Here’s The Deal … Minnesota is returning the favor after hosting the Trojans in the bright, shiny TCF Bank Stadium last year. The Gophers hung around in a 32-21 loss, showing more heart than it did in the loss to South Dakota the previous week, and that was about it for the fun until mid-November with a nine-game losing streak pushing Tim Brewster out the door. Enter Jerry Kill, who recreated Northern Illinois and made it a MAC power and now brings his terrific offensive mind to the Gophers as he tries to jump-start a sleepy program with a fan base that’ll go crazy with a little bit of success. However, going to USC, even against a wounded USC, is no way to kick off an era.
There’s no pressure on Kill right away to come up with big things, but if USC doesn’t start off the season with an impressive blowout, the panic sirens will go off. Everyone understands that the program is now feeling the full effects of the NCAA sanctions, and it’s understood that it’s going to be a while before things have a chance to get back to normal, but after struggling in the season-ending win over UCLA and after losing to Oregon State and Notre Dame in ugly fashion – albeit in very different ways, with a blowout against the Beavers and dropped passes against the Irish – a big performance right out of the gate is a must. Pac-12 play kicks off the week after against Utah, and while USC might not be USC again, this is the week to show that things haven’t dropped off too much.
Why Minnesota Might Win: Will USC quit? It’s a harsh suggestion that the Trojans gave up last year, and they showed fight at time when there was really nothing to play for, but considering they had as much talent as anyone in the conference, they were way too flaky. Consistency and focus wasn’t always a plus at USC even with it ruled the world under Pete Carroll, and now all the pressure in the world is on the team to start out well even with all the allowable excuses. If things go badly early on, will the Trojans have the ability to handle the adversity? It didn’t happen last year in tight situations, and Minnesota is just good enough on both sides of the ball to hang around, hang around, hang around, and then wait for the one big break. The Gophers have a good enough receiving corps to take advantage of a secondary that has talent, but didn’t produce nearly as well as it should’ve.
Why USC Might Win: Can the Minnesota offensive line give the skill players time to work? Line play was the key to Kill’s Northern Illinois teams, but he has to revamp a front five that only gets two starters back from a line that was great in pass protection, but didn’t do enough for the running game. The USC defensive line might be the team’s biggest strength and it should be able to gum up the works against the Gopher running game. Meanwhile, Matt Barkley and the Trojan offense should get all the time in the world against a Minnesota defensive front that isn’t going to get into the backfield. The Minnesota secondary will be good, but it’s not going to get a ton of help from the front seven and Barkley - who came up with an averaged 17-of-26, 192-yard, two touchdown, two pick day in last year’s wins over the Gophers – should put up huge numbers.
What To Watch Out For: Minnesota might have the biggest X factor in the game in MarQueis Gray, who has gone through a rocky road to become the starting quarterback. One the nation’s top dual-threat spread quarterbacks coming out of high school, first he wasn’t eligible, then the offense changed from the spread, and then he was moved to wide receiver for a stretch. The 6-4, 229-pound junior has tremendous athleticism, a live arm, and the talent and ability to have been an Elite 11 Quarterback camper in high school. After missing his senior year of high school with a broken arm, several schools soured on him, Minnesota kept calling, and now he might be the franchise. It’s a huge, huge reach to call him a possible Cam Newton, but he has the same athleticism, great size, and he’s in the right offense to work his skills. This could be his national coming out party.
What Will Happen: Minnesota won't look like the Minnesota of old, but it still won't be enough. The Gopher defense will be plucky early on and will keep the game within reach, and then the USC lines will take over and then the game will start to get out of hand. The USC ground game will be fine, but it'll be Barkley who puts up the big numbers as he hits on third down play after third down play to keep the Trojans in control. Gray will look great at times, but he'll try to do too much forcing two costly mistakes.
CFN Prediction: USC 38 ... Minnesota 21
