Point Spread Anomaly?

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Gophergrandpa

Gophergrandpa

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Gophers, last I looked, are a 14.5 point favorite over Illinois, which seems kind of high. Only two teams have beaten Illinois by more than a touchdown this year. Meanwhile, Ohio State, with the most explosive offense in the B1G by a country mile, a team that is literally crushing opponents, is only a 15.5 point favorite over Nebraska. I know Vegas odds ultimately reflect bettor sentiment, but these opening lines seems wacky to me. Love to see the Gophers cover, but would be very happy with a touchdown win. Hard to believe the Buckeyes don't cover--unless they are sitting half of their offense for the Nebby game.
 

I agree both seem a bit off... although Gophers less so.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Gophers, last I looked, are a 14.5 point favorite over Illinois, which seems kind of high. Only two teams have beaten Illinois by more than a touchdown this year.
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I suspect that has to do with the following:

1635810367103.png

The spreads the last four games indicated relatively modest expectations for the Gophers, but, if you bet on the opponent to cover the spread the last four games, you got stomped four times in a row. Gophers beat the predicted margin by double digits (or close) each game. Not only that but the margin they've been beating the spread by has increased each week, even more when they were favored than when they were the underdog. I would say that Illinois at Minnesota is most comparable to Northwestern at home in bettors' estimation so they definitely want a larger margin for comfort. I think if they set a margin of Gophers +8 or +9, few would take the opponent to cover after the last four games.
 

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cjbfbp said:
I suspect that has to do with the following:

View attachment 15064

The spreads the last four games indicated relatively modest expectations for the Gophers, but, if you bet on the opponent to cover the spread the last four games, you got stomped four times in a row. Gophers beat the predicted margin by double digits (or close) each game. Not only that but the margin they've been beating the spread by has increased each week, even more when they were favored than when they were the underdog. I would say that Illinois at Minnesota is most comparable to Northwestern at home in bettors' estimation so they definitely want a larger margin for comfort. I think if they set a margin of Gophers +8 or +9, few would take the opponent to cover after the last four games.
Click to expand...
Yeah. MN -6.5 is a slam dunk. -14.5 I stay away
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I know Vegas odds ultimately reflect bettor sentiment, but these opening lines seems wacky to me.
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lines reflect analytic numbers...analytics like Nebraska...home field usually factored in...Gophs home, Huskers home
 


The spread uses Sagarin mostly for the initial spread.
His numbers predict who will win but not by exactly how much.
The betting sites then adjust the spread to induce a 50/50 split on the amount bet so their cut, or juice or vigorish is not touched.
Home field can account for at most about three points but it depends.
 


I've been crushing Gophers bets the past few weeks. I wouldn't touch 14.5.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Gophers, last I looked, are a 14.5 point favorite over Illinois, which seems kind of high. Only two teams have beaten Illinois by more than a touchdown this year. Meanwhile, Ohio State, with the most explosive offense in the B1G by a country mile, a team that is literally crushing opponents, is only a 15.5 point favorite over Nebraska. I know Vegas odds ultimately reflect bettor sentiment, but these opening lines seems wacky to me. Love to see the Gophers cover, but would be very happy with a touchdown win. Hard to believe the Buckeyes don't cover--unless they are sitting half of their offense for the Nebby game.
Click to expand...

SP+ Rankings;

Ohio St 1
Minnesota 17
Nebraska 24
Illinois 82
 



Spread is all about enticing people to lay bets, such that hopefully you get enough people to lose to help pay for the people who win.

I don't think it needs to be any more complicated than that.
 

MplsGopher said:
Spread is all about enticing people to lay bets, such that hopefully you get enough people to lose to help pay for the people who win.

I don't think it needs to be any more complicated than that.
Click to expand...
Maybe both of these lines will move meaningfully.
 

hungan1 said:
Bielema's team upset Penn State. We should be worried. This upcoming game is by no means in the bag. The 14.5 point favorite is too high.

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Illinois ranks 78 in rushing defense.
Penn St ranks 114 in rushing offense.
Minnesota ranks 15 in rushing offense.
 

I wouldn't touch Nebraska right now.
That team could go in either direction any given week.
 



hungan1 said:
Bielema's team upset Penn State. We should be worried. This upcoming game is by no means in the bag. The 14.5 point favorite is too high.

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Disagree that we should be worried. Fleck has been pounding the idea all year that you have to be humble enough to understand that anyone can beat you if you don't play well and confident enough to think you can beat anyone.

I have no doubt the coaches are emphasizing what Illinois did to PSU and also reminding the players about the infamous BG game as well from our season.

So it isn't about being worried it is about being focused which is the whole idea behind the one game championship season philosophy. This week will be a huge test of that with Iowa looming on the horizon and a Division championship a real possibility. But none of that happens if the team doesn't do what they are supposed to do against Illinois.
 


Face The Facts said:
Illinois ranks 78 in rushing defense.
Penn St ranks 114 in rushing offense.
Minnesota ranks 15 in rushing offense.
Click to expand...
Those stats don't mean a hill of beans come game day. You know Brett Bielema's team is going to go full throttle against the Gophers.

Better yet, ask the Gophers how they feel about BGSU's stats now? The Gophers were given a gift in that loss. They know you cannot underestimate any opponent.

Take the one-game championship to the finish line.
 

cjbfbp said:
I suspect that has to do with the following:

View attachment 15064

The spreads the last four games indicated relatively modest expectations for the Gophers, but, if you bet on the opponent to cover the spread the last four games, you got stomped four times in a row. Gophers beat the predicted margin by double digits (or close) each game. Not only that but the margin they've been beating the spread by has increased each week, even more when they were favored than when they were the underdog. I would say that Illinois at Minnesota is most comparable to Northwestern at home in bettors' estimation so they definitely want a larger margin for comfort. I think if they set a margin of Gophers +8 or +9, few would take the opponent to cover after the last four games.
Click to expand...
Pretty impressive in the sense that generally ... I don't expect us to beat the spread.
 


Face The Facts said:
I wouldn't touch Nebraska right now.
That team could go in either direction any given week.
Click to expand...
That team shown it can go either direction in games against bad teams like Illinois or Northwestern.

They have only gone one direction against average to good teams all year. They are still winless in five tries against teams better than those two.
 

Computers love Nebraska. They see good yards per play numbers and the #2 offense in the conference against a very difficult schedule.

The record shows that for almost this entire season, they have a problem with winning games even against the bottom of the league. This has been happening for 4 years now.

Nebraska could pull an upset in their last 3, and it would be very kind of them to break out against Iowa or Wisconsin. They are due.

Until we see that, Nebraska may wear a patch about their "Winning Tradition" but they currently have a winning problem that will likely end 2021 with a 1-8 Big Ten record. No matter what the computers say.
 

A Nebraska sweep of Iowa and Wisconsin would be awesome.
 

Our ability to stop the run and our ability to run will make what Illinois does a challenge. After watching the Penn State game I am not convinced that Illinois can affectively pass against and/or run for that matter. I believe our D is stronger against the run than Penn State is. I also know for a fact no one can run as good as us and I expect we will move the ball quite well.
 

Face The Facts said:
A Nebraska sweep of Iowa and Wisconsin would be awesome.
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It would be, but don't count on it. Scott Frost is their coach. They lose both, one will be close. My guess is Wisconsin whips them though
 

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