Realistic expectations for 2023-24?

[cjbfbp]

That's a LIE.

Penn State has 3 recruits in their 2023 class. 2 are unranked...with no other offers that stand out much. And the other is ranked #90.

Minnesota has Evans ranked #11 and Christie ranked #139.

That's not quite accurate. Yes, our average ranking per recruit for 2023 is higher (significantly I'd say) than theirs (a fact that seems to be either not understood or dishonestly ignored by Wet Blanket and Gopher Weather) but all three of PSU's recruits are ranked by 247 (#71, #181, #189). Being ranked in the 180s might not seem so impressive but Payne was only slightly higher and the remainder of this year's Gopher freshmen were ranked lower.

I think one should strive for accuracy regardless of the side taken in an argument and check your "facts" before posting them. Wet Blanket and Gopher Weather guys may be dumb, or dishonest, or lazy, or sloppy, or some mixture of all of the above, but you should not follow their examples. They're probably irredeemable but you may not be.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

You’re referring to the cumulative number which is how they rank them, not the per average recruit - they have 3 recruits to our 2, so naturally their total is higher than ours.
Our average is 96.16 compared to their average 91.15.

So because they have another recruit, we just throw that player out and don't count them? You think that's more accurate?

Betts should have been in next years class and he's ranked lower than all 3 of Penn St's players. They have 5 players over the last two classes ranked higher than Henley, Carrington, Ola-Joseph, Betts, and a 6th who is ranked about the same as Henley.

They have been recruiting better both in the portal and out of high school than us. That's why Shrewsberry has nearly triple the amount of B1G wins as Ben through 2 seasons.

 

[Gopherfan84]

It is what modern offenses run, but it's not what we run. We're one of the worst P6 teams in the country because we're trying to run an offense from 1993 instead of 2023.

When was Euro ball screen ran in 1993? Come on man, we are bad offensively for skill reasons, not schematic

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

So because they have another recruit, we just throw that player out and don't count them? You think that's more accurate?

Called quality vs. quantity and the point Captain Oblivious was that doesn’t mean their recruits are better, it simply means they have more of them and thus achieve a higher ranking using one metric.

Betts should have been in next years class and he's ranked lower than all 3 of Penn St's players. They have 5 players over the last two classes ranked higher than Henley, Carrington, Ola-Joseph, Betts, and a 6th who is ranked about the same as Henley.

No he shouldn’t be - that’s not how the recruiting services classify (the ones that make income off their posting vs. people on here, like you and me - I can admit when someone knows more than I do, you????)
him AND he is currently a student at The University of Minnesota.

They have been recruiting better both in the portal and out of high school than us. That's why Shrewsberry has nearly triple the amount of B1G wins as Ben through 2 seasons.

Two years, Mr. Petulance - we’ll see where things stand down the road.
And if this is so painful for your delicate constitution, feel free to take a several year sabbatical - we can always get our forecast from a weather APP/the are taking over!

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

So what O sets should we run coach?
@GopherWeatherGuy

Crickets .
Enlighten us, Oracle of Everything!
@GopherWeatherGuy

 

[Gopherfan84]

I would disagree with that, especially at the college level. The lines may get blurred a bit in the pros, but that's mostly because the way the game has changed, most positions can hit an outside shot reliably, and a high percentage of the players have elite quickness. At the college game, there are bigger differences between positions. Battle is really a 4, but CBJ is playing him at the 3. Then by your definition, he is the same as a 2. He would get burned constantly trying to defend a quick guard.

If we are going by the you are what you guard theory, then that’s fine. Battle just guards the slowest wing.
Offensively he can play the wing or “4”. When he would be the “4” our offense is ran quite a bit differently and he uses similar actions. Disagree all you want, but there is no schematic difference in offenses or defenses with the 2 and 3. This isn’t new either, been that way for about 15-20 years once motions fully took over. Battle being a wing vs the “4” has some validity as his actions would change some, but we don’t just put people in positions 1-5 anymore.

Henley is a 3, but playing the 2 due to the fact that we have all forwards and no guards on this team. Even if we say your assertation is true, and that we're counting Henley as a 2, then he's a lot less far along than we've already been discussing. I've posted this before, but he's shooting 33% from 2, 25% from 3 and 57% from FT. If he's being tasked with being a SG, he's going to have to improve his shooting percentages drastically, and increase his ballhandling skills.

What would Henley be doing differently at the 3 vs the 2? Absolutely nothing, maybe guarding a different guy, but like you mentioned that has to do with our other players skillsets. Offensively he wouldn’t be doing anything differently.

Until we see Christie in person, we can't reliably count him as anything. Maybe he comes in and is immediately a 10ppg/4ast kind of player out of the gate. Or maybe he's like Henley and is a 31% FG shooter. Don't know until you get him here.

Never said squat about Christie being good but the fact that poster is saying we are good at the guard positions because we have numbers there. That’s all.

 

[cjbfbp]

Called quality vs. quantity and the point Captain Oblivious was that doesn’t mean their recruits are better, it simply means they have more of them and thus achieve a higher ranking using one metric.

Yes, apparently if your recruiting class is smaller it is also poorer. I guess the solution would have been to force more outbound transfers so we could recruit more freshmen to be comparable with other Big Ten teams.

I'm not sure GWG and WBG are oblivious to the distinction; they may be dishonestly ignoring it.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Yes, apparently if your recruiting class is smaller it is also poorer. I guess the solution would have been to force more outbound transfers so we could recruit more freshmen to be comparable with other Big Ten teams.

I'm not sure GWG and WBG are oblivious to the distinction; they may be dishonestly ignoring it.

My guess is it’s the latter as it’s hard to imagine that they can be that opaque, once it’s been explained to them - no biggie everyone gets stuff wrong, but it’ll that makes them happy, God Bless Them!

 

[bga1]

If we are going by the you are what you guard theory, then that’s fine. Battle just guards the slowest wing.
Offensively he can play the wing or “4”. When he would be the “4” our offense is ran quite a bit differently and he uses similar actions. Disagree all you want, but there is no schematic difference in offenses or defenses with the 2 and 3. This isn’t new either, been that way for about 15-20 years once motions fully took over. Battle being a wing vs the “4” has some validity as his actions would change some, but we don’t just put people in positions 1-5 anymore.


What would Henley be doing differently at the 3 vs the 2? Absolutely nothing, maybe guarding a different guy, but like you mentioned that has to do with our other players skillsets. Offensively he wouldn’t be doing anything differently.

Never said squat about Christie being good but the fact that poster is saying we are good at the guard positions because we have numbers there. That’s all.

I think you have to force the other team to guard Battle with a 4 because they can't keep up with our players at the 1-3 positions and they have to respect them. Currently that is not the case so regardless of where Battle plays he is being guarded by someone who is quicker than he is. That's a serious problem for Battle and it shows. Last year he was flanked by Stephens or Loewe, Sutherlin and Willis. Any combination of that group had to be guarded by 3 quicker guys as Sutherlin was a threat to drive and the other 3 all a threat from range. Henley is quick but not shooting well. Samuels is no threat. Carrington has been injured and Cooper, the best of the lot, is slow and easily pressured.

On the defensive side the problem is even worse because Battle, Garcia and Payne all need to be on the court 30 minutes for us to compete. Who guards a 3? That's the problem that left Garcia guarding Pickett because he would have run Battle ragged.

It will be another long year next year if the speed and shooting at 3 guard positions isn't fixed.

 

[cjbfbp]

God Bless Them!

I gather that's the northern counterpart to the southern "Bless his heart!"

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Yes, apparently if your recruiting class is smaller it is also poorer. I guess the solution would have been to force more outbound transfers so we could recruit more freshmen to be comparable with other Big Ten teams.

I'm not sure GWG and WBG are oblivious to the distinction; they may be dishonestly ignoring it.

It's actually a difficult thing to really measure in a year-by-year basis. The question is the amount of talent you bring in to your program with the available scholarships.

I think we'd all agree that a class of 3 good players is better than a class of 2 good players. It isn't that complicated, having three good players is better than having two of them. For this particular season, it's outside of the coach's control but it requires you to look at the amount of talent in the program holistically.

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

Carrington doesn't even get wild card status? You are that willing to close the book on a true freshman already...

And you are making a lot of assumptions on the makup of future rosters at a time when roster turnover is at an unprecedented level across all of basketball and football.

I am closing the books on Carrington. I know many will call me crazy, but I’ve seen enough to stand behind my judgement. If he turns it around in two years, I’ll eat crow and own it.

I think you have to make some assumptions when making future projections. Yes all players could transfer out, but I’m assuming that these will be our core guys in 2024-25:

Evans, Payne, Christie, JOJ *putting Garcia on this list was a mistake as he will most likely play only one more year if any college basketball after this year*.

Wild cards: Henley (as much lowlights as highlights), Betts - no playing time but I like his prospects at SF *but if he is good, Henley may never play

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Crickets .
Enlighten us, Oracle of Everything!
@GopherWeatherGuy

She/They/He will tell you for 2 million in cash.

 

[Gopherfan84]

I think you have to force the other team to guard Battle with a 4 because they can't keep up with our players at the 1-3 positions and they have to respect them. Currently that is not the case so regardless of where Battle plays he is being guarded by someone who is quicker than he is. That's a serious problem for Battle and it shows. Last year he was flanked by Stephens or Loewe, Sutherlin and Willis. Any combination of that group had to be guarded by 3 quicker guys as Sutherlin was a threat to drive and the other 3 all a threat from range. Henley is quick but not shooting well. Samuels is no threat. Carrington has been injured and Cooper, the best of the lot, is slow and easily pressured.

Yeah last years wings/guards helped Battle because they could drive and kick and pull in opposing defenses. To me that doesn’t have anything to do with him being the 3 or 4, just the caliber of our wings/pt guard. Defenses don’t help off of Battle nor do they need to.

On the defensive side the problem is even worse because Battle, Garcia and Payne all need to be on the court 30 minutes for us to compete. Who guards a 3? That's the problem that left Garcia guarding Pickett because he would have run Battle ragged.

I disagree as I don’t find Battle or Garcia as issues defensively. Battle is limited, but he does fine. He stuck Lundy on Saturday and basically held him. I didn’t mind Garcia on Pickett either. Picketts the best wing in the conference and he likes to bully wings so I liked Garcias length and size. When Garcia went out it got ugly, he did ok on him. Garcia is our best defender hands down on this team imo. Our defense isn’t really worse than last years. Metrically we are about the same. Just have different issues.

It will be another long year next year if the speed and shooting at 3 guard positions isn't fixed.

I think it needs to really be addressed at one position them move Cooper to off the ball and a lot of issues would be solved. 2 would be ideal however. Shooting is fine, need someone to attack driving lanes better.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

When was Euro ball screen ran in 1993? Come on man, we are bad offensively for skill reasons, not schematic

It's more than a lack of skill, Ben is not even recruiting players at the right positions.

Ben has put a priority on recruiting centers over guards, and many programs don't even run with a true center anymore. Yes, it's like we're recruiting in the 80s and 90s.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

I am closing the books on Carrington. I know many will call me crazy, but I’ve seen enough to stand behind my judgement. If he turns it around in two years, I’ll eat crow and own it.

I think you have to make some assumptions when making future projections. Yes all players could transfer out, but I’m assuming that these will be our core guys in 2024-25:

Evans, Payne, Christie, JOJ *putting Garcia on this list was a mistake as he will most likely play only one more year if any college basketball after this year*.

Wild cards: Henley (as much lowlights as highlights), Betts - no playing time but I like his prospects at SF *but if he is good, Henley may never play

I'm not even high on Carrington, and I've always thought he's been overrated on here because he was MN Mr basketball, but you can't write him off as a freshman when he's been injured the entire year.

If he's healthy and bad next year, then it's probably time to write him off.

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

My guess is it’s the latter as it’s hard to imagine that they can be that opaque, once it’s been explained to them - no biggie everyone gets stuff wrong, but it’ll that makes them happy, God Bless Them!

I just saw the stack rank and used that…didn’t go into all the fine details. It would be interesting in two years if we looked back on 247’s rankings to see who actually had the best classes based on production. All of these ratings sites are hypotheticals…and are somewhat meaningless. Example: Isaiah Dalhman was ~100th ranked recruit (across all sites), yet probably had the same career win shares - dalhman’s stats below:



Now compare him to Will Ramberg (not a ~top 100 recruit):


You could make an argument that Will Ramberg had better production. Thus Isaiah based on production alone should be ranked below Ramberg (in terms of stars) in this hypothetical

 

[Wet_Blanket_Guy]

Would you pla

I'm not even high on Carrington, and I've always thought he's been overrated on here because he was MN Mr basketball, but you can't write him off as a freshman when he's been injured the entire year.

If he's healthy and bad next year, then it's probably time to write him off.

y him over Christie or a portal SG? Or a portal PG and Cooper?

 

[Gopherfan84]

It's more than a lack of skill, Ben is not even recruiting players at the right positions.

Ben has put a priority on recruiting centers over guards, and many programs don't even run with a true center anymore. Yes, it's like we're recruiting in the 80s and 90s.

How is this true? He’s gotten two good center recruits. He’s also recruited a bunch of long forwards and wings. He’s missed on all his PG recruits. College basketball teams still mostly all carry a 5. You know this so we are not back in the 80s and 90s. He needs more guards we get it and you’ve said it multiple times and you’ve been proven right. Last years team needed more front court help. Next years team will need a fast guard but is set at the front court. So he can continue to prioritize guards in the portal and not take a center. Will you be happy then? No you won’t because you’ve stated many times you hate the hire and now with the current data there is no chance he can turn it around. That’s fine you can have your opinion and it’s backed by evidence. Stick to that and stop making the other stuff up and you’ll still have plenty of content lol.

 

[Gopherfan84]

I am closing the books on Carrington. I know many will call me crazy, but I’ve seen enough to stand behind my judgement. If he turns it around in two years, I’ll eat crow and own it.

You won’t own crap. You’ve also not seen enough. I will call you crazy however.

I think you have to make some assumptions when making future projections. Yes all players could transfer out, but I’m assuming that these will be our core guys in 2024-25:

Everyone is making assumptions on any future projection whether they are good or bad.

Evans, Payne, Christie, JOJ *putting Garcia on this list was a mistake as he will most likely play only one more year if any college basketball after this year*.

Garcia won’t play past next year is correct.

Wild cards: Henley (as much lowlights as highlights), Betts - no playing time but I like his prospects at SF *but if he is good, Henley may never play

This will be interesting to watch for sure. They can play together too most likely.

 

[bga1]

Yeah last years wings/guards helped Battle because they could drive and kick and pull in opposing defenses. To me that doesn’t have anything to do with him being the 3 or 4, just the caliber of our wings/pt guard. Defenses don’t help off of Battle nor do they need to.


I disagree as I don’t find Battle or Garcia as issues defensively. Battle is limited, but he does fine. He stuck Lundy on Saturday and basically held him. I didn’t mind Garcia on Pickett either. Picketts the best wing in the conference and he likes to bully wings so I liked Garcias length and size. When Garcia went out it got ugly, he did ok on him. Garcia is our best defender hands down on this team imo. Our defense isn’t really worse than last years. Metrically we are about the same. Just have different issues.

I think it needs to really be addressed at one position them move Cooper to off the ball and a lot of issues would be solved. 2 would be ideal however. Shooting is fine, need someone to attack driving lanes better.

The shooting is not fine.

We are the worst 3 point shooting team in the conference at 30%. That, not to mention the fact that our free throw shooting is the worst in the country. I think we would be bad at free throws by high school standards! Shooting is killing us.

Then there is rebounding- this one stunned me. This year with a much bigger team we are -4.9 on rebounding margin in all games. Last year with a bunch of guards we were -2.2

 

[cjbfbp]

The question is the amount of talent you bring in to your program with the available scholarships.

I think we'd all agree that a class of 3 good players is better than a class of 2 good players. It isn't that complicated, having three good players is better than having two of them. For this particular season, it's outside of the coach's control but it requires you to look at the amount of talent in the program holistically.

I agree with the first bolded sentence. I think from the standpoint of scholarships available for incoming freshmen in 2023, Johnson probably recruited as well as possibly could be expected for a Minnesota coach and particularly one that doesn't have much of a history. The average per freshman recruit ranking for Minnesota ranks at #5 in the Big Ten for 2023 according to the service cited and there are only fractional differences between our ranking and numbers 2 through 4. Only Michigan State (at #1) has a measurably higher average rating.

As to the second bolded sentence, yes, more good players is better than fewer but that determination requires looking at holdovers and transfer acquisitions. These rankings do not include transfers at this time. Obviously our holdovers are not at the higher end of the league but there is a limit to how many holdovers one can, or would want to, force into the portal.

 

[bga1]

You won’t own crap. You’ve also not seen enough. I will call you crazy however.

Everyone is making assumptions on any future projection whether they are good or bad.

Garcia won’t play past next year is correct.

This will be interesting to watch for sure. They can play together too most likely.

I think the worst take that I see on the individual players on here is the assumption that they will never be able to develop beyond what we see today. I am not going to go "Pilgrim" here with the Clem stuff but there were very few of Clem's players who were ready to go at a high level right away. Burton, Newbern, Lynch, Walton, John Thomas, Charles Thomas, Q Lewis, even Sam Jacobson..... None of them were any too good as freshmen (Newbern as a soph as he had to prop 48 a year).
Voshon Leonard was the most ready of any of them, he just could shoot it from anywhere pretty much from the start. That's rare.

Monson had a couple in Rickert and Hump and Tubby had Andre Hollins who again was just a natural shooter.

Henley is going to get better, his form isn't broken. Payne will develop a shot. JOJ is learning on offense and will at some point get it on defense as well. All three have the natural ability. They just need time and also to be surrounded with the right pieces that fit.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

How is this true? He’s gotten two good center recruits. He’s also recruited a bunch of long forwards and wings. He’s missed on all his PG recruits. College basketball teams still mostly all carry a 5. You know this so we are not back in the 80s and 90s. He needs more guards we get it and you’ve said it multiple times and you’ve been proven right. Last years team needed more front court help. Next years team will need a fast guard but is set at the front court. So he can continue to prioritize guards in the portal and not take a center. Will you be happy then? No you won’t because you’ve stated many times you hate the hire and now with the current data there is no chance he can turn it around. That’s fine you can have your opinion and it’s backed by evidence. Stick to that and stop making the other stuff up and you’ll still have plenty of content lol.

I'm not making anything up. The B1G is one of the few leagues that has some teams that roll out a traditional center. I also believe that's the main reason those teams never go deep into the tournament.

I'll agree that basketball is positionless in the way that you only need two positions, guards and forwards, and there's a big difference between the two. The best teams typically start 3 guards and 2 forwards who can play inside and out.

I actually thought Ben was going to build his roster that way after what he brought in last season, which was hurt by the Fox/Ihnen injuries, and that gave me a little hope for him. I soured significantly on his future when he recruited away from that last offseason. This is the way Tubby's teams were built, and was why he ultimately failed, except they have significantly less talent now.

 

[cjbfbp]

The shooting is not fine.

We are the worst 3 point shooting team in the conference at 30%. That, not to mention the fact that our free throw shooting is the worst in the country. I think we would be bad at free throws by high school standards! Shooting is killing us.

The there is rebounding- this one stunned me. This year with a much bigger team we are -4.9 on rebounding margin in all games. Last year with a bunch of guards we were -2.2

It's too bad that information isn't aggregated and publicly available for the high school level. That would be an interesting theory to test.

Your larger point certainly is correct: 12th in overall field goal shooting in the conference, last (of course) in free throw shooting, last in 3 point shooting, and last in effective field goal shooting (slightly behind NW who, of course, compensates by hitting at a much higher percentage on their free throws).

This is why I don't care as much about getting a point guard from the transfer portal as I do about getting better outside shooting and foot speed.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Yes, apparently if your recruiting class is smaller it is also poorer. I guess the solution would have been to force more outbound transfers so we could recruit more freshmen to be comparable with other Big Ten teams.

I'm not sure GWG and WBG are oblivious to the distinction; they may be dishonestly ignoring it.

100% option 2. They have made up their minds on Johnson so they will do anything possible to make him look bad.

 

[GopherOhana]

twice the number of wins next season then twice again the year after that. sadly, two years out CBJ will have the opportunity to finish lower than 14th with just 4 wins

 

[bga1]

It's too bad that information isn't aggregated and publicly available for the high school level. That would be an interesting theory to test.

Your larger point certainly is correct: 12th in overall field goal shooting in the conference, last (of course) in free throw shooting, last in 3 point shooting, and last in effective field goal shooting (slightly behind NW who, of course, compensates by hitting at a much higher percentage on their free throws).

This is why I don't care as much about getting a point guard from the transfer portal as I do about getting better outside shooting and foot speed.

Just as a sampler- I looked at DeLaSalle stats through 30 games- they shoot 76% on FTs and their opponents shoot 71%. We shoot 60%

Of course neither they nor their opponents face those stout Big Ten free throw defenses!

Edit: Just for fun- also checked Lakeville North for another data point- they shoot 71% and their opponents shoot 74% FTs

 

[bga1]

twice the number of wins next season then twice again the year after that. sadly, two years out CBJ will have the opportunity to finish lower than 14th with just 4 wins

I have always said he gets 4 or 5 years minimum. However- if he wins 2 to 4 games next year - they would have no choice but to fire him. I think we are going to make a big, big jump next year and win 7 or more Big Ten games. Still not acceptable but he keeps his job at that level.

 

[Gopherfan84]

The shooting is not fine.

We are the worst 3 point shooting team in the conference at 30%. That, not to mention the fact that our free throw shooting is the worst in the country. I think we would be bad at free throws by high school standards! Shooting is killing us.

I don’t count FT shooting in this, but felt Cooper and Battle are competent 3 point shooting. That is what I was considering fine. I should’ve elaborated.

The there is rebounding- this one stunned me. This year with a much bigger team we are -4.9 on rebounding margin in all games. Last year with a bunch of guards we were -2.2

Rebounding has improved quite a bit and isn’t as much of a crutch as it was earlier this season.