an admission that you don't think the squad is very good?

All I know is that after the first few weeks of the season it is fair to say that Northwestern, Wisconsin and Purdue are NOT very good football teams. If we can't expect three wins in the next three games then there are problems in Gopher Nation...
 

Agreed.

I like us to go to 5-1, but with the tough closing stretch (outside of SDST) I still see us ending at 7-5. In theory, yes we should beat WIS, PUR, NW, MSU, ILL...but in reality I think we'll drop one of these.

In my opinion, I'd trade one of these as an upset loss for a victory in one of the tough 3 road games left at PSU, OSU, IA.


The expectation must be to win all 3 - the talent is better on our side or even at worst with all 3 of these teams. 2-1 wouldn't be a disaster, but we should all expect 3-0.
 

I expect to win all three. If we don't, we may struggle to reach a bowl game this year. We aren't favored against Northwestern, and we likely won't be against Wisconsin either. But I still think we'll be 5-1 going into our death stretch, and 5-3 going into the home stretch.
 

I don't think the question is so much how we should feel as it is what does it mean for the program. We should be dissapointed if we lose one. We are improved and have that sneaky dark horse didn't see that comin' chance at making something really good happen.

We should also be dissapointed if we lose any game we have a strong chance of winning.

The real question is what does it mean if we don't win all three.

From a statistical POV it's highly unlikely that we'll be either 3-0 or 0-3. It's very difficult win three toss ups, even as slight favorites in each. And let's be clear we are not favorites and rightfully so if you take off your maroon glasses for a second (put them right back on). It does not mean anything negative if we fail to win all three.

So for me, it's not so much how we feel but what conclusions we draw from it. I've said it before, this year is not about the record it's about how well we compete and grow as a program. With this schedule we could be much better and still not make a bowl. That was true before the season and it is true now, nothing has changed from that analysis.
 

Even if we have an 80% chance of winning each game, that only comes out to a 50% chance of winning all three. ( 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = .051) We have a good chance of winning all three, but if we lose one, it won't be pitchforks and torches time.

Besides, I'm focused on this week's game right now.
 


I think we should have beaten Cal. But what does it mean to say that we should expect to win? What are the consequences of failing that goal? Disappointment certainly, but should Brew be fired? What if we go 2-1 but steal one against PSU or OSU? It's a foolish exercise. I'd be happy if the team played better in Nov than Sept for the first time in a decade. And I think Brew should be extended if they get to a bowl game this year.
 

Schnoodler said:
From a statistical POV it's highly unlikely that we'll be either 3-0 or 0-3. It's very difficult win three toss ups, even as slight favorites in each. And let's be clear we are not favorites and rightfully so...
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Why are the Gophers NOT favored at Northwestern? Serious question - I think they should be. I do NOT see Northwestern as being a better team or even a tossup matchup for the Gohpers - the Gophers should be a 7 point favorite in this game IMO (and I found your Maroon-colored glasses comment funny given that I'm typically called nothing but negative around here!). I don't see anything about Northwestern would led me to believe they are anything but an inferior opponent (as are Wisconsin and Purdue - the Gophers should not be underdogs or even slight favorites in those games - they should be expected to win and do so soundly based on how bad those teams appear to be).

Schnoodler said:
So for me, it's not so much how we feel but what conclusions we draw from it. I've said it before, this year is not about the record it's about how well we compete and grow as a program.
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Well, this might be a topic for another day, but if they don't take a big step forward this year they're in trouble given that they graduate nearly all of their starters after this season.
 

Clyde Tester said:
Why are the Gophers NOT favored at Northwestern? Serious question - I think they should be. I do NOT see Northwestern as being a better team or even a tossup matchup for the Gohpers - the Gophers should be a 7 point favorite in this game IMO (and I found your Maroon-colored glasses comment funny given that I'm typically called nothing but negative around here!). I don't see anything about Northwestern would led me to believe they are anything but an inferior opponent (as are Wisconsin and Purdue - the Gophers should not be underdogs or even slight favorites in those games - they should be expected to win and do so soundly based on how bad those teams appear to be).



Well, this might be a topic for another day, but if they don't take a big step forward this year they're in trouble given that they graduate nearly all of their starters after this season.
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Three points:

First smarter guys than me and you make the line, they're usually right.

Second, did you see the odds of winning all three if we were 80% faves? Do you understand what that means as it pertains to realistic expectations.

Third, Yes that would be a great topic, one I've been considering, I'm kind of waiting a few more games to think too hard, as I want to see how the younger talent emerges. So far we've only seen glimpses.
 

Here's my assesment:

I will be disapointed if Minnesota does not win the next three.

However, if they only dropped one of the next three, my disapointment will not match my disapointment for others who (like it or not) are linked to the program:

1.) The local media. Terrible. Your coverage of the program is shameful and inadequate. You get an D-. Everyday I quit paying attention to more and more local media. And this is why.

2.) The fair weather contingent of fans, who embarass me and my state when they leave early. This was as huge a game as there is in our sport, and it was close until the end. Leaving early is how losers and quitters express their disapointment. It is disgusting to me that some of these weak people may be my co-workers or neighbors some day. The fans get a C-, with the fairweather fans dragging down our overall grade.

In other words, people like you and Doogie should look in the mirror, because I am far more disgraced everytime I have to travel somewhere and I am associated with the "fair-weather" contingent of our fans and our piss-poor, bush league, everything-is-a-reaction-to-Sid-Hartman sports media.

The team is getting a B. They get an A- if they win the next three. They get a B- if they lose one.

Kinda puts things in persepctive, doesn't it?
 



Should they win the next 3...yes. Will they...games are played for a reason and anything can happen. Am I going to tie Brewster's stability of employment...not a chance. The body of work thusfar indicates the program is improving and as they bring in better recruits, will continue to improve.

Right now my #1 issue is with the OL, not the quality of coaching. #2 is the running game.
 

Goldmember said:
Here's my assesment:
In other words, people like you and Doogie should look in the mirror, because I am far more disgraced everytime I have to travel somewhere and I am associated with the "fair-weather" contingent of our fans and our piss-poor, bush league, everything-is-a-reaction-to-Sid-Hartman sports media.
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Seriously, what are you talking about? :confused:

So to make sure I understand, a "fair-weather fan" is one who is hoping for and/or expecting a team to improve along the way and win games they can win. Got it. If that's the definition, I'm guilty as charged. :D
 

I posted this in the Doogie thread but it really belongs in this dialogue as well:

In the next three games:
3 wins - shows progress and reason to believe that this team has improved and is focused. I 100% guarantee that Brewster expects this result of himself and his team - so we as fans should realistically hope (if not expect) this happens.
2 wins - the "typical" result for the program - nothing to question Brew over but nothing to be excited about. An average result.
1 win - serious reason to doubt the direction of the program - Brewster on a spicy chili hot seat
0 wins - I refuse to consider this as an option. ;)
 

I don't think you are giving Northwestern and Wisconsin their due:

Northwestern lost by 3 in the closing seconds against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome (not a home game for Norhtwestern as the original post insinuated). We beat Syracuse by 3 in overtime. That difference could be as subtle as a false start at the wrong time. I think we played the Orange better than NU did, but lets not get carried away in thinking our 3 point OT win is far superior to their 3 point last second loss.

Wisconsin beat a good Fresno State team and a good Northern Illinois team. I think both those programs are on par with Air Force (although maybe easier to prepare for due to their conventionality). Its not like we killed AFA or anything.

Purdue... okay, you've got me there, they just look bad.

I certainly HOPE we win the next 3 in a row. And I would love nothing more than to see our Gophers win the Axe in The Bank.

But I won't view it as a ultimatum type of thing (ie, either the Gophers win the next 3 or else: a) there's no way they'll make a bowl, b) they stink; c) Brewster's contract shouldn't be extended.... etc., etc., etc.).

I expect the Gophers to perform as well on defense as they have for the past 3 weeks and I expect the offense to get better each week. If they do those things, the next 3 weeks should be very exciting to watch and experience.

Go Gophers!
 



Clyde Tester said:
I posted this in the Doogie thread but it really belongs in this dialogue as well:

In the next three games:
3 wins - shows progress and reason to believe that this team has improved and is focused. I 100% guarantee that Brewster expects this result of himself and his team - so we as fans should realistically hope (if not expect) this happens.
2 wins - the "typical" result for the program - nothing to question Brew over but nothing to be excited about. An average result.
1 win - serious reason to doubt the direction of the program - Brewster on a spicy chili hot seat
0 wins - I refuse to consider this as an option. ;)
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+1

I don't think anyone was mad about Doogie's assertion that we should win the next three. It was the other negative stuff that caused the riot.
 

My expectation is to beat Wisconsin this year. Gotta win the trophy game. NW is a tossup, but we need to win both games at home.
 

Go Gophers Rah said:
I don't think you are giving Northwestern and Wisconsin their due:

Northwestern lost by 3 in the closing seconds against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome (not a home game for Norhtwestern as the original post insinuated).
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You are correct - my bad - it was at Cuse. The only thing is that I think our result in Syracuse was disappointing - the 3 point victory should have been a 10+ point win IMO - at least that's what I had hoped to see based solely on the talent level of the two teams. I think the Northwestern/Syracuse result was about as good as NW could ever do in that matchup.
 

I am not sure that is even possible.

Winning all three games in the Big Ten is a stretch when you are not clearly better than any of the teams we are playing. The difference between the Gophers win against Syracuse was one play the same difference in the Syracuse win over Northwestern. Which means we are not clearly better than Northwestern. Not to mention The Gophers weakness on defense is the pass rush and the coverage two things the spread attack of Northwestern could abuse. Throw in the Gophers lack of a running game against what was thought to be a solid Northwestern defense. This game is a toss up game IMO and the Gophers would be getting a very nice win.

Its always nice to think the Gophers should beat Wiscy but the Badgers always play the Gophers tough and it will be a dog fight.

Purdue should be the 1 win of the three games I see coming in. The Gophers could win all three games but they would be doing well to win 2 of 3.
 


WolfontheProwl said:
Winning all three games in the Big Ten is a stretch when you are not clearly better than any of the teams we are playing. The difference between the Gophers win against Syracuse was one play the same difference in the Syracuse win over Northwestern. Which means we are not clearly better than Northwestern. Not to mention The Gophers weakness on defense is the pass rush and the coverage two things the spread attack of Northwestern could abuse. Throw in the Gophers lack of a running game against what was thought to be a solid Northwestern defense. This game is a toss up game IMO and the Gophers would be getting a very nice win.

Its always nice to think the Gophers should beat Wiscy but the Badgers always play the Gophers tough and it will be a dog fight.

Purdue should be the 1 win of the three games I see coming in. The Gophers could win all three games but they would be doing well to win 2 of 3.
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I have your back on that wolf.

3 wins-I would be a very, very happy fan
2 wins-I would be a happy fan assuming we were competitive in the one L.
1 win-I would be a very, very disappoionted fan.
 

Fresno St

If you watched Wiscy and Fresno, if Fresno had a decent passing attack, they win in a walk. They are a running team and Wiscy is much better against the run. Fortunately we should be able to move against the W pass defense which is getting banged up.
 

I agree the Gophers have a very good chance of winning the next three games, and if they don't, I will be disappointed. They have so much experience back this year, and if you can't beat NW, Purdue and Wisconsin this year, when will you? Before the season started, I predicted a very respectable 8-4 record for the Gophers. My predictions have come true so far, although none of the first three games were too hard to predict. But, within that 8-4 record I see for them, I have them winning these next three to get off to a 5-1 start.

Obviously the way they play in these games will also say a lot. It isn't just about the final score. But this program has raised its expectations. It's time for them to deliver. They need to find a way to win each of the next three. It's not like anyone is saying here that if they don't beat Penn State or Ohio State that they'll be disappointed.

I think most were "satisfied" with the hard-fought game against a good Cal team. That won't cut it in these next three.

They have a real opportunity to raise the profile of the program. If they win these next three and go 8-4 and go to a bowl game, that will be big for recruiting when you add it in with the new stadium. If they do that, they'll be ranked for sure and probably place third in the Big Ten. With all that we're losing this year, we need to start restocking the cupboard with some solid recruits, because next year will inevitably be a step back in terms of wins and losses given all the inexperience that will be on the field.
 

You're all nuts.

If we win 2 out of 3 I'll be pretty happy.

Fitzgerald has out-coached Brew every year so far. So how about we finally beat NW for starters?
 

Protect home field

If you want to be taken seriously, you should beat the bad, mediocre, or so-so teams at home EVERY YEAR. Wisconsin and Purdue fall into that category. Brewster is 1-7 in B10 homes so far beating only lowly Indiana last year. If they don't beat both Wisconsin and Purdue this year, they never will and Brewster should be shown the door....
 

If we win this weekend I'll be disappointed if we don't win the next two and complete the 3-0. The game this weekend is a toss up. We should be able to protect home turf against teams like Wisconsin and Purdue.
 

Art Vandelay said:
If you want to be taken seriously, you should beat the bad, mediocre, or so-so teams at home EVERY YEAR. Wisconsin and Purdue fall into that category. Brewster is 1-7 in B10 homes so far beating only lowly Indiana last year. If they don't beat both Wisconsin and Purdue this year, they never will and Brewster should be shown the door....
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Well, I wouldn't necessarily say that Brewster would deserve to be fired for losing specifically those two games. BUT... if he does lose those two games, that probably means only 2-3 wins max this year for the Gophers, and then, yes, he should - AND WILL - be shown the door.
 

Maybe I have low expectations, but I will be THRILLED if we win 2 of the games as long as one of them is Wisconsin! That would give us 2 solid big ten wins. Until we start beating the bottom teams in the Big Ten on a consistent basis I am not sure where "expectations for the gophers: win the next 3 games" comes from? Of course I thought we would lose to Air Force, so what do I know....
 

Art Vandelay said:
If you want to be taken seriously, you should beat the bad, mediocre, or so-so teams at home EVERY YEAR. Wisconsin and Purdue fall into that category. Brewster is 1-7 in B10 homes so far beating only lowly Indiana last year. If they don't beat both Wisconsin and Purdue this year, they never will and Brewster should be shown the door....
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Correction: Brewster's lone BTen road win was @Purdue. The Indiana victory was a home game.
 



Art Vandelay said:
I'm talking about HOME games. Pasadena Brew is 1-7 at home in B10 games thus far.
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Brewster hasn't played a Big Ten home game. He's played them on the road and at a neutral site, the Vikings home field in Minneapolis.
 

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