RPI jump

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Gopherholefan

Gopherholefan

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Anybody know or have any guesses as to how big (if any) of a jump we would take in the RPI with a win tonight?? I would guess a couple spots being that its a road game. Although Michigan's RPI is pretty bad.
 

GHF

Gopherholefan said:
Anybody know or have any guesses as to how big (if any) of a jump we would take in the RPI with a win tonight?? I would guess a couple spots being that its a road game. Although Michigan's RPI is pretty bad.
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We are at #70 and Michigan is at #149 per realtime.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_big10_Men.html

My guess is beating Michigan tonight would get us to #69 if we are lucky!

Beating Michigan (#149) and Iowa (#197) will not make our RPI worth a crap, IMHO.

A serious run in the BTT is the only hope of getting a reasonable RPI by Selection Sunday.

Sad but true.
 

Maybe 2 or 3 just because it's a road game. At this point, it's more about the teams in front of you losing.
 

Someone posted on a similar thread that how a team played in it's 'last ten games' is no longer taken into consideration by the selection committee. Is this official or unofficial.
 

Our strength of schedule will drop slightly from about .5625 to about .5597 but our winning percentage would go from .6071 to .6207 with a win. That would bring our rpi from .5646 to .5748which would be good for an rpi ranking around 58, assuming no one else moves.
 


vaporboy said:
Our strength of schedule will drop slightly from about .5625 to about .5597 but our winning percentage would go from .6071 to .6207 with a win. That would bring our rpi from .5646 to .5748which would be good for an rpi ranking around 58, assuming no one else moves.
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Count me as impressed. You seem to have the numbers down - but do I understand you to say that we will go from an RPI ranking of 70 to an RPI ranking of 58 IF we win tonight and no one else moves?
 

vaporboy said:
Our strength of schedule will drop slightly from about .5625 to about .5597 but our winning percentage would go from .6071 to .6207 with a win. That would bring our rpi from .5646 to .5748which would be good for an rpi ranking around 58, assuming no one else moves.
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Not to question your math as I've never broken down the formula, but I highly doubt we will jump 12 spots. We only jumped 10 winning at Illinois. I'd say 3-5 spots at most. As others mentioned it also matters what the teams in that range do tonight, if they play. We've moved up/down 2-3 spots on nights we didn't play at all.
 

Vapor

vaporboy said:
Our strength of schedule will drop slightly from about .5625 to about .5597 but our winning percentage would go from .6071 to .6207 with a win. That would bring our rpi from .5646 to .5748which would be good for an rpi ranking around 58, assuming no one else moves.
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WOW. Do you carry those algorithms around in your head?

:)
 

The math isn't right. I think he assumed 75% opponents' win% + 25% your win%...it's 25% your win%, 50% opponents' win%, 25% opponents' opponents' win%. Not sure if the actual numbers he was using are right.
 



I'd guess Gophs will be #65 or 66 (currently #70 @ CollegeRPI.com) if they win. But then I think we'll probably go up again even if we beat Iowa.
 

Correct RC, I was only approximating, but our opponents opponents (couple hundred teams) records won't move the dial much at this point in the season.
 

RPIforecast.com is my new favorite site that uses the Sagarin predictor to predict RPI's at the end of the season. It does not take into account the conference tournaments at this point.

Final Record Expected RPI Probability

19-11 67.2 57.55%
18-12 77.9 40.19%
17-13 91.5 2.26%
 

RPIForecast DOES include conference tournament forecasts and has for a few months. You just have to click where it says "Forecasts including Conference Tournaments". The best the gophers can do without winning the tournament is to lose in the finals and end up with an RPI around 55 (depending on how many games they play which is based on seeding. Actually, a lower seed would help the RPI in this respect if the Gophers don't get the auto bid because it means one more game).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Minnesota.html
 



Thanks, freakboy. I missed that gigantic link at the top of the page. That page's stats haven't been updated since February 25th, so they don't include the RPI boost from the Illinois Win.
 

RPI is not what they are going to focus on with Gophers. Its obvious our RPI won't be in the 40's or even 50's. However, an RPI in the 60's with finishing the regular season winning 5 of 6 is key. How many bubble teams are winning 5 of 6 to finish the year?

Since we are being compared with other teams that have had troubles this year, I really like our chances if we win our last two games and don't fall on our face in the BTT.
 

Rouser said:
RPI is not what they are going to focus on with Gophers. Its obvious our RPI won't be in the 40's or even 50's. However, an RPI in the 60's with finishing the regular season winning 5 of 6 is key. How many bubble teams are winning 5 of 6 to finish the year?

Since we are being compared with other teams that have had troubles this year, I really like our chances if we win our last two games and don't fall on our face in the BTT.
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+19
 

I would be curious to know what Wisconsin's RPI was last year. Weren't they literally the last team in?
 

Badgers and Arizona

Based on seeding (both #12 seeds), the Badgers and Arizona were the final two at-larges last season. As a comparison. ...

Badgers had RPI of #45 with SOS of #16. They had 4 top-50 wins with a 6-9 road/neutral record.

Arizona had RPI of #62 with SOS of #34. They had 6 top-50 wins with a 5-10 road/neutral record.

Of note, both lost their first game at their conference tournament, but they combined to win 3 games in the NCAAs.

Currently Gophers' numbers are 70 and 42. Gophs have 3 top-50 wins with a 4-8 road/neutral record.
 

Thanks SS. I'm not sure if a year to year correlation can be made between us/Arizona/Wisconsin, but it seems, on some level, a baseline I guess.
 

True. The bubble varies from year to year, but last year's numbers for Bucky & 'Zona can at least serve as a kind of measuring stick.
 

Using them as a measuring stick, it just verifies what we have all been saying. Gophers absolutely need to win the next two games and at the very least get one more top 50 win (1-4 seed) in the Big-Ten tournament to be legitimate bubble factors.
 

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