Results

[benlaur]

There is one barometer to measure highly compensated coaches: results.

Results off the court and results on the court. What could have been really has no place in the discussion. If everyone was paid on what could have been, compensation is more open for interpreation. What has been, what is and what will be is the fairest measure. Based on actual results, past years, current year and path, what are people's thoughts?

 

[bga1]

There is one barometer to measure highly compensated coaches: results.

Results off the court and results on the court. What could have been really has no place in the discussion. If everyone was paid on what could have been, compensation is more open for interpreation. What has been, what is and what will be is the fairest measure. Based on actual results, past years, current year and path, what are people's thoughts?

I disagree with your premise. It is obvious that your intention is to eliminate bad luck from the analysis.
If you want, you can do that. But to say that it has no place in the discussion is false. It only has no place in the discussion from your point of view and with those of like opinion.

The AD is going to look at the extenuating circumstances and factor them in. He is also going to look at the likelihood that the coach and staff are going to continue to improve.

His first three years he was 16-38 in the Big Ten- bad news
His next three years he was 24-32 in the Big Ten- that is right at the historical program average and a big improvement from years 1-3.
Adjust his last three years for bad luck and he had a roster that had a MINIMUM 12-6 record before Lynch, Coffey, and others all went down and decimated the squad. Recast that season to 12-6 and you are looking at 32-25 for the last three years and three straight NCAAs- with just reasonable luck.

In any event, the AD is going to look at the coach and staff as HE sees it and try to determine if he is likely to improve the situation by hiring a new guy. If he does, then Pitino will be gone. If he doesn't then he stays.

Let's see where the season takes us. My guess is that anything less than 9-11 and a sense that the team is improving through the year and he is in trouble. 9-11 or better and he probably stays. We could still be very good next year. If we fire the coach- you are looking at starting over.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I disagree with your premise. It is obvious that your intention is to eliminate bad luck from the analysis.
If you want, you can do that. But to say that it has no place in the discussion is false. It only has no place in the discussion from your point of view and with those of like opinion.

The AD is going to look at the extenuating circumstances and factor them in. He is also going to look at the likelihood that the coach and staff are going to continue to improve.

His first three years he was 16-38 in the Big Ten- bad news
His next three years he was 24-32 in the Big Ten- that is right at the historical program average and a big improvement from years 1-3.
Adjust his last three years for bad luck and he had a roster that had a MINIMUM 12-6 record before Lynch, Coffey, and others all went down and decimated the squad. Recast that season to 12-6 and you are looking at 32-25 for the last three years and three straight NCAAs- with just reasonable luck.

In any event, the AD is going to look at the coach and staff as HE sees it and try to determine if he is likely to improve the situation by hiring a new guy. If he does, then Pitino will be gone. If he doesn't then he stays.

Let's see where the season takes us. My guess is that anything less than 9-11 and a sense that the team is improving through the year and he is in trouble. 9-11 or better and he probably stays. We could still be very good next year. If we fire the coach- you are looking at starting over.

We can all wonder what might have been in 2017/18, but we dont know what would have happened, so to say it was a "minimum 12-6" year as though that is fact is not correct. We looked good some nights, but with Lynch still on the roster we did not look good against Nebraska or Arkansas when we lost those games. Maybe we would have been 12-6, maybe we would have been better, but it is certainly not impossible that we would have went 11-7 or worse.

 

[Gopherfan84]

No one I see happy with the results. It's the idea of what future ones will be is what the discussion needs to be. Richard may not have earned more years after this one, but he has earned this year to continue to prove he's deserving of more time. I still think this team can right the ship and do well in the Big 10. Who scares you besides MSU or OSU? Maryland is a maybe, otherwise 4-12 is a crapshoot this year. This team will defend and I feel the offense gets better (I believe it will) then we have a shot a team being top 6 easily. If it doesn't we finish low (below 8th and under .500) and we should move on.

 

[WoodburyTim]

I disagree with your premise. It is obvious that your intention is to eliminate bad luck from the analysis.
If you want, you can do that. But to say that it has no place in the discussion is false. It only has no place in the discussion from your point of view and with those of like opinion.

The AD is going to look at the extenuating circumstances and factor them in. He is also going to look at the likelihood that the coach and staff are going to continue to improve.

His first three years he was 16-38 in the Big Ten- bad news
His next three years he was 24-32 in the Big Ten- that is right at the historical program average and a big improvement from years 1-3.
Adjust his last three years for bad luck and he had a roster that had a MINIMUM 12-6 record before Lynch, Coffey, and others all went down and decimated the squad. Recast that season to 12-6 and you are looking at 32-25 for the last three years and three straight NCAAs- with just reasonable luck.

In any event, the AD is going to look at the coach and staff as HE sees it and try to determine if he is likely to improve the situation by hiring a new guy. If he does, then Pitino will be gone. If he doesn't then he stays.

Let's see where the season takes us. My guess is that anything less than 9-11 and a sense that the team is improving through the year and he is in trouble. 9-11 or better and he probably stays. We could still be very good next year. If we fire the coach- you are looking at starting over.

I preface this by saying that I am a Pitino supporter and hope he can stick around for years, but the bad luck play just doesn't work. I think I have read all 300 some in depth team previews on Three Man Weave and about half lament the teams bad luck with injuries, transfers, and the like. It is always fan nature to think your team has the absolute worst luck, but the simple fact is most teams can make the same argument. You have to work through unfortunate setbacks. Almost everyone has to. The teams that win and the teams that lose.

 

[bga1]

I preface this by saying that I am a Pitino supporter and hope he can stick around for years, but the bad luck play just doesn't work. I think I have read all 300 some in depth team previews on Three Man Weave and about half lament the teams bad luck with injuries, transfers, and the like. It is always fan nature to think your team has the absolute worst luck, but the simple fact is most teams can make the same argument. You have to work through unfortunate setbacks. Almost everyone has to. The teams that win and the teams that lose.

I get that point of view. That's fine. I am weighing what I think we have for a coach in terms of overall ability right now and what his future is. In order to do so, I am factoring out the anamolies and looking at his trend line. I still think he has a good future, that this year is young and that next year looks more promising. I really like what the staff is doing both on the court and in recruiting. Their activity this year has been amazing so I think he has done the work to upgrade the staff.

The alternative is iffy. If the AD thinks we can do better and absorb the losses that go with switching coaches- then he will do it. I just want to stay positive during the season, as I am sure you do also.

 

[benlaur]

Woodbury Tim, I think you make great points. I think a lot of people would like to see Pitino succeed, much like we would have liked to see his predecessor's succeed. It is still very possible, but you would be crazy not to have a lot of doubt.

BGA, so are you saying we need to take good luck/bad luck into consideration? So has the current coach only had bad luck? Did Tubby have bad luck too? I would argue that anly losing program has had a disproportianate amount of bad luck. Let's hope we get lucky soon.

 

[golfing18now]

Woodbury Tim, I think you make great points. I think a lot of people would like to see Pitino succeed, much like we would have liked to see his predecessor's succeed. It is still very possible, but you would be crazy not to have a lot of doubt.

BGA, so are you saying we need to take good luck/bad luck into consideration? So has the current coach only had bad luck? Did Tubby have bad luck too? I would argue that anly losing program has had a disproportianate amount of bad luck. Let's hope we get lucky soon.

In general, all coaches need to overcome bad breaks, injuries, etc. but the 2017-2018 season was really off the charts. Almost any coach would have struggled under that particular set of circumstances. If you recall....they were 13-3 when the Lynch news broke.

Curry missed 32 games due to injury
Coffey missed 14 games due to injury
Lynch missed 16 games due to his suspension
McBrayer missed 5 games but was playing hurt most of that year, if I recall
Mason missed 1 game but was hobbled the last few games

If 5 of your top 6 players miss this much time, this should be factored in.

Not many of us Pitino backers should make excuses for the other years, but that particular year was really crazy and clearly had a negative impact on the year's results.

 

[bga1]

Tubby had some bad luck- no doubt about it. I still think Tubby was a great coach, but his arc was downward and he was not working much on recruiting. If he had still been bringing in solid classes then no way he gets fired- even though he never once was over .500 in the Big Ten.

Tubby underscores my point about this job. It's tough. Switching coaches makes it tougher. Tubby is an HOF coach that could not win here after he won everywhere else he went.

My point is that I think we should stay positive and we should also realize that the AD WILL consider the luck factor. By the way, I don't count the terrible 2-16 season as unlucky. He recruited a high risk kid in Dorsey and he paid for it. He's gone through that learning curve. There is never a guarantee that kids won't get in trouble but I think Pitino has switched his strategy for the better on recruiting.

I'm not sure why a program hires a thirty year old guy because of his upside and then, once he learns his lessons the hard way and starts to improve, just gives up on him. If this year is bad, he's gone, but if he shows he can make this team compete in the Big Ten in a way that gives the AD confidence in the future...he stays.

 

[bga1]

In general, all coaches need to overcome bad breaks, injuries, etc. but the 2017-2018 season was really off the charts. Almost any coach would have struggled under that particular set of circumstances. If you recall....they were 13-3 when the Lynch news broke.

Curry missed 32 games due to injury
Coffey missed 14 games due to injury
Lynch missed 16 games due to his suspension
McBrayer missed 5 games but was playing hurt most of that year, if I recall
Mason missed 1 game but was hobbled the last few games

If 5 of your top 6 players miss this much time, this should be factored in.

Not many of us Pitino backers should make excuses for the other years, but that particular year was really crazy and clearly had a negative impact on the year's results.

Spot on. That's the only year I am giving him a pass for bad luck on. Turn that year around and there is no case to fire him. We would be sitting on 3 straight NCAAs...never before done here. That year would have helped recruiting a TON as well.

 

[EG#9]

I really disagree with the "here" qualifier on things. Tubby Smith went to 3 NCAA's in 6 years "here" without doing anything spectacular, without a practice facility, and during a time when Minnesota went through a draught of producing high major basketball talent.

Dan Monson landed local kids "here" and had two winning conference seasons "here" while under sanctions and with a lot of negative publicity to deal with. He still somehow has a better conference record (barely) than Richard Pitino.

As for historical average? Gophers were 28 games above .500 in conference play from 1960-1980. The Gophers were 32 games below .500 in conference play from 1981-2000. All of that below .500 conference play record can be attributed to the first two Clem years(-24) and the first Monson year (-8). Essentially Minnesota has been historically right at .500 in conference play which seems about right for a job that is probably in the middle of the conference. I am not sure any historical average is a great measure for anything as everyone is hired with the idea that they will outperform their predecessor if that predecessor was fired. Everyone is looking to improve. Schools like UConn, Baylor, Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Texas Tech are easy examples of schools that have vastly improved on their historical place. Wisconsin went from 1973-74 where they went 8-6 in conference play until 1996-1997 where they went 11-7 without a single winning conference season.

 

[scools12]

I disagree with your premise. It is obvious that your intention is to eliminate bad luck from the analysis.
If you want, you can do that. But to say that it has no place in the discussion is false. It only has no place in the discussion from your point of view and with those of like opinion.

The AD is going to look at the extenuating circumstances and factor them in. He is also going to look at the likelihood that the coach and staff are going to continue to improve.

His first three years he was 16-38 in the Big Ten- bad news
His next three years he was 24-32 in the Big Ten- that is right at the historical program average and a big improvement from years 1-3.
Adjust his last three years for bad luck and he had a roster that had a MINIMUM 12-6 record before Lynch, Coffey, and others all went down and decimated the squad. Recast that season to 12-6 and you are looking at 32-25 for the last three years and three straight NCAAs- with just reasonable luck.

In any event, the AD is going to look at the coach and staff as HE sees it and try to determine if he is likely to improve the situation by hiring a new guy. If he does, then Pitino will be gone. If he doesn't then he stays.

Let's see where the season takes us. My guess is that anything less than 9-11 and a sense that the team is improving through the year and he is in trouble. 9-11 or better and he probably stays. We could still be very good next year. If we fire the coach- you are looking at starting over.

I disagree with your premise that you’ve been continually pushing. You can’t state something as fact that it would be 3 straight years of NCAAs. That is no way of knowing how the season that would’ve ended.
Only thing we can state in fact is how it actually ended and not how you hoped it would’ve ended.

 

[Bad Gopher]

Results include attendance and fan enthusiasm, too. From that standpoint we're back to the low ebb years of the Monson tenure. The fans know that 7 years of .364 conference basketball probably means 7 more years of .364 conference basketball. They're not stupid.

 

[bga1]

I disagree with your premise that you’ve been continually pushing. You can’t state something as fact that it would be 3 straight years of NCAAs. That is no way of knowing how the season that would’ve ended.
Only thing we can state in fact is how it actually ended and not how you hoped it would’ve ended.

Ok, that's fine, you have a different viewpoint. We all know that the roster he had was assembled to make a nice run and would have had a really good record. But, as you say, it didn't happen for the reasons that are well documented. Does it make Pitino a worse coach? Nope.

 

[builtbadgers]

Ok, that's fine, you have a different viewpoint. We all know that the roster he had was assembled to make a nice run and would have had a really good record. But, as you say, it didn't happen for the reasons that are well documented. Does it make Pitino a worse coach? Nope.

Do you think he is a top 50 coach ?

 

[bga1]

Do you think he is a top 50 coach ?

Yes. We are digging out of a 40+ year mess here. It is a Big Ten program fighting against some of the best teams in America. Pitino is young and learning but I am very confident he will be successful if given the chance to work through it here. If not- he will be somewhere else. I think if he was coaching at some second tier D1 school at age 38 he would be winning and we might be calling him "Craig Smith". Instead he is cutting his teeth at Minnesota.

I think that the year where we had the disaster with Lynch, Coffey, etc. would have gotten Pitino the recruiting momentum and the support he needed to send this program on an upward trajectory, especially with the improvement in local talent. Instead, that year really hurt him

Again- Clem Haskins, a really good coach, was 39-69 at this juncture and in year 6 he was 5-13. Yeah, he had a rough start and took over a bad situation but also got handed Newbern and Burton in Dutch's final recruiting class so he had building blocks.

Dutcher had the Big Ten championship, was a good coach and recruiter but he mostly struggled other than in the championship year.

Monson- did great a Gonzaga - struggled here.

Tubby - did great everywhere and struggled here- never exceeding .500

I think Pitino is doing a solid job of recruiting in a program that has only really had Humphries in the NBA since the late 90's. Right now there are 39 Big Ten players in the NBA and zero from the Gophers. So he still has work to do to get that type of talent. Oturu is going to make it.

 

[builtbadgers]

Thanks for the answer. Do you think he is one of the best there is ? What if after 4 more years we continue the streak of never being competitive for the conference title ? For the record, i think we should compete for it this year.

 

[leib0039]

I am always interested to hear why people say "well if we fire Pitino we take away any chance of being good next year and now we would be terrible" Is there any reason it is a given? I dont see Oturu (don't tell me he is NBA ready, he is certainly not)/Gabe/Omersa leaving home, I dont see Willis/Carr moving after they already transferred once. Could we lose Mashburn, yah that seems semi likely if we let Pitino go, but we were really counting on him to be a 20ppg guy next year?

Look at Va Tech, lost their coach and I think 5 of their top 6 guys, and are off to a nice 6-1 start with a win over Mich St.

Now, it is certainly no guarantee we would be better but I dont think losing a coach is a 100% death sentence to punting a year.

 

[builtbadgers]

Of course it does not mean a 4 year setback. Setback from what ? The hard part is hiring a great coach. People are stung but always hiring coaches but hiring Fleck was the right thing. If you hire a great coach, you get a culture, a identity and then the winning happens. Real winning. Conference titles, final 4's.

 

[bga1]

Thanks for the answer. Do you think he is one of the best there is ? What if after 4 more years we continue the streak of never being competitive for the conference title ? For the record, i think we should compete for it this year.

No, he currently is not one of the best there is. I think he could be. I think he is improving and at age 38 has a lot of upside. Do you see improvement in what he is doing, assistants, recruiting, etc?

I think we could be better than people think this year. I don't think we have the talent to compete for the title with Maryland, OSU or MSU- no. It would have been a lot more interesting if we had a healthy Curry and Coffey has returned- that's for sure. A lineup of Oturu, Curry, Coffey, Gabe and Carr would have been pretty darn strong.

With this team, we are going to have to win a lot of close games to succeed. We are not going to blow people out.

 

[builtbadgers]

I do see improvements in staff and recruiting. Still very disappointed that 7 years in we do not have one thing we are known for. Could care less about what could be had Coffey stayed. Many programs lose a great deal more than that and move forward with success based on their culture. Examples would be great defense, toughness, efficiency. I could see him becoming a top 50 coach. Hell, he would be a legend around here if he won a single conference title.

 

[cjbfbp]

There is one barometer to measure highly compensated coaches: results.

Results off the court and results on the court. What could have been really has no place in the discussion.

You are 100% correct. Highly compensated coaches should not be treated like normal employees. To earn millions of dollars per year you have to produce. "What could have been" might be a reasonable standard in the early part of a coach's tenure when you haven't enough information to develop a full picture of the coach's potential but, after 6 or 7 years, one has enough data.

There appear to be two types of posters on this site who resist any talk of ending Pitino's tenure and predictably come to his defense:

1) those who have a man crush on him; and

2) those who have a phobia about firing coaches and starting over.

I'm somewhat surprised that the success of the football team and the re-evaluation of what is possible in that sport has failed, at least for many around here, to permeate expectations about what is possible for the basketball program. The U fired a 9-4 football coach after his first full season as a head coach. Before that year, he was part of a coaching staff that brought a pretty fair level of success to the football program. How did that work out? Wonderfully, I'd say. But, for some posters around here, to suggest that we fire a basketball coach with a much poorer overall record of success than the prior football coaching regime (and the prior basketball coaching regime) is unreasonable.

Pitino has completed 6 years here. He's had 3 good years of various degrees and 3 bad years of various degrees. So, half the time he had a good or good enough year and half the time he had a bad or really bad year. This year is the tie-breaker. I'm guessing it won't fall on the good side. So, for those of you who find a 3 to 4 good to bad ratio acceptable, then just come out and say that instead of "Would of...could of...oh, but he's such a cool guy."

 

[dpodoll68]

I am always interested to hear why people say "well if we fire Pitino we take away any chance of being good next year and now we would be terrible" Is there any reason it is a given? I dont see Oturu (don't tell me he is NBA ready, he is certainly not)/Gabe/Omersa leaving home, I dont see Willis/Carr moving after they already transferred once. Could we lose Mashburn, yah that seems semi likely if we let Pitino go, but we were really counting on him to be a 20ppg guy next year?

Look at Va Tech, lost their coach and I think 5 of their top 6 guys, and are off to a nice 6-1 start with a win over Mich St.

Now, it is certainly no guarantee we would be better but I dont think losing a coach is a 100% death sentence to punting a year.

Of course, you are absolutely right. And God forbid we would go backwards from a .364 Big Ten winning percentage. That would be awful.

 

[cjbfbp]

I dont see Oturu (don't tell me he is NBA ready, he is certainly not)

Now, it is certainly no guarantee we would be better but I dont think losing a coach is a 100% death sentence to punting a year.

 

[cjbfbp]

I agree wholeheartedly with your overall post but I wouldn't dismiss Oturu's chances of moving to the next level after this year. If he keeps putting up the kind of numbers he's had early in the season I expect him to test the waters after this year. If he does well enough at the NBA camps he could be gone.

Right now Daniel is 6th in the league in player efficiency rating (29.4), tied for 2nd in blocks per game (3.2), 2nd in rebounds per game (10.8), and 2nd in field goal percentage (.612). According to Sagarin, we've played the second toughest schedule in the league (behind only Mich St) so he's put up these numbers against better competition than most of his peers.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

I agree wholeheartedly with your overall post but I wouldn't dismiss Oturu's chances of moving to the next level after this year. If he keeps putting up the kind of numbers he's had early in the season I expect him to test the waters after this year. If he does well enough at the NBA camps he could be gone.

Right now Daniel is 6th in the league in player efficiency rating (29.4), tied for 2nd in blocks per game (3.2), 2nd in rebounds per game (10.8), and 2nd in field goal percentage (.612). According to Sagarin, we've played the second toughest schedule in the league (behind only Mich St) so he's put up these numbers against better competition than most of his peers.

All of this, plus NBA teams seem willing to invest in a possible project that still needs some work before being fully NBA ready with athletic big men.

 

[Bad Gopher]

Worth noting that Haskins had us in the Sweet 16 in year three after taking over a program that had been bombed back to the stone age in the wake of the Madison scandal. Their best player (Burton) would be a 4-star recruit today; Newbern would be a high-3 or low-4 and was ineligible his freshman year.

That's what you call program building. When it comes to coaches, you know if you have a good one after 3 or 4 years.

 

[nooram]

This Clemson game was fun to be at

 

[bga1]

Worth noting that Haskins had us in the Sweet 16 in year three after taking over a program that had been bombed back to the stone age in the wake of the Madison scandal. Their best player (Burton) would be a 4-star recruit today; Newbern would be a high-3 or low-4 and was ineligible his freshman year.

That's what you call program building. When it comes to coaches, you know if you have a good one after 3 or 4 years.

Dutcher recruited Newbern, Burton and Schick. Nice starting pieces. Clem did a great job coaching them but he got given material to build with.

 

[Parcival]

I disagree with your premise that you’ve been continually pushing. You can’t state something as fact that it would be 3 straight years of NCAAs. That is no way of knowing how the season that would’ve ended.
Only thing we can state in fact is how it actually ended and not how you hoped it would’ve ended.

You need to unfog your Pitino hate glasses. Anyone who watched that 2017/18 team before the injury wave hit knew they were legitimately good enough to win the B1G.

The fact of the matter is that coming into the 2017/18 season Pitino was fresh off a 24-10 season with an 11-7 record in Big Ten play as the 4th seed. They also had just recorded a 2nd straight NCAA appearance as a 5 seed (I was at that game where they lost to a tough, under-seeded Middle Tennessee squad).

Pitino was the 2016-17 Big Ten Coach of the year, Nate Mason was an All-Big Ten First Teamer and Reggie Lynch was the Big Ten Defensive player of the year.

The Gophers started that season as #15 in the country. They were undefeated through the first 9 games and thoroughly dismantled a ranked Alabama squad led by lottery pick Colin Sexton (score was closer than the game indicated) until they lost to #10 Miami at home. They met the eye test and looked like a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten Conference.

Then the team got hit with injuries.

- Reggie Lynch, our Big 10 DPOTY and star rim protector got season a long suspension

- Amir Coffey, the teams 3rd leading scorer, became hampered by a shoulder injury for several games before having to undergo a season-ending surgery on it.

- Dupree Mcbrayer started missing games because of a stress fracture in his shin bone. He was seen wearing a walking boot around campus and couldn't even practice, but still played because Coffey and Lynch were out.

- Nate Mason played 31/32 games during the season but needed to undergo hip surgery accompanied by a lengthy rehab during the offseason.

This program and all its fans got robbed that year by the injury bug and an unfortunate Lynch situation. Had we come out with a REASONABLE conference record of 12-6 and an NCAA appearance (making 3 in a row as of last season) there would be far less posters on this board complaining about Pitino's success.

Pitino hasn't been great. I get that. But he's been on an upward trajectory and I want to see what he does this season and next before making the big decision of firing him and starting the program fresh again. As a matter of personal opinion I think his recruiting has improved drastically in the last several classes and losing the local recruits isn't due to lack of effort on his part.