Parity in P5

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wow, that’s crazy. lots of parity indeed.
 

going strictly by mathematics - for every win, there has to be a loss.

for a variety of reasons, this year there just seem to be a lot of teams hovering around that .500 mark.

by my count, there are 45 of 133 FBS teams with records of 5-7, 6-6 and 7-5. that's 34% of all FBS teams are in the middle. that does not count 4 teams that are currently 5-6 (Army, Navy, Colorado State & Cal) and one 7-4 team (UCLA). If UCLA loses to finish 7-5, that makes it 49 teams or 37% of all FBS teams that will finish in the middle.
 

If you define parity opposite of what the word actually means, then yeah.
 




MaxyJR1 said:
45 of 68 P5 schools finished 5-4 or worse in conference play this year. 2/3 of programs are basically questioning the future.
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Wonder if some of that is due to the transfer portal and talent getting redistributed.
 

It's funny thinking about how there are only "three" divisions of college football, but there are many more levels than that when you look at it.
  • Top of the P5 - These include the Blue Bloods and the purple bloods, the teams always in the top 20 or are expected to be
  • The rest of the P5 - The remaining teams from the FBS that range from bad to good, maybe getting a NY6 bowl occasionally
  • Group of 5
  • Top of the FCS, make the playoffs regularly
  • Rest of the FCS, don't make the playoffs often
  • DII
  • DIII
 

Word said:
Wonder if some of that is due to the transfer portal and talent getting redistributed.
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I think it’s really a mixed bag. Covid years, transfers, NIL, coaching carousel etc.
 



MaxyJR1 said:
45 of 68 P5 schools finished 5-4 or worse in conference play this year. 2/3 of programs are basically questioning the future.
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I’d love to see more evidence of parity, but I don’t see it in your math. Maybe I’m missing something? By your math, 1/3 of the teams were 6-3 or better which most would consider a good year. Therefore, 2/3rds had average or bad years. That seems like a pretty normal distribution to me. How is it evidence of increased parity?
 

Is it different from the past? Seems like every year they barely hit the number they need to be bowl eligible.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
45 of 68 P5 schools finished 5-4 or worse in conference play this year. 2/3 of programs are basically questioning the future.
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There is a real possibility that the top 40 or so form their own non-NCAA semi-pro league, and everyone else morphs into something more in line with student athlete expectations, even if it means dropping a notch to about the North Dakota State level. It would mean turning away from big TV money (which always seemed to be spent, anyway, never saved).
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
There is a real possibility that the top 40 or so form their own non-NCAA semi-pro league, and everyone else morphs into something more in line with student athlete expectations, even if it means dropping a notch to about the North Dakota State level. It would mean turning away from big TV money (which always seemed to be spent, anyway, never saved).
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I hope this happens.

But if major Universities like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. form their own league and advertise it as real college football....they could get a big TV contract.
 



SeaBee_Gopher said:
I’d love to see more evidence of parity, but I don’t see it in your math. Maybe I’m missing something? By your math, 1/3 of the teams were 6-3 or better which most would consider a good year. Therefore, 2/3rds had average or bad years. That seems like a pretty normal distribution to me. How is it evidence of increased parity?
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Probably showing more of a gap at the top than parity.
 

14 BG10 Teams
63 BG10 games and wins available
31 games won by four teams MI/OSU/PSU/IA
49% of potential wins were captured by 29% of teams in MI/OSU/PSU/IA

Almost half the wins in the BG10 were captured by only 4 of 14 teams. 3 of those teams do that every year. This is the opposite of parity.
 

EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I hope this happens.

But if major Universities like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. form their own league and advertise it as real college football....they could get a big TV contract.
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It'd be great but unfortunately they would not get a big tv contract.

If they formed their own league, the disparity between the haves (Michigans/Ohio States) and the U would only grow. One of our selling points is that we are in the Big 10. If we are now AAA but, don't worry, it's REAL college football that gulf widens.

Our product would be the MN vs. WI game and we'd be competing with the Ohio State vs. Michigan game for eyeballs.
 

Pilgrim keeps spouting this line. It won't happen. All but the three lowest bowl games get better ratings than the FCS championship. People don't want to watch minor league sports on TV.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Probably showing more of a gap at the top than parity.
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Yeah....the term parity doesn't really apply to Power 5 college football because there is such a distinct line between the haves and the have nots.

There is some parity among the two groups in that the teams at the top shuffle and the teams in the 2nd tier shuffle but it is really hard for the teams in the bigger 2nd tier group to break into the top group where the majority of the top tier talent is.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Yeah....the term parity doesn't really apply to Power 5 college football because there is such a distinct line between the haves and the have nots.

There is some parity among the two groups in that the teams at the top shuffle and the teams in the 2nd tier shuffle but it is really hard for the teams in the bigger 2nd tier group to break into the top group where the majority of the top tier talent is.
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This got me thinking about the West Division. The group never won the Championship in the 10 years of the divisions. Wisconsin was 44-14 in division games but was 0-4 in Championship games. It will be interesting to monitor which West team/s are most competitive moving forward in the one division.
 

The thing is this. Ohio State and Michigan’s talent level has increased through NIL. Where as MN/WI/NE used to have a 5-15% chance of beating OSU/MI… that’s now 0.1% - 1.5% chance depending on good year/bad year. Penn State maybe had a 15-25% chance… now they have a 3-7% chance. 3-5 years of this dynamic and the public will catch on and college football is going to lose viewership.

I love my Gophers, but if 2-3 games a year there is literally next to no chance of winning… something will have to change. I think that a relegation system would be the only way to have something worthwhile to play for each year.
 

PoockItInfor6 said:
The thing is this. Ohio State and Michigan’s talent level has increased through NIL. Where as MN/WI/NE used to have a 5-15% chance of beating OSU/MI… that’s now 0.1% - 1.5% chance depending on good year/bad year. Penn State maybe had a 15-25% chance… now they have a 3-7% chance. 3-5 years of this dynamic and the public will catch on and college football is going to lose viewership.

I love my Gophers, but if 2-3 games a year there is literally next to no chance of winning… something will have to change. I think that a relegation system would be the only way to have something worthwhile to play for each year.
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College football might be the only North American sport where promotion and relegation would be fun and would work, but the TV contract disparities are so huge, I don't see how it could happen.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
This got me thinking about the West Division. The group never won the Championship in the 10 years of the divisions. Wisconsin was 44-14 in division games but was 0-4 in Championship games. It will be interesting to monitor which West team/s are most competitive moving forward in the one division.
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If the Big Ten stays with the 18 team no divisions format I will be very surprised if we see any of the teams from the former Big Ten West in the title game. The way the college football landscape is setup it would take a magical year for any of those teams to crack what looks to be a Big 6 of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, USC and Washington.

Heck, Iowa has had about as magical of a season as possible and even that wouldn't have gotten them into the conference championship game in a division less Big Ten this year as they would have finished 4th (technically tied for 3rd with Penn State but lost head to head matchup). Factor in the 4 newcomers and Iowa's record would have them in 6th place.
 


EasyThere Pilgrim said:
I hope this happens.

But if major Universities like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. form their own league and advertise it as real college football....they could get a big TV contract.
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FredCoxRocks said:
I would watch real college football.
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I don't know about a big TV contract, but I would watch the "real college football". Heck, I already follow a fair share of D3 teams. Anything that's not the NFL is technically inferior football, but home team rooting and atmosphere still holds people's interest in college and high school stadiums across the country.

The handful of blue chip "Globetrotter" programs need the "Washington General" programs for games almost as much as we need them for money. This NIL and portal mess will probably only get worked out once the talent disparity starts to threaten bottom lines.
 

The bottom 2/3s of the P5 are all flip-a-coin-to-find-the-winner-of-this-fugly-game.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I don't know about a big TV contract, but I would watch the "real college football". Heck, I already follow a fair share of D3 teams. Anything that's not the NFL is technically inferior football, but home team rooting and atmosphere still holds people's interest in college and high school stadiums across the country.

The handful of blue chip "Globetrotter" programs need the "Washington General" programs for games almost as much as we need them for money. This NIL and portal mess will probably only get worked out once the talent disparity starts to threaten bottom lines.
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That’s my thought too. I’m just saying it will affect bottom lines. Because there are only mayyyyybe 5-6 teams that actually have a shot at winning it all. There are another 5-6 that have resources in place that they could actually win. I don’t and I won’t watch SEC. I don’t and I won’t watch “the game”. There is very little point of turning on a Michigan v Michigan State game hoping for an upset… just not going to happen.
 


There's little parity at the top. Even though the playoffs are expanding, the additions of the 4 new teams will make it very hard for programs like MN, WI, and IA to get in.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
There is a real possibility that the top 40 or so form their own non-NCAA semi-pro league, and everyone else morphs into something more in line with student athlete expectations, even if it means dropping a notch to about the North Dakota State level. It would mean turning away from big TV money (which always seemed to be spent, anyway, never saved).
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And that new super conference will play each other and some will win a lot and some will lose a lot. Those 40 super teams run a great risk of suddenly becoming much less than they have been considered when they were playing the Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arkansas, lower level SEC, B1G, ACC, B12 type teams. Can you imagine Notre Dame being 3-9 if they had to play more of the TOP teams in their new semi-pro league environment? And, they would no longer find it so easy to remain independent. How would tOSU fare with a tougher schedule. Right now their only real competition is Michigan until play-off time comes. Same with Michigan and their relationship with tOSU. Oklahoma, USC, Texas A&M, Penn State, Oregon, Alabama, Florida State, et. al. They ALL would have a lot to lose stature wise if they were only playing top 25 type 12 game seasons year after year. They would miss their lower half of the conference "breather " games and their 3 or 4 cupcake non conference games a LOT...
 

Interesting conversation on coach/player tampering in the portal and NIL from about 1:22:30 to 1:30 (vulgarity warning) . In summary, college football is now dirty as hell. Some quotes:

- "You can’t play the game any other way than the dirtiest m’fers playing it."

- "If you’re going to play the civil game with dirty m’fers, you’re going to get real dirty because we’re going to eff you up."

- "In the dirtiest era of college football where you can do anything, either get in the mud or go watch."

- "It’s not the NIL, it’s the portal."

 

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