Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
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Good morning Holers! We're back with another week of Sagarin Predictions. As mentioned in last week's post, I'm going to post three lines this year - the GOLDEN_MEAN spreads, the PREDICTOR spreads, and the newly unveiled RECENT spreads, found here.
Last week, the formula predicted a +13.5 spread - which we were able to cover. Played this week, the formulas would predict anywhere from a 10 to a 14.5 point spread against TCU at home.
Things haven't really changed too much after the first week. Some teams dropped a bit (Michigan), some improved slightly (Northwestern) ... but things went more or less as expected for the majority of our opponents.
The somewhat good news, then, is that we have a lot of games that are predicted to be close - Colorado State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa - all within a reasonable "toss-up" range at the moment. In fact, the only games that seem like complete mismatches on our schedule the rest of the way include Ohio, Kent State (in favor of the Gophers) and Ohio State (in favor of the Buckeyes).
The other good news is that one of the models really does favor us. The PREDICTOR has us as TD favorites this weekend, slight favorites against Nebraska and Michigan, and within 4 points of the Badgers to end the season. We'll see if it's so predictive by the end of the year.
Things will continue to come into focus as the season moves ahead. Thanks for reading!
Last week's post can be found here.
vs TCU L
@ Colorado State (-5, -7.5, -5)
vs Kent State (-26, -33, -24.5)
vs Ohio (-16.5, -19, -18)
@ Northwestern (+5, +4, +2.5)
@ Purdue (-9.5, -10, -9)
vs Nebraska (PICK, -2.5, +1.5)
vs Michigan (-2.5, -3.5, -1.5)
@ Ohio State (+19.5, +17, +18.5)
@ Iowa (+5, +3, +4)
vs Illinois (-6.5, -3.5, -8.5)
vs Wisconsin (+7, +4, +8)
Predicted Record [based on an average of the three models] 7-5 (4-4)
Likely wins (>6 point difference [average] in favor of Minnesota): vs Kent State, vs Ohio, @ Purdue, vs Illinois
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points [average]): @ Colorado State, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, @ Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference [average] in favor of opponent): @ Ohio State, vs Wisconsin
Last week, the formula predicted a +13.5 spread - which we were able to cover. Played this week, the formulas would predict anywhere from a 10 to a 14.5 point spread against TCU at home.
Things haven't really changed too much after the first week. Some teams dropped a bit (Michigan), some improved slightly (Northwestern) ... but things went more or less as expected for the majority of our opponents.
The somewhat good news, then, is that we have a lot of games that are predicted to be close - Colorado State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa - all within a reasonable "toss-up" range at the moment. In fact, the only games that seem like complete mismatches on our schedule the rest of the way include Ohio, Kent State (in favor of the Gophers) and Ohio State (in favor of the Buckeyes).
The other good news is that one of the models really does favor us. The PREDICTOR has us as TD favorites this weekend, slight favorites against Nebraska and Michigan, and within 4 points of the Badgers to end the season. We'll see if it's so predictive by the end of the year.
Things will continue to come into focus as the season moves ahead. Thanks for reading!
Last week's post can be found here.
vs TCU L
@ Colorado State (-5, -7.5, -5)
vs Kent State (-26, -33, -24.5)
vs Ohio (-16.5, -19, -18)
@ Northwestern (+5, +4, +2.5)
@ Purdue (-9.5, -10, -9)
vs Nebraska (PICK, -2.5, +1.5)
vs Michigan (-2.5, -3.5, -1.5)
@ Ohio State (+19.5, +17, +18.5)
@ Iowa (+5, +3, +4)
vs Illinois (-6.5, -3.5, -8.5)
vs Wisconsin (+7, +4, +8)
Predicted Record [based on an average of the three models] 7-5 (4-4)
Likely wins (>6 point difference [average] in favor of Minnesota): vs Kent State, vs Ohio, @ Purdue, vs Illinois
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points [average]): @ Colorado State, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, @ Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference [average] in favor of opponent): @ Ohio State, vs Wisconsin