Penn st. now 17.5 point favorite

Donate To GopherHole
J

JPIIGopher

Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
956
Reaction score
1
Points
16
Can anyone borrow me a hundred grand until sunday:D This seems waaaay to high to me, especially given the brutal weather conditions. Neither offense is impressive to me. Penn St. has the better front 7 but the Gophs run D is pretty capable. I think this one will be a low scoring slugfest. I think Penn St. win by less than 10.
 

weather

They might have to shut us out to win by 17. Not sure they will score much more than that in the weather, etc
 

No way with the weather forecast of 34 and rain/snow.
 

I fully admit I'm a homer for the Gophers, but seriously, 17.5 points? The linesmakers know what they are doing, but this just seems absurd.
 

I am what you consider a realist, and if the gophers can't run the ball which will be difficult against this amazing Penn State run defense, they very well could beat us handily by 20+. They have an even better front four than Cal brought into our stadium. If Weber is forced to pass it could be a LONG game.
 


JackiO said:
I am what you consider a realist, and if the gophers can't run the ball which will be difficult against this amazing Penn State run defense, they very well could beat us handily by 20+. They have an even better front four than Cal brought into our stadium. If Weber is forced to pass it could be a LONG game.
Click to expand...

Sure, they could win by 20, but if everything plays out like it should, they won't. That line has to be more about mistaken perceptions of PSU, and the general public thinking they're the same team as last year. If I were a betting man, I'd be all over the Gophers in this one, even if the line was 13.
 

The linesmakers know math thats whats going on. Apparently a crap load of betters are picking PSU despite the high point spread. Bookies make money off the 5% they take and then try to have all the betters split about 50 - 50. If one team is getting way more bets than the other they increase th point spread until it evens out.
 

All last week we were talking about why OSU was a 16 point fav,
Everyone was saying no way would OSU win by 16 they were right OSU won by 18.

Anyone that bets real money on college games deserves to lose their money .
 

The people who are betting serious money are betting that the Gophers will kill themselves with mistakes.

Turnovers, penalties, blown coverage like we saw last week on the longPurdue touchdown could all result in a lopsided game. Otherwise, this should be a close.
 



MilitaryGopher said:
The linesmakers know math thats whats going on. Apparently a crap load of betters are picking PSU despite the high point spread. Bookies make money off the 5% they take and then try to have all the betters split about 50 - 50. If one team is getting way more bets than the other they increase th point spread until it evens out.
Click to expand...

Quite true. If it weren't for replays of the Dan Nystrom kick, I wouldn't have been surprised if most bettors thought the Gophers had never beaten Penn State, let only beating them 4 out of 10 times.
 

That's a lot of points. If we hang on to the ball, and don't make mistakes, we could do ok. Take the sack rather than throw the risky pass, because Penn State will get the pick while some other schools might not.

On the other hand, taking few chances might not give us an opportunity to actually win the game. Beating the spread is better than getting demolished, but its kind of cold comfort. We can't be too conservative, and we can't be too risky. If we keep the game close, we have an opportunity to pull it out at the end. See what kind of opportunities Penn State offers us.
 

Man that seems like a pretty high line. I will agree with you gopher fans that this penn state team is not close to the same penn state team of last year. I watched all of the Illinois game and came away completely unimpressed by both teams. If Daryl Clark doesnt run all over the defense, i think the gophs definitely cover.

However, a tight game can turn into an 18+ point loss in no time with turnovers and missed assignments. the Badgers were going toe to toe with OSU when two pick sixes totaling around 150 yards and a 90+ yard KO return turned it into an 18 point loss.
 




A pick-six in the red zone turns a close 3-point game into a 17-point blowout. A blocked field goal returned for a TD is a 10-point turnaround.

People who bet seem to think that some teams are going to really implode when they play the big venues. That's how you get Wisconsin +17 @ OSU, followed by Wisconsin -3 at home against Iowa. It's not that oddsmakers really dislike Wisconsin, they just know the liklihood of costly mistakes happening is better in a hostile environment.

Arkansas soundly defeated the #17 team at home. But @ Florida they are +17.
 

PlayHosea said:
I fully admit I'm a homer for the Gophers, but seriously, 17.5 points? The linesmakers know what they are doing, but this just seems absurd.
Click to expand...

I guess the linesmakers know what they are doing.
 

Can anyone borrow me a hundred grand until sunday
Click to expand...

Glad nobody took me up on this:) Our offense ended up struggling more than I thought. I thought we were good for 7-10 points. Oh well.
 

I ended up betting on this game, and before it i said if the gophers score they'll cover the spread. What do ya know? They get shut out and i'm out some money. I should have knew that would happen.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom