My theory on the loss to Purdue

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Someone tell me right now. Are the refs, replay booth officials, studio hosts and sideline reporter against use at Illinois.

Does Vegas use this when determining spreads for Gopher games?
 

"Vegas" does not determine the spread. Sagarin's computer sets the first spread then Vegas adjusts the spread to keep the bets balanced.
MN ate too many cupcakes before they had to chew and digest a tough piece of meat and choked.
 

Otis said:
More likely scenario:

Offensive line and receivers read too many articles about Gophers being favorites to win the west. Then they couldn’t block as effectively or catch balls thrown into their bread basket. Dropped first down dropped touch down that became an interception! Unable to make holes in line because it was slightly harder.

Coaches get too cute and go for it with slow developing Qb run instead of hammering forward in a quick hitter on 4th and 1!

Get rid of those boneheaded moves and who knows what the score would have been. The first down drop ended a drive and let them score first. The dropped td would have seriously changed the game dynamics.

Can’t blame the defense even if they gave up the long run at the end.

Execution on offense failed to allowGophers to live up to their ranking.
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The personal foul in the 4th quarter on the late hit out if bounds (in addition to being just a completely bone head play) left a very problematic vapor trail. That was a three and out for the defense with Purdue punting from deep in their own end. Game was still tied at that point and nothing positive happened after that boneheaded play.
 


Our 3 big errors were either when we were in scoring position or put Purdue in scoring position. Purdue’s 3 big errors were around midfield and neither took points off the board nor lead to easy points for us.
 

Purdue outplayed us and we had a number of blunders (coaching and playing).

The big issue was that we couldn't run the ball. When we can't run the ball, at ease, I believe our staff can get a little tight and that tightness can translate to the players. Oliver hitting someone that far out of bounds was uncharacteristic, the dropped pass, the missed FG, the indecisiveness running the ball. I think that tightness led to the bizarre 4th down call.
 

I still can't rap my head around it.

If you'd have told me before the game we'd hold AOC to 200 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 picks.....I'd have debated if there was even a reason to watch.
 




Otis said:
More likely scenario:

Offensive line and receivers read too many articles about Gophers being favorites to win the west. Then they couldn’t block as effectively or catch balls thrown into their bread basket. Dropped first down dropped touch down that became an interception! Unable to make holes in line because it was slightly harder.

Coaches get too cute and go for it with slow developing Qb run instead of hammering forward in a quick hitter on 4th and 1!

Get rid of those boneheaded moves and who knows what the score would have been. The first down drop ended a drive and let them score first. The dropped td would have seriously changed the game dynamics.

Can’t blame the defense even if they gave up the long run at the end.

Execution on offense failed to allowGophers to live up to their ranking.
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Great take
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
Curious what you think the team does on Friday nights at the team hotel with meetings and a team meal. Think a bunch of dudes just got hammered in the hotel? They don’t just sit in the dorms or at their apartments/houses. This isn’t high school
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What I think the team does friday night? I'm flattered you are so curious - it's great you have an inquisitive mind!

Well since I've just learned they have a team hotel the night before I would think there is some sort of imposed curfew and also probably some discussion from coaches about the realities of college life and their duties as athletes. In other words - "ok boys, we know you're going to have a good time while you're playing here, but the team comes first and be careful about when/how/where you do any mingling" I would expect every successful college program to have lots of talks about this - and I would imagine players coach each other as well about how to balance the fun of college and the demands of being an athlete.

AND I would def not have expected them to party the night before homecoming - and I don't think they did. But let's say hypothetically they did, then they're pretty stupid. Even at 20 my goal would be to win the game, so that on saturday night I could paint the town maroon and gold in style. You ace the final - then party. Or you can try to do both and you'll probably fail out. Unless your a comm major.
 



BleedGopher said:
The team stays at a hotel the night before home games to avoid this very scenario.

Go Gophers!!
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This.

The OP is referring to an era of college football that would be aptly described by movies such as The Program. That is just so far ancient history .... not a thing, nowadays.
 

holereader said:
The personal foul in the 4th quarter on the late hit out if bounds (in addition to being just a completely bone head play) left a very problematic vapor trail. That was a three and out for the defense with Purdue punting from deep in their own end. Game was still tied at that point and nothing positive happened after that boneheaded play.
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I think your timing is off with that play. It happened right before half time and consequently it extended the Boilermakers possession and didn't allow us a chance to do anything once we got the ball back before the half.

Stupid play as he was clearly OOB and the play just added to the already pathetic first half performance.
 
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fmlizard said:
Every team has down games. Sometimes there's enough of a talent gap to overcome it, like Georgia almost losing to Mizzou, or Bama almost losing to a pedestrian Texas squad. It happened in 2019 when the Gophers could have lost to any of their non-P5 foes, but didn't because there was just enough of an edge.

Minnesota doesn't have enough of a gap over Purdue to:

a. be missing their RB1 and WR1
b. give away 10 easy points on a dropped TD and short FG
c. turn the ball over 3 times
d. have a call go against them that cost 4 more points
e. come out visibly flat

...and still win the game.
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Lots of good comments in this thread, but this is the one that resonated with me the most. I'm guessing Minnesota finishes with a better record than PU, but the gap in talent isn't huge. Minnesota played poorly on O, caught a couple bad breaks, and probably regret a few coaching decisions both in terms of gameplan and calls on Saturday. Lots to learn, but this wasn't BG -- it was a close loss to a B1G team that's been right around MN in the standings the past few years. I'm as disappointed as anyone (and was super frustrated all weekend), but I'm still hopeful/confident this can be a special season.
 

Let's also not forget the 2020 game, when the refs literally stole Purdue's late TD away from them.

That kind of karma comes back around. Hind sight, I'd rather lose that 2020 game and win this year, instead
 

MGGopher said:
it was a close loss to a B1G team that's been right around MN in the standings the past few years.
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This is true. It could very well be a loss to the team that wins the Big Ten West. Purdue was two plays away from being 4-0 and likely ranked about 15th. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and are a pretty good team with a solid QB.

This is no where near BG territory. Not within 500 miles of that.

Doesn't mean we can't be upset, or sad that the Gophers lost a terribly winnable game.

But, people suggesting things like this is the same old Gophers - just like Bowling Green - stop it.

If MBS catches the TD and Trickett makes the 28 yarder, we are ahead 20-10 after our third quarter TD and likely well on our way. But, weird stuff happens. And, that led to a loss.
 
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Outcoached from the start.

We got the ball first... Run for a loss, run for a small gain, 3rd down incomplete, punt. (Seriously, this is homecoming, and the game is really important because of the exposure we have been getting, but we come out passive)

First defensive series... They dink and dunk, we miss 5 or 6 tackles, it was obvious we didn't plan for what the scripted on the first series. They score. Then seems the whole team started getting deflated.

Defense ends up playing great for most of the rest of the game, we claw our way back and tie it.

Then Fleck starts milking the clock... like we were in the lead. One series I remember specifically, we got a nice 15 yard completion and then the next two plays were run, run, then incomplete on 3rd and long and punt. It's like the coaches had no sense of urgency at all. Almost a cocky vibe like... "They can't stop us!" even though we couldn't run the ball for shit.

Then finally our defense breaks... Then the sense of urgency finally pop into Fleck's head... but now Purdue is ready for the passes. Mistakes ensue. Game Over.
 

RolGnav said:
Outcoached from the start.

We got the ball first... Run for a loss, run for a small gain, 3rd down incomplete, punt. (Seriously, this is homecoming, and the game is really important because of the exposure we have been getting, but we come out passive)

First defensive series... They dink and dunk, we miss 5 or 6 tackles, it was obvious we didn't plan for what the scripted on the first series. They score. Then seems the whole team started getting deflated.

Defense ends up playing great for most of the rest of the game, we claw our way back and tie it.

Then Fleck starts milking the clock... like we were in the lead. One series I remember specifically, we got a nice 15 yard completion and then the next two plays were run, run, then incomplete on 3rd and long and punt. It's like the coaches had no sense of urgency at all. Almost a cocky vibe like... "They can't stop us!" even though we couldn't run the ball for shit.

Then finally our defense breaks... Then the sense of urgency finally pop into Fleck's head... but now Purdue is ready for the passes. Mistakes ensue. Game Over.
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Interesting you equate three opening plays where Purdue defense played better than our offense as being out coached.

Or when we missed a lot of tackles on their opening drive you think we were also out coached because the plays were scripted and our coaches didn't have the script? Wonder how we had anyone close enough to miss a tackle when we were fooled so badly on where plays were going.

Outplayed does not automatically translate to out coached.
 

RolGnav said:
Outcoached from the start.

We got the ball first... Run for a loss, run for a small gain, 3rd down incomplete, punt. (Seriously, this is homecoming, and the game is really important because of the exposure we have been getting, but we come out passive)

First defensive series... They dink and dunk, we miss 5 or 6 tackles, it was obvious we didn't plan for what the scripted on the first series. They score. Then seems the whole team started getting deflated.

Defense ends up playing great for most of the rest of the game, we claw our way back and tie it.

Then Fleck starts milking the clock... like we were in the lead. One series I remember specifically, we got a nice 15 yard completion and then the next two plays were run, run, then incomplete on 3rd and long and punt. It's like the coaches had no sense of urgency at all. Almost a cocky vibe like... "They can't stop us!" even though we couldn't run the ball for shit.

Then finally our defense breaks... Then the sense of urgency finally pop into Fleck's head... but now Purdue is ready for the passes. Mistakes ensue. Game Over.
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Defense kept us in the game.

Purdue is by far the biggest passing team in the West and they got AOC (game time decision) back to lead it. They did not score a passing TD, the first time that had happened since 2018. (I believe I read this somewhere)


I mean hell ... until they break that big run that leads to their last score ... the damn game is still only 13-10. If we got the ball back, just have to get into FG range, tie it up, and go for OT. Still a chance


Then as you said, suddenly it's like "Oh s___" and Tanner forces the long throw that gets picked.
 

They came out determined to run the ball on us and to stop our running game. They executed.
 

DanvilleGopher said:
Hmmm... both had 4th down and 1 attempts from our own 29 that failed (I think both in the 1st quarter...)
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Correct.
And we had a 4th and 1 attempt vs tOSU from our 39 in game 1 last year as well. Mo ripped it for 56 yds.
 

Buck_Buchanan said:
Correct.
And we had a 4th and 1 attempt vs tOSU from our 39 in game 1 last year as well. Mo ripped it for 56 yds.
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In the Ohio St game though they were down 10-0. Totally understood that one. Down 3 scores would have been lights out vs the Buckeyes.

If Mo had been available for the Bowling Green or Purdue games, still not sure I would agree with the move but I would be far less critical.
 
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Buck_Buchanan said:
Correct.
And we had a 4th and 1 attempt vs tOSU from our 39 in game 1 last year as well. Mo ripped it for 56 yds.
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Incorrect.
It was from our 29 also.... wow, can you believe that? PJ really likes going for it at that yard line. Circumstances were different as they were down 10-0 and Ohio State had scored on their possessions.

I'm not sure we had to worry about getting blown out by BG or Purdue.
 

Dakota2 said:
Interesting you equate three opening plays where Purdue defense played better than our offense as being out coached.

Or when we missed a lot of tackles on their opening drive you think we were also out coached because the plays were scripted and our coaches didn't have the script? Wonder how we had anyone close enough to miss a tackle when we were fooled so badly on where plays were going.

Outplayed does not automatically translate to out coached.
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It's funny how you think I equate being outcoached as each play working or not working.

What I meant, which I thought should have been easily understood, is that we just came out passive. Almost as if we thought we could have our way with Purdue. So we game planned that way. I used the opening offensive and defensive drive as an example of that. And again, even after tying it.. we fell back to being passive again.
 

RolGnav said:
Outcoached from the start.

We got the ball first... Run for a loss, run for a small gain, 3rd down incomplete, punt. (Seriously, this is homecoming, and the game is really important because of the exposure we have been getting, but we come out passive)

First defensive series... They dink and dunk, we miss 5 or 6 tackles, it was obvious we didn't plan for what the scripted on the first series. They score. Then seems the whole team started getting deflated.

Defense ends up playing great for most of the rest of the game, we claw our way back and tie it.

Then Fleck starts milking the clock... like we were in the lead. One series I remember specifically, we got a nice 15 yard completion and then the next two plays were run, run, then incomplete on 3rd and long and punt. It's like the coaches had no sense of urgency at all. Almost a cocky vibe like... "They can't stop us!" even though we couldn't run the ball for shit.

Then finally our defense breaks... Then the sense of urgency finally pop into Fleck's head... but now Purdue is ready for the passes. Mistakes ensue. Game Over.
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Compare this opening offensive series to the one against Sparty.
 

DanvilleGopher said:
Hmmm... both had 4th down and 1 attempts from our own 29 that failed (I think both
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holereader said:
The personal foul in the 4th quarter on the late hit out if bounds (in addition to being just a completely bone head play) left a very problematic vapor trail. That was a three and out for the defense with Purdue punting from deep in their own end. Game was still tied at that point and nothing positive happened after that boneheaded play.
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I agree that boneheaded plays often leave a vapor trail (nice image!) that has a deleterious effect on successive plays and on player morale. I believe that costly, boneheaded coaching decisions, such as going for it on 4th down on your own 29 yard line, can have the a similar deleterious effect. Costly misplays and bad decisions like this aren't just shucked off as if they didn't happen; their miasma lingers and can affect the team for several plays to come. Self-inflicted wounds are a great way to cement a loss. Purdue beat us on the scoreboard, but much of the beating we suffered was self-inflicted.
 

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