Recruiting ratings of first round NFL draft picks

[fryguy22]

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1077663


Five 5-stars, Thirteen 4-stars, Seven 3-stars, Six 2-stars, one unranked (out of high school) among the 32 first round NFL draft picks.

Something to keep in mind as we discuss the chances of success for our incoming Gophers- players develop differently and at different times. While it would be great to land the very top ranked players, they often aren't the ones making the most impact a few years down the road.

 

[atsgopher]

I think maybe the results should be weighted a little.

There are roughly 116 schools assuming they all signed 22 kids that year that's 2500 recruits.

However, there are only roughly 20 five stars every year and 150 four stars (less than 1% and 6% of recruits respectively, assuming 2500 recruts) I think the fact that 15% (5-star) and 41% (4-star) of the first round draft picks translates into a fairly decent percentage of recruits came from those deemed the cream of the crop. Granted I am oversimplifying, there are things like underclassman and redshirts that skew the results. Plus the sample is limited to one year.

Ignoring the complications though, it seems to me that if the NFL draft is indicative of a good college player than the recruiting services did a decent job forecasting with their recruit rankings. This of course does not mean they will succeed in the NFL, but they sure did in college (as a group).

 

[50PoundHead]

Not sure what you are driving at. Over half of the first-round picks were 4 or 5 star players. Add in that just under 80% were 3-star and above and it shows that the star system isn't as flawed as a lot of people want it to seem. Talent matters.