How Good Can The Gophers Be?

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Duluthguy

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By now most of us have read the dire predictions from all of the experts for the Gophers' upcoming season, and many of us have chimed in with our own prognostications. However, focusing solely on assumptions and expectations, in football and all of life, misses what's possible. Therefore, let's view the season from another perspective: If the coaches do a "tremendous" job preparing the players and create solid game plans for each game, and if the players prepare and execute with discipline and maximum effort, how many games could this team win? Everyone says the team has plenty of talent. What happens if it achieves the full potential of that talent? What's the best case scenario?
 

They could be 12-0, technically. If they play flawless football, we should expect 12-0.

Add in the random bounces of the football and bad officiating, even a flawless football team can only really expect to win 11. If a team goes undefeated, there is always some good fortune involved.

Add in the fact that the opposing teams are also variables. Say a better team also plays a flawless game. That knocks us down a notch, maybe two (given our schedule).

All things considered, if the Gophers played damn-near flawless football, we should see 9 wins, minimum. Could be as high as 12 with a little luck added in.
 

Vandelay Industries has expanded their business interests and we now have a full-time bookie on staff at our Las Vegas offices.

The over/under on Gopher victories this season is 5.5.
 

Best Case?

9 wins. No matter how much kool-aid I chug or how many times I beat them on NCAA 11, I just don't see us beating tOSU, PSU, or USC. Other than that, I think it's possible to beat any other team on our schedule. The one that really seems like it's ripe for the picking are the popcorn box skunks from that state to the east.
 

Maybe put it from 1-10, where 1 is not surprising at all, and 10 is a reality bending shock. Georgia State - which just added football - beating Alabama would be a solid 10. For us to beat USC, OSU or PSU would cause some serious eyebrow raising, but would maybe be a 7 - highly suprising, but not enough to make you look around for Rod Serling to see if this is a twilight zone episode.

For us to go 12-0, maybe an 8.5+

It's just so hard to answer because so little is known now. If the defense remains about as good, and the offense is a bit better, we could surprise.
 


If we catch every break and everyone lives up to there potential this year 12-0 is just barely possible as long as our opponents get no breaks. If some of our opponents don't have answers in the areas of question I see 9-3 or 10-2 as more realistic. I can't see us beating OSU or USC. PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin all either have thin spots,, or questions that could allow us to go into those games even. Assuming we go 2-1 in those games I can see 9-3 and 6-2 in conference.
 



We're just drinking the pure water of fact. None of us are predicting 12-0, but it's not quite impossible. The thing is, we're being asked what the best possible record is, without any limits on what is meant by "possible".
 



I have no idea.

6 wins overall, with 3 in the conference, leaves us dangling our coach though.

So I'm hoping for better or worse outcomes..
 

If the defense stays the same, and the offense improves at all, we have a great chance at 7-5 and 8-4 would be a dream season with this team and schedule. If the offense doesn't get on track in the first game, 6-6 will be the best we can do.
 

1959 2-7
1960 8-2......National Champs

What the hell
 

Studwell55 said:
I have no idea.

6 wins overall, with 3 in the conference, leaves us dangling our coach though.

So I'm hoping for better or worse outcomes..
Click to expand...

We'd all like there to be some certainty as to whether or not Brewster is the answer to our prayers.
 



Love the forced optimism in this thread. Here's my two cents.

(1) I believe we can feasibly beat every team on our schedule;
(2) I believe it is 99% unlikely that we will beat every team on our schedule;
(3) I believe we can feasibly lose to every team on our schedule (see scoring issues we had last year);
(4) I believe it is 95% unlikely that we will lose to every team on our schedule;

That being said, I expect about 6 wins with a realistic absolute best case scenario of 9 wins if everything falls our way (without adding in a bowl win). I can't convince myself that we'll win more than 2 games out of tOSU, PSU, USC, Iowa at home, nor can I convince myself that we'll go undeafed on the road.

That being said, this year more than ever, I could also see the Gophers winning and losing games they shouldn't normally win or lose (i.e. losing to Northern ILL but beating USC, losing to MTSU but beating tOSU, etc.).
 

Looking at the schedule, Id say Gophers get 8 wins, depending on the bowl could reach 9.

@Middle Tennessee State W

South Dakota W

Southern California L

Northern Illinois W

Northwestern W

@Wisconsin W

@Purdue L (Could be a win, but second game in a row on the road, after no doubt a very tough game @Madison, this one could be tough)

Penn State L

Ohio State L

@Michigan State W

@Illinois W

Iowa W (Hopefully coming into this with that 2 game winning streak on the road, arriving back home, momentum, hopefully knock off Iowa.)
 

Well, there is only one game on the schedule that I see as a sure loss. That is Ohio State, they will be this year's national champion and I don't think (barring serious injury) anyone can touch the Buckeyes.

After that, I see every game as a winnable game. I would say best case scenario is 10 games, with 9 being the highest win total the Gophers could have before surprise would turn to outright shock at the tenth win (at this point Gerry Dinardo would start swilling whisky straight from the bottle, Lou Holtz would go into full out Daffie DUck mode, Mark May will find a way to claim this is a sign of the weakness of the Big Ten, and Robert Smith will take back his ridiculous assertion that it's too hard to recruit in Minnesota. Penn State has serious offensive line issues and may have the worst qb play in the conference, they come here, Wisconsin is going to have D line issues without OB Scho, they have questionable corners, and who is playing safety opposite Jay Valai in place of maragos? Also, if phillips can't make it back they have no qb depth. Iowa has O-line issues, ricky stanzi with the good and the interceptions all rolled into one package, and questions in teh secondary, they also come here, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, and Northwestern all have serious question marks as we do, Illinois, and possibly purdue even more so, remember Northwestern lost 3/4 of a very solid secondary. They don't reload in the back 4 at northwestern.

USC has no reason to care about anything other than their pac-ten slate (as they can't be ranked in most polls, or play in the postseason). I would not be surprised if they laid an egg out here.

I am on the positive side predicting 7 or 8 wins. But I would say in this best case scenario the ceiling is 9 or 10 wins with some combination of 2-3 losses among USC, Ohio State, PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and wins everywhere else. That will occur if the O-line is better than last year (as they looked to be in the spring game), Weber is as good as advertised in the Manning Camp, and he responds well to the improved O-line's work in the run and pass game, an RB steps up to be at least decent, the Backers are better due to experience of Tinsley, Coop, etc., the increased athleticism, depth, and overall speed of the unit. The D-line is somewhat better this year--with similar to slightly better play on the run (particularly at D-end), and more of a pass rush from the front 4, the secondary stays healthy, and Carter and Collado are every bit as good as they were promising to be this spring. Also, McKnight needs to be the clear #1 and someone, anyone else needs to be a decent #2 WR (Green, BA, TS, XB, ?)

So, a lot of things would have to break our way for 9 or 10 wins, but even if only a handful of those things do, this year will be better than the last couple with a possible 7 or 8 Ws.
 

Best case: 6 wins...3 Big Ten & 3 non-conference. Most likely: 5 wins...2 Big Ten & 3 non-conference. Worst case: 4 wins...1 Big Ten & 3 non-conference.
 

AhliBobwa said:
Well, there is only one game on the schedule that I see as a sure loss. That is Ohio State, they will be this year's national champion and I don't think (barring serious injury) anyone can touch the Buckeyes.
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What!? OHIO!?!? they'll get pushed into the national championship, just because of the media hype, but we've seen over the past Decade, that the big ten is not fast enough at the skills positions to keep up with the big 12, or sec.. I honestly don't think that ohio could take another stomping from an SEC team in the NC game. It's not their fault though that they don't belong on the big stage.. They can't help that the BCS is flawed..

look at all their hyped players who aren't really panning out. Ginn, bum. Troy smith, bum, laurinaitis, bum. beanie wells - we'll see.
 

"That is Ohio State, they will be this year's national champion "

I predict they will finish 3rd. A big disappointment.
 

Best case scenario: 7 wins. Worst case: 3 wins (South Dakota, Northwestern, Iowa). Crucial is whether we can run or not - last year's pony backs won't make it. Edwards or another new player has to come through or we'll have a replay of last year.
 

I will let you know after the sixth game of the season. Right now we have virtually no positive information on which to make any happy predictions.
 

Only 3 sure losses.

USC, OSU and Wisconsin. No chance with those. Probably Iowa as well. Looking 7 wins max in my opinion.
 

Real Happy with 7 Wins

I disagree with some who say we can't beat some teams on our schedule. In my opinion, we can beat any of the teams we play. As most everyone is saying it's just not realistic to actually accomplish that. I think it is also true that every team on our schedule can beat us and that makes a great test.

Northern Illinois received a vote for the recently released USA Top 25. Middle Tennessee considers themselves a Top 25 team after a 10 win season last year. Those are two of our gimmees.

Very difficult schedule! I'd be real happy with 7 wins. Especially if Iowa and Wisconsin are two of those wins.... they are in top half of the Top 25 poll.
 

If the Gophs would have had any offense at all last year I think the Penn State and Iowa games could have had a different outcomes. If they can be average on offense this year and the defense stays status quo there is no reason they can't win 7 to 8 games with the possibility of a couple more with some good bounces.
 

tds2n said:
What!? OHIO!?!?...I honestly don't think that ohio could take another stomping from an SEC team in the NC game.
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That's all well and good, but he was talking about Ohio St., not Ohio. Pretty sure the Bobcats have never played in the NC, certainly not against an SEC team.
 

tds2n said:
What!? OHIO!?!? they'll get pushed into the national championship, just because of the media hype, but we've seen over the past Decade, that the big ten is not fast enough at the skills positions to keep up with the big 12, or sec..
Click to expand...

First of all, anyone who thinks the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten from top to bottom hasn't been watching very closely.

This post is TOO funny. You do know that Ohio State WON the NC in 2003? Pretty sure that's well within the last decade. And if Ted Ginn didn't get hurt while scoring a 90+ yard TD in the first 7 seconds of that NC game, my guess is Ohio State does pretty well (without Ginn the Safeties crowded the box mercilessly)

The SEC has had a good last few years, but the Big Ten has an even bowl record against the SEC the last decade. So...yeah.

Whatever, Ohio State wins the NC, the Big Ten wins 2 BCS games, and the Big Ten returns to its rightful place atop the CFB pantheon.

Oh, yeah, and the Gophers win 7-8 games!
 

Best Case Scenario: 13 wins
Worst Case Scenario: 0 wins

Anyone who claims to know how this team is going to do is merely speculating. How this team performs depends a ton on the performance of certain players (which is nearly impossible to predict). If the young defense comes along quickly and Weber plays like he has when he is at his best...they are conference title contenders RIGHT NOW. If the young defense doesn't get going quickly and Weber plays inconsistently (poorly)....this could be a 1-2 win team.
 

Dpodoll, Hope you're not trying to pick on my Bobcats! When I was a freshman they went winless; when I was a senior they were undefeated during the regular season. However, that was back around the time the Gophers last won a Big Ten title. Coincidence???
 

Jdogg0821 said:
Only 3 sure losses.

USC, OSU and Wisconsin. No chance with those. Probably Iowa as well. Looking 7 wins max in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Anything can happen. The one thing we can't say is that there is NO chance. Who knows if USC will be in disarray or not, might be a chance to pick them off when they are down. And Wisconsin, the last three years, we have lost to them by 3, 3 and 7 points, so you can't say there is no chance. And Iowa, with some offensive performance, we might have taken them last year.
 

Iowa sat on the ball the entire second half. They refused to let their freshman QB beat them by throwing a pick. No need for even a single extra point if you know the other team can not score. The score flattered the hell out of us.
 

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