Land Grant Holy Land: B1G Thoughts: Five questions for Minnesota

BleedGopher

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per Land Grant Holy Land:

What boost will the return of Mo Ibrahim bring?

Entering 2021, the Golden Gophers had arguably the best — or at minimum the most proven — running back in the Big Ten. That was shown with an emphatic performance in the first game of the season. Before a devastating injury that ended his season, Ibrahim was on a tour de force with 30 carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State. It was almost a guarantee without injury he would have run for 200-plus and maybe Minnesota wins the game.

Losing your star running back in the first game of the season can take the fight out of a team, yet Minnesota kept believing and stayed resilient on their way to an 8-4 season. Ibrahim was the first of many losses in the running back room, as Minnesota played a total of five running backs in 2021 due to injury.

How will they replace four starters on the offensive line?

In most cases, having to play five different running backs due to injury in one season is a sign of a down year. That is unless you have an offensive line that is full of experienced starters and multiple future NFL Draft picks. Not only was the Gophers line experienced, but they were also massive. If you watched any of their games, you would constantly see the comparison of their height and weights compared to NFL starting offensive lines.

Unfortunately for Fleck and Ibrahim, the Gophers are losing four starters: Sam Schluete, Conner Olson Blaise Andries, and Daniel Faalele. Faalele may have the most name recognition, but all four starters played over 90% of the snaps last season. Replacing four starters is a tall task, but any hope for 2022 begins with building a new offensive line that can lead the way for Ibrahim and protect Tanner Morgan.

Can the return of Kirk Ciarrocca improve the offense and Tanner Morgan?

Minnesota’s offense over the last few seasons has been a liability and unreliable — see the Bowling Green game, which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. Instead of hiring someone brand new, Fleck decided to get the band back together by bringing back former OC Kirk Ciarrocca, who left after the 2019 season to coach at Penn State.

Ciarrocca was the offensive coordinator for Minnesota’s best season ever, going 11-2 and barely missing the Big Ten West Championship. This season coincided with Tanner Morgan’s best season in Minneapolis, throwing for 3,532 yards and 30 touchdowns with a 66% completion percentage. Overall, under Ciarrocca, Morgan broke multiple records, but he has struggled to recapture the magic after his departure. Fleck knows this is the last season with Morgan and Ibrahim. This hire is him placing a bet that Ciarrocca can recapture the magic. This offseason will be critical to answering the question of whether or not that is in the cards.


Will the defense carry its success into 2022?

Last season, the Gophers had one of the best defenses in the nation. They limited teams to 97.5 yards rushing and 181.2 passing yards per game good — for seventh and ninth in the nation, respectively. They were also top 10 in scoring defense, allowing a measly 17.3 points per game. Great defense is one of the hardest things to carry over season to season, but Fleck will be hoping to maintain their defensive success in 2022. Even if they’re not top 10 in every category but can maintain a top 20 or 30 defense, they may be able to leverage that into their first Big Ten title game appearance.


How did they lose to Bowling Green and how to avoid similar upsets?

Under most cases 8-4 seasons are worth celebrating. The Golden Gophers finished second in the Big Ten West, beat their rival Wisconsin and went to their third bowl game under Fleck, improving to 3-0 in postseason appearances. Yet, there is a nagging feeling that Fleck’s squad underperformed. That is largely due to two unacceptable losses to Bowling Green and Illinois.

Under the guidance of former OC Mike Sanford Jr., their offense never showed up in those games, losing 14-10 to Bowling Green and 14-6 to Illinois. Scoring 16 total points against two of the worst opponents on your schedule can lead to an uneasiness that permeates the fan base. Minnesota should have finished the season 10-2, but instead had to settle for 8-4. Maybe it’s as simple as getting Ibrahim back or Ciarrocca, but Fleck will have to figure out firstly why his team played down to their opponents, and secondly how to avoid shocking losses like that in 2022 and beyond.


Go Gophers!!
 


Key words are “playing down to opponents,” Stop doing that. Open the playbook. Blow out inferior and/overmatched opponents. Leave them in the dust. Don’t let them hang around all game so that the outcome is uncertain with 5 minutes left. Key: offense, if actually superior to opposing defense, must have a plan to punish a defense that has 8 guys living in the box blitzing from all angles. If you have superior talent, then short, quick hitting passes can turn into long TDs against these high-risk, gambling defenses. Running the ball 70% of the time against such defenses, with slow developing passes as the backstop, equals offensive stagnation … and intellectual capitulation. The book on the ‘20 and ‘21 Gophers was out there and BG simply followed instructions, hoping the Gopher’s brittle offense wouldn’t adjust strategy or personnel.
 
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Solid analysis for an outside rag. Gophers were 9-4!
 

2019 was not minnesotas best season ever.
Best season of the TV era though.
 


To avoid BG type disasters in the future, it is OK to mix things up a bit when Plan A isn’t working. Lots of well coached teams go it. The Gophers super slow down offense, in addition to being predictable (both as to play calling and the moment of snap) yet chaotic, robs the offense of chances to score against inferior teams. The Gophers ran only 57 offensive plays against BG. The Gophers averaged 67.4 offensive plays per game in 2021 (101st in FCS). Kansas State averaged 58.1 plays per game in 2021, for dead last in FCS football (#130). Please don’t slow down the offense to frozen molasses pace against inferior teams … unless you have a big lead already and are just playing keep away. Give the offense more not fewer opportunities to win the game.
 
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Two ways to look at playing inferior competition. #1 - Get better at what we do well to help us become elite. #2 - open up the playbook and try new things to see if we can open up new wrinkles in the offense with the talent we have.

In 2019 I would say the Gophers did a combination of #1 and #2 - they did a lot of what we do and were somewhat vanilla. However, it was also during these games they tried outside zone blocking and that went so well it became a part of our offense the rest of the year. In 2020 and 2021 I can't say I every saw Sanford try something new scheme wise. It seemed everything we ran was vanilla. In fact it always seemed to be run mid range routes and run the ball is all we could ever do.
 




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